Pocket Option - Tourism stocks: Investment strategies and growth potential
Vietnam's tourism stock market is experiencing a strong recovery after the pandemic, opening up attractive investment opportunities for both new and professional investors. The article provides in-depth analysis of potential tourism stocks, smart investment strategies, and how to use Pocket Option's analytical tools to optimize your portfolio as Vietnam's tourism enters a new growth cycle.
Overview of Vietnam's Tourism Stock Market
Vietnam's tourism stock market is in a strong recovery phase after the pandemic. The tourism industry plays an important role in the national economic structure, contributing directly to GDP growth and creating jobs. Capitalizing on investment opportunities in tourism stocks requires a deep understanding of the industry's growth drivers and potential risks.
Data from the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism shows impressive results: in the first 6 months of 2024, international tourists reached nearly 8 million (up 58% compared to 2023), domestic tourists reached 57 million, with total tourism revenue of $9.5 billion. This recovery has driven growth for tourism stocks, with an average increase of 17.2% in the first half of 2024.
According to Pocket Option analysts, Vietnam's tourism industry recovery cycle is only in its early stages. Strong growth is forecast to continue for the next 2-3 years, with total industry revenue potentially reaching $23 billion in 2025 - 29% higher than in 2023. This is a major opportunity for investors seeking profits from tourism stocks with long-term growth potential.
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (first 6 months) | 2025 Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| International tourists (million) | 3.5 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 18.0 |
| Domestic tourists (million) | 101.3 | 108.5 | 57.0 | 120.0 |
| Total tourism revenue (billion USD) | 5.2 | 17.8 | 9.5 | 23.0 |
| Tourism stock index growth (%) | -15.3 | 28.5 | 17.2 | 22.0-25.0 |
Classification and Characteristics of Tourism Stocks in Vietnam
Tourism stocks in Vietnam are diverse in types and business characteristics. Each subgroup has its own cash flow characteristics, profit margins, and sensitivity to market factors. For effective investment, investors need to understand each tourism stock group and their development prospects.
Travel and Transportation Companies
This group includes companies that organize tours and provide tourism transportation services. The notable feature of this group is quick response to changes in tourist volume and high cyclicality. Since the beginning of 2024, this stock group has increased by an average of 32%, led by VJC (up 47%).
- VTD (Vietnam Tourism Development): A travel company with 18% market share of premium international tourists, Q2/2024 profit up 85% year-on-year
- VEXERE (VEX): Online booking platform with 3.5 million monthly users, expanding into Cambodia and Laos markets
- VJC (Vietjet Air): Network of 120 routes, 87% load factor, fleet expected to increase by 10 aircraft in 2024
- HVN (Vietnam Airlines): Undergoing debt restructuring, expected to return to profitability from Q4/2024 after 3 consecutive years of losses
Data from Pocket Option indicates that the tourism transportation stock group is highly sensitive to fuel prices, has large capital costs (for airlines), but has the advantage of being able to quickly increase ticket prices during peak seasons, creating sudden profit margins.
Hotel and Resort Company Stocks
This stock group represents companies that own and operate tourist accommodation facilities. Notable features include large assets, stable cash flow, and good resilience during economic cycles. Room capacity at key tourist destinations has improved significantly, reaching 75-85% during the 2024 peak season (up 25% compared to 2023).
- VNG (Vietnam Tourism Group): Owns 12 4-5 star hotels with 2,800 rooms, average room rate up 22% in 2024
- OCH (Ocean Hospitality): Operates 8 coastal resorts in Central Vietnam, profit margin improved from 8.7% to 12.5%
- PDR (Phat Dat Real Estate): 3 resort real estate projects in Phu Quoc and Nha Trang, total value of $1.2 billion
- BHV (Bamboo Hotels & Resorts): Developing green hotel models, received international sustainable tourism certification in 2023
| Stock Code | Current Price (VND) | P/E | Revenue Growth (%) | Dividend (%) | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNG | 42,800 | 18.5 | 35.2 | 3.2 | Accumulate |
| OCH | 15,200 | 22.1 | 28.7 | 2.5 | Watch |
| PDR | 28,600 | 15.8 | 18.5 | 4.1 | Buy |
| BHV | 12,300 | 25.3 | 42.1 | 1.8 | Accumulate |
Technical Analysis and Trading Signals for Tourism Stocks
Technical analysis helps identify optimal buy/sell points for tourism stocks. Pocket Option's analysis tools provide in-depth technical indicators and price models to identify potential trading opportunities.
