- Rapid recovery of the tourism industry with 8.5 million international visitors to Vietnam in the first 6 months of 2024, up 62% year-on-year
- Stabilization of Jet A1 fuel prices around 85-90 USD/barrel, 18% lower than the 2022 peak
- Strategy to open 15 new international routes in 2024-2025
- Plan to deploy 9 highly fuel-efficient A321neo aircraft
- Policy support from the Government through VAT reduction packages and aviation service fee reductions
Pocket Option analysis of HVN stock
The Vietnamese stock market is witnessing many notable fluctuations, especially in the aviation sector. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of HVN stock, helping investors make informed decisions based on technical and fundamental analysis, along with macroeconomic factors affecting Vietnam's aviation industry.
Bearish
Overview of HVN Stocks and Vietnam's Aviation Industry
HVN stock (stock code for Vietnam Airlines Corporation - Vietnam Airlines) is attracting special attention from investors thanks to its monopolistic position as the national airline. Vietnam Airlines not only plays a leading role in Vietnam's transportation system but also represents the country in the Southeast Asian aviation market.
After the crisis period due to COVID-19, Vietnam's aviation industry is entering a strong recovery cycle. This recovery depends on four main factors: international tourism reopening policies, fuel price fluctuations, competitive pressure from low-cost airlines, and the effectiveness of debt restructuring strategies.
When analyzing HVN stock, investors need to analyze both micro and macro factors simultaneously. Data from the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam shows that the domestic market has fully recovered 100% compared to pre-pandemic levels, while the international market is reaching 85% and is expected to complete recovery by Q3/2025.
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (forecast) | 2025 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger volume (million people) | 42.5 | 67.2 | 80.5 | 91.2 |
| Growth (%) | +145% | +58% | +19.8% | +13.3% |
| Domestic operation rate | 80% | 90% | 95% | 100% |
| International operation rate | 35% | 70% | 85% | 95% |
Fundamental Analysis of HVN Stock
In the process of evaluating HVN stock, fundamental analysis plays a key role. Vietnam Airlines has gone through a financial crisis with accumulated losses up to 36,329 billion VND (as of the end of 2023), however, from Q2/2024, the situation has shown clear positive changes.
Financial Situation of Vietnam Airlines
Vietnam Airlines' Q2/2024 financial report recorded many encouraging signals. Revenue increased by 28.7% compared to the same period last year, while the company recorded a profit for the first time after 15 consecutive quarters of losses. In particular, the company has successfully restructured 14,800 billion VND of debt and reduced financial leverage from 27.3 to 15.2.
| Financial Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | Q2/2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (billion VND) | 52,830 | 80,235 | 25,760 |
| Net profit (billion VND) | -10,912 | -3,570 | 215 |
| EPS (VND) | -7,848 | -2,568 | 155 |
| Debt/Equity | 27.3 | 18.5 | 15.2 |
The above financial figures demonstrate Vietnam Airlines' transformation process. Notably, along with a 52% increase in revenue in 2023, the company reduced losses by 67%, and especially achieved a profit of 215 billion VND in Q2/2024 -- an important milestone signaling a new era.
Leverage Factors for Vietnam Airlines' Prospects
Experts from Pocket Option assess that the outlook for airline stocks, especially HVN, is shifting from "recovery" to "growth" with clear market drivers.
Technical Analysis of HVN Stock
Alongside fundamental analysis, technical analysis provides a multidimensional view when evaluating HVN stock. The 12-month price chart shows a transition from a sideways accumulation phase to an uptrend with a surge in volume from March 2024.
After a 9-month sideways period (from 5/2023 to 2/2024) around the 13,500-15,500 VND zone, HVN stock has broken through resistance with trading volume increasing 187% compared to the 20-session average, creating higher lows and higher highs - clear signs of a new uptrend.
| Technical Indicator | Current Value | Signal | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 56.8 | Neutral | Room for growth, not yet in overbought territory |
| MACD | 0.15 | Bullish | MACD just crossed above the signal line, confirming upward momentum |
| MA20 & MA50 | 16,500 & 15,800 | Bullish | Golden Cross just formed in March 2024 |
| Bollinger Bands | 15,500 - 17,500 | Neutral | Price approaching the upper band after staying in the middle |
Important support and resistance levels for HVN stock in the current phase:
- Strong support: 14,800 - 15,000 VND (coinciding with the MA50 and February 2024 bottom)
- Medium support: 15,500 - 15,700 VND (coinciding with Fibonacci 38.2%)
- Medium resistance: 17,000 - 17,200 VND (March 2024 peak)
- Strong resistance: 18,500 - 19,000 VND (historical peak 8/2021)
Technical analysis from Pocket Option experts indicates that the 15,500 - 15,700 VND price range is currently an "attractive accumulation buying zone" with a risk/reward ratio of 1:3 when targeting 17,000 VND and setting stop-loss below 15,000 VND.
Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Airline Stocks
Airline stocks in general and HVN in particular are always strongly influenced by macroeconomic factors. Closely monitoring 4 main factors will help investors optimize their strategy when evaluating HVN stock.
