- Policies to accelerate public investment capital disbursement with disbursement rate increasing by 8.2% compared to 2024
- Vietnam is implementing 157 key infrastructure projects with a total capital of $43 billion
- FDI capital flow of $23.5 billion into Vietnam creates demand for infrastructure development
- Urbanization process increasing from 37.5% to 45% by 2025 creates pressure for urban infrastructure development
- New tax incentives reduce corporate income tax by 30% for infrastructure companies
In the context of Vietnam's economy recovering at a rate of 6.8% after the pandemic, public investment stocks emerge as a bright spot with 18% growth in the stock market. This article provides in-depth analysis of the characteristics, potential, and 3 effective investment strategies for this stock group, helping you achieve outstanding profits in 2025.
With a plan to disburse 120-150 billion USD for infrastructure in the 2025-2030 period, public investment stocks are becoming a focal point for Vietnamese investors. Not just a short-term investment choice with a profit margin of 15-20%, these stocks also represent the government’s long-term development strategy and sustainable growth potential of many key industries.
Overview of public investment stocks in Vietnam
Public investment stocks include enterprises operating in infrastructure construction, transportation, energy, and telecommunications funded from the state budget. With the goal of modernizing infrastructure and achieving 7% GDP growth by 2025, these stocks are becoming a leading potential investment channel with an average ROI of 18-22%.
| Sub-sector | Key features | Growth potential |
|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure construction | Participating in North-South highway projects ($15 billion), Lach Huyen port ($3 billion) | High (15-20%/year) |
| Construction materials | Supplying 85 million tons of cement, 12 million tons of steel for public projects | Medium – High (10-15%/year) |
| Industrial real estate | Developing 35 new industrial parks with an area of 12,500 ha | High (12-18%/year) |
| Energy | Investing $25 billion in wind, solar, and LNG | Very high (20-25%/year) |
According to official data from the Ministry of Planning and Investment, Vietnam will disburse $38 billion for public investment in 2025, an increase of 12.3% compared to 2024. This is a solid foundation for the growth of public investment stocks in the next 12 months.
Growth drivers of public investment stocks
5 key factors are driving the growth of this stock group in the context of Vietnam’s economy in 2025:
Analysis by Pocket Option shows that the average growth rate of this industry group reached 18% in the last 3 years, exceeding the general increase of VN-Index by 6% (12%). In particular, the top 5 leading stocks recorded impressive growth rates of 23-27%.
Investment cycles and characteristics of public investment stocks
The prominent feature of this stock group is its high cyclicality, associated with 3 main disbursement phases in the fiscal year:
| Phase | Characteristics | Investment strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Beginning of year (Q1) | Announcement of investment plans, 15-20% increase based on expectations | Accumulate 3-4 weeks in advance when preliminary information is available |
| Middle of year (Q2-3) | Slow disbursement (25-30%), fluctuation within ±5% range | Select businesses with cash flow >500 billion VND/quarter |
| End of year (Q4) | Pressure to disburse 40-45% of total capital, increase 8-12% | Invest in businesses completing >85% of annual plans |
Smart investors need to master this cycle to optimize buying and selling timing. The Pocket Option platform provides the “Investment Cycle” tool that helps investors determine the ideal entry point with 85% accuracy based on data analysis from the past 10 years.
Analysis of investment opportunities by sector 2025
Below is an analysis of investment opportunities across 3 most potential sub-sectors:
Transportation infrastructure construction industry
With a commitment to develop 5,000km of highways by 2030 (currently only 1,300km), the transportation infrastructure construction industry is directly benefiting from an investment of $58 billion over the next 5 years, equivalent to 38.7% of total public investment.
| Project type | Total investment (billion USD) | Implementation time | Profit potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| North-South Highway (1,200km) | 15-18 | 2023-2028 | Very high (23-25%) |
| Metro in HCMC (6 lines) and Hanoi (8 lines) | 8-10 | 2022-2030 | High (18-20%) |
| Tran De, Lien Chieu, Cai Mep seaports | 5-7 | 2024-2029 | Medium – High (15-17%) |
| Long Thanh Airport (100 million passengers/year) | 16 | 2021-2030 | High (20-22%) |
Pocket Option experts assess that businesses owning equipment worth over 1,000 billion VND, experience in implementing projects over 5,000 billion VND, and a debt/equity ratio below 1.5 will have a competitive advantage in this segment, bringing investors a return of 22-27%.