When technically analyzing tourism stocks, pay attention to the following specific factors:
- Seasonality: 5-year charts show tourism stocks typically rise 15-20% before peak seasons (April-May and November-December)
- News sensitivity: Strong reaction to visa policy information (average 5-8% increase within 3 days after positive news)
- Volume indicators: Trading volume increasing 50% compared to 20-session average is a sign of returning money flow
- Support/resistance zones: Identified based on 3-year historical data combined with Fibonacci levels
Currently, many tourism stocks are in a medium-term uptrend. MACD and RSI indicators show positive signals, while Bollinger Bands are widening, signaling increased price volatility. Below is a specific analysis for representative stocks:
| Stock Code | Current Trend | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Technical Indicators | Technical Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VJC | Medium-term uptrend | 125,000 - 128,000 | 145,000 - 150,000 | Positive MACD, RSI = 62 | Buy on pullback to 130,000 |
| VNG | Sideways accumulation | 40,500 - 41,200 | 44,500 - 46,000 | RSI = 52, Volume up 35% | Buy when breaking 44,500 with large volume |
| PDR | Short-term recovery | 26,500 - 27,200 | 29,800 - 32,000 | Bollinger Bands widening 18% | Partial buying in 27,000-27,500 zone |
| HVN | Bullish reversal | 18,200 - 19,000 | 22,500 - 24,000 | Golden Cross forming after 210 sessions | Buy with stop loss below 18,000 |
According to Pocket Option's backtest data, a trading strategy combining price trends and volume indicators yields a 72% success rate when applied to tourism stocks during the 2018-2024 period. In particular, "Cup with Handle" and "Bullish Flag" patterns frequently appear before strong price increases in tourism stocks.
Fundamental Analysis and Prospects of Leading Tourism Stocks
Fundamental analysis is the foundation for determining the real value of tourism stocks. Below is a detailed analysis of representative tourism stocks in Vietnam:
VietJet Air (VJC) - Benefiting from Domestic and Regional Tourism Boom
VietJet Air is proving its leading position in Vietnam's low-cost airline segment with many impressive business indicators:
- Q2/2024 revenue reached 14,200 billion VND, up 43% year-on-year with gross profit margin improving from 12.5% to 16.8%
- Load factor reached 87%, 4% higher than pre-pandemic, leading Vietnam's aviation industry
- Current fleet of 78 aircraft, expected to add 10 A321neo aircraft in 2024
- Network of 80 domestic and 40 international routes, planning to open 15 new routes in 2025
- Cost per available seat-kilometer (CASK) decreased 7% compared to 2023 thanks to fleet optimization and high load factor
With a current P/E of about 18.5 times (lower than the regional aviation industry average of 22.3 times), VJC is attractively valued. The strategy of expanding the fleet, increasing flight frequency, and optimizing fuel costs helps VJC maintain a superior competitive position compared to competitors.
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (Forecast) | 2025 (Forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (billion VND) | 32,500 | 48,700 | 59,800 | 72,400 |
| Net profit (billion VND) | -2,180 | 2,750 | 4,250 | 5,850 |
| EPS (VND) | -800 | 5,080 | 7,850 | 10,800 |
| P/E (times) | N/A | 24.6 | 16.0 | 11.6 |
| ROE (%) | -5.2 | 9.8 | 14.5 | 18.2 |
Pocket Option's analysis shows VJC has potential for 25-38% price increase in the next 12 months, with a target price of 150,000-165,000 VND. The main growth drivers come from: (1) Complete recovery of the domestic aviation market, (2) International network expansion, (3) Secondary listing plan in Singapore in 2025, and (4) Effective cost-cutting program.
