- Strategic location in Hai Phong – the northern economic gateway with electricity demand increasing by 12%/year
- Long-term PPA contract (20 years) with EVN, ensuring stable revenue until 2035
- Advanced CFB boiler technology, helping reduce coal consumption by 15% compared to traditional technology
- Experienced management team with an average of 22 years in the power industry
- Regular cash dividend policy of 8-10%/year – the highest among power sector stocks
In the context of Vietnam's volatile energy market, Hai Phong thermal power stocks (HND) emerge as a potential investment opportunity with attractive dividends of 8-10% per year. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the factors affecting HND during 2025-2026, helping you make smart investment decisions as Vietnam's electricity market transforms.
Fundamental Analysis: HND – A Sustainable Profit Machine in an Era of Volatility
Looking deep into HND’s business “machinery,” what do we see? Pocket Option has conducted a detailed analysis of key financial indicators and discovered the following noteworthy points:
| Financial Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (Forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (billion VND) | 9,872 | 10,456 | 11,200 | 12,050 |
| Net Profit (billion VND) | 520 | 642 | 715 | 780 |
| EPS (VND) | 1,050 | 1,285 | 1,430 | 1,560 |
| ROE (%) | 9.2 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 11.8 |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.55 |
The highlight in HND’s financial picture is the debt-to-equity ratio steadily decreasing over the years, from 0.68 (2022) to 0.55 (forecast 2025). This shows that the company is gradually reducing debt pressure and increasing financial stability – an extremely important factor in the current context of interest rate fluctuations.
Competitive Advantages: Why Does HND Excel in the Industry?
It’s not by chance that HND stock continuously attracts large capital flows from institutional investors. Let’s analyze the competitive advantages that make HND a “big player” in the industry:
Notably, HND invested 245 billion VND in a new exhaust gas filtration system in 2024, helping reduce emissions by 30% and strictly complying with new environmental regulations. This is a “smart move” helping Hai Phong thermal power stocks avoid future environmental regulatory risks.
Technical Analysis: Decoding HND Stock Price Trends
Can we predict the peaks and troughs of HND stock? While no one has a “crystal ball” to see the future, technical analysis provides important clues. Below is the price movement of HND stocks over the past 3 years:
| Period | Price (VND) | Average Trading Volume/Day | Impacting Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1/2022 | 14,500 | 568,230 | Energy market recovery after pandemic |
| Q3/2023 | 18,200 | 1,256,780 | Q2/2023 Net profit increased 28.5% YoY, 9% cash dividend |
| Q1/2024 | 16,800 | 875,450 | Coal price increased 18%, pressure on profit margins |
| Q1/2025 | 19,500 | 1,568,920 | Electricity price adjusted up 4.5%, Q4/2024 results exceeded plan by 15% |
The HND price chart is forming a “cup and handle” pattern – a positive technical signal that often appears before strong price rallies. The noteworthy point is the sudden increase in trading volume (over 1.5 million shares/day) in March 2025, accompanied by an increase in institutional money flow into the stock.
Price Trend Forecast: Which Price Zones to Buy and Sell?
Pocket Option’s analysis points out important price zones that investors need to closely monitor:
| Type | Price Level (VND) | Expected Volume | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Support 1 | 18,500 | 1.8-2.2 million shares/day | 75% |
| Strong Support 2 | 17,200 | 2.5-3.0 million shares/day | 60% |
| Important Resistance 1 | 20,200 | 1.5-1.8 million shares/day | 80% |
| Important Resistance 2 | 21,500 | 2.0-2.5 million shares/day | 65% |
A particularly important point: the RSI on the daily chart is at 68 – approaching the overbought zone (70), while MACD is showing positive divergence. This signals the possibility of a short-term adjustment before continuing the uptrend. Smart investors will place partial buy orders at support zones of 18,500 and 17,200, rather than going “all-in” at one price level.
Macroeconomic Factors: Which “Winds” are Blowing on Hai Phong Thermal Power Stocks?
