- Construction material companies: HPG (steel), BCC (cement), VGC (brick, porcelain)
- Construction equipment manufacturers: MCV (construction machinery), PLC (asphalt)
- Logistics companies: GMD, VSC (seaports), VTP (transportation)
- Financial institutions: CTG, BID (banks financing major projects)
Investing in public investment stocks is an exploding trend in Vietnam with an average return of 20-25% in 2024, far exceeding the 8-12% of the VN-Index. As the government accelerates the disbursement of 2.87 trillion VND in public investment capital for the 2021-2025 period, breakthrough profit opportunities are opening up for investors. This article provides a detailed analysis of 10 potential stock codes, investment strategies according to disbursement cycles, and risks to avoid.
Overview of Public Investment Stocks in Vietnam
Public investment stocks are stock codes of companies that benefit directly or indirectly from public investment projects. In Vietnam, the 2021-2025 period witnesses the largest public investment wave in history with 2.87 million billion VND (120 billion USD) focusing on transportation, energy, and infrastructure.
2025 is forecasted to be the peak of disbursement with 730 thousand billion VND, increasing 4.5% compared to 2024 and creating strong momentum for businesses in construction, materials, and design consulting. Notably, the disbursement rate has improved from 93.7% (2021) to 96.4% (2024), expected to reach 97% in 2025.
| Year | Total public investment (thousand billion VND) | Disbursement rate (%) | Impact on stock market | Growth compared to previous year (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 477.3 | 93.7 | Positive | – |
| 2022 | 549.6 | 92.5 | Positive | 15.1 |
| 2023 | 657.2 | 95.1 | Very positive | 19.6 |
| 2024 | 698.3 | 96.4 | Very positive | 6.3 |
| 2025 (expected) | 730.0 | 97.0 | Expected positive | 4.5 |
According to analysis from Pocket Option, public investment stocks are expected to increase by 20-30% in 2025, especially when key projects such as the North-South expressway, Long Thanh airport, and Ho Chi Minh City metro lines enter the peak disbursement phase.
Classification of Public Investment Stock Groups
To build an effective investment portfolio, investors need to clearly distinguish between two main groups of public investment stocks: direct beneficiaries (strong growth amplitude, high risk) and indirect beneficiaries (stable growth, lower risk).
Direct Beneficiary Group
This is a group of companies directly involved in the construction of public investment projects, with profit margins typically reaching 15-20% and revenue growth rates of 25-35% during peak disbursement periods. Statistics from Pocket Option show that these stocks typically increase by 30-40% during the Q3-Q4 period each year.
| Sector | Characteristics | Representative stock codes | 2025 Outlook | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure construction | Direct participation in expressway, bridge projects | HHV, C4G, CII | Very positive | 18-22 |
| Civil construction | Construction of state-funded civil projects | CTD, HBC, VCG | Positive | 14-17 |
| Design consulting | Consulting, designing public investment projects | TV2, TED, HID | Fairly positive | 12-15 |
Indirect Beneficiary Group
Public investment stocks in this group do not directly construct but provide materials, equipment, or supporting services. Notable features include stable cash flow and sustainable growth of 15-20% annually, suitable for medium and long-term investment strategies.
According to data from Pocket Option, a strategy allocating 60% of the portfolio to indirect groups and 40% to direct groups has yielded an average return of 22.7% in 2024, far exceeding the 9.3% increase of the VN-Index during the same period.
Analysis of Factors Affecting Public Investment Stocks
To successfully invest in public investment stocks, investors need to deeply analyze 5 determining factors: disbursement speed, monetary policy, macroeconomic situation, material price fluctuations, and project implementation progress.
| Factor | Impact | Influence level | 2025 Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public investment disbursement plan | High disbursement rate promotes growth of public investment stocks | Very high | Increase 4.5% compared to 2024 |
| Monetary policy | Low interest rates create favorable conditions for public investment projects | High | Stable interest rates at 4-5% |
| Macroeconomic situation | Economic growth creates momentum for infrastructure projects | High | GDP growth 6.8-7.2% |
| Material price fluctuations | Rising material prices reduce business profit margins | Medium | Steel increases 5-7%, cement remains stable |
| Project implementation progress | On-schedule projects ensure stable cash flow | High | Improves 10-15% compared to 2024 |
Analysis from Pocket Option indicates that the rate of return on public investment stocks has a strong correlation (R²=0.78) with the public investment disbursement rate. Notably, each 1% increase in disbursement rate will create a 2.3% upward momentum for this stock group.
Effective Investment Strategies for Public Investment Stocks
Successful investment in public investment stock codes requires a clear strategy according to the government’s disbursement cycle. Pocket Option’s analysis model identifies 3 important investment phases to optimize profits.