Investment Strategy for Tourism Stocks in 2024-2025
Investing in tourism stocks requires a clear strategy and disciplined execution. Below are effective strategies built on the specifics of the Vietnamese market:
1. Asset Allocation Strategy by Sub-sector
To optimize returns while minimizing risk, investors should allocate capital in a reasonable ratio between tourism sub-sectors:
- Airlines and transportation: 30-35% of portfolio (focus on VJC and stocks with good cost control ability)
- Hotels and resorts: 25-30% of portfolio (prioritize businesses owning real estate in premium tourist destinations)
- Travel agencies and tourism services: 15-20% of portfolio (choose companies with strong digital platforms and large market share)
- Entertainment and food services: 10-15% of portfolio (choose businesses with strong brands and chain expansion capability)
- Tourism technology: 5-10% of portfolio (prioritize platforms with large user bases and service expansion capability)
This strategy has proven effective in the 2022-2024 period, with a portfolio allocated according to the above ratio yielding a return of 32.5% while the VN-Index increased 18.3% during the same period (data from Pocket Option's backtest).
2. Investment Strategy Based on Tourism Cycles
Leveraging the cyclical nature of the tourism industry is an effective strategy to optimize buying and selling timing:
| Time Period | Market Characteristics | Specific Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| January-February (after Tet) | Tourism stocks typically fall 8-12%, low liquidity | Accumulate 40% of planned capital at low price areas, focus on tourism stocks with good Q4 results |
| March-April | Accumulation phase preparing for summer tourism season | Add remaining 30% capital, prioritize stocks with technical breakouts of resistance with large volume |
| May-August | Peak tourism season, Q2 results usually exceed expectations | Take profit on 50% of stocks that rise 20%+, keep 50% to enjoy long-term momentum |
| September-October | Low season, stocks usually correct 5-10% | Re-accumulate with 30% reserve capital, focus on stocks with strong fundamentals |
| November-December | Preparation for Tet holiday tourism season, positive sentiment | Hold until mid-January, especially stocks announcing good business plans for the next year |
Pocket Option provides a "Seasonal Trend Analyzer" tool that helps investors accurately identify the seasonal cycle of each tourism stock based on 10-year historical data. This tool shows that 78% of tourism stocks tend to rise in April-May and November-December.
3. Investment Strategy Based on Industry Development Trends
Vietnam's tourism is transforming with new trends. Investors should focus on companies leading in these trends:
- Green and sustainable tourism: BHV is building a chain of 5 hotels with LEED green certification, with a 15-20% premium compared to traditional hotels
- Experience and cultural tourism: VTD achieved 42% growth in 2023 thanks to indigenous cultural tours in the Northwest and Central Highlands
- MICE tourism: VNG invested 320 billion VND in a new conference center in Da Nang, expected to be completed in Q3/2025
- Health tourism: PDR collaborates with Japanese partners to develop a 22-hectare medical resort in Phu Quoc
- Technology tourism: VEXERE grew 62% in users by integrating AI into tour booking processes and suggesting personalized experiences
Data from Pocket Option shows that companies pioneering new trends have an average revenue growth rate 28% higher than traditional companies in the same segment. This is the basis for investors to build long-term portfolios with sustainable growth potential.
Risks and Risk Management Strategies When Investing in Tourism Stocks
Besides opportunities, investing in tourism stocks also entails many specific risks. Smart investors need to identify and build effective risk management strategies:
1. Macroeconomic Risks
Global and domestic economic downturns can seriously affect the tourism industry. Historical data shows that when GDP decreases by 1%, tourism spending typically decreases by 1.8-2.2%.
Management Strategy:
- Monitor macroeconomic indicators (CPI, GDP, interest rates) through Pocket Option's periodic reports
- Build an "all-weather" portfolio with a ratio of 65% tourism stocks with large assets (hotels, resorts) and 35% cycle-sensitive stocks
- Apply Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) method when the market goes down to reduce average cost
- Set trailing stops at 12-15% below current price to protect profits when markets fluctuate strongly
2. Risks from Unexpected Events
The tourism industry is particularly sensitive to unforeseen events. Data shows that after the COVID-19 pandemic, Vietnamese tourism stocks lost an average of 52.7% of their value and took 2.5 years to recover.
