- Export taxes: reduced from 12% to 8% in 2024
- Internal prices: currently 15% below international parity
- Tax incentives: 150% deduction for investments in unconventional resources
- Strategic projects: preferential financing at 7.5% annual rate
In the volatile energy landscape of 2025, the question "is it worth buying YPF stocks today?" acquires critical relevance for investors seeking opportunities in the sector. This analysis reveals determining factors, current trends, and specific strategies that Pocket Option operators use to position themselves successfully.
The current YPF landscape in the global energy context
When evaluating whether it’s worth buying YPF stocks today, it’s crucial to consider that this oil company operates in a market where the barrel fluctuated between $70-85 during 2024, with projections of stabilization at $80 for 2025 according to Pocket Option analysis.
YPF experienced 18% volatility in its price during the last quarter, significantly higher than the 12% industry average. Pocket Option specialists identify this divergence as a potential opportunity for tactical investors.
| Positive factors | Caution factors |
|---|---|
| Proven reserves: 883 million barrels (+5% annual) | Regulatory volatility (quarterly changes) |
| Vaca Muerta: production increased 23% in 2024 | Inflation: 15% impact on operating costs |
| Vertical integration: refining margins 18% | Exchange rate: 42% exposure to currencies |
| Renewables: 120MW in development (+35% annual) | Competitors: entry of 3 new operators |
Fundamental analysis: key indicators of YPF
To determine if it’s worth investing in YPF stocks, examine these key indicators: current P/E of 8.2 (vs. 12.1 for the sector), dividend yield of 3.8%, and debt/EBITDA ratio of 2.3. According to Pocket Option analysis, these values suggest a potential undervaluation of 15-20% compared to regional peers.
| Indicator | Current value | Sector comparison |
|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.2 (Q1 2025) | 12.1 (regional energy sector average) |
| Debt/equity ratio | 0.62 | 0.58 (regional competitors) |
| ROE (Return on equity) | 12.4% | 10.8% (sector average) |
| EBITDA Margin | 23.7% | 21.5% (sector average) |
Specific factors that determine if it’s worth buying YPF stocks today
When analyzing whether it’s worth buying YPF stocks today, the development of Vaca Muerta is decisive: this oil field increased its production by 23% in 2024, generating 37% of YPF’s total revenue with operating margins above 42%, according to data verified by Pocket Option analysts.
The impact of energy policy on stock valuation
Regulatory decisions directly influence YPF’s profitability. During 2024, changes in the export regime generated a positive impact of 8.3% on quarterly EBITDA, while modifications in internal prices represented a 5.7% compression of margins.
Investment strategies according to your risk profile
For investors evaluating whether it’s worth buying YPF stocks, Pocket Option recommends establishing staggered positions: 30% at current price, 40% if it retreats 10%, and the remaining 30% with corrections of 15%, complementing with put options as protection against volatility above 25%.
| Investor profile | Recommended strategy | Time horizon |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10% exposure, 90% fixed income | 3+ years (dividend reinvestment) |
| Moderate | 25% staggered exposure, 15% stop-loss | 1-3 years (quarterly review) |
| Aggressive | 40% exposure, trading 20% of capital | 6-12 months (monthly adjustments) |
| Speculative | Call options, 1:3 leverage | 1-3 months (weekly review) |
Technical analysis: critical levels and entry points
Pocket Option’s technical analysis identifies key support at $12.40 and $11.80, with resistance at $14.20 and $15.60. The current RSI of 47 suggests an asset in neutral zone, while the 50-day moving average ($13.10) is approaching a bullish cross with the 200-day moving average ($12.85), a formation known as “golden cross”.
| Technical indicator | Current reading | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14 periods) | 47 | Neutral with bullish tendency |
| MACD | +0.18 | Recent buy signal |
| Average daily volume | 2.3M shares | +35% above quarterly average |
| Bollinger Bands | 18% narrowing | Precedes directional movement |
Essential macroeconomic considerations
When evaluating whether it’s worth buying YPF stocks, consider these critical macroeconomic variables: projected inflation of 52% annually (impact on operating costs), reference interest rates at 45% (increased financing costs), and exchange rate with estimated devaluation of 38% (benefit for exports).
- Interest rates: increase of 550 basis points in the last semester
- Inflationary differential: +18% compared to regional competitors
- Exchange rate: 0.72 correlation with export profitability
- Global energy demand: recovery projection of 3.8% for 2025
Conclusion: risk-opportunity balance in YPF
Evaluating whether it’s worth buying YPF stocks today requires considering that it currently trades at an 18% discount compared to regional peers, while its Vaca Muerta projects offer growth prospects of 15-20% annually in production. According to Pocket Option analysis, the stock presents upside potential of 22-28% over a 12-month horizon, with a favorable risk/benefit ratio of 1:2.5 for moderate-aggressive profiles.
To maximize success probabilities, implement staggered entry strategies, diversify sector exposure, and use the technical-fundamental analysis tools that Pocket Option makes available to you. Remember that timing is crucial: technical corrections of 8-12% have historically proven to be optimal entry points for medium-term positioning in energy assets like YPF.
FAQ
What is the best strategy for investing in YPF stocks?
The best strategy depends on your risk profile and time horizon. For long-term investors, a staggered entry taking advantage of technical corrections while maintaining a diversified position is usually recommended.
What factors can drive YPF's share price in the near future?
Successful development of Vaca Muerta projects, favorable changes in energy regulation, and macroeconomic stabilization are factors that could positively drive the price. The evolution of international oil prices also plays a decisive role.
How do exchange rate fluctuations affect YPF?
Currency variations have a dual impact: they favor export revenues when the local currency depreciates, but can increase international financing costs. The net effect depends on its income and debt structure at each moment.
What percentage of a diversified portfolio should be allocated to shares like YPF?
The recommended exposure varies according to risk tolerance, but generally should not exceed 5-7% of a diversified portfolio. Pocket Option offers risk management tools that help determine the optimal allocation according to your financial goals.
What differentiates YPF from other regional energy companies?
YPF is distinguished by its privileged access to Vaca Muerta, one of the largest unconventional hydrocarbon deposits in the world. Its vertical integration (exploration, production, refining, and marketing) also gives it operational flexibility compared to more specialized competitors.