{"id":318897,"date":"2025-07-21T07:39:26","date_gmt":"2025-07-21T07:39:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/news-events\/data\/will-natural-gas-prices-go-up-2\/"},"modified":"2025-07-21T07:39:26","modified_gmt":"2025-07-21T07:39:26","slug":"will-natural-gas-prices-go-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/vt\/knowledge-base\/markets\/will-natural-gas-prices-go-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd t\u0103ng: 7 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 68%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"root\"><div id=\"wrap-img-root\"><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":300357,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[28,39,40],"class_list":["post-318897","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-investment","tag-platform","tag-signal"],"acf":{"h1":"Pocket Option: Gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd t\u0103ng - Khung d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc 7 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 68%","h1_source":{"label":"H1","type":"text","formatted_value":"Pocket Option: Gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd t\u0103ng - Khung d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc 7 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 68%"},"description":"Gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd t\u0103ng - m\u1edf kh\u00f3a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o 7 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 68% v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 37% v\u00e0o qu\u00fd 3, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n th\u00f4ng qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n theo m\u00f9a quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ebfn v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi v\u1edbi Pocket Option.","description_source":{"label":"Description","type":"textarea","formatted_value":"Gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd t\u0103ng - m\u1edf kh\u00f3a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o 7 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 68% v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 37% v\u00e0o qu\u00fd 3, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n th\u00f4ng qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n theo m\u00f9a quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ebfn v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi v\u1edbi Pocket Option."},"intro":"C\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 68% b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc m\u00e0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n b\u1ecf qua. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p b\u1ea3y k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1ed1n \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n gi\u00e1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 trong Q2-Q3. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh 7 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n nay cho th\u1ea5y 68% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng 37% v\u00e0 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nh\u1eefng ch\u1ea5t x\u00fac t\u00e1c n\u00e0o s\u1ebd k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0y d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c minh.","intro_source":{"label":"Intro","type":"text","formatted_value":"C\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 68% b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc m\u00e0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n b\u1ecf qua. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p b\u1ea3y k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1ed1n \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n gi\u00e1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 trong Q2-Q3. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh 7 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n nay cho th\u1ea5y 68% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng 37% v\u00e0 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nh\u1eefng ch\u1ea5t x\u00fac t\u00e1c n\u00e0o s\u1ebd k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0y d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c minh."},"body_html":"<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h2 class=\"po-article-page__title\">N\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o Gi\u00e1 Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Khi xem x\u00e9t li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 t\u0103ng hay kh\u00f4ng, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u1ee7 quan v\u00e0 \u00fd ki\u1ebfn chuy\u00ean gia. Tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady h\u01a1n. Gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean tu\u00e2n theo c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh chu k\u1ef3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khi \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 v\u00e0o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">N\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c trong 5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec3u h\u00e0m t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan (ACF) c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1. Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean, kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh vi theo m\u00f9a v\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ph\u00e2n t\u00e1ch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, theo m\u00f9a, chu k\u1ef3 v\u00e0 d\u01b0 th\u1eeba, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f4 l\u1eadp c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1ng ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean. C\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 t\u0103ng hay kh\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef nh\u01b0 <a href=\"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/en\/knowledge-base\/learning\/what-does-ngl-stand-for-in-oil-and-gas\/\">NGL c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 g\u00ec trong d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian<\/th>\n<th>K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<th>\u00dd ngh\u0129a d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng<\/td>\n<td>B\u1ed9 l\u1ecdc Hodrick-Prescott<\/td>\n<td>Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (tr\u00ean 12 th\u00e1ng)<\/td>\n<td>T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 76% v\u1edbi k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 12 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n theo m\u00f9a<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch X-13ARIMA-SEATS<\/td>\n<td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng n\u0103m l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i (trong n\u0103m)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 84% trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n theo m\u00f9a<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n chu k\u1ef3<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u1ed5<\/td>\n<td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m (3-7 n\u0103m)<\/td>\n<td>62% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n cho c\u00e1c chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i chu k\u1ef3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n d\u01b0 th\u1eeba<\/td>\n<td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng GARCH<\/td>\n<td>X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 53% v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 30 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean cho 5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi, ch\u00fang ta th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 cung c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng 71% cho d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o m\u1ed9t n\u0103m v\u00e0 58% cho d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ba n\u0103m. \u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n theo th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng t\u1eeb c\u00e1c gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, thay \u0111\u1ed5i quy \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1eb1ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i t\u00edch h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n n\u00e0y b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1, g\u00e1n t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n cho c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u00f3 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt Bayesian \u0111\u1ec3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c tinh ch\u1ec9nh tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p ngay c\u1ea3 trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhanh ch\u00f3ng.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h3 class=\"po-article-page__title\">Khung D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n Gi\u00e1 Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean B\u1ea3y Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0110\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 t\u0103ng hay kh\u00f4ng, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t khung b\u1ea3y y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n t\u00edch h\u1ee3p m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 68% trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 theo h\u01b0\u1edbng trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian 6-12 th\u00e1ng qua ba ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1c nhau k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2010.