Pocket Option - HVN Stock Analysis 2024 and Outlook
Vietnam Airlines' HVN stock has experienced strong fluctuations in 2023-2024, with a 30% decrease from its peak. This article analyzes the main causes of the decline, evaluates the current financial situation, and proposes 5 specific investment strategies for each type of investor. Based on real data and analysis from Pocket Option experts.
Overview of HVN stock and its position in the Vietnamese aviation market
HVN stock, the securities code of Vietnam Airlines Corporation, has attracted an average of over 50,000 transactions per day in Q1/2024, becoming one of the 10 most sought-after stocks on HOSE.
With 65.8% of domestic route market share (as of Q1/2024) and a modern fleet of 105 aircraft, Vietnam Airlines is not only the national airline but also contributes 2.5% to Vietnam's annual GDP.
Currently, Vietnam Airlines stock is recovering after the pandemic but faces three main challenges: large loan debt (36,000 billion VND), fuel price fluctuations (+15% in Q1/2024), and fierce competition from low-cost airlines. For investors, understanding HVN stock requires analysis of all three factors: the company's financial situation, industry trends, and Vietnam's macroeconomic developments.
| Criteria | Information |
|---|---|
| Stock code | HVN |
| Listed exchange | HOSE |
| Listing date | 3/1/2015 |
| Market capitalization (Q1/2024) | 31,254 billion VND |
| Ownership structure | State: 86.16%, Other investors: 13.84% |
| Average daily trading volume | 4.87 million shares |
Financial analysis and operational efficiency of Vietnam Airlines stock
Vietnam Airlines recorded a record loss of 13,279 billion VND in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Revenue in 2023 recovered to 88,425 billion VND (88% compared to 2019), but profit was still negative at 1,325 billion VND - 45% lower than the initial recovery plan.
Revenue and profit situation
Vietnam Airlines' financial recovery process is 2.5 years slower than initially forecasted. The main reasons are fuel costs increasing 35% compared to the pre-Covid period, high interest from the 36,000 billion VND debt, and the slow recovery of the Chinese market (which accounts for 25% of international revenue).
| Criteria | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (billion VND) | 100,311 | 42,135 | 28,900 | 71,775 | 88,425 |
| Net profit (billion VND) | 2,538 | -11,178 | -13,279 | -6,285 | -1,325 |
| EPS (VND) | 1,853 | -7,651 | -9,098 | -4,302 | -907 |
| Load Factor | 82.6% | 63.2% | 51.8% | 74.5% | 80.3% |
According to Pocket Option's analysis, Vietnam Airlines is under pressure from three main debt sources: 12,500 billion VND in bank loans (8.2% annual interest), 8,000 billion VND from bond issuance (9.5% interest), and 15,500 billion from aircraft finance leases. Without an effective debt restructuring solution before Q4/2024, HVN stock is unlikely to return to sustainable growth.
Key financial indicators
Analysis of 5 key financial indicators shows a clear picture of Vietnam Airlines' financial health:
| Indicator | Q1/2024 Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | Negative (due to loss) | Not applicable due to negative earnings |
| P/B | 0.94 | Lower than industry average (1.35), reflecting low valuation |
| ROE | -4.3% | Negative but improved from -19.8% (2022) |
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | 2.3 times higher than industry average, significant financial risk |
| Current ratio | 0.82 | Below 1.0, indicating weak short-term payment capability |
Based on these indicators, Vietnam Airlines stock is currently classified as a high-risk investment. However, with a P/B ratio below 1.0 and gradual improvement in ROE, HVN has significant upside potential (30-45%) if the company succeeds with its 2024-2025 restructuring plan and achieves positive profit by early 2026.
Technical analysis and price trends of HVN stock
The technical chart of HVN stock for the 2022-2024 period forms a "Double Top" pattern with a long-term downtrend. The price has dropped 42% from the peak of 22,500 VND (July 2022) to the low of 13,100 VND (March 2024), with important technical levels:
- Strong support levels: 12,500 VND (November 2023 bottom) and 13,100 VND (March 2024 bottom)
- Important resistance levels: 17,800 VND (April 2023 peak) and 20,500 VND (MA200)
- Current accumulation zone: 14,200-16,500 VND (price channel since December 2023)
Analysis of 5 main technical indicators provides signals about the next movement direction of HVN stock:
| Indicator | Current value | Trading implication |
|---|---|---|
| MA50 and MA200 | MA50 (15,320) < MA200 (18,450) | Downtrend in the medium term, Death Cross confirmed since 01/2024 |
| RSI (14) | 42.5 | Neutral with selling bias, but not oversold |
| MACD (12,26,9) | -0.35, below signal line | Selling pressure is dominant, downtrend maintains |
| Bollinger Bands | Narrow bands (width 15.2%) | Low volatility, accumulating before next significant movement |
| Trading volume | 22% decrease compared to 20-session average | Weak money flow, investors waiting for new signals |
HVN stock liquidity reached an average of 4.87 million shares/day in Q1/2024, up 35% compared to the same period in 2023. Notably, trading volume increases significantly (2.5-3 times) on days when Vietnam Airlines releases quarterly financial reports or restructuring information, creating short-term trading opportunities for Pocket Option investors.