Like a boat at sea, HND stock is influenced by macroeconomic “winds” of the economy. Prudent investors will not overlook the following key factors:
- Power Plan VIII: prioritizing renewable energy development but still maintaining an important role for thermal power until 2030
- Electricity pricing policy: roadmap for 3-5% annual electricity price increases until 2030
- Global coal price fluctuations: forecast to increase 8-12% in 2025-2026 due to geopolitical tensions
- Vietnam’s “Net Zero” strategy: pressure for green transition, but with a long-term roadmap to 2050
- GDP growth rate: forecast at 6.5-7.0% in 2025-2026, driving electricity demand up 8-10%/year
In particular, our latest research indicates that each 1% GDP growth will lead to approximately 1.5% increase in electricity demand, creating favorable conditions for HND to grow in volume and revenue over the next 5 years.
| Macroeconomic Factor | Impact on HND | Degree of Influence | Outlook 2025-2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | Positive | Strong | 6.5-7.0%, driving electricity demand up 8-10% |
| Coal Price | Negative | Strong | Increase 8-12% due to geopolitical tensions and supply shortages |
| Electricity Pricing Policy | Positive | Very Strong | Roadmap for 3-5% increase/year until 2030 |
| Environmental Regulations | Negative (long-term) | Medium | Pressure to reduce emissions, but with a long-term roadmap |
| Interest Rates | Neutral | Medium | Stable at 5-5.5% in 2025-2026 |
Investment Strategy: How to “Harvest Sweet Fruits” from HND Stock
How to optimize profits when investing in HND stock? Pocket Option suggests the following specific strategies:
Long-term Investment Strategy: “Harvesting Dividends”
With regular dividends of 8-10%/year, HND is a “golden egg-laying hen” for long-term investors. Let’s look at a specific investment scenario:
| Scenario | Initial Investment (100 million VND) | After 3 Years (without reinvesting dividends) | After 3 Years (with dividend reinvestment) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Scenario | 5,128 shares @ 19,500 VND | 145.6 million (+45.6%) | 159.3 million (+59.3%) |
| Positive Scenario | 5,128 shares @ 19,500 VND | 158.9 million (+58.9%) | 174.8 million (+74.8%) |
| Conservative Scenario | 5,128 shares @ 19,500 VND | 126.7 million (+26.7%) | 138.2 million (+38.2%) |
To optimize this strategy, apply the DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) method: divide the investment amount into 4-5 parts and buy periodically on a quarterly basis, especially focusing on adjustments to strong support zones.
Short-Medium Term Trading Strategy: “Wave Hunting”
Short-medium term investors can apply the “wave hunting” strategy with HND, taking advantage of the 10-15% fluctuation range in 3-6 month cycles:
- Buy when the price hits the support zone of 17,200-18,500 VND, with trading volume surging
- Set a stop-loss level 5-7% below the purchase price
- Sell 70% of shares when the price hits the resistance zone of 20,200-21,500 VND
- Keep 30% for the long-term uptrend
- Apply the trailing stop method to protect profits during strong increases
Important note: Pocket Option provides tools to set automatic price alerts when HND touches important technical thresholds, helping investors not miss trading opportunities.
Risk Analysis: Potential “Traps” When Investing in Hai Phong Thermal Power Stocks
No investment is without risk, and HND is no exception. Let’s “walk in the shoes” of potential risks:
| Risk Type | Specific Description | Probability | Impact Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Risk | Sudden changes in electricity trading mechanisms, electricity price caps | 25% in the next 2 years | High (can reduce stock price by 15-20%) |
| Fuel Price Risk | Coal price surges >20% due to geopolitical conflicts | 40% in 2025 | High (directly affects profit margins) |
| Environmental Risk | New regulations on CO2 emissions, carbon tax | 30% from 2026 onwards | Medium-High (increases operating costs) |
| Technical Risk | Major technical incident at the plant | 5% annually | Very High (operational suspension, reduced output) |
| Market Risk | Strong market adjustment due to macro factors | 50% in 2025 | Medium (10-15% decrease following general market) |
To “defend” against these risks, investors need to: (1) allocate capital appropriately, not more than 10-15% of the portfolio in one stock; (2) establish clear stop-loss levels; (3) regularly monitor information from HND’s management about fuel price developments and operational conditions; and (4) diversify the portfolio with stocks that have low correlation with HND.
Comparing HND with Industry “Competitors”: Who is the “Dividend King”?