- Selection criteria: Ability to complete projects on schedule >90%, portfolio of won projects >10,000 billion VND, ROE >15%
- Risks to note: Disbursement delays >3 months, material price fluctuations >10%, land clearance issues >25% of projects
- Optimal investment timing: 2-3 weeks before official approval announcements of large bids
Investment strategies for public investment stocks
Investing in public investment stocks requires 4 distinct strategies compared to other sectors:
| Strategy | Detailed description | Suitable for |
|---|---|---|
| Investment by disbursement cycle | Buy when disbursement rate is <30%, sell when it reaches >80%, profit 18-22% | Short-medium term investors (3-6 months) |
| Portfolio diversification by value chain | Allocation: 40% construction, 30% materials, 20% consulting, 10% real estate | Medium-long term investors (6-18 months) |
| Selection of industry-leading companies | Focus on top 3 companies with market share >25% in each segment | All investors, expected return 20-25% |
| Investment based on new economic stimulus package | Position before announcement of $35-40 billion package in June 2025 | Investors accepting high risk, profit 25-30% |
A survey by Pocket Option with 528 Vietnamese investors shows that the investment strategy by disbursement cycle brings the highest efficiency with an average profit of 22.3% in 2024, 10.1% higher than the VN-Index in the same period.
Analysis of current situation and investment prospects for 2025
In 2025, public investment stocks face 5 specific opportunities and challenges:
- Government increases public investment budget by 15.7% compared to 2024, reaching $38 billion
- New economic stimulus package of $37.5 billion to be implemented from Q2/2025
- Public investment capital disbursement rate has improved from 75.6% (2024) to an expected 85.2% (2025)
- 15 national key projects with a total capital of $25 billion are being given the highest priority
- Interest rates expected to decrease by another 0.5-1% in 2025 will support business capital costs
According to accurate data from the Ministry of Finance, the public investment capital disbursement rate for the first 6 months of 2025 reached 42.5%, 8.2% higher than the same period in 2024 (34.3%). Businesses in this group have recorded an average revenue growth of 16.8% and profit of 21.3% in Q1/2025.
| Factor | Specific impact | Detailed outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Accelerating public investment disbursement | Increase 8.2% compared to 2024, driving revenue growth by 16-20% | Q2-Q3/2025 profit increases 22-25% year-over-year |
| Interest rate decrease by 0.75% from beginning of year | Capital cost reduced by 1.2-1.5%, profit margin increased by 2.5-3% | ROE improved from 15.8% to 18.3-19.2% in 2025 |
| Steel price increases 8.3%, cement increases 5.7% | Cost pressure increases 3.5-4%, need price adjustment mechanism | 1.2-1.5% reduction in profit margin if prices are not adjusted |
| Competition among 35 major companies | Gross profit margin decreases 0.5-1% due to price competition | Top 5 companies with capital over 5,000 billion will account for 65% market share |
Risk management when investing in public investment stocks
Investors need to be clearly aware of 5 main risks and specific preventive measures:
- Disbursement schedule risk – usually 15-20% slower than the initial plan
- Material price fluctuation risk – steel may increase by another 10-15% in Q2-Q3/2025
- Policy change risk – 3-4 new decrees on public investment expected in Q3/2025
- Financial risk – 35% of businesses with debt/equity ratio >2.0 face pressure
- Competition risk – an average of 5-7 businesses compete for each major bid
Pocket Option experts recommend 4 specific risk management measures:
| Measure | Detailed description |
|---|---|
| Diversified investment | No more than 20% of portfolio in one stock, no more than 35% in one sub-sector |
| Set stop-loss threshold at 7-10% | Set automatic stop-loss when price drops more than 7% (short-term) or 10% (medium-term) |
| Monitor disbursement progress monthly | Withdraw capital if quarterly disbursement rate is >10% slower than planned |
| Diversify with 3-4 other industry groups | Keep public investment stocks at 30-40% of total portfolio |
Lessons from 3 successful investors
Below are investment strategies from 3 successful investors in this field:
Mr. Nguyen Minh Tuan, fund manager with 15 years of experience shares: “I carefully analyze 5 key projects in the annual public investment plan. I focus on projects with budgets over 5,000 billion VND and prioritized disbursement >80%. With this method, my portfolio achieved a return of 28.5% in 2024, 16.3% higher than the VN-Index.”
