Pocket Option explores the upside potential of NAS stock code
In-depth analysis of NAS stock code (Noibai Airport Services Joint Stock Company) through expert perspective, with updated Q3/2023 financial data and the latest technical indicators. The article provides specific investment strategies, important price levels and trend forecasts in the context of Vietnam's aviation industry's strong recovery, helping investors make timely and effective decisions.
Overview of NAS Stock Code and Current Market Position
NAS stock code belongs to Noibai Airport Services Company (NASCO), a business with 23 years of experience providing services at Noi Bai Airport. Listed on the UPCOM exchange since November 2016 with the code NAS, the company currently has a market capitalization of 332.5 billion VND and an average liquidity of 42,800 shares/session in the last 20 sessions.
NASCO holds a 35% market share in ground services and 42% in airline catering at Noi Bai Airport, serving 18 domestic and international airlines. The company's main assets include airport service exploitation rights (until 2030), a ground service vehicle fleet (85 vehicles of various types), and a meal processing facility with a capacity of 15,000 meals/day.
In the context of Vietnam's aviation industry's strong recovery after the pandemic, NAS stock has become a focus of attention for many investors. According to data from the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam, in the first 9 months of 2023, total passenger traffic through airports reached 79.6 million, up 35.9% compared to the same period in 2022 and reaching 89.5% compared to 2019 (pre-Covid). At Noi Bai alone, passenger traffic reached 23.4 million (+33.7% YoY), of which international passengers reached 7.68 million, up 312% compared to the same period.
| Financial Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 9M/2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (billion VND) | 145.2 | 168.5 | 289.7 | 282.1 (+47.2% YoY) |
| Net profit (billion VND) | 1.7 | 3.8 | 21.5 | 25.8 (+83.6% YoY) |
| Net profit margin (%) | 1.17 | 2.25 | 7.42 | 9.15 |
| EPS (VND) | 204 | 458 | 2,587 | 3,106 (last 4 quarters) |
NASCO's business results show outstanding recovery after the pandemic, with the net profit margin increasing from 1.17% in 2020 to 9.15% in the first 9 months of 2023. Notably, Q3/2023 profit reached 10.2 billion VND (+92.5% YoY), the highest in the company's operating history, thanks to the strong increase in international passengers and the optimization of cost structure.
According to the latest data from Pocket Option, NAS stock is trading at a P/E of 12.8 times (based on trailing 12-month EPS), 15-18% lower than the aviation services industry average (15.1 times). The current P/B ratio is 1.83 times, ROE is 24.3%, and the dividend yield is maintained at 5.8% - among the stocks with stable dividend yields on UPCOM.
Fundamental Analysis: 5 Key Growth Drivers of NASCO
In-depth analysis of NASCO's business operations and finances shows that the company possesses sustainable competitive advantages and has significant growth potential in the next 12-18 months. Below are the 5 key growth drivers pushing the value of NAS stock.
Monopolistic Position and High Profitability
NASCO holds a near-monopoly position in some services at Noi Bai Airport, creating solid entry barriers and ensuring stable cash flow. Specifically, the company has the following competitive advantages:
- Long-term operating license: NASCO has been granted a license to provide ground services and catering at Noi Bai until 2030, with priority rights for extension, ensuring long-term stability in business operations.
- Exclusive contracts: The company has exclusive service contracts with 8 international airlines (accounting for 42% market share at Noi Bai), including Emirates, Qatar Airways, and ANA - airlines with high profit margins.
- Operational leverage: With 70% fixed costs, each 10% increase in revenue will help increase profits by about 25-30%, creating a powerful leverage effect during the aviation industry's recovery phase.
- Pricing power: Since airlines cannot provide their own ground services at Noi Bai, NASCO has the ability to negotiate higher prices, maintaining a gross profit margin of 22-25% for aviation services.