Based on technical analysis, Pocket Option recommends the following trading strategy for Vietnam Airlines stock:
- Accumulate purchases when price touches support zone 12,500-13,200 VND with sudden volume increase >7 million shares/session
- Take partial profits at 3 levels: 16,500 VND (25% position), 18,000 VND (40% position), and 20,000 VND (25% position)
- Maintain 10% position for breakthrough scenario above 22,000 VND if there is positive restructuring information
Fundamental factors affecting Vietnam Airlines stock prospects
According to official data from the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam, Q1/2024 recorded 12.8 million passengers, reaching 95.7% compared to the same period in 2019. In particular, the domestic market has fully recovered with 7.2 million passengers, up 3.5% compared to pre-pandemic.
Aviation industry recovery post-COVID-19
The uneven recovery pace across markets is creating opportunities and challenges for Vietnam Airlines, directly affecting HVN stock prospects:
| Market | Recovery level Q1/2024 | Forecast for full recovery | Impact on HVN revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic | 103.5% | Already recovered | Positive, growth 8-12%/year |
| Southeast Asia | 89.3% | Q3/2024 | Positive, especially routes to Singapore and Thailand |
| Northeast Asia | 72.6% | Q2/2025 | Japan market recovering well, China and South Korea slower |
| Europe | 68.2% | Q4/2025 | High profit margins, but fierce competition |
| North America | 65.4% | Q1/2026 | Strategic routes, but high operating costs |
Pocket Option experts assess that Southeast Asian and Northeast Asian markets (accounting for 65% of Vietnam Airlines' international revenue) will be the main drivers for HVN stock recovery in 2024-2025. In particular, the Japanese market is recovering quickly with a seat occupancy rate of 85% in Q1/2024, 5% higher than forecast, along with favorable visa policies for Vietnamese tourists.
Restructuring strategy and impact on HVN stock
Vietnam Airlines' 2023-2025 fleet restructuring plan has removed 8 A321ceo aircraft (high fuel consumption) and replaced them with 5 A321neo aircraft (15% fuel savings) and 2 Boeing 787-10 (40% increased capacity). This helps reduce Cost per Available Seat Kilometer (CASK) by 8.5%.
Vietnam Airlines is implementing 3 main financial restructuring solutions, each directly impacting HVN stock price:
- Issuing 8,000 billion VND convertible bonds (Q3/2024): May create 15-18% dilution pressure in the short term, but improves long-term capital structure
- Negotiating debt rescheduling with 15 banks (deadline until Q4/2024): If successful, will reduce debt repayment pressure from 5,800 billion VND/year to 3,200 billion VND/year
- Finding strategic partners (expected Q1/2025): In negotiations with 2 major Asian airlines and 1 investment fund to sell 15% stake
In particular, Vietnam Airlines is restructuring its flight network to increase frequency by 25% on high-margin routes (Japan, Australia, France) and reduce flights by 35% to destinations with fierce price competition (Thailand, Malaysia). This strategy has helped improve Revenue per Available Seat Kilometer (RASK) by 7.2% in Q1/2024.
Risk analysis and investment opportunities in HVN stock
Pocket Option has analyzed in detail the 5 biggest risks and 5 most potential opportunities of HVN stock in the 2024-2025 period:
| Risks | Opportunities |
|---|---|
| Pressure from 36,000 billion VND loan debt (as of Q4/2023) with average interest rate of 7.2%/year | Vietnam's aviation market forecast to grow 15%/year during 2024-2030 period (highest in Southeast Asia) |
| Lost 5.2% domestic market share to Vietjet and Bamboo Airways in 2023 | Fleet restructuring plan saves 8.5% fuel cost/seat-km |
| Aviation fuel prices increased 15% since early 2024, accounting for 35-40% of cost structure | Ability to attract strategic partners from 3 entities currently in negotiation (2 airlines and 1 investment fund) |
| USD/VND exchange rate risk (+5.3% in 2023) when 65% of costs are in USD | Strong recovery trend of Japanese aviation market (route with highest profit margin) |
| 15-18% dilution from the plan to issue 8,000 billion VND convertible bonds | P/B valuation = 0.94, 30% lower than reasonable level, creating room for price increase when positive news emerges |
According to Pocket Option's DCF valuation model, with the base scenario (Vietnam Airlines profitable from Q1/2026), the fair value of HVN stock is 18,500-20,000 VND, 25-35% higher than the current price. However, this is an investment suitable for investors who can tolerate large fluctuations and have a long-term view (24-36 months).
