Pocket Option - Decoding SHB Stock Potential 2024
A comprehensive analysis of SHB stock from Saigon-Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank, providing an in-depth look at price movements, factors affecting stock value, and appropriate investment strategies in the context of Vietnam's current stock market.
Overview of SHB Stock and Market Position
SHB stock - the stock code of Saigon - Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank - has become one of the most actively traded banking stocks on the Vietnamese stock market. Established in 1993, SHB currently owns a network of 534 transaction points nationwide and has presence in Laos, Cambodia, along with a representative office in Myanmar.
On HOSE, SHB stock is regularly among the top 20 stocks with the highest liquidity, with an average daily trading volume of 15-20 million shares. With a current market capitalization of approximately 37,500 billion VND (as of April 2024), SHB ranks 8th among banks listed on the Vietnamese stock exchange.
According to exclusive analysis from Pocket Option experts, SHB stock stands out with 3 main characteristics: consistently high liquidity (average 260-320 billion VND/session), reasonable price fluctuation range (15-20% over the past 6 months), and distinct cyclical nature, creating opportunities for both short-term and long-term investors. These characteristics make SHB an ideal choice for both beginning and professional investors.
Analysis of SHB Stock Price Movements in 2023-2024
Looking back at the journey of SHB stock from early 2023 until now, we can see a clear growth trend despite some adjustment periods. At the beginning of 2023, SHB stock was trading around 11,800-12,500 VND, but has had significant increases, especially in Q4/2023 and Q1/2024.
| Period | SHB Stock Price (VND) | Change (%) | Average Trading Volume (million shares) | Key Highlights |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1/2023 | 11,800 - 13,700 | +16.1% | 15.8 | Announcement of 2022 business results exceeding expectations |
| Q2/2023 | 12,900 - 14,500 | +12.4% | 19.2 | Approval of charter capital increase plan |
| Q3/2023 | 11,200 - 13,300 | -9.6% | 13.5 | Selling pressure from the general market |
| Q4/2023 | 12,100 - 16,200 | +33.9% | 24.8 | Forecast of strong Q4 profit increase |
| Q1/2024 | 14,300 - 17,100 | +19.6% | 21.5 | Completion of private share issuance |
| Q2/2024 (to date) | 15,100 - 18,400 | +21.9% | 26.7 | Forecast of interest rate decrease, credit growth |
The data above shows 3 clear trends in SHB stock price: (1) strong long-term growth with a 50.8% increase from early 2023 until now, (2) short-term adjustments creating buying opportunities, and (3) trading volume increasing strongly during price increases, especially in Q4/2023 and Q2/2024, indicating significant capital inflow into this stock.
In particular, the strongest price increases of SHB stock are often linked to positive information about business results or strategic development plans of the bank, creating opportunities for investors to anticipate trends.
Technical Analysis of SHB Stock
From a technical analysis perspective, SHB stock has formed 4 notable price patterns in the past 12 months:
- Pennant pattern lasting from July 10, 2023 to August 18, 2023, after which the price increased by 18.2% within 4 weeks
- Double Bottom pattern formed in early November 2023 at the price level of 12,300 VND, creating momentum for the strong increase at the end of 2023
- Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern in February 2024, supporting the price increase to the 17,100 VND area
- Ascending Triangle pattern forming from March 2024 until now, with a resistance line at the 18,500 VND area
The moving averages are all distributed in ascending order (MA20 > MA50 > MA100), creating a solid uptrend structure. The MACD indicator has given a buy signal since February 28, 2024 and remains above the signal line, while RSI oscillates in the 60-70 zone, not yet in the overbought area.