Cash flow analysis shows that NASCO has significantly improved its profitability with ROE increasing from 5.8% in 2020 to the current 24.3%, much higher than the industry average (17.5%). The company's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is 11.2%, lower than ROE by 13.1 percentage points, proving that the company is creating significant added value for shareholders.
| Business Segment | 9M/2023 Revenue (billion VND) | Proportion (%) | Gross Profit Margin (%) | YoY Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aviation Services | 183.4 | 65 | 22.8 | +43.5 |
| Non-aviation Services | 70.5 | 25 | 36.2 | +58.7 |
| Commercial | 28.2 | 10 | 14.5 | +32.9 |
Revenue Diversification and Cost Structure Optimization
NASCO has been implementing a revenue diversification strategy, reducing dependence on traditional aviation services. Since 2021, the company has increased the proportion of non-aviation services from 18% to the current 25%, with a target of reaching 30-35% by 2025.
The non-aviation services segment (rental of counters, advertising, event areas) has a particularly high gross profit margin (36.2%), almost double that of aviation services (22.8%). In Q3/2023, revenue from this segment reached 28.6 billion VND, up 58.7% year-on-year, thanks to expanding the rental area by an additional 850m² and increasing the average rental price by 15%.
In parallel with revenue diversification, NASCO has also successfully implemented a cost optimization program since Q4/2022 with notable results:
- Personnel restructuring: Reduced indirect labor by 12%, saving 8.4 billion VND/year, while applying performance-based salary policies to 65% of direct labor.
- Operational optimization: Applied schedule management software for vehicles and ground service staff, helping to increase usage efficiency by 18% and saving 6.2 billion VND/year in fuel and maintenance costs.
- Focus on high-margin customers: Proactively not renewing contracts with 2 airlines with low profit margins, allocating resources to serve premium airlines with 35-50% higher profit margins.
- Contract renegotiation: Successfully increased service prices by an average of 8-12% with 11/18 airlines from Q2/2023.
These solutions have helped increase NASCO's net profit margin from 7.42% in 2022 to 9.15% in the first 9 months of 2023, and it is expected to reach 10.2-10.5% in 2024 according to the plan approved by the Board of Directors.
Pocket Option assesses that the revenue diversification strategy combined with cost optimization will continue to be an important driver, helping NASCO maintain double-digit profit growth in the next 2-3 years, even if the aviation industry's growth rate shows signs of slowing down.
Technical Analysis and NAS Stock Price Forecast
Analyzing technical factors and price models plays an important role in helping investors identify entry points, exit points, and effective risk management measures for NAS stock. Current analysis shows some noteworthy signals.
The price chart of NAS stock over the past 12 months shows 4 distinct phases with important movement points:
- Accumulation phase (10/2022-01/2023): The stock fluctuated in a narrow range of 25,800-30,200 VND with an average volume of 24,300 shares/session, creating a solid foundation for the next price increase.
- Breakout phase (02-03/2023): The stock price surged from 28,200 to 42,800 VND (+51.8%) with explosive volume (82,500 shares/session), creating momentum after announcing Q4/2022 results exceeding forecasts by 27%.
- Correction phase (04-06/2023): Price corrected to 35,500-38,800 VND in a "flag pattern" with decreasing volume, creating accumulation opportunities for investors.
- Current trend (07-10/2023): The stock is completing a "cup and handle" pattern with the cup bottom at 35,500 VND and the handle fluctuating between 39,000-41,500 VND.
Analysis of key technical indicators provides important signals for the upcoming trend:
| Technical Indicator | Current Value | Signal | Trading Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 58.7 | Positive | Stable uptrend, still room before overbought zone (70+) |
| MACD (12,26,9) | +0.68 | Buy | MACD line just crossed above signal line with expanding histogram |
| Bollinger Bands | 39,200 - 42,500 | Neutral+ | Price fluctuating near middle band, bands beginning to widen |
| Moving Averages | MA20: 40,200 > MA50: 38,600 > MA200: 35,700 | Long-term uptrend | MA structure confirms medium-long term uptrend |
| Ichimoku Cloud | Price above cloud, Tenkan-sen > Kijun-sen | Buy | Uptrend confirmed with cloud expanding upward |
Particularly important is the analysis of trading volume. In the last 10 sessions, the average volume reached 53,600 shares/session, 25% higher than the average of the previous 30 sessions. Up sessions had an average volume of 68,200 shares/session, while down sessions only had an average volume of 32,500 shares/session - an extremely positive signal showing weak selling pressure and buying power dominating.
