Pocket Option explores HNG stock potential

Overview of HNG Stock and Current Position

HNG stock of Hoang Anh Gia Lai International Agriculture Joint Stock Company has increased 28% since the beginning of 2025, far exceeding the 12% increase of VN-Index during the same period. To properly assess the potential of HNG stock, it is necessary to consider both the development history and current position of this company in the Vietnamese agricultural market.

Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agrico, established in 2010 as a subsidiary of Hoang Anh Gia Lai Group, made an important transformation in 2018 when it shifted from rubber and sugar cane to focus on bananas and passion fruit. This strategy has helped the company's revenue increase by 35% in 2024, reaching 2,450 billion VND, with gross profit margin improving from 15% to 23%.

In Q1/2025, HNG stock rose sharply from 8,200 VND to 10,500 VND (up 28%), with average trading volume reaching 3.2 million shares/session, 2.5 times higher than Q4/2024. This data shows increasing investor interest, raising questions about the potential of HNG stock in the following quarters of 2025.

Analysis of Fundamental Factors Affecting HNG

Evaluating the potential of HNG stock needs to be based on in-depth analysis of fundamental factors affecting business operations and company value, especially after the company's comprehensive restructuring in 2023.

Business Strategy and Production Model

HNG has transformed dramatically from a multi-sector model to focus on high-tech agriculture, especially export bananas and passion fruit. This strategy has shown clear results as banana revenue in 2024 reached 1,470 billion VND (up 42% compared to 2023), and passion fruit reached 490 billion VND (up 28%).

HNG's agricultural model applies GlobalGAP and VietGAP standards across all 30,247 hectares of cultivation land, with Israeli drip irrigation systems saving 40% water compared to traditional methods. In 2024, banana production reached 293,000 tons (up 22%), with 85% meeting export standards - significantly higher than the industry average of 67%.

Financial Situation and Debt

A determining factor for the potential of HNG stock is the financial situation, especially the debt structure. From 2022 to 2024, HNG reduced total debt from 9,200 billion VND to 6,830 billion VND, a decrease of 25.8% - a positive sign of financial management capability.

The Q4/2024 financial report shows HNG achieved revenue of 2,450 billion VND (up 35% compared to 2023), profit after tax of 915 billion VND (up 167%), with gross profit margin improving from 15% to 23%. Notably, the interest coverage ratio (ICR) increased from 1.2 to 2.3 - exceeding the 1.5 safety threshold, showing significantly improved repayment capacity.

Experts from Pocket Option assess that if HNG continues to reduce debt at the current rate, combined with revenue growth from fruit exports, it could significantly improve the P/E ratio from the current 12.1 to 9.5 by the end of 2025, creating room for stock price increases.

Technical Analysis and HNG Stock Price Trends

Technical analysis provides an important view of price movements and growth potential of HNG stock in different timeframes.

According to Pocket Option's trading data, HNG stock rose sharply in three main waves from June 2024 until now: wave 1 from 6,200 VND to 7,800 VND (June-July 2024), wave 2 from 7,300 VND to 9,100 VND (October-November 2024), and wave 3 from 8,200 VND to 10,500 VND (Q1/2025). Each increase had trading volume 150-200% higher than the average of the previous 20 sessions.

Important support and resistance levels to monitor in April-May 2025:

Another important indicator is the foreign trading ratio: in Q1/2025, foreign investors net bought 12.8 million HNG shares, accounting for 27% of total trading volume. This is the period when HNG stock rose most sharply, showing that interest from foreign investors is an important price driver.

Macroeconomic Factors Affecting HNG Stock Potential

To fully evaluate the potential of HNG stock, it's necessary to analyze macroeconomic factors directly impacting Vietnam's agricultural export industry and especially HNG's business operations.

Vietnam-China Trade Relations and RCEP Agreement

China is HNG's main export market, accounting for 75% of total export turnover in 2024. The RCEP agreement effective from early 2022 has reduced tariffs on bananas from 10% to 2%, and on passion fruit from 15% to 5%, creating a major competitive advantage for HNG compared to competitors from Thailand and the Philippines.

In particular, the amended Protocol on Vietnamese fruit exports to China signed in November 2024 has allowed 9 new types of Vietnamese fruits (including durian and jackfruit) to be officially exported, opening up great opportunities for HNG to diversify export products and reduce dependence on bananas.

