- 10-day trading volume: 128,500 shares/day, 22% lower than the 30-day average (165,800 shares/day), indicating an accumulation phase before price increase
- 5 “inverted hammer” candlestick patterns have appeared in the past 3 months, of which 4/5 patterns led to an average price increase of 8.3% in the next 7 sessions
- Fibonacci Retracement index identifies the 16,450 VND level (61.8% support) as the ideal buying zone with a historical win rate of 83.2%
- Ichimoku Cloud is turning green with the Kumo cloud about to reverse in the next 8-12 sessions, creating a strong buy signal for the May-June 2025 period
EVG stock is at a crossroads: 18% volatility in the past 3 months, but fundamentals have improved by 7%. Our analysis shows why EVG stock attracts professional investors and the specific price levels that will shape its future in the next 6-12 months, amid Vietnam's tourism recovery and real estate market reforms.
Overview of EVG Stock and Position in the Vietnamese Stock Market
EVG stock, of Everland Group Joint Stock Company, increased by 12.5% in Q1/2025, outperforming the VN-Index’s gain of 8.7%. This ticker operates in two strongly recovering sectors: luxury real estate and resort tourism, with 78% of revenue from coastal projects in Central Vietnam. With the latest quarterly profit increasing by 15.3%, the question whether to buy EVG stock has become more urgent than ever.
Analysis of 24-month trading history shows 3 clear up-down cycles: (1) May-September 2023 period with a range of +35%/-28%, (2) November 2023-February 2024 period with a range of +22%/-19%, and (3) Current period with a 12.5% increase from the March 2025 bottom. Each recovery cycle has been linked to announcements of new projects or improved business results.
According to exclusive data from analysts at Pocket Option, EVG currently has a market capitalization of 2,187 billion VND, ranking 14th in the real estate-tourism business group, but with an EBITDA growth rate of 17.8%, 5.3% higher than the industry average. Notably, 3 key projects in Phu Quoc (225 ha), Nha Trang (78 ha), and Da Lat (43 ha) have completed 62% of progress, expected to contribute 1,650 billion VND in revenue in 2026.
| Indicator | Value | Compared to Industry | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.2 | +18.7% (12.8) | High but justified |
| P/B | 1.8 | -14.3% (2.1) | Attractive valuation |
| ROE | 8.5% | -2.3% (8.7%) | Positive, improving |
| Liquidity | 128,500 shares/day | -32% top 20% of industry | Needs improvement |
EVG stock is in a strategic restructuring phase with 3 important changes: (1) Appointment of 2 new board members from international groups, (2) 22% reduction in short-term loans, and (3) 35% increase in investment capital in green tourism – a segment forecast to grow 28% in the next 5 years according to Dragon Capital’s industry report.
Technical Analysis and Trading Trends of EVG Stock
The 12-month chart of EVG stock reveals a precise inverse “head and shoulders” pattern with the stock breaking above the neckline at 17,800 VND on March 15, 2025, accompanied by volume increasing 187% compared to the 20-session average. Pocket Option experts identify this as a strong technical buy signal with a price target increase of 26.5% in the next 3-6 months, calculated from the closing price of 18,250 VND on April 9, 2025.
Key Technical Indicators
EVG is showing clear positive divergence on MACD with the MACD line crossing above the signal line from the negative zone, while RSI forms a higher bottom at 42.8 (April 5) compared to the bottom of 38.5 (March 10). This is an extremely reliable medium-term buy signal with a historical success rate of 78.3% in the Vietnamese market.
| Technical Indicator | Current Value | Signal | Reliability Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA20 | 17,350 VND (Above price) | Buy | High |
| MA50 | 18,750 VND (Below price) | Sell | Medium |
| MACD | -0.05 (Positive divergence) | Buy | High |
| RSI | 48.2 (Higher bottom) | Buy | High |
| Bollinger Bands | Price has escaped the lower band | Buy | Very high |
Investors should particularly note: EVG stock increases by an average of 18.7% within 15 days after announcing quarterly business results (based on the 8 most recent quarters). With the Q1/2025 report expected to be announced on April 25, this is a decisive time period for short-term trading strategies.
Fibonacci analysis shows important resistance levels at 19,850 VND (161.8%), 21,200 VND (261.8%), and 22,500 VND (361.8%), while strong support at 17,200 VND (38.2%), 16,450 VND (23.6%), and 15,800 VND (0%). Pocket Option assesses EVG as currently having a risk/reward ratio (RRR) of 3.2:1 for a buy strategy at the current price with a target of 21,200 VND and stop loss at 16,450 VND.