According to exclusive assessment from Pocket Option technical experts, SHB stock has broken through the important psychological resistance level of 15,500 VND on March 12, 2024 with a trading volume 2.3 times the 20-session average, confirming a strong uptrend and opening up the potential to reach the 19,000-20,000 VND zone in the next 2-3 months.
| Price Zone (VND) | Role | Importance Level | Determination Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18,400 - 19,200 | Strong Resistance | Very High | All-time high + Fibonacci 161.8% |
| 16,700 - 17,300 | Resistance | High | March 2024 peak + Fibonacci 127.2% |
| 15,200 - 15,800 | Support/Resistance | Medium | MA50 + February 2024 accumulation zone |
| 13,800 - 14,500 | Support | High | MA100 + December 2023 bottom |
| 12,300 - 13,000 | Strong Support | Very High | MA200 + Q3/2023 accumulation zone |
Fundamental Analysis and Factors Affecting SHB Stock Price
To have a comprehensive view of SHB stock, it is necessary to analyze deeply the bank's fundamental factors, from business results to asset quality and long-term development strategy.
SHB Business Results
SHB has recorded impressive growth in the past 2 years. In 2023, the bank achieved a pre-tax profit of 8,576 billion VND, an increase of 20.8% compared to 2022. Total assets reached 607,320 billion VND, up 16.3%. Notably, the NPL ratio was controlled at 1.65%, decreasing by 0.2% compared to the previous year and lower than the industry average (1.92%).
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | % Change | Q1/2024 | % vs Q1/2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets (billion VND) | 522,164 | 607,320 | +16.3% | 632,418 | +13.8% |
| Outstanding Loans (billion VND) | 382,452 | 427,136 | +11.7% | 447,823 | +12.5% |
| Customer Deposits (billion VND) | 412,683 | 452,146 | +9.6% | 472,368 | +10.3% |
| Net Interest Income (billion VND) | 15,387 | 18,348 | +19.2% | 4,862 | +15.7% |
| Profit Before Tax (billion VND) | 7,096 | 8,576 | +20.8% | 2,384 | +22.3% |
| NPL Ratio (%) | 1.85 | 1.65 | -0.2% | 1.58 | -0.14% |
| CASA Ratio (%) | 16.8 | 18.5 | +1.7% | 19.2 | +1.3% |
Analysis from Pocket Option highlights 3 notable points in SHB's business results: (1) the CASA ratio has increased continuously for 7 consecutive quarters, currently reaching 19.2%, helping to reduce cost of funds; (2) the NPL coverage ratio reaches 85.3%, much higher than many banks of similar size; and (3) return on equity (ROE) reached 16.2% in Q1/2024, an increase of 1.8% compared to the same period last year.
With the current growth momentum, SHB is forecast to achieve a pre-tax profit of about 10,300-10,500 billion VND in 2024, an increase of 20-22% compared to 2023. This is an important foundation supporting the upside prospect of SHB stock in the coming time.
Investment Strategy for SHB Stock for Vietnamese Investors
Based on comprehensive technical and fundamental analysis, we propose 3 specific investment strategies for SHB stock, suitable for different groups of Vietnamese investors:
Long-term Investment Strategy (12-24 months)
For long-term investors, SHB stock shows sustainable growth potential thanks to 4 factors: solid fundamental base, correct digital transformation strategy, potential to increase CASA ratio, and valuation still low compared to potential.
- Accumulation buying strategy: Allocate investment capital into 3-4 phases, buying at price zones of 14,000-14,500 VND, 15,300-15,800 VND and adjustment zones after strong increases
- Appropriate proportion: 8-12% of banking stock investment portfolio, with increased proportion when the price reaches strong support zones
- Best buying time: After announcing quarterly business results exceeding expectations or announcing positive dividend/capital increase policies
- Price target: 23,000-25,000 VND in the next 18-24 months, equivalent to 30-40% upside from the current price level
Currently, the P/E of SHB stock is at 9.7 times, much lower than the banking industry average (12.4 times). With an expected profit growth rate of 20-22% in 2024 and 15-18% in 2025, the PEG ratio (P/E divided by growth) is only about 0.5-0.6, showing that SHB stock is at a very attractive valuation for long-term investment.
