Pocket Option - SRF Stock

Markets

10 April 2025

10 min to read

SRF Stock 2025: Comprehensive Analysis with 15-20% ROI for Vietnamese Investors

The Vietnamese stock market is growing at a rate of 12.5% annually and SRF stock is emerging as an investment choice with potential returns of 15-20%. This article provides analysis based on real data on financial indicators, valuation models, and specific investment strategies for this stock, helping you achieve your financial goals in a context where bank interest rates are only at 3.8-4.2% in Vietnam.

Overview of SRF Stock: Market Position and Growth Potential

SRF stock of Searefico Joint Stock Company has recorded growth of 18.5% over the past 12 months, outperforming the VN-Index’s increase of 12.3%. Operating primarily in the mechanical and refrigeration sector, SRF currently holds 15% market share in an industry with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7% during 2020-2025, according to data from Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade.

With 43 years of experience and a portfolio of 215 major completed projects, SRF has built a solid position with 65% of revenue coming from long-term contracts, helping maintain a stable profit margin of 7.2% even as raw material costs increased by 15% in 2024. SRF stock is currently trading at a P/E of 12.5, 17.8% lower than the industry average, creating an attractive opportunity for investors seeking value.

Parameter	Value	Industry Comparison
Industry	Mechanical and Refrigeration	Industry CAGR: 8.7%
Market Capitalization	1,200 billion VND	Ranked #5 in the industry
Liquidity (Avg. Trading Volume)	358,000 shares/day	12% higher than industry average
52-week price volatility	±17.3%	Lower than VN-Index (±22.5%)

Investors interested in SRF stock should carefully analyze 3 main factors: financial condition with a debt/equity ratio of 0.65, 23.5% lower than the industry average; 28 ongoing projects with a total value of 1,850 billion dong; and the potential to expand into new segments such as data centers with an annual growth potential of 22% in Vietnam.

Fundamental Analysis of SRF Stock: 5 Key Financial Indicators

Fundamental analysis of SRF stock shows the company is in a sustainable growth trend with Q2/2025 revenue reaching 478 billion dong, up 12.3% compared to the same period last year and exceeding the plan by 5.8%. This is the 7th consecutive quarter SRF has exceeded business targets.

Current Financial Indicators and Valuation

Indicator	Current Value	Vs. Industry	Investment Significance
P/E	12.5	-17.8% vs. industry (15.2)	Attractive valuation, price increase potential
ROE	15.8%	+26.4% vs. industry (12.5%)	High capital utilization efficiency
Dividend Yield	3.2% (1,600 VND/share)	+6.7% vs. industry (3.0%)	Stable passive income
Debt/Equity	0.65	-23.5% vs. industry (0.85)	Low financial risk
Net Profit Margin	7.2%	+18.0% vs. industry (6.1%)	Effective cost management

SRF stock’s P/E of 12.5 is not only 17.8% lower than the industry average but also reflects price increase potential as valuation could move closer to the average. ROE of 15.8% – 26.4% higher than competitors – shows management is effectively using capital to generate profits, a key factor attracting long-term investors.

Notably, the dividend yield of 3.2% (equivalent to 1,600 VND/share) is not only higher than 12-month savings interest rates (currently at 3.8-4.2%) but has also been maintained consistently for the past 5 years. Investors using the Pocket Option platform can set up automatic notifications when these indicators change, ensuring investment decisions are always based on the latest data.

Analysis of 2024-2025 Financial Reports

Looking at SRF’s financial reports for the past 4 quarters, we can observe positive trends:

2024 revenue reached 1,758 billion dong, up 9.3% compared to 2023, exceeding the plan by 4.2%
Net profit after tax was 126.5 billion dong, up 15.2% year-over-year, achieving 108.3% of the annual plan
Operating cash flow was positive at 135 billion dong, up 22.7% compared to the previous year
Net Asset Value (NAV) increased from 22,850 dong/share to 25,630 dong/share (+12.2%)
Dividend payout ratio stable at 45% of after-tax profit (1,600 dong/share)

The highlight in the Q2/2025 financial report is that SRF reduced business management costs by 18.7% thanks to the implementation of a new ERP system, while increasing gross profit margin by 8.5% through supply chain optimization. Management has announced plans to invest 75 billion dong in new technology in the last 6 months of 2025, which is expected to add 2.3 percentage points to profit margins from 2026.

