Pocket Option: Detailed SHB Stock Analysis
SHB stock has experienced strong fluctuations in the recent quarter, ranging from 11,900 to 14,200 VND, causing many Vietnamese investors to hesitate. Analyzing and evaluating SHB stock is an urgent task to help you seize investment opportunities or preserve capital during this challenging market period.
Overview of SHB Stock and Current Position
Saigon - Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank (SHB) ranks 5th in terms of total assets among private commercial banks in Vietnam. SHB has gone through 28 years of development with a network of 530 transaction points domestically and internationally. The notable point is that this stock has just ended a 3-month adjustment period and is showing signs of accumulation in the 12,000-13,000 VND price range.
SHB stock analysis needs to be considered in the context of the Vietnamese banking sector facing pressure from cautious credit growth and fluctuating asset quality. According to data from Pocket Option, SHB is currently attracting special attention from individual investors with a 42% increase in trading volume over the past month.
| Basic Indicators | Current Value | Compared to Previous Quarter | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | 35,720 billion VND | -5.2% | Average within banking group |
| P/E | 11.3 | +0.2 | Attractive (lower than industry average of 15.2) |
| ROE | 15.3% | +0.5% | Quite good, improving trend |
| ROA | 1.28% | +0.08% | Needs improvement (lower than industry average of 1.6%) |
| NIM | 3.35% | +0.15% | Improving, but still lower than leading group |
Technical Analysis of SHB Stock: Important Signals
Are you looking for the ideal entry point? Technical analysis is the key. When analyzing SHB stock from a technical perspective, recent data shows that the stock has formed a "Morning Star" candlestick pattern last week - a potential reversal signal after a prolonged downtrend.
Technical Indicators Guiding Investors
For accurate decisions on SHB stock, you need to monitor the following technical indicators:
- The MA20 line (12,450 VND) is currently an important resistance level to break through
- The RSI indicator has escaped the oversold zone (currently 45.6) and is forming an upward trend
- MACD is forming a signal to cross above the signal line, indicating a potential reversal
- Trading volume has been gradually increasing in the last 5 sessions, confirming returning interest
- Bollinger Bands are narrowing after a long period of expansion, signaling strong upcoming volatility
On the Pocket Option platform, you can set alerts when SHB breaks through MA20 with a surge in volume - this is an important signal for a potential entry point.
| Technical Indicator | Current Value | Recent Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 45.6 | +8.4 (7 days) | Neutral, improving |
| MACD | -0.15 | +0.12 (5 days) | About to form a buy signal (Golden Cross) |
| MA20 vs Price | Price below MA20 (2.3%) | Gap narrowing | Needs to break 12,450 VND |
| MA50 vs Price | Price below MA50 (4.8%) | Stable gap | Needs to break 12,850 VND to change medium-term trend |
| Trading Volume | 4.2 million shares/session | +35% (compared to 10-session average) | Positive signal, money flow returning |
Price Pattern Analysis and Effective Entry Points
In Q2/2024, SHB completed an "inverse head-and-shoulders" pattern with a neckline at 13,200 VND, but failed when retesting this area last month. The stock is currently forming a double bottom pattern with the first bottom at 11,900 VND (19/03) and the second bottom at 12,050 VND (15/04).
The strongest support zone for SHB is currently at 11,800-12,000 VND (coinciding with 61.8% Fibonacci and the March 2024 bottom). Important resistance zones are at 12,450 VND (MA20) and 13,200 VND (neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern). If it breaks above 13,200 VND with large volume, SHB could advance to the target of 14,500-15,000 VND.
Fundamental Analysis: Highlights in SHB's Financial Reports
For accurate SHB stock analysis, you cannot ignore the latest financial figures. SHB has just released its Q1/2024 report with profit before tax reaching 2,470 billion VND, up 12.3% compared to the same period. Notably, the non-performing loan ratio has decreased from 1.78% to 1.62% - a positive signal about risk management.
Business Results Exceeding Expectations
| Indicator | Q1/2024 | Compared to Q1/2023 | 2024 Full-year Forecast | % Plan Completion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | 605,240 billion VND | +2.2% | 650,000 billion VND | 93.1% |
| Credit Balance | 428,650 billion VND | +1.6% | 470,000 billion VND | 91.2% |
| Capital Mobilization | 456,720 billion VND | +1.5% | 498,000 billion VND | 91.7% |
| Profit Before Tax | 2,470 billion VND | +12.3% | 11,500 billion VND | 21.5% |
| NPL Ratio | 1.62% | -0.16% | 1.5% | Getting closer |
The notable point is that SHB's non-interest income has increased by 27.5%, showing that the revenue diversification strategy is paying off. In particular, income from payment services increased by 42.3% - reflecting the success of SHB's digital banking strategy.