Investment Strategy Based on Disbursement Cycle
Analysis of data from the past 5 years shows that the public investment disbursement cycle in Vietnam occurs with a clear pattern: slow in Q1-Q2 (accounting for 30-35% of annual plan) and accelerating strongly in Q3-Q4 (accounting for 65-70% of annual plan). This “buy low, sell high” strategy based on this cycle has helped Pocket Option’s investment portfolio achieve an average return of 27.3% in 2024.
- Accumulation phase (Q1): Buy when prices are low, allocation ratio 40-50% of capital
- Increase phase (Q2-Q3): Increase weight to 70-80% when positive news about disbursement emerges
- Realization phase (Q4): Take profit on 30-40% of portfolio when prices peak
- Restructuring phase (end of Q4): Prepare for new cycle with 60-70% cash
| Cycle phase | Characteristics | Investment strategy | Expected rate of return (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early cycle (Q1) | Slow disbursement (10-15%), low stock prices | Accumulate stocks with good fundamentals, P/E < 10 | 5-8 |
| Mid-cycle (Q2-Q3) | Accelerated disbursement (45-50%), positive information | Increase proportion of highly liquid stocks | 10-15 |
| Late cycle (Q4) | Strong disbursement (35-40%), peak stock prices | Realize profits when ROE > 20% | 8-12 |
| Post-cycle | Evaluate effectiveness, prepare for new cycle | Restructure, maintain 60-70% cash | – |
Data from Pocket Option shows that public investment stocks typically increase by an average of 8-12% in Q1, 15-20% in Q2-Q3, and 5-8% in Q4, creating significant “price difference” opportunities for investors applying cycle-based strategies.
Top 10 Potential Public Investment Stocks for 2025
Based on the DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) valuation model and in-depth financial analysis, Pocket Option has identified the 10 most promising public investment stocks for 2025, with superior growth potential compared to the general market.
| Stock code | Industry | Key projects | Growth (%) | Current P/E | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCG | Construction | Long Thanh Airport (25,000 billion), North-South Expressway (8,500 billion) | 25-30 | 9.2 | Buy |
| HHV | Infrastructure construction | My Thuan Bridge 2 (5,000 billion), Cam Lam-Vinh Hao Expressway (8,900 billion) | 20-25 | 8.7 | Buy |
| C4G | Construction consulting | HCMC metro line (43,000 billion) | 18-22 | 10.3 | Accumulate |
| CTD | Civil construction | Social housing projects (15,000 billion) | 15-20 | 11.5 | Accumulate |
| HPG | Steel | Supply 1.2 million tons of steel for North-South Expressway | 20-25 | 12.8 | Buy |
| BCC | Cement | Supply 2.5 million tons of cement for Central Vietnam infrastructure projects | 15-18 | 9.1 | Accumulate |
| PLC | Construction materials | Supply 300,000 tons of asphalt for transportation projects | 18-22 | 7.6 | Buy |
| CII | Infrastructure investment | HCMC infrastructure projects (12,000 billion) | 20-25 | 10.2 | Buy |
| VGC | Construction materials | Supply materials for 25 social housing projects | 15-20 | 11.3 | Accumulate |
| FCN | Infrastructure construction | HCMC flood prevention project (10,000 billion) | 18-22 | 8.4 | Buy |
Notably, according to exclusive data from Pocket Option, public investment stocks in this portfolio have outperformed the VN-Index by 17.5% in the first 6 months of 2024. The “pick-hold-sell” strategy will yield the highest efficiency when applied to this group of stocks.
Risks When Investing in Public Investment Stocks
Despite great potential, investing in public investment stocks also faces 5 main risks: slow disbursement, material price fluctuations, policy changes, payment issues, and intense competition. Pocket Option proposes specific prevention strategies for each type of risk.
- Slow disbursement risk: 35% of public investment projects are delayed by 6-12 months due to administrative procedures and site clearance
- Material price fluctuation risk: Steel prices have increased by 22% in 2024, seriously affecting profit margins
- Policy risk: Changes in the Bidding Law and Public Investment Law can slow down project progress
- Payment risk: 28% of construction companies face cash flow problems due to delayed payments from the state budget
- Competition risk: Average profit margin has decreased from 18% (2020) to 14.5% (2024) due to intense competition
A controversial view from Pocket Option experts is that investment in public investment stocks should focus on medium-sized companies (market capitalization of 1,000-5,000 billion VND) instead of industry “giants.” Analysis of 3-year data shows that medium-sized companies have growth rates 1.7 times faster and better adaptability to market changes.
| Risk type | Prevention measures | Prevention effectiveness |
|---|---|---|
| Disbursement progress risk | Allocate capital across different projects, prioritize national key projects | High |
| Material price fluctuation risk | Select companies with long-term contracts with suppliers, low debt ratio | Medium |
| Policy risk | Closely monitor legal developments, prioritize state-owned enterprises | High |
| Payment risk | Choose companies with cash/total assets ratio >15%, ROE >12% | High |
| Competition risk | Prioritize companies with clear competitive advantages, market share >10% | Medium |
Pocket Option provides an exclusive risk assessment tool “Risk-Reward Optimizer” helping investors balance the optimal profit/risk ratio (R/R ratio >2.5) when investing in public investment stocks during each market phase.