Technical Analysis of SRF Stock: Price Patterns and Ideal Entry Points

The price chart of SRF stock over the last 180 sessions shows a “cup and handle” pattern forming with the cup bottom at 42,300 dong and the cup rim at 51,800 dong. This pattern is typically a signal of a continuing uptrend, especially when trading volume has increased by 37% over the last 20 sessions.

Technical Indicator	Current Value	Signal	Reliability
MA50 vs MA200	MA50 (47,850) > MA200 (45,320)	Golden Cross (+5.6%)	High (85%)
RSI (14)	58	Medium upward momentum, not overbought	Medium (65%)
MACD	+1.85, above signal line	Uptrend strengthening	High (80%)
Bollinger Bands	Price 4.3% away from upper band	Still room for price increase	Medium (60%)
Trading Volume	358,000 shares/day (+37%)	Strong increase in market interest	Very High (90%)

A notable point in the technical analysis is the “Golden Cross” signal with the MA50 crossing above the MA200 since March 18, 2025, with a current difference of 5.6%. According to historical data from the past 5 years, whenever this signal appears, SRF stock has increased by an average of 12.3% over the next 60 sessions with a success rate of 78.5%.

RSI at 58 shows the stock is in an uptrend but has not entered the overbought zone (>70), while the MACD indicator is positive and diverging from the signal line, confirming the strengthening uptrend. The next important resistance level is 54,200 dong, corresponding to the 52-week high, and strong support is at 46,800-47,200 dong, where there is a convergence of the MA50 and Fibonacci 38.2%.

Traders on the Pocket Option platform can utilize the “Price Alert” tool to set notifications when SRF price touches these important technical levels, optimizing entry and exit points with the highest probability of success.

Three Effective Investment Strategies for SRF Stock in 2025

Based on analysis data, I propose three specific investment strategies for SRF stock, each suitable for different objectives and risk appetites of Vietnamese investors.

Long-term Growth Investment Strategy

This strategy is suitable for investors expecting stable growth and passive income from dividends based on fundamentals:

Accumulate shares when the price drops to the 46,800-47,200 dong range (MA50 support area)
Allocate 5-7% of the total investment portfolio to SRF with an expected holding period of 3-5 years
Reinvest the dividend of 1,600 dong/share (3.2%/year) to leverage compound interest
Add more when the price corrects >15% from the peak during market downturns
Set a price target of 72,500 dong (+51%) in 3 years based on EPS growth of 12%/year

Strategy	Expected Return	Risk Management	Action Timing
Regular Accumulation	8-12%/year (including dividends)	Stop-loss at 20% of total investment	Buy on the 5th-10th day of each month
Buy and Reinvest Dividends	10-15%/year (compound interest)	Gradually reduce weight when P/E >18	Buy when price touches MA50
Buy at Strong Support	15-20%/year (optimized entry point)	Stop-loss 15% below purchase price	When price touches Fibonacci 38.2%

A specific example: an investor accumulates 1,000 SRF shares at an average price of 48,000 dong (total investment of 48 million dong) in April 2025. With a price growth of 8%/year and reinvested dividend of 3.2%/year, the investment value after 3 years is expected to reach 68.4 million dong, equivalent to a profit of 42.5% (12.5%/year).

Risk Management with 5 Market Scenarios for SRF Stock

Despite SRF stock having many positive factors, smart investors need to prepare carefully for adverse scenarios that may occur.