For a multi-dimensional view, let’s compare HND with industry “competitors”:
| Indicator (Q1/2025) | HND | PPC | POW | NT2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.2 | 12.8 | 18.5 | 14.7 |
| P/B | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 8.5 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 7.6 |
| ROE (%) | 10.5 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 10.1 |
| 5-Year EPS Growth (%) | 7.8 | 5.2 | 9.5 | 6.9 |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 0.58 | 0.42 | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| Current Ratio | 1.75 | 1.92 | 1.48 | 1.63 |
This analysis shows that HND is in a “golden balance” position in the power industry: attractive dividend yield (second only to PPC), debt/equity ratio at a safe level, and 5-year EPS growth of 7.8% – significantly higher than PPC and NT2. Although HND’s P/E is higher than PPC but lower than POW, it reflects market expectations for stable growth potential in the future.
Controversial view: Many analysts believe PPC is more attractive with the highest dividend yield in the industry, but 5-year historical data shows that HND has more sustainable and less volatile EPS growth. For investors who prefer a balance between growth and dividends, HND is a more reasonable choice in the long run.
Conclusion: HND – A Reliable Pillar for the 2025-2026 Investment Portfolio
Hai Phong thermal power stocks represent a rare combination of cash flow stability, attractive dividends, and price appreciation potential. In the context of Vietnam’s still volatile market, HND is a “cornerstone” helping to balance your investment portfolio.
Specific data indicates that with a ROE of 10.5%, dividend yield of 8.5%, and average EPS growth of 7.8%/year, HND has the potential to deliver a total return of 13-15%/year during 2025-2027 – an enviable figure in the current low interest rate environment.
Pocket Option recommends allocating 7-10% of your investment portfolio to HND stock, combined with growth stocks from the technology, retail, and banking sectors to create a balanced investment portfolio. The optimal strategy is to gradually buy at strong support zones of 18,500 and 17,200 VND, with a 2-3 year holding view.
Most importantly, HND is not just a financial investment but also a way you contribute to the development of the national energy system – a key factor in Vietnam’s economic growth journey in the coming years.
FAQ
Is HND stock suitable for long-term investment?
Absolutely suitable. HND has characteristics of a "defensive" stock with stable cash flow and attractive dividend policy of 8-10%/year. Analysis of the past 5 years shows that total returns (including dividends) averaged 12-15%/year, higher than savings interest rates by 4-6%. Important note: HND should be placed in a long-term portfolio with a weight of 7-10%, combined with other growth stocks to optimize performance.
What is the best time to buy HND stock?
The ideal time to buy HND is when: (1) the price adjusts to strong support zones of 18,500 VND or 17,200 VND with increasing trading volume; (2) after the company announces positive business results but the price has not yet reacted; (3) 1-2 months before the dividend ex-date (usually in April-May each year); and (4) during general market corrections due to macroeconomic factors, when HND typically decreases less than other stocks.
What factors most strongly affect HND stock price in 2025-2026?
The three most important factors affecting HND in 2025-2026 are: (1) Electricity pricing policy - each 1% increase in electricity selling price can increase HND's profit by 3-4%; (2) Coal price fluctuations - accounting for 65-70% of production costs, each 10% increase in coal price can reduce profit by 12-15%; and (3) The renewable energy development roadmap in Power Plan VIII - affecting HND's long-term position in the national power system. Investors need to closely monitor information on these three factors.
How to effectively monitor HND stock developments?
To monitor HND effectively, you should: (1) Use the Pocket Option platform with price alert tools and in-depth technical analysis; (2) Follow quarterly financial reports and announcements from HND on the HOSE website (www.hsx.vn); (3) Subscribe to notifications from leading securities companies about HND; (4) Set up Google Alerts for keywords "Hai Phong Thermal Power" and "HND stock"; and (5) Participate in webinars and investor meetings of the company (usually held after financial statement announcements).
What strategy is optimal for HND stock in the volatile 2025 market?
In the context of a volatile 2025 market, the optimal strategy for HND includes: (1) Breaking buy orders into 4-5 parts, gradually placing orders at support zones; (2) Applying the "3-tier" model - 40% long-term holding for dividends, 40% trading in 3-6 month cycles, 20% to take advantage of strong fluctuations; (3) Setting up a trailing stop loss of 7-10% to protect capital; (4) Rebalancing the portfolio quarterly, not allowing HND to exceed 15% of the total portfolio; and (5) Utilizing derivative products on Pocket Option to hedge risks during periods of strong market volatility.