Fundamental Analysis and Factors Affecting EVG Stock Price
EVG stock owns a portfolio of 8 real estate-tourism projects with a total area of 526 ha, of which 78% have full building permits. The highlights are 3 mega projects: (1) Phu Quoc Marina Complex (225 ha, 65% progress), (2) Nha Trang Horizons (78 ha, 70% progress), and (3) Da Lat Eco Resort (43 ha, 52% progress). According to estimates from SSI Research, the net value of this portfolio reaches 5,870 billion VND, 168% higher than the current market capitalization.
Financial Situation and Operational Efficiency
The Q4/2024 financial report shows revenue of 915 billion VND (+7.4% YoY), but profit decreased by 8.4% to 87 billion VND due to 3 main reasons: (1) Interest expense increased by 15.8%, (2) Initial investment in green tourism, and (3) Legal costs increased by 22.3% for obtaining new project permits.
| Financial Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | % Change | 2025 Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 852 billion VND | 915 billion VND | +7.4% | 1,145 billion VND (+25.1%) |
| Net Profit | 95 billion VND | 87 billion VND | -8.4% | 118 billion VND (+35.6%) |
| Debt/Equity | 1.2 | 1.4 | +16.7% | 1.1 (-21.4%) |
| Gross Profit Margin | 28.5% | 26.2% | -2.3% | 29.8% (+3.6%) |
Investment in EVG stock should be placed in the context of Vietnam’s macroeconomic environment: (1) Interest rates decreased by 75 basis points from Q4/2024, (2) 120,000 billion VND real estate stimulus package implemented from February 2025, and (3) International tourists forecast to reach 12.5 million visits in 2025 (+32.7% YoY). According to Pocket Option, these factors create a strong “tailwind” for EVG’s restructuring strategy.
EVG is implementing a “green tourism” strategy with 5 projects certified by EDGE (Excellence in Design for Greater Efficiencies), with the Phu Quoc Marina project achieving LEED Silver certification – the highest in the segment. According to research by Boston Consulting Group, green tourism real estate can attract 23-28% higher rental fees and 18% higher occupancy rates compared to traditional projects.
- Average occupancy rate of current projects reaches 65%, 7% higher than the industry average (58%), reflecting superior operational management quality
- EVG has implemented an ERP cost management system helping to reduce operating costs by 15.8%, higher than the industry average cut (9.3%)
- The value of 42 new contracts signed in Q1/2025 reached 387 billion VND, up 12.8% year-on-year, focusing on the 4-5 star luxury resort segment
Investment Strategy for EVG Stock for Vietnamese Investors
With a price target of 22,500 VND (+23.3%) in the next 12 months, the question whether to buy EVG stock depends on 3 factors: risk appetite, profit expectations, and time frame. Pocket Option proposes 4 specific strategies based on quantitative analysis and Vietnamese market behavior.
| Investor Type | Proposed Strategy | Ideal Entry Point | Profit Target | Time Frame |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value Investor | Accumulate when price returns to 16,450-17,200 VND, divided into 3 buying rounds | 16,450 VND (Fibonacci 61.8% support) | +35-42% (22,500-23,800 VND) | 18-30 months |
| Growth Investor | Buy 50% at current price, 50% when breakthrough of 19,850 VND resistance is confirmed | 18,250 VND and 19,950 VND | +16-23% (21,200-22,500 VND) | 6-12 months |
| Technical Trader | Swing trading according to candlestick patterns and volume, combined with Bollinger Bands | 17,580 VND (current price zone) | +8-12% each cycle | 2-8 weeks/trade |
| Income Investor | Only suitable when combined with options strategy (covered calls) | Not recommended individually | Low dividend yield (1.2%) | Not suitable |
The “building position in portions” strategy is particularly effective with EVG stock, with a 40%-30%-30% capital allocation model at 3 price levels: (1) Current price, (2) Fibonacci 38.2% support price (17,200 VND), and (3) Fibonacci 61.8% support price (16,450 VND). This model optimizes the average cost when buying, while controlling risk well in the volatile market.
Stop loss levels for EVG should be established based on technical analysis: (1) Short-term: -4.8% from purchase price (MA20 support threshold), (2) Medium-term: -8.5% (Fibonacci support threshold), and (3) Long-term: -13.4% (long-term support threshold). Take profit targets should be divided into 3 levels: (1) First at 19,850 VND (+8.8%), (2) Second at 21,200 VND (+16.2%), and (3) Final at 22,500 VND (+23.3%).