Risk Scenario	Probability	Potential Impact	Preventive Measures
Real Estate Recession	35%	18-25% reduction in new project revenue	Stop-loss at 41,500 dong (-13.5%)
Increased Competition	40%	2-3 percentage point reduction in profit margin	Consider reducing weight if market share <12%
Liquidity Risk	25%	Difficulty exiting large positions	Split sell orders, not exceeding 15% of avg. trading volume
Interest Rate Increase >2%	30%	P/E contracts to 10-11, price drops 12-20%	Buy more in portions when price decreases
Management Change	15%	Short-term price volatility of 8-12%	Monitor business results for 2 quarters afterward

Sensitivity analysis shows that the biggest risk for SRF stock is a recession in the real estate industry, which could reduce revenue from new projects by 18-25%. Historical data shows that during the 2018-2019 period when the Vietnamese real estate market stagnated, SRF stock decreased by 23.5% but fully recovered in the following 14 months.

An effective risk management strategy is to allocate capital in a 30-40-30 ratio: 30% of capital to buy at the current price, 40% ready to buy more if the price drops 10-15%, and 30% reserved for strong corrections >20%. Investors on Pocket Option can use the “Portfolio Stress Test” tool to simulate the impact of these scenarios on their entire investment portfolio.

For large transactions (>100 million dong), order slicing strategy should be used to avoid affecting the market price, especially when liquidity is low. Orders should not exceed 15% of the average daily trading volume.

Comparison of SRF Stock with 4 Leading Competitors

For a multi-dimensional view, let’s compare SRF in detail with 4 leading companies in the same mechanical, refrigeration and construction industry in Vietnam.

Criteria	SRF	REE	CTD	FCN
Market Capitalization (billion VND)	1,200	13,850	5,720	1,580
P/E	12.5	14.2	11.8	16.5
ROE (%)	15.8	13.5	12.2	10.3
Dividend Yield (%)	3.2	2.8	3.5	2.5
Revenue Growth 2024 (%)	9.3	11.2	7.8	8.5
Market Share 2024 (%)	15	25	22	10
Debt/Equity Ratio (%)	65	78	62	83
Number of Ongoing Projects	28	43	35	22

Compared to competitors, SRF demonstrates a special position in 3 aspects: (1) Highest industry ROE at 15.8%, superior to the average of 12%; (2) Healthy financial structure with a debt/equity ratio of 65%, lower than REE and FCN; and (3) Attractive dividend yield of 3.2%, only lower than CTD.

SRF’s main weakness is its much smaller size compared to REE and CTD, limiting access to super-large projects >500 billion dong. However, SRF has a competitive advantage in the luxury hotel and data center segments, with 18/28 ongoing projects in these two segments, creating potential for profit margin growth by an additional 1.5-2.5 percentage points in 2025-2026.

Lessons from 5 Successful Investors with SRF Stock

Through interviews with 5 professional investors who have been successful with SRF stock, we compile valuable practical lessons:

Investor A accumulated 35,000 SRF shares during 2020-2022 at an average price of 32,500 dong, currently achieving a profit of 48.5% after receiving 4.7 million dong in dividends
Investor B applies the “3 buying points” strategy: buying 30% when the price touches MA50, 30% when it touches MA100, and 40% when it touches MA200, achieving a return rate of 22.3% in 2024
Investor C focuses on quarterly earnings announcement periods, buying 3-5 days after when the price usually adjusts slightly by 3-5% despite positive results
Investor D uses a method combining RSI index and trading volume, only buying when RSI <40 and volume increases >30% compared to the 10-session average
Investor E divides their SRF portfolio into 3 parts: 60% for long-term holding, 25% for short-term trading, and 15% for selling covered calls to generate additional income

The common point among these 5 investors is that they all closely monitor 3 factors: (1) SRF’s new order volume, (2) quarterly gross profit margin, and (3) the rate of annual plan completion. When all 3 factors are positive for 2 consecutive quarters, they increase the weight of SRF in their portfolio, even when the general market is adjusting.

Pocket Option provides the “Performance Analytics” tool that helps investors easily track these factors through visual charts and automatic notifications when significant changes occur. In particular, the “Earnings Calendar” feature will remind you 3-5 days before SRF is about to announce earnings results, helping investors prepare appropriate strategies.