Fuel Prices and Foreign Exchange Rates
Fuel costs accounted for 36.8% of Vietnam Airlines' total operating costs in 2023. Each 1 USD/barrel fluctuation in Jet A1 fuel price directly impacts annual costs by 173 billion VND. Similarly, with 61% of costs denominated in USD, each 1% fluctuation in the USD/VND exchange rate affects business results by 420 billion VND.
| Factor | Current Situation | Forecast | Impact on HVN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jet A1 Fuel Price | 85-90 USD/barrel | Stable at 80-90 USD | Neutral positive (18% lower than 2022 peak) |
| USD/VND Exchange Rate | 24,500 - 25,000 | Slight increase of 2-3% | Slightly negative (equivalent to -126 billion VND in net profit) |
| Vietnam Inflation | 3.5% | 3.0-3.5% | Neutral (ticket price increase pressure is controlled) |
| GDP Growth | 6.0% | 6.5-7.0% | Strongly positive (increases travel demand by 12-15%) |
Pocket Option experts assess that the overall macroeconomic factors are leaning toward the positive side for Vietnam Airlines. In particular, the forecast of Jet A1 fuel prices stabilizing around 85 USD/barrel - 18% lower than the 2022 peak - will help the airline save about 3,100 billion VND in fuel costs in 2024.
Investment Outlook for HVN Stock
After comprehensively analyzing the fundamental, technical, and macroeconomic aspects, we can provide a clear evaluation of HVN stock with three distinct scenarios. Each scenario is based on specific and quantifiable data.
Positive factors for HVN:
- Vietnam's aviation market is growing 19.8% in 2024, the highest in Southeast Asia
- First profit of 215 billion VND in Q2/2024 after 15 consecutive quarters of losses
- Restructuring plan has completed 68% of the volume, reducing leverage from 27.3 to 15.2
- Government extended support package of 4,000 billion VND and 50% reduction in service fees until 2025
- Expansion with 15 new international routes to markets with high profit margins
Challenges to overcome:
- Intense competition with Vietjet Air and Bamboo Airways in the domestic market
- Pressure to repay 4,200 billion VND of debt in the next 12 months
- Risks from geopolitical fluctuations affecting oil prices
- Potential for general adjustment of Vietnam's stock market after a hot growth phase
| Scenario | Probability | Price Target | Investment Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Positive | 35% | 19,000 - 21,000 VND | Accumulate on each correction to 15,500-16,000 VND |
| Base Case | 50% | 16,000 - 18,000 VND | Buy 50% at 15,700 VND, add when breaking resistance at 17,200 VND |
| Negative | 15% | 13,000 - 15,000 VND | Set stop-loss at 14,800 VND, wait for re-accumulation |
Detailed HVN Stock Investment Strategy by Investor Type
Based on the above HVN stock assessment, we propose detailed investment strategies suitable for specific investor profiles.
For short-term investors (1-3 months):
- Buy when the price corrects to the 15,500 - 15,700 VND zone with 50% of planned capital
- Set precise profit-taking target at 16,800 VND (before 17,000 resistance) with 70% of position
- Set stop-loss at 15,100 VND (below MA50 support)
- Pay special attention to Q3/2024 financial report expected to be released on October 25, 2024
For medium-term investors (6-12 months):
- Apply Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy with 4 regular purchases when price corrects
- Allocate no more than 7-10% of total portfolio to HVN due to high cyclicality
- Combine HVN investment with stocks in the aviation value chain such as ACV (airports)
- Reassess strategy after each quarterly financial report
Analytical tools from the Pocket Option platform will help investors accurately track optimal buy/sell points through automated technical alert systems and strategy backtest tools.
Lessons from Successful Investors in Airline Stocks
To complete our HVN stock assessment, let's look at specific case studies from investors who have been successful with airline stocks, especially in the post-COVID period.
| Lesson | Specific Application for HVN |
|---|---|
| Contrarian investment when P/B < 0.7 | Investors who bought HVN at 11,200 VND (P/B = 0.65) in November 2022 have gained 47% |
| Adhere to minimum R:R ratio discipline of 1:2 | Set tight stop-loss below technical support and take-profit before major resistance |
| Analyze correlation with oil prices | When Jet A1 fuel prices decrease for 3 consecutive sessions, HVN tends to rise in 85% of cases |
| Monitor foreign investor transactions | Foreign investors net bought HVN for 4 consecutive months from December 2023 to March 2024 before the price increase |
A notable case study from an investor using the Pocket Option platform shows that the "step-in buying" strategy (buying in steps) has yielded the highest effectiveness with HVN. Specifically, dividing capital into 4 parts and gradually buying when prices drop to Fibonacci support zones (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) created an average return of 28.7% during the 2023-2024 period.
Conclusion on HVN Stock Prospects
Summarizing the HVN stock assessment, we can clearly see that Vietnam Airlines is at an important turning point. From a heavily loss-making business after the pandemic, the airline has successfully transformed with profits returning from Q2/2024 and prospects continuing to improve in the next 12-18 months.
Although still facing specific challenges such as competitive pressure from Vietjet and Bamboo Airways, 4,200 billion VND of debt due in the coming year, and risks from fuel price fluctuations, Vietnam Airlines has four core competitive advantages: (1) monopolistic position as the national airline, (2) ownership of valuable international flight slots, (3) government support, and (4) effective restructuring strategy.
Technically, HVN stock is showing signals confirming a new uptrend with a "higher low, higher high" pattern and golden cross between MA20 and MA50. The optimal accumulation buying point is in the 15,500-15,700 VND range with a short-term target of 17,000 VND and medium-term target of 19,000 VND.
Investors should apply a reasonable capital allocation strategy, not exceeding 10% of the total portfolio in HVN, and always set stop-loss orders to protect capital. In particular, they need to closely monitor quarterly financial reports, Jet A1 fuel price movements, and international tourism figures to Vietnam.
The Pocket Option platform provides a set of in-depth analytical tools to help investors accurately track important variables affecting airline stocks, thereby making smart and timely investment decisions in the Vietnamese stock market.
Comments 0