Comparing HVN stock with other airline stocks in the region
Comparing financial indicators with 5 major airlines in the region shows the relative position of Vietnam Airlines stock:
| Indicator | HVN (Vietnam Airlines) | AAV (AirAsia) | SIA (Singapore Airlines) | THAI (Thai Airways) | CPA (Cathay Pacific) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B (Q1/2024) | 0.94 | 2.15 | 1.53 | Negative | 1.28 |
| ROE (%) | -4.3 | 5.8 | 11.2 | Negative | 3.2 |
| Operating profit margin (%) | -1.8 | 4.5 | 9.2 | -5.3 | 3.6 |
| Debt/equity ratio | 3.42 | 2.53 | 1.18 | N/A | 2.17 |
| Load factor (Q1/2024) (%) | 80.3 | 85.7 | 87.2 | 76.5 | 82.8 |
| Number of international destinations | 52 | 165 | 138 | 38 | 120 |
The comparison shows that HVN stock is currently valued lowest in the group (P/B 0.94), reflecting current financial difficulties but also harboring the greatest potential for price increase when the situation improves. Compared to Thai Airways (also in restructuring process), Vietnam Airlines has a better position with higher load factor (80.3% vs 76.5%) and more international destinations (52 vs 38).
Pocket Option experts predict that by the end of 2025, Vietnam Airlines could narrow the profit margin gap with competitors if it successfully implements 3 solutions: debt restructuring, raising load factor above 85%, and optimizing route network to focus on high-margin markets.
Investment strategies for HVN stock for Vietnamese investors
Based on comprehensive analysis of Vietnam Airlines stock, Pocket Option proposes 3 detailed investment strategies suitable for different investor groups:
For long-term investors (24-36 months):
The "Gradual accumulation and hold" strategy is suitable for investors with long-term vision and ability to withstand price fluctuations:
- Divide investment capital into 5 equal parts and buy at 5 decreasing price levels: 15,000, 14,000, 13,500, 13,000, and 12,500 VND
- Set profit target of 35-45% in 24-36 months with target price of 20,000-22,000 VND
- Apply risk management strategy by cutting loss completely if price breaks below 11,000 VND with large volume
With this strategy, investors will achieve an average return of 30% in 30 months if Vietnam Airlines' restructuring plan succeeds and the airline returns to profitability in Q1/2026.
For medium-term investors (6-18 months):
The "Trading according to financial reporting cycles" strategy takes advantage of seasonal price fluctuations of HVN stock:
- Buy in the price range of 13,000-14,000 VND during the period 2-3 weeks before quarterly financial statements announcement (especially Q2 and Q4)
- Take profit when price increases 10-15% after positive information, or cut loss at 7% if results are worse than expected
- Focus on the timing of debt restructuring announcement (expected Q3/2024) and strategic partner negotiations (expected Q1/2025)
Pocket Option provides tools to monitor information release schedules and alerts for optimal buying/selling times for this strategy, helping investors capture 3-4 trading opportunities/year with a 65-70% success rate.
For short-term investors (1-4 weeks):
The "Technical breakout trading" strategy focuses on strong short-term movements of HVN stock:
- Use Bollinger Bands indicator to identify when price touches the lower band and RSI below 30 (oversold zone)
- Place buy orders when price bounces up from support zone with sudden volume increase >8 million shares/session
- Set profit target of 8-12% in 1-3 weeks with take-profit point at MA20 or cut loss at 5% immediately when trend is not confirmed
This strategy requires high discipline, daily market monitoring, and effective use of Pocket Option's technical analysis tools. Expected return is 25-35%/year with 8-10 successful trades.
Conclusion: Prospects of HVN stock and notes for investors
Vietnam Airlines stock is at an important turning point with 3 factors determining its 2024-2025 outlook: (1) Results of financial restructuring with the 36,000 billion VND debt, (2) Recovery speed of the international aviation market, especially Northeast Asia, and (3) Effectiveness of fleet and route network optimization strategy.
With P/B valuation = 0.94, 30% lower than reasonable level and 40% lower than industry average, HVN stock reflects most of the current difficulties but has not fully priced in the recovery potential in the next 24 months. If Vietnam Airlines succeeds with its restructuring plan and achieves positive profit from Q1/2026, the stock price could reach 20,000-22,000 VND, equivalent to a 35-45% increase from the current price.
However, this remains a high-risk investment with 3 main threats: (1) Dilution potential from additional share issuance/convertible bonds, (2) Risks from fuel price and USD/VND exchange rate fluctuations, and (3) Fierce competition from low-cost airlines like Vietjet and Bamboo Airways.
Pocket Option recommends 5 specific action points for investors interested in HVN stock:
- Allocate maximum 5-7% of total investment portfolio to HVN stock to hedge against risk
- Combine fundamental and technical analysis, paying special attention to information about restructuring and debt negotiations
- Build investment plans by level with clear entry points, exit points and risk management
- Monitor progress in addressing financial condition through debt ratios, EBITDA and cash flow from operating activities
- Prioritize gradual accumulation strategy instead of one-time investment, allowing plan adjustments according to actual developments
With a cautious approach, discipline and the right strategy, HVN stock can bring attractive profit opportunities for investors in the 2024-2026 cycle, while supporting Vietnam Airlines' recovery process - a business with an important role in Vietnam's economy.