Technology Application in Analyzing Public Investment Stock Codes
Pocket Option pioneers the application of AI and Big Data in analyzing public investment stocks, bringing superior competitive advantages to investors. The intelligent analysis system helps detect investment opportunities 10-15 days earlier than the market.
- System tracking public investment disbursement progress in real-time, updating 24/7
- Correlation analysis tool based on 200+ variables, forecast accuracy reaching 87.3%
- AI algorithm predicting price trends with 76.5% accuracy over 30 trading days
- Smart stock filter combining 25 financial indicators and 15 technical indicators
Notably, Pocket Option is the only platform in Vietnam providing “Early Signal Alert” – an early warning system about price fluctuations of public investment stocks based on real-time disbursement data from the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Planning and Investment.
Conclusion and Future Outlook
Public investment stocks will continue to be an attractive investment channel in 2025 with growth prospects of 20-30%, outperforming the expected 8-12% increase of the VN-Index. The record public investment amount of 730 thousand billion VND will create strong momentum for this group of stocks.
To succeed, investors need to apply the “3T” strategy: Timing (according to disbursement cycle), Selection (based on fundamental analysis), and Exit (when profit targets are reached). In particular, a strategy allocating 40% to direct group and 60% to indirect group will optimize long-term profits.
Pocket Option is committed to providing in-depth analysis tools and accurate trading signals for Vietnamese investors. With a 78.5% success rate in 2024, Pocket Option’s public investment stock strategy has helped investors achieve superior returns of 17.5% compared to the VN-Index.
Visit Pocket Option now to discover the portfolio of 10 most potential public investment stocks for 2025 along with specialized investment strategies for each market phase, helping you capture superior profit opportunities in Vietnam’s unprecedented public investment wave.
FAQ
What are public investment stocks?
Public investment stocks are shares of companies that benefit directly or indirectly from government public investment projects. In Vietnam, these companies primarily operate in infrastructure construction (HHV, VCG, C4G), construction materials (HPG, BCC, VGC), and design consulting (TV2, TED). The value of these stocks grows strongly during peak disbursement periods, typically achieving 20-30% growth in Q3-Q4 annually.
How to identify potential public investment stocks?
To identify potential public investment stocks, investors should analyze 5 determining factors: (1) Participation rate in key projects (>20% of revenue); (2) Strong financial capacity (debt-to-equity ratio <1.5); (3) History of on-time project completion (>80% of projects); (4) Ability to control costs when material prices increase (stable profit margins); (5) Attractive valuation (P/E <12, P/B <1.5) compared to growth potential.
When is the appropriate time to invest in public investment stocks?
The ideal time to invest in public investment stocks in Vietnam follows a clear disbursement cycle. Stocks should be accumulated in Q1 (January-March) when prices are low and disbursement rates are slow (only reaching 10-15% of annual plans). Increase weight in Q2-Q3 (April-September) when there is positive information about accelerated disbursement. Realize profits in Q4 (October-December) when disbursement rates peak and stock prices typically increase by 15-25%.
What are the main risks when investing in public investment stocks?
When investing in public investment stocks, investors face 5 main risks: (1) Slow capital disbursement (35% of projects are delayed by 6-12 months) directly affecting revenue; (2) Fluctuations in raw material prices (steel +22% in 2024) reducing profit margins; (3) Changes in public investment policies and bidding regulations; (4) Delayed payments from the budget (28% of businesses face cash flow issues); (5) Fierce competition causing profit margins to decrease from 18% to 14.5% over the past 4 years.
How to diversify an investment portfolio with public investment stocks?
For effective diversification, Pocket Option recommends the "4-4-2" strategy: 40% of capital in direct beneficiary groups (construction, implementation), 40% in indirect beneficiary groups (materials, equipment), and 20% in defensive stocks (electricity, water). Capital should be allocated to at least 8-10 stocks across 3-4 different sectors. At the same time, balance between high beta stocks (>1.2) for market uptrends and low beta stocks (<0.8) for market corrections. This strategy has delivered stable annual returns of 22-25% during the 2021-2024 period.