Gold Continues Downward Trend Amid Improving US-China Relations

By 05:14 ET (09:14 GMT), spot gold had fallen 0.5% to $2,359.67 per ounce, while gold futures dropped 0.6% to $2,364.35. Both measurements are now headed toward weekly losses of approximately 2%.

Diplomatic Developments Shift Market Sentiment

The pullback in precious metals follows reports that Washington and Beijing are arranging a meeting between President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at November’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru. This potential diplomatic engagement signals progress in relations between the two economic superpowers.

Additionally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen characterized her recent discussions with Chinese officials as “constructive,” further suggesting an improvement in bilateral relations that had been strained in recent years.

The easing tensions diminished immediate safe-haven demand for gold, which had recently benefited from geopolitical uncertainties and economic concerns.

Federal Reserve Policy Remains Central to Market Outlook

Beyond geopolitical factors, precious metals markets continue to be heavily influenced by expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy. Recent economic indicators have painted a mixed picture of the U.S. economy.

While Thursday’s GDP data showed better-than-expected economic growth, suggesting resilience, other metrics indicate potential weakening in labor markets and consumer spending. This conflicting information complicates the outlook for interest rate adjustments.

Markets are currently anticipating the Fed will implement at least one 25 basis point rate reduction by year-end, with additional easing expected in 2025. However, the timing and magnitude of these cuts remain uncertain.

“The lack of clarity on the Fed’s next move is creating volatility in the gold market, as traders adjust positions based on shifting economic signals,” market analysts noted.

Broader Precious Metals Market Shows Weakness

The downward trend extended across the precious metals sector. Silver futures decreased by 0.7% to $27.527 per ounce, while platinum futures fell 0.6% to $922.25.

Copper futures managed to buck the trend slightly, rising 0.3% to $4.0870 per pound. The industrial metal’s relative strength reflects its different market dynamics, being more closely tied to manufacturing and economic growth expectations than to safe-haven demand.

Despite the current pullback, gold prices remain significantly higher for the year, supported by ongoing central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainties in various regions, and expectations of an eventual shift toward looser monetary policy across major economies.

Outlook for Remainder of 2024

Market participants are now focusing on upcoming U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, due later on Friday. This release could provide additional insights into potential monetary policy directions.

Analysts suggest that while short-term volatility may persist, fundamental factors including central bank purchases, ongoing geopolitical risks, and anticipated interest rate cuts could provide support for precious metals in the medium term.

“The market is essentially recalibrating after a strong performance earlier this year. Current price action appears more reflective of profit-taking and position adjustments rather than a fundamental shift in the longer-term outlook,” industry experts commented.