SHB Stock Price - Trend Analysis and Accurate Forecast
SHB stock price today is being closely monitored by both individual and institutional investors. Based on the DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) valuation model and technical analysis, we provide 3 specific price forecast scenarios for the next 6-12 months.
| Scenario | Price Forecast (VND) | Conditions | Probability | Expected Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimistic | 20,500 - 22,000 | - Q2/2024 PBT increases >25% YoY- CASA ratio exceeds 20%- VN-Index maintains above 1,300 points- Completion of bonus share issuance at 20% ratio | 30% | Q4/2024 |
| Base Case | 18,000 - 20,000 | - Q2/2024 PBT increases 18-22% YoY- NPL ratio maintained below 1.7%- VN-Index fluctuates between 1,200-1,300 points | 55% | Q3/2024 |
| Conservative | 15,000 - 17,000 | - Q2/2024 PBT increases <15% YoY- NIM decreases due to competitive pressure- VN-Index adjusts to below 1,150 points- Delay in capital increase plan | 15% | Q3/2024 |
Pocket Option's analysis team evaluates that SHB stock price today is at a reasonable level with a P/B valuation of 1.28 times (much lower than VCB: 3.60 times and TCB: 1.52 times). In particular, if SHB maintains a profit growth rate >20% for the next 2 years, the reasonable P/B will be 1.6-1.8 times, equivalent to a price of 21,000-23,000 VND/share.
5 factors determining the price trend of SHB stock in the next 6 months:
- Q2 and Q3/2024 PBT results (expected to be announced in July and October 2024)
- Progress of completing bonus share issuance at a ratio of 18-20% (expected in Q3/2024)
- Developments in NPL ratio and provision expenses in the context of changing interest rates
- Results of implementing digitalization strategy and increasing CASA ratio to the target of >20%
- Cash dividend policy for 2024 (expected 8-10%)
SHB Stock in the Context of Vietnam's Banking Industry
To accurately assess the potential of SHB stock, it needs to be placed in the competitive context of Vietnam's banking industry. The comparison table below analyzes the important indicators of SHB with 4 other leading banks.
| Indicator | SHB | VCB | CTG | ACB | MBB | Industry Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROA (%) | 1.45 | 1.85 | 1.40 | 1.75 | 1.90 | 1.62 |
| ROE (%) | 15.8 | 21.2 | 16.5 | 19.8 | 22.3 | 18.4 |
| NIM (%) | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| CASA Ratio (%) | 19.2 | 35.6 | 21.8 | 25.3 | 27.6 | 23.5 |
| CIR (%) | 38.5 | 30.2 | 35.6 | 33.8 | 32.5 | 35.9 |
| P/E (times) | 9.7 | 18.5 | 11.2 | 13.5 | 12.8 | 12.4 |
| P/B (times) | 1.28 | 3.60 | 1.45 | 2.15 | 2.05 | 1.92 |
| PBT Growth 2023 (%) | 20.8 | 15.6 | 18.3 | 16.2 | 22.1 | 17.5 |
Analysis of the above data shows 4 strengths and 3 areas for improvement of SHB stock:
Notable strengths:
- Most attractive valuation in the group with lowest P/E and P/B, only 53% of average P/E and 67% of average P/B in the industry
- Profit growth rate 3.3 percentage points higher than the industry average
- Asset quality continuously improved with NPL ratio decreasing for 7 consecutive quarters
- Largest potential to increase CASA ratio in the comparison group, expected to be a strong profit growth driver in the next 2-3 years
Areas for improvement:
- ROA and ROE lower than industry average (1.45% vs 1.62% and 15.8% vs 18.4%)
- Lowest CASA ratio in the comparison group (19.2% vs average of 23.5%)
- Cost-to-income ratio (CIR) higher than industry average, showing operational efficiency still needs improvement
According to in-depth assessment from Pocket Option, the valuation gap between SHB and leading banks will narrow significantly in the next 12-18 months thanks to 3 factors: (1) room to increase CASA ratio to 23-25%; (2) competitive advantage in the SME segment with market share increasing from 4.8% to an expected 6.5%; and (3) efficiency from the "SHB Digital" transformation strategy with a target of 75% of transactions through digital channels by 2025.