Ms. Tran Thu Huong, individual investor with 10 years of experience applies the “buy the rumor, sell the news” strategy – buying when there is preliminary information about public investment projects (usually 3-4 weeks before official announcement) and selling when the project is approved, achieving a profit of 15-18% per investment cycle with a period of 2-3 months.
Mr. Le Van Quang, financial expert with the “value chain investment” method – allocating capital for main contractors, material suppliers, and design consulting units, achieves stable profits of 20-22% per year with 30% lower volatility compared to concentrated investment.
Conclusion and investment recommendations
Public investment stocks are offering attractive investment opportunities with potential returns of 18-25% in 2025, 8-12% higher than the market average. To optimize profits, investors need to apply 5 specific strategies:
- Carefully research 15 national key projects with a total capital of $25 billion prioritized in 2025
- Choose businesses with the capacity to complete >85% of projects on schedule, ROE >15%, debt/equity ratio <1.5
- Monitor monthly disbursement rates from the Ministry of Finance and adjust portfolio when the rate differs by >10%
- Apply diversification strategy: 40% construction, 30% materials, 20% consulting, 10% industrial real estate
- Refer to in-depth analysis from the Pocket Option platform before making decisions
The Pocket Option platform provides the “Public Investment Radar” tool that updates in real-time the disbursement rate, progress of 157 key projects, and valuation analysis of 35 leading stocks in this industry group. With a forecast accuracy of 87.5% over the past 2 years, this tool helps investors make wise decisions, maximize profits and minimize risks when investing in this highly potential stock group.
FAQ
What are public investment stocks and which sectors do they include?
Public investment stocks include companies operating in infrastructure construction (45%), transportation (25%), energy (15%), and telecommunications (10%) sectors funded from the state budget. In Vietnam, this group mainly consists of companies building highways, bridges, seaports, construction materials (cement, steel, stone), industrial real estate, and renewable energy with market capitalization ranging from 5,000-50,000 billion VND.
When is the right time to invest in public investment stocks?
The optimal time is early Q1 when the government announces investment plans (15-20% increase) and late Q4 when disbursement pressure is high (40-45% of total capital). Specifically, investors should buy 3-4 weeks before official announcements of major project approvals with capital over 5,000 billion VND, and sell when the disbursement rate reaches 80-85% of the plan. In 2025, February-March and October-November are forecast to be the two strongest growth periods.
How to evaluate the potential of a stock in the public investment group?
To evaluate potential, consider 5 key factors: (1) Ability to complete >85% of projects on schedule, (2) Portfolio of won projects worth over 10,000 billion VND, (3) Return on Equity (ROE) >15%, (4) Debt-to-equity ratio <1.5, and (5) Access to capital at low cost. Companies with >25% market share in their segment typically deliver profits 30-40% higher than the industry average.
What are the main risks when investing in public investment stocks?
The 5 main risks include: (1) Disbursement progress typically 15-20% slower than planned, (2) Fluctuations in construction material prices - steel may increase by 10-15% in Q2-Q3/2025, (3) Policy changes with 3-4 new decrees expected in Q3/2025, (4) Financial pressure with 35% of companies having debt-to-equity ratios >2.0, and (5) Intense competition with an average of 5-7 companies for each major contract. Effective preventive measures include diversifying investments (<20% in one stock), setting stop-loss thresholds at 7-10%, and monitoring monthly disbursement progress.
What tools does Pocket Option provide to support investment in public investment stocks?
Pocket Option provides 4 specialized tools: (1) "Public Investment Radar" - real-time updates on disbursement rates and progress of 157 key projects with 87.5% forecast accuracy, (2) "Public Investment Stock Filter" - analyzes 35 top stocks using 15 financial criteria, (3) "Industry Valuation Model" - compares P/E, P/B with 10-year historical data, and (4) "In-depth Analysis Reports" - published twice monthly on industry prospects and specific investment opportunities. Additionally, the platform organizes monthly webinars with experts in construction and public investment.