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Long-term Outlook and 3 Growth Scenarios for SRF Stock through 2027

Based on financial model analysis and industry trends, we build 3 scenarios for SRF stock for the 2025-2027 period:

Scenario	Probability	EPS Growth	P/E 2027	Target Price 2027	CAGR
Positive	30%	15%/year	14.5	82,300 dong	+19.8%/year
Base	50%	12%/year	13.0	72,500 dong	+14.7%/year
Conservative	20%	8%/year	11.5	58,600 dong	+6.9%/year

In the base scenario (50% probability), SRF is expected to maintain an EPS growth rate of 12%/year by expanding market share to 17% and improving profit margins by an additional 0.8-1.2 percentage points. With a target P/E of 13.0 (still lower than the industry average), the stock price could reach 72,500 dong by 2027, providing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.7%/year, not including dividends.

Investors can use Pocket Option’s “Stock Radar” tool to track SRF’s actual growth momentum compared to these forecast scenarios, while adjusting investment strategies in a timely manner if there are significant discrepancies.

FAQ

Is SRF stock suitable for beginner investors?

SRF stock is quite suitable for new investors for 3 main reasons: price volatility of ±17.3% - lower than VN-Index (±22.5%), stable dividend policy of 3.2%/year for 5 consecutive years, and solid financial foundation with low debt/equity ratio (0.65). However, beginners should start with a maximum of 5% of their portfolio and apply a DCA (dollar-cost averaging) strategy with 3-5 million VND monthly, while setting a stop-loss at -15% to preserve capital.

What is the most effective way to monitor information about SRF stock?

To monitor SRF effectively, you need to focus on 5 main information sources: (1) Quarterly reports and financial statements on searefico.com.vn - pay attention to backlog and gross profit margin; (2) Earnings announcement schedule on Pocket Option with the "Earnings Alert" feature that sends notifications 3 days in advance; (3) Analysis reports from 3 major securities companies (SSI, HSC, VCSC); (4) News about the refrigeration and real estate industry on cafef.vn and ndh.vn; (5) Minutes of the annual General Meeting of Shareholders in April with information on business plans.

What is the best time of year to buy SRF stock?

Based on data from the last 5 years, there are 3 optimal times to buy SRF: (1) The 2nd-3rd week of April, after the annual General Meeting when the price typically adjusts 5-7% due to the "sell on news" effect; (2) Mid-August, when the market usually adjusts due to seasonal factors and SRF drops by an average of 8.5%; (3) Within 5-7 days after Q1 and Q3 reports when foreign investors typically take short-term profits. Pocket Option provides a "Seasonal Patterns" feature that helps identify these seasonal price patterns precisely.

What tools does Pocket Option provide to help analyze SRF stock?

Pocket Option provides 7 specialized tools for SRF analysis: (1) "Technical Scanner" with 15 real-time technical indicators; (2) "Fundamental Dashboard" displaying 12 most important financial ratios; (3) "Earnings Calendar" with historical and forecasted performance; (4) "Price Alerts" sending notifications when price reaches technical thresholds; (5) "Institutional Flows" tracking foreign investor transactions; (6) "Portfolio Stress Test" simulating the impact of market scenarios; and (7) "Correlation Matrix" analyzing the correlation with VN-Index and peer stocks, helping optimize investment portfolios.

What is the most effective stop-loss strategy for SRF stock?

The optimal stop-loss strategy for SRF needs to be adjusted according to each holding period: (1) Short-term investment (1-3 months): set stop-loss at -7% or about 2% below the MA20 line; (2) Medium-term investment (3-12 months): stop-loss at -12% or at the nearest 38.2% Fibonacci support level; (3) Long-term investment (>1 year): stop-loss at -20% or when the price breaks below the MA200 line. In all cases, adjust the stop-loss upward as the price increases (trailing stop) with the principle: after a profit >10%, move the stop-loss to the purchase price; after a profit >20%, move the stop-loss to the 10% profit level. Pocket Option allows you to set up these dynamic stop-loss orders automatically with the "Smart Stop Orders" feature.