An analyst from Pocket Option states: "Despite concerns about over-dependence on the Chinese market, with advantages in product quality and logistics costs 22% lower than Thai competitors due to geographical location, HNG is in a favorable position to take advantage of opportunities from the RCEP agreement and the new Protocol."

Opportunities and Challenges for HNG Stock

Detailed SWOT analysis to evaluate opportunities and challenges for HNG stock in the 2025-2026 period.

Besides opportunities, HNG still faces significant challenges:

HNG Stock Investment Strategy for Vietnamese Investors

Based on comprehensive analysis of HNG stock potential, below is a detailed investment strategy suitable for each group of Vietnamese investors in 2025.

For long-term investors (12-24 months), HNG is an attractive choice with potential gains of 35-40% in the next 18 months if the company continues to reduce debt and expand export markets. An effective strategy is to accumulate stocks during corrections around the MA50 zone (9,280 VND) or technical support levels, with a proportion not exceeding 7-10% of the total portfolio.

For medium-term investors (3-6 months), the "buy the dip" strategy can be applied - buying when the stock corrects to the 9,800-10,000 VND zone (strong technical support), with a target of 11,500-12,000 VND when the company announces Q2/2025 business results (expected in July 2025). Set stoploss at 9,200 VND (below MA50).

The Pocket Option trading platform provides tools to monitor HNG stock with functions for price alerts, unusual volume, and automatic technical analysis. Investors can set alerts when prices touch identified support/resistance levels or when there are reversal signs.

Expert Opinions on HNG Stock Prospects

For a multi-dimensional view, below are opinions from leading experts on the prospects of HNG stock in 2025.

Dr. Nguyen Van A, Head of Analysis at VPS Securities: "HNG is in a new growth cycle with three main factors: debt reduction from divesting inefficient projects, revenue growth of 35-40% from banana and passion fruit segments, and expansion into durian with high profit margins of 30-35%. The price target of 12,500 VND in the next 6 months is entirely feasible, provided the company properly handles the short-term debt pressure of 1,750 billion VND maturing in Q2/2025."

Ms. Tran Thi B, Director of Vietnam-China Agricultural Export-Import: "Banana and passion fruit exports to China in Q1/2025 increased by 42% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 427 million USD. HNG with its large 30,000ha material area and modern logistics system accounts for about 18% of this export turnover. If the current growth rate is maintained, HNG could achieve revenue growth of 35-40% in 2025."

A more cautious opinion from Mr. Pham Van C, independent analyst: "Despite positive signals about business operations, HNG still faces pressure to repay short-term debt of 1,750 billion VND maturing in Q2/2025. If the rubber project divestment plan is not completed or a new debt restructuring agreement is not reached, the stock could correct strongly to the 9,000-9,500 VND zone. Investors should closely monitor divestment developments in May-June 2025 before making investment decisions."

Conclusion: Overall Assessment of HNG Stock Potential

Summarizing the above analyses, HNG stock is showing positive HNG stock potential thanks to three main factors: the strategy focusing on export fruit trees has proven effective through 2024 business results, favorable debt reduction progress, and great opportunities from the RCEP agreement and the new fruit export Protocol.

Q1/2025 revenue is estimated at 710 billion VND (+28% year-on-year) and profit after tax at 215 billion (+72%) showing strong growth momentum. With projected 2025 EPS of 1,250-1,300 VND and industry average P/E of 10.5, HNG's reasonable price by the end of 2025 could reach 13,000-13,650 VND, equivalent to 25-30% growth potential from current price levels.

The decisive success factor for HNG stock to rise strongly in 2025 will be the ability to resolve the short-term debt of 1,750 billion VND maturing in Q2/2025, through the rubber project divestment plan and debt restructuring negotiations. Investors should closely monitor these developments before making investment decisions.

Pocket Option evaluates HNG as a stock with good growth potential in a diversified investment portfolio, with a recommended weight of 5-7% of the total portfolio. Investors should apply a gradual accumulation strategy at the support levels analyzed, combined with strict risk management through appropriate stoploss placement.

With the prospect of Vietnam's agricultural export industry continuing to grow strongly in the next 2-3 years thanks to trade agreements and increasing demand for safe food in Asian markets, HNG with its large scale and correct strategy has many opportunities to grow outstandingly compared to the general market, especially as the company continues to improve its financial situation and expand its export product portfolio.