UK Oil Major's Quarterly Earnings Fall Short As Strategic Reset Begins

British petroleum giant BP revealed weaker-than-anticipated financial results for the first quarter of 2025, reporting underlying replacement cost profit—the industry’s preferred metric for net earnings—of $1.38 billion for January through March. This figure fell short of market expectations of $1.6 billion according to analyst consensus compiled by LSEG.

The Q1 performance represents a substantial decline from the $2.7 billion profit recorded during the same period last year, though it shows modest improvement from the $1.2 billion reported in the final quarter of 2024. This earnings disappointment comes during a period of significant strategic realignment and amid growing pressure from activist investors.

BP CEO Murray Auchincloss told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday that the firm was “off to a great start” in delivering on its strategic reset.

“We had a great operational quarter. We had our highest upstream operating efficiency in history. Our refineries in the first quarter ran at the best they’ve run in 24 years. We had six exploration discoveries in a row, which is really unusual and we started out three major projects,” Auchincloss said.

Strategic Pivot and Shareholder Rewards

The latest quarterly results arrive less than two months after the energy corporation announced a significant strategic realignment in February, pledging to reduce investment in renewable energy while increasing annual expenditure on its traditional oil and gas operations. This pivot represented a notable departure from the company’s previously announced climate ambitions.

Despite the profit decline, BP maintained its commitment to shareholder returns, announcing a quarterly dividend of 8 cents per ordinary share and a share buyback program of $750 million for the quarter. These shareholder rewards come as the company attempts to rebuild investor confidence following years of underperformance compared to industry peers.

Financial data revealed that the company’s net debt increased to $26.97 billion in the first quarter, up substantially from $22.99 billion at the end of 2024. This rising debt level had been previously signaled by management, who warned investors to expect lower upstream production and higher debt in Q1 compared to the previous quarter.

The market responded negatively to the results, with BP shares declining 2.8% by mid-afternoon London trading, though this represented a partial recovery from steeper losses earlier in the session.

Mounting Activist Pressure

The energy major faces intensifying pressure from activist investors, including prominent hedge fund Elliott Management, which publicly disclosed a stake exceeding 5% in the London-listed company last week. This disclosure established the American investment firm as BP’s second-largest shareholder, trailing only BlackRock, according to data from LSEG.

Market speculation about Elliott’s involvement began circulating in February, triggering a share price rally amid expectations that the activist fund would push BP to accelerate its pivot back toward fossil fuel operations. This pressure comes despite the company’s February announcement that already represented a significant scaling back of renewable energy ambitions.

When questioned about interactions with activist investors and whether BP faced pressure to extend its strategic shift beyond February’s announced plans, Auchincloss declined to comment specifically on shareholder discussions.

Signs of investor dissatisfaction were evident earlier this month when the company faced a significant shareholder rebellion at its annual general meeting. Nearly a quarter (24.3%) of investors voted against the re-election of outgoing Chair Helge Lund, a symbolic rebuke reflecting widespread frustration among the company’s shareholder base. Lund is expected to step down from his leadership position next year.

Takeover Speculation and Market Position

BP’s persistent underperformance relative to industry competitors such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Shell has fueled speculation about the company potentially becoming an acquisition target. Energy market analysts remain divided, however, on whether any of the most likely potential acquirers would pursue such a significant transaction.

Addressing this speculation, Auchincloss stated that he wouldn’t comment on whether the company is considered a takeover target, but confirmed that BP had not requested protective measures from the British government.

“What I will say is we’re a strong, independent company and we’ve got sector-leading growth. And if we can deliver the sector-leading growth, and the first quarter is a fantastic example of that, then I have no concerns. I think we’re going to do great,” Auchincloss said.

Oil Price Environment and Forward Outlook

The profit decline comes amid a challenging oil price environment, with international benchmark Brent crude futures trading at approximately $65.19 per barrel on Tuesday morning, down more than 1% during the session and substantially lower than the roughly $84 per barrel recorded one year ago. This price compression has created headwinds for the entire energy sector.

When questioned whether weaker crude prices might jeopardize some of the company’s reset plans, Auchincloss expressed confidence in BP’s diversified revenue structure.

“Not really. We have a balance of products that we think about that generate revenue for us. So, oil, natural gas and refined products as well,” he explained.

Looking forward, the energy major faces the dual challenge of implementing its strategic realignment while navigating the shifting energy landscape and addressing concerns from a shareholder base increasingly divided between those pushing for accelerated returns from traditional hydrocarbon operations and others advocating for greater emphasis on climate considerations.

The company’s leadership transition adds another layer of complexity to this situation, as the process to identify Lund’s successor as chair will likely become a focal point for competing visions regarding the energy giant’s future direction and priorities.