According to Pocket Option's analysis, NAS stock is preparing for an important breakout with the following strategic price levels:
| Important Price Zone | Price Level (VND/share) | Technical Significance | Trading Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Resistance #1 | 42,800 - 43,200 | March 2023 historic high, 61.8% Fibonacci extension | Partial profit-taking zone (30-40% position) for short-term trades |
| Strong Resistance #2 | 47,500 - 48,000 | 100% Fibonacci extension, target of the "cup and handle" pattern | Main target zone for medium-term positions, potential +18-20% |
| Short-term Support | 39,800 - 40,200 | MA20 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement | Buying zone during short-term corrections |
| Medium-term Support | 37,500 - 38,000 | Bottom of the "handle" pattern and MA50 | Accumulation buying zone with stop-loss below 36,500 VND |
| Long-term Support | 35,500 - 36,000 | Bottom of the "cup" pattern, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement | Strong buying zone for long-term positions if price returns to test |
Combining the forming "cup and handle" pattern with buy signals from technical indicators, especially MACD and Ichimoku, it can be predicted that NAS stock will have an important breakout when it surpasses the resistance zone of 42,800-43,200 VND. The price target in the next 3-4 months could reach 47,500-48,000 VND, equivalent to an 18-20% increase from the current price.
However, investors should note that to confirm a new uptrend, the stock needs to break through the resistance zone of 42,800-43,200 VND with large trading volume (over 80,000 shares/session). If unsuccessful, the price may correct to test the support zone of 38,000-39,000 VND before continuing the uptrend.
5 Key Macroeconomic Factors Affecting NAS Stock Prospects
To have a comprehensive view of investment prospects in NAS stock, analyzing macroeconomic factors affecting the aviation industry and especially operations at Noi Bai Airport is extremely important. Below are 5 key factors to monitor in the next 12-18 months.
Strong Recovery of International Aviation
The international aviation market is recovering at a faster rate than expected. According to detailed data from the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam, international passengers to Vietnam by air in the first 9 months of 2023 reached 8.9 million, up 308% compared to the same period in 2022 and reaching 80.2% compared to pre-Covid levels (2019).
At Noi Bai Airport, international passenger traffic reached 7.68 million in the first 9 months of the year, with the growth rate increasing month over month. Particularly, Q3/2023 witnessed a recovery of 92.8% compared to Q3/2019, and is expected to exceed pre-Covid levels in Q1/2024.
This is especially beneficial for NASCO because services provided for international flights have 30-40% higher profit margins than domestic flights. If this trend continues, NASCO's gross profit margin could improve by an additional 1.5-2 percentage points in 2024.
| Macroeconomic Factor | Current Developments | 2024 Forecast | Impact on NASCO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger Traffic through Noi Bai | 23.4 million (9M/2023), +33.7% YoY | 33-35 million (+10-15% YoY) | Extremely positive: Increase revenue by 15-18%, profit margin +1.5-2% |
| International Tourists to Vietnam | 8.9 million (9M/2023), +308% YoY | 14-15 million (exceeding 2019 levels) | Positive: Increase proportion of high-margin services |
| Aviation Fuel Price | Jet A1: $98/barrel, -12% YTD | Forecast stable at $90-100/barrel | Indirect positive: Helps airlines increase flight frequency |
| Noi Bai Expansion Project | Approved, preparing for T3 terminal construction | Ground-breaking Q2/2024, completion in 2026 | Medium-term: Potential for business expansion from 2026 |
| Premium Tourism Trend | Average international tourist spending +22% vs 2019 | Continue to increase by 10-15% | Positive: Increased demand for value-added services |
Notably, NASCO is preparing for the Noi Bai Airport expansion plan with Terminal T3, which has a capacity of 30 million passengers/year. NASCO's management has confirmed that they are negotiating to secure service operating rights at the new terminal, with expectations to increase operational area by 40-45% from 2026.
Pocket Option assesses that with international aviation recovering faster than expected, coupled with the increasing premium tourism trend (average spending of international tourists has increased by 22% compared to pre-pandemic), NASCO will benefit doubly from both volume and price factors in the next 12-24 months.
Detailed Investment Strategy with NAS Stock for Each Investor Group
Based on comprehensive analysis of fundamentals, technicals, and macroeconomic factors, we propose specific investment strategies with NAS stock for each investor group, depending on objectives, risk appetite, and holding period.