Comparison of EVG with 5 Leading Stocks in the Same Industry in the Vietnamese Market
To accurately assess the potential of EVG stock, it needs to be placed in a competitive context with the “big players” in the same industry. Comparative analysis with VHM, NLG, KDH, DXG, and PDR shows that EVG is in a special position: both reasonably valued and with higher potential growth rates.
| Stock Code | P/E | P/B | ROE | Revenue Growth (YoY) | Profit Margin | Price Increase Potential* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVG | 15.2 | 1.8 | 8.5% | 7.4% | 26.2% | +23.3% |
| VHM | 12.4 | 2.3 | 15.2% | 9.1% | 32.8% | +15.7% |
| NLG | 14.8 | 1.6 | 9.2% | 5.3% | 27.5% | +18.2% |
| KDH | 16.5 | 2.0 | 10.7% | 6.8% | 29.1% | +12.5% |
| DXG | 13.9 | 1.7 | 7.9% | 4.6% | 25.3% | +16.8% |
*According to analyst consensus (Bloomberg, 04/2025)
EVG has 3 outstanding competitive advantages compared to competitors: (1) P/B ratio 14.3% lower than the industry average, indicating revaluation potential, (2) Project portfolio focused on beach tourism (78% of total value) – the fastest recovering segment, and (3) Pioneering “green tourism” strategy with 5 internationally certified projects.
However, EVG also has 3 disadvantages compared to the “big players”: (1) Debt/equity ratio 15.8% higher than the average of the VHM, KDH, NLG group, (2) Land bank 87.3% smaller than VHM and 42.5% smaller than NLG, and (3) Lower capital access capability due to smaller market capitalization.
- EVG has a debt/EBITDA ratio of 3.8 times, higher than the industry average (2.9 times), but has decreased from 4.2 times in Q3/2024 thanks to the debt restructuring strategy
- Current land bank with 526 ha is sufficient for development in the next 5-7 years, focusing on the high-end segment with expected profit margins of 32-35%
- EVG is leading the industry in the rate of green-certified projects (78.3% of portfolio), higher than VHM (42.8%) and NLG (53.5%)
5 Main Risks and 3 Mitigation Strategies When Investing in EVG Stock
Despite having a 23.3% growth potential, EVG stock faces 5 specific risks that investors need to carefully evaluate. Pocket Option ranks the severity and probability of each risk on a scale of 10, while also suggesting specific mitigation measures.
Legal and Planning Risks
Decree 35/2025/ND-CP tightening the approval process for coastal tourism projects from March 15, 2025, is the biggest challenge. EVG has 3 projects (total 188ha) in the final approval process that could be delayed by 6-8 months. Mitigation measure: The company has established a “Legal Task Force” of 8 experts with a budget of 12 billion VND to accelerate progress.
| Risk Type | Severity (1-10) | Probability (%) | EVG’s Mitigation Measure | Impact on Stock Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legal Risk | 8.5 | 65% | Task force of 8 experts, budget of 12 billion | -12% to -18% |
| Financial Risk | 7.2 | 55% | 22% reduction in short-term debt, restructuring 42% of long-term debt | -8% to -15% |
| Market Risk | 6.5 | 40% | Diversification into 3 new segments | -5% to -12% |
| Competitive Risk | 5.8 | 35% | Differentiation strategy “green tourism” | -3% to -7% |
| Operational Risk | 4.2 | 25% | Cooperation with 2 international management partners | -2% to -5% |
Financial risk is the second threat with a debt/equity ratio of 1.4 times higher than the industry average. In the context that interest rates may stop decreasing from Q3/2025 according to Techcombank Securities’ forecast, EVG will have to bear an additional pressure of 12.5 billion VND in interest expenses each year (equivalent to 14.4% of profit).
Low liquidity (average 128,500 shares/day) is a real risk for large investors. With this volume, exiting a position of over 100,000 shares can take 3-5 sessions and create a downward pressure of 3-5%. This is why institutional investment funds currently only hold 8.7% of EVG shares, much lower than VHM (32.5%) and NLG (28.3%).
To mitigate risks, the investment strategy for EVG should:
- Limit EVG weight to no more than 5-7% of the total portfolio, especially for individual investors with capital under 500 million VND
- Apply a phased buying strategy with 3-4 different entry points, avoiding concentrating all capital at one time
- Combine the portfolio with defensive stocks like REE, FPT, or major bank stocks to balance risk
- Establish strict stop loss mechanisms: stop the decline at -8.5% for short-term positions and -13.4% for medium-long term positions
Conclusion: EVG Outlook to 2026 and 3 Investment Scenarios
The comprehensive fundamental and technical analysis of EVG stock shows a stock with clear medium-long term growth potential, but with risks that need to be carefully managed. With a price increase potential of 23.3% in the next 12 months according to the DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model and P/B comparative valuation, EVG deserves consideration in the portfolio of investors looking for opportunities from the tourism-real estate industry.