Macroeconomic Factors Affecting SHB
How to accurately predict SHB's direction? You need to understand the macroeconomic factors governing the Vietnamese banking market:
- SBV's credit room policy: Q2/2024 received an additional 4-5% room, creating conditions for SHB to expand lending
- GDP growth in Q1 reached 5.66%, higher than expected, supporting credit demand
- Inflation in the first 4 months at 4.1%, putting pressure on interest rate policy
- USD/VND exchange rate fluctuated 3.2% since the beginning of the year, affecting capital costs
- Circular 06/2024/TT-NHNN on capital adequacy ratio will take effect from July 1, 2024, requiring banks to strengthen capital
| Macroeconomic Factor | Current Status | Trend | Impact on SHB |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 5.66% (Q1/2024) | Positive, forecast for the year 6-6.5% | Positive: Increasing credit demand from businesses |
| Inflation | 4.1% (first 4 months) | Slight upward pressure, exceeding 4% target | Short-term negative: May limit ability to reduce interest rates |
| Interbank Interest Rate | 4.25% (overnight) | Stable, may increase slightly at year-end | Neutral: NIM may remain stable |
| USD/VND Exchange Rate | 25,430 (+3.2% YTD) | Upward pressure due to strengthening USD | Negative: Increases capital costs, affects USD debt |
| Advanced Basel II Regulations | Applied from July 1, 2024 | Tighter | Short-term challenge: SHB has plans to increase capital by 5,000 billion |
Pocket Option provides weekly macroeconomic analysis reports, helping you quickly grasp policy changes that may affect SHB. In particular, Pocket Option's "Economic Calendar" tool will alert you to important events such as Fed interest rate announcements or Vietnam's macroeconomic data.
Comparing SHB with Competitors: What is the Competitive Advantage?
Before making an investment decision, you need to know where SHB stands compared to its competitors. Below is a detailed comparison table with banks in the same segment:
| Indicator (Q1/2024) | SHB | ACB | VPB | TCB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.3 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 8.1 |
| P/B | 1.22 | 1.81 | 1.28 | 1.42 |
| ROE | 15.3% | 21.8% | 17.9% | 19.7% |
| Profit Growth (YoY) | +12.3% | +15.2% | +24.7% | +20.3% |
| CIR (Cost/Income) | 34.8% | 29.3% | 32.1% | 30.4% |
| CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio) | 11.4% | 13.4% | 12.9% | 14.1% |
| NPL Ratio | 1.62% | 1.25% | 2.84% | 1.12% |
Through the comparison table, SHB's biggest competitive advantage is attractive valuation with the lowest P/B in the group. However, SHB needs to improve ROE and profit growth rate to narrow the gap with ACB and TCB. The positive point is that SHB's NPL ratio is better than VPB's and is being continuously improved.
Practical Investment Strategies with SHB Stock
With the analyzed data, here are practical investment strategies for SHB, depending on your risk appetite and investment timeframe:
- Short-term Strategy (1-3 months): Accumulate when SHB reaches the 12,000-12,100 VND zone, set stoploss at 11,700 VND. Take partial profits at 12,450 VND (MA20) and 13,200 VND (neckline). Total maximum risk 3-5% of portfolio.
- Medium-term Strategy (3-12 months): Open positions when SHB breaks above MA20 with large volume, add when it pulls back to MA20. Price target 14,500-15,000 VND when Q2/2024 report is released.
- Long-term Strategy (>1 year): Gradually accumulate SHB at current price levels, allocating 5-7% of portfolio. Increase weight if digital transformation strategy and retail credit expansion are successful.
- Defensive Strategy: Use Pocket Option's Money Management tool to automatically set stoploss at 8-10% from purchase price and take-profit according to a minimum risk:reward ratio of 1:2.
Pocket Option provides many advanced trading tools to execute these strategies, including conditional orders (OCO), real-time price alerts, and smart portfolio management tools. You can also use the "Portfolio Analyzer" feature to evaluate SHB's suitability in your overall investment portfolio.
5 Factors Determining SHB's Future in Q2/2024
To update SHB stock analysis in line with market developments, follow these 5 important factors:
| Factor | Expected Timing | Potential Impact | How to Monitor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2/2024 Business Results | July 20, 2024 | Profit growth above 15% YoY will be a strong driver for price increases | Monitor information disclosure announcements on HNX and SHB website |
| 5,000 billion Capital Increase Plan | Q3/2024 | Issuance method determines the degree of dilution | Update on extraordinary shareholders meeting expected in August 2024 |
| Listing Transfer to HOSE | Q4/2024 | Potential to increase liquidity and attract foreign capital | Monitor information disclosure from SHB and HOSE |
| SHB Digital Banking Implementation | In progress | Target of 30% new users will boost non-interest income | Monitor data on new users and transactions through digital channels |
| Divestment from Subsidiaries | Q3/2024 | Recognition of extraordinary profits, improving financial indicators | Announcements about divestment transactions from the Board |
Pocket Option provides a unique "Event Alert" service, helping you receive instant notifications when there is important news about SHB, ensuring you don't miss valuable trading opportunities from this information.
Conclusion: Prospects and Specific Actions
After comprehensive analysis from different angles, we provide specific assessments of SHB stock as follows:
Fundamentally, SHB is in a recovery cycle with a business strategy focusing on retail credit and digital transformation. The positive Q1/2024 business results (12.3% profit growth) and well-controlled NPL ratio (decreased from 1.78% to 1.62%) provide a solid foundation for upcoming growth.
Technically, SHB stock is forming a double bottom pattern with strong support at 11,800-12,000 VND. Gradually increasing trading volume in the last 5 sessions combined with signs of RSI recovery is a positive signal. However, SHB needs to break through the MA20 level (12,450 VND) to confirm the short-term uptrend.
Pocket Option recommends investors:
- Accumulate SHB in the 12,000-12,200 VND zone with modest weight (3-5% of portfolio)
- Set tight stoploss at 11,700 VND (5% below recent bottom)
- Increase weight when SHB breaks above MA20 (12,450 VND) with large volume
- Take partial profits at resistance zones of 13,200 VND and 14,500 VND
SHB is a stock with 15-20% growth potential in the next 6 months if business results continue to be positive and the general market is favorable. The most attractive point is the low P/B valuation (1.22) while operating indicators are improving. Use Pocket Option's risk management tools to build the most effective investment strategy for this stock.
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