- Strategy for short-term investors (1-4 weeks): Take advantage of technical fluctuations in the price channel of 39,000-43,000 VND. Buy when price corrects to the 39,800-40,200 VND zone with low volume and RSI in the 45-50 zone. Set selling target at 42,800-43,200 VND (+7-8%). Tight stop-loss at 38,800 VND (-3-4%) to preserve capital. Risk/reward ratio (R/R) = 2.0.
- Strategy for medium-term investors (1-6 months): Accumulate stock in the 38,000-41,000 VND zone and hold until after the company announces Q4/2023 results (expected January 20-25, 2024). Allocate capital in 3 parts: 40% at current price, 30% if it corrects to 39,000-40,000 VND, and 30% if it reaches 37,500-38,500 VND. Price target 47,500-48,000 VND (+18-20%). Wider stop-loss at 36,500 VND (-10%) based on important technical support level.
- Strategy for long-term investors (over 6 months): View NAS as a value investment with growth potential of 25-30%/year and dividend of 5-7%. Accumulate during market corrections, especially when the VN-Index drops sharply. Apply Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy quarterly to build position. Price target by end-2024 is 55,000-58,000 VND (+35-40%) based on 2024 EPS forecast of 4,200-4,500 VND and target P/E of 13x.
Important principles when trading NAS stock:
| Principle | Specific Application with NAS | Benefit |
|---|---|---|
| Risk Management | Limit maximum 5-7% of portfolio to NAS; adhere to set stop-loss | Protect capital during strong market fluctuations |
| Diversification | Combine NAS with AST, SCS, or SGN stocks to reduce specific risks | Disperse industry risk, optimize portfolio performance |
| Catalyst Recognition | Note results announcement date (January 20-25, 2024), information on Noi Bai passenger volume | Capture price increase opportunities after positive information |
| Partial Profit-Taking Strategy | Take profit on 30-40% position at 42,800-43,200 VND, 30% at 47,500-48,000 VND, hold 30-40% long-term | Optimize profit, reduce psychological pressure when holding |
| Reverse Order | Wait for break of 43,000 VND resistance with large volume, then buy more on corrections | Leverage momentum of new uptrend |
Pocket Option provides many in-depth analytical tools to help investors monitor and trade effectively with NAS stock. In particular, the "Price Action Scanner" tool helps identify important candlestick patterns, while "Volume Profile Analysis" identifies price zones with high concentrated trading volume - important support/resistance levels.
A notable viewpoint that not everyone agrees with: Although typically considered a cyclical stock, NAS can be viewed as a "defensive stock" in the aviation investment portfolio. This is because NASCO provides essential services for airport operations, less affected by airline ticket price fluctuations or competition between airlines. Even when airlines face profit pressure due to rising fuel costs, NASCO can maintain stable profit margins as long as passenger numbers don't drop significantly.
Detailed Comparison of NAS Stock with 3 Peer Companies
To accurately assess the competitive position and growth potential of NAS stock, comparing it with companies in the same aviation services industry is very necessary. The analysis table below compares NAS with 3 similar businesses: SCS (Saigon Cargo Service Corporation), AST (Taseco Air Services JSC) and SGN (Saigon Ground Services JSC).
| Indicator (Q3/2023) | NASCO (NAS) | SCS | AST | SGN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Business Area | Ground services, catering | Aviation cargo warehouse | Airport commercial services | Ground services, warehousing |
| Market Cap (billion VND) | 332.5 | 7,850 | 287 | 5,200 |
| P/E (TTM) | 12.8 | 14.5 | 10.2 | 17.8 |
| Current P/B | 1.83 | 3.67 | 1.24 | 3.35 |
| 9M/2023 Revenue Growth (%) | +47.2 | +21.5 | +63.7 | +32.8 |
| 9M/2023 Net Profit Growth (%) | +83.6 | +18.2 | +302 | +24.5 |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | 9.15 | 62.8 | 6.2 | 36.7 |
| ROE (%) | 24.3 | 25.2 | 12.1 | 18.8 |
| 2023E Dividend Yield (%) | 5.8 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 7.5 |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 0.32 | 0.15 | 0.87 | 0.28 |
From the comparison table above, NAS stock has several notable highlights:
- Superior growth: NASCO achieved a profit growth of 83.6% in the first 9 months of 2023, significantly higher than SCS (18.2%) and SGN (24.5%), only behind AST (302% but from a low base after Covid).