Management Strategy:
- Apply the 5/25 asset allocation rule (no more than 5% in one stock, no more than 25% in one sub-sector)
- Maintain a cash ratio of 15-20% to seize opportunities when the market panics
- Monitor Pocket Option's global risk warning system (updated weekly)
- Use put options or other derivatives to protect portfolios when the market shows signs of overheating
| Risk Type | Impact Level | Probability | Specific Preventive Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economic recession | High | Medium (30-35% in next 2 years) | Allocate 40% to stocks with low debt ratios, stable cash flow like VNG, BHV |
| New pandemic | Very high | Low (10-15% in next 3 years) | Buy portfolio insurance through warrants, keep 20% cash |
| Exchange rate fluctuations | Medium | High (70% in next 12 months) | Prioritize companies with USD revenue sources like VJC, VTD (>40% foreign currency revenue) |
| International competition | Medium | High (75-80% in next 18 months) | Choose companies with exclusive tourist destinations or strong brands |
| Fuel price fluctuations | High (for airlines) | High (80% in next 12 months) | Choose VJC (75% new fleet, saving 12-18% fuel compared to old fleet) |
3. Sub-sector Specific Risks
Each tourism sub-sector has specific risk characteristics. Pocket Option analysis shows different levels of sensitivity to risk factors:
- Airlines: Fuel costs account for 35-40% of cost structure, 10% oil price fluctuation impacts 3.5-4% of profits
- Hotels: Average payback period of 8-10 years, requiring reasonable capital structure and good debt repayment ability
- Travel agencies: Low profit margins (5-8%), need large scale and optimized operating costs to compete effectively
- Entertainment: Requires continuous investment to renew experiences, high maintenance costs (15-20% of annual revenue)
Pocket Option's "Sector Risk Analyzer" tool provides a detailed risk score for 28 listed tourism stocks, helping investors identify companies with the best risk resilience in each sub-sector.
Conclusion and Outlook for Tourism Stocks 2025-2027
Vietnamese tourism stocks are entering a sustainable growth cycle after the recovery phase. Data and analysis from Pocket Option show positive prospects for the 2025-2027 period with strong supporting factors:
First, Vietnam is implementing a strategy to develop tourism into a key economic sector with the goal of welcoming 30 million international visitors by 2030 and achieving tourism revenue of $35 billion (up 97% compared to 2023). Supporting policies such as 45-day visa exemptions for 13 countries and $25 billion investment in tourism infrastructure during 2021-2025 are creating a solid foundation for development.
Second, the trend of spending on experiences is growing strongly in Vietnam, especially among the young population (18-35 years old) who make up 35% of the population. Pocket Option's survey of 5,800 Vietnamese consumers shows that 72% of young people prioritize spending on travel and experiences rather than asset purchases, creating sustainable growth momentum for the industry.
Third, tourism stocks are currently valued at attractive levels compared to growth potential. The average P/E of this group is 18.5 times, lower than the 5-year historical average (22.7 times) and lower than regional markets such as Thailand (24.3 times) and Malaysia (22.8 times).
Based on DCF valuation models and P/E comparisons, Pocket Option experts forecast that during the 2025-2027 period, tourism stocks could grow by an average of 18-25% each year, outperforming the expected 10-12% growth of the VN-Index. In particular, leading companies in the airline segment (VJC), luxury resorts (VNG, PDR), and sustainable tourism (BHV) have the potential for 30-45% price increases in the next 18 months.
To optimize investment opportunities in tourism stocks, investors should apply smart diversification strategies, combine fundamental and technical analysis, and use advanced analytical tools from Pocket Option. Closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators, industry trends, and especially effective risk management will help protect and increase portfolio value in all market conditions.
With the increasingly important role of tourism in Vietnam's economy (expected contribution to increase from current 8-10% to 12-15% of GDP by 2030), investing in tourism stocks not only brings financial growth opportunities but also accompanies the sustainable development of one of the country's key economic sectors.
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