Trading Strategy for SHB Stock for Short-term Investors
With high liquidity (average 15-25 million shares/session) and appropriate fluctuation range (4-8%/week), SHB stock is an ideal target for short-term trading. Below are 4 specific trading strategies for traders:
| Strategy | Entry Conditions | Stop Loss Point | Profit Target | Holding Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Break-out | - Price breaks through 18,500 VND with volume >20 million shares- MACD crosses above signal line- RSI >60 and rising | 17,800 VND (-3.8%) | 20,300 VND (+9.7%) | 2-3 weeks |
| Pullback | - Price adjusts to the 15,300-15,800 VND zone after a rise- Bollinger Bands begin to narrow- Foreign investors net buy for 3 consecutive sessions | 14,900 VND (-3.9%) | 17,000 VND (+9.0%) | 10-15 sessions |
| Momentum | - MACD crosses up in the negative zone- RSI exceeds the 50 threshold from below 40- Volume increases >50% compared to 10-session average | -5% from purchase price | +12% from purchase price | 5-8 sessions |
| Swing Trade | - Price successfully tests MA50 from above- Stochastic forms a bottom in the oversold zone (below 20)- Volume gradually decreases during the adjustment process | 3% below MA50 | Near the nearest resistance zone | 7-12 sessions |
Besides the above strategies, Pocket Option experts also point out 3 "golden" times to trade SHB stock:
- 1-2 days before the announcement of quarterly business results (usually in the middle of the first month of the following quarter)
- When there is information about the completion of capital increase phase or bonus share issuance
- After strong adjustments of the general market when SHB stock decreases by more than 10-12%
To optimize trading efficiency, traders should adhere to risk management principles: (1) not using more than 7% of capital for a SHB trade; (2) always setting stop-loss orders at a 1:2 ratio or better (risk 1 unit, expected profit 2 units); and (3) not chasing purchases when the price has increased >5% in the session.
Conclusion: Investment Prospects for SHB Stock in 2024-2025
From the comprehensive analysis of SHB stock, 5 important conclusions can be drawn for investors:
First, SHB has a strong financial foundation with profit before tax growth rate of 20.8% in 2023 and expected 20-22% in 2024, exceeding the industry average. In particular, the NPL ratio has decreased continuously for 7 quarters and reached 1.58% (Q1/2024), showing that asset quality is well controlled.
Second, technically, SHB stock is in a medium and long-term uptrend with an ascending triangle pattern forming. Breaking through the 18,500 VND threshold will open up the potential to rise to the 20,500-22,000 VND zone in the next 6-9 months.
Third, regarding valuation, with P/E of 9.7 times and P/B of 1.28 times, SHB stock is valued significantly lower than its growth potential and industry average. The reasonable valuation in the next 12 months is P/B 1.6-1.8 times, equivalent to a price of 21,000-23,000 VND/share.
Fourth, SHB's 3 main growth drivers come from: (1) the "SHB Digital" transformation strategy helping to optimize costs and grow customers; (2) potential to increase CASA ratio from 19.2% to 23-25%; and (3) expanding market share in the SME segment and high-income individual customers.
Fifth, despite the positive outlook, investors need to note 3 main risks: (1) competitive pressure in the banking industry is increasingly fierce, especially from digital banks; (2) interest rate fluctuations may affect NIM; and (3) risks from general market fluctuations and macroeconomic policies.
Based on comprehensive analysis, Pocket Option provides the following investment recommendations for SHB stock:
- Long-term investors: BUY and HOLD with a proportion of 8-12% of banking stock portfolio, price target 21,000-23,000 VND in 12-18 months
- Medium-term investors: BUY when price adjusts to the 15,300-15,800 VND zone, target 18,500-19,500 VND in 3-6 months
- Short-term traders: TRADE FLEXIBLY according to the strategies and technical signals analyzed, with strict risk management
In summary, SHB stock is an attractive investment opportunity in the Vietnamese stock market with long-term growth potential thanks to solid fundamentals, clear development strategy, and valuation still low compared to potential. Investors should build appropriate strategies based on personal investment objectives and risk appetite to optimize investment efficiency.