- Highest ROE in the group: NASCO's ROE reached 24.3%, nearly equal to SCS (25.2%) and significantly higher than AST (12.1%) and SGN (18.8%), showing good capital utilization efficiency.
- Reasonable valuation: With a P/E of 12.8 times, NAS stock is valued lower than SCS (14.5x) and SGN (17.8x), only higher than AST (10.2x) - the company with the lowest profit margin in the group.
- Healthy financial structure: NASCO's debt/equity ratio is low (0.32), only higher than SCS (0.15) and much lower than AST (0.87).
NASCO's biggest weakness compared to competitors is its much lower net profit margin than SCS and SGN due to business characteristics. SCS and SGN focus on warehouse services and ground services at larger airports (Tan Son Nhat), while NASCO mainly provides services at Noi Bai with a smaller scale.
However, this is also an opportunity for NASCO: the company is diversifying into non-aviation services with high profit margins (36.2%) and benefiting from the recovery of international aviation at Noi Bai. If NASCO continues to improve its profit margin to 10-11% in 2024 as planned, the P/E valuation gap with SGN may narrow, creating upside potential.
Pocket Option assesses that with the current profit growth rate (>80% YoY) and high ROE (24.3%), NAS stock deserves to be valued at a P/E of 15-16 times, equivalent to the industry average. This creates room for an 18-25% price increase from the current level, consistent with the technical target of 47,500-48,000 VND in the next 3-6 months.
Conclusion: Prospects and Optimal Strategy with NAS Stock
After comprehensive analysis of NAS stock from multiple angles, important conclusions and optimal strategies can be drawn for Vietnamese investors.
NASCO is in a strong growth cycle with impressive business results in the first 9 months of 2023: revenue reached 282.1 billion VND (+47.2% YoY) and net profit reached 25.8 billion VND (+83.6% YoY). Notably, the net profit margin has improved from 1.17% in 2020 to the current 9.15% thanks to revenue diversification strategy and cost optimization.
Fundamentally, the company possesses sustainable competitive advantages: near-monopoly position at Noi Bai Airport, long-term contracts with major airlines, flexible cost structure, and high operational leverage. This helps NASCO benefit doubly from the aviation industry's recovery, especially the strongly growing international segment.
Technically, NAS stock is forming a "cup and handle" pattern with breakout potential when surpassing the resistance zone of 42,800-43,200 VND. The price target in the next 3-6 months is 47,500-48,000 VND (+18-20%), provided that trading volume increases strongly when breaking resistance.
Compared to peer companies, NASCO has the highest profit growth rate, ROE among the top, but P/E at a medium-low level (12.8 times). This creates an opportunity for positive revaluation in the coming time.
Based on all the above analyses, the optimal strategy for investors is:
- Current accumulation phase (Q4/2023): Build position in the 38,000-41,000 VND price zone, prioritizing buying when price corrects to the MA20 support zone (40,200 VND) or MA50 (38,600 VND). Allocate 40-50% of planned capital.
- Breakout phase (Q1/2024): Add 20-30% when price breaks resistance at 42,800-43,200 VND with large volume, confirming new uptrend. Set partial profit-taking targets at 47,500-48,000 VND.
- Long-term strategy (2024-2025): Hold 30-40% position with target of 55,000-58,000 VND by end-2024, based on 2024 EPS forecast of 4,200-4,500 VND and target P/E of 13x.
Pocket Option recommends investors carefully monitor these important factors: (1) Q4/2023 business results expected to be announced January 20-25, 2024; (2) Monthly international passenger data through Noi Bai; (3) Progress of Noi Bai Airport expansion project; and (4) Trading volume behavior when the stock approaches resistance zones.
With solid fundamentals, strong growth prospects, and reasonable valuation, NAS stock deserves to be an attractive investment choice in Vietnamese investors' portfolios, especially for those wishing to get ahead of the aviation industry's recovery trend in the 2023-2025 period.