In the short term (Q2-Q3/2025), the main drivers come from: (1) Q1/2025 report expected to grow 18.5% (announced April 25), (2) Completion of debt restructuring reducing 22% of short-term debt (expected June 2025), and (3) Announcement of 2 new projects in Phu Quoc and Nha Trang (expected July 2025). These factors could push the price to a near target of 19,850 VND (+8.8%).
Medium term (Q4/2025-Q2/2026), prospects depend on: (1) Delivery progress of 3 major projects with expected revenue of 785 billion VND, (2) Profit margin improving to 29.8% thanks to reduced capital costs, and (3) Increasing foreign ownership from 8.7% to a target of 15% to improve liquidity. Expected price target for this period: 21,200 VND (+16.2%).
Pocket Option builds 3 scenarios for EVG stock until the end of 2026:
| Scenario | Probability | Target Price End of 2026 | Determining Factors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Positive | 35% | 26,800 VND (+46.8%) | Completing 95%+ progress on 3 major projects; net profit growth >40%; debt ratio reduction to <1.0 |
| Base | 50% | 22,500 VND (+23.3%) | Completing 85%+ project progress; net profit growth 25-35%; debt ratio reduction to 1.1-1.2 |
| Negative | 15% | 15,500 VND (-15.1%) | Projects delayed >9 months; net profit increases <10%; prolonged financial difficulties |
Conclusion: With a profit/risk ratio (RRR) of 3.2:1 and a success probability of 85%, whether to buy EVG stock is “Yes” – but only with a reasonable weight (5-7% of portfolio), a partial entry strategy, and disciplined adherence to stop loss levels. Investors should take advantage of adjustments in the range of 16,450-17,200 VND to build long-term positions, while closely monitoring information about project progress and the company’s financial situation in quarterly reports.
FAQ
What is the current trading price of EVG stock?
Currently (April 10, 2025), EVG is trading at 18,250 dong per share, up 12.5% from its March 2025 low and 5.2% higher than the 30-session average price. The average trading volume for the last 10 days reached 128,500 shares per session, 22% lower than the 30-day average - a sign of accumulation phase. For the latest prices, please check reliable Vietnamese stock trading platforms.
What are EVG's key projects in the near future?
EVG is focusing on 3 strategic projects that play a decisive role in the stock's prospects over the next 18 months: (1) Phu Quoc Marina Complex (225 ha, 65% progress) - a resort-entertainment complex with 1,250 hotel rooms and 350 beach villas, (2) Nha Trang Horizons (78 ha, 70% progress) - a complex of condotels and luxury shopping centers with LEED Silver certification, and (3) Da Lat Eco Resort (43 ha, 52% progress) - a premium ecological resort integrating organic agriculture. The total estimated value of these three projects is 5,350 billion dong.
How to assess the right time to buy EVG stock?
The optimal strategy for EVG is "building a position in parts" with 3 ideal buying points: (1) Current price range of 18,000-18,500 dong (40% of planned capital), (2) Fibonacci support zone 38.2% at 17,200 dong (30% of capital), and (3) Fibonacci support zone 61.8% at 16,450 dong (remaining 30% of capital). Technically, priority should be given to buying when RSI is below 45 with trading volume increasing 30-50% compared to the 5-session average. Pay special attention to the period before quarterly earnings announcement (April 25, 2025) when prices typically adjust 3-5% before rising sharply.
Is EVG a suitable stock for long-term investment?
EVG is suitable for long-term investment portfolios (12-30 months) with a weight of 5-7% of the total portfolio, especially for investors with medium-high risk appetite. This stock has growth potential of 23.3% in 12 months and up to 46.8% in a positive scenario by the end of 2026. However, EVG should not be considered a "buy and forget" stock due to the nature of the real estate-tourism industry with strong cyclical fluctuations. The optimal strategy is "active investment", closely monitoring 3 indicators: (1) Project progress through quarterly reports, (2) Debt-to-equity ratio, and (3) Gross profit margin. Consider taking partial profits when reaching 70-80% of the target.
How to track and update information about EVG stock?
To effectively monitor EVG's developments, build a multi-tier monitoring system including: (1) Follow official information from HOSE and EVG websites (everland.vn/investors), (2) Register to receive in-depth analysis reports from 3 securities companies with strong real estate analysis teams (SSI, HSC, VCSC), (3) Set up technical alerts via the Pocket Option app for 5 important price levels: 16,450d, 17,200d, 18,750d, 19,850d and 21,200d, (4) Follow industry information through 2 reputable specialized sites: batdongsan.com.vn and cafeland.vn, and (5) Join in-depth discussion groups about EVG stocks on reputable forums such as vietstock.vn and f319.com, where many experts share independent analysis.