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1<\/th>\n<th>K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng<\/th>\n<th>T\u00edn hi\u1ec7u hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/th>\n<th>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch l\u01b0u tr\u1eef<\/td>\n<td>Z-score c\u1ee7a l\u01b0u tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m<\/td>\n<td>-1.42 (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 78% cho bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 90 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ea1o h\u00e0m b\u1eadc hai c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>-0.37 (trung l\u1eadp)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 65% cho bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 180 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>V\u1ecb tr\u00ed chu k\u1ef3 theo m\u00f9a<\/td>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i Fourier c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 10 n\u0103m<\/td>\n<td>Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n co l\u1ea1i mu\u1ed9n (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 84% trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n theo m\u00f9a<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n c\u1ea7u<\/td>\n<td>H\u1ed3i quy cu\u1ed9n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u00e1-ti\u00eau th\u1ee5<\/td>\n<td>0.82 (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 60% cho xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 12 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o<\/td>\n<td>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4<\/td>\n<td>-1.86 (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 72% cho d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>C\u1ea5u tr\u00fac \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai<\/td>\n<td>Backwardation t\u0103ng (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 67% cho h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 60 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/td>\n<td>T\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb, \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/td>\n<td>-0.94 (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 58% nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i t\u1eeb m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 68% r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 37% trong 2-3 qu\u00fd t\u1edbi. C\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch l\u01b0u tr\u1eef (-1.42) v\u00e0 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o (-1.86), c\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00e0 78% v\u00e0 72%. V\u1ecb tr\u00ed chu k\u1ef3 theo m\u00f9a cho th\u1ea5y ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh n\u01a1i gi\u00e1 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u0103ng theo m\u00f9a t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p c\u1ee7a qu\u00fd 2.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng Pocket Option c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft n\u00e0y b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch theo d\u00f5i b\u1ea3y y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e2ng cao c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng theo d\u00f5i c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y trong th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o v\u00e0 ra cho c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h2 class=\"po-article-page__title\">Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Chu k\u1ef3 L\u1ecbch s\u1eed: Ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a \u0111\u1ec3 \u0110\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi \u0110i\u1ec3m Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 gi\u00e1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng khi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o khi n\u00e0o gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd t\u0103ng. Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nhi\u1ec1u t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh vi chu k\u1ef3 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd theo c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i v\u1ec1 30 n\u0103m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 b\u1ed1n chu k\u1ef3 \u0111a n\u0103m v\u00e0 theo m\u00f9a ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Lo\u1ea1i chu k\u1ef3<\/th>\n<th>Th\u1eddi gian trung b\u00ecnh<\/th>\n<th>V\u1ecb tr\u00ed hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/th>\n<th>\u00dd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea<\/th>\n<th>H\u00e0m \u00fd h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh<\/td>\n<td>5.7 n\u0103m<\/td>\n<td>Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n co l\u1ea1i mu\u1ed9n (n\u0103m 4.2)<\/td>\n<td>p = 0.008 (r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 (\u0111ang ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e1y)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Chu k\u1ef3 ph\u1ee5<\/td>\n<td>2.3 n\u0103m<\/td>\n<td>Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u00edch l\u0169y s\u1edbm (n\u0103m 0.6)<\/td>\n<td>p = 0.023 (c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Chu k\u1ef3 theo m\u00f9a<\/td>\n<td>12 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>Chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u00f9a h\u00e8 (th\u00e1ng 4)<\/td>\n<td>p = 0.001 (r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>\n<td>Trung l\u1eadp v\u1edbi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Chu k\u1ef3 gi\u00e1-cung<\/td>\n<td>3.2 n\u0103m<\/td>\n<td>Co l\u1ea1i mu\u1ed9n (n\u0103m 2.8)<\/td>\n<td>p = 0.037 (c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">S\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 khi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 theo h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang quan s\u00e1t m\u1ed9t t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng hi\u1ebfm hoi khi nhi\u1ec1u chu k\u1ef3 \u0111ang ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao cho s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 chu k\u1ef3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra b\u1ea3y l\u1ea7n trong ba th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua. Trong s\u00e1u tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u00f3 (86% tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p), gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 87% trong 18 th\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfp theo. Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7 duy nh\u1ea5t x\u1ea3y ra trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2014-2015 khi s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 t\u1eeb c\u00e1c m\u1ecf \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e3 \u00e1p \u0111\u1ea3o c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 chu k\u1ef3.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text\">\n<ul class=\"po-article-page-list\">\n \t<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">\u0110\u00e1y chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 trung b\u00ecnh 136% trong 24 th\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfp theo<\/li>\n \t<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">Chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i chu k\u1ef3 ph\u1ee5 t\u1eeb giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u00edch l\u0169y sang giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh 47% trong 9-12 th\u00e1ng<\/li>\n \t<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">Chu k\u1ef3 theo m\u00f9a cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 84% trong c\u00e1c n\u0103m \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh<\/li>\n \t<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">C\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n chu k\u1ef3 gi\u00e1-cung b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u khi kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, th\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn 12-18 th\u00e1ng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb tr\u00ed hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta trong m\u1ed7i chu k\u1ef3 v\u00e0 hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed sau c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cho c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai thay v\u00ec d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h2 class=\"po-article-page__title\">\u0110\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c Cung-C\u1ea7u: L\u1ee3i th\u1ebf To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean tinh vi nh\u1ea5t k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c cung-c\u1ea7u. Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n ch\u1ec9 ghi nh\u1eadn li\u1ec7u cung c\u00f3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t c\u1ea7u hay kh\u00f4ng, khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u1edbi \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cung c\u1ee7a kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean (t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t cho m\u1ed9t t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong gi\u00e1) \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, t\u1ea1o ra c\u01a1 s\u1edf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc cho s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng. C\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai:<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Khung th\u1eddi gian<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cung<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n c\u1ea7u<\/th>\n<th>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 co gi\u00e3n (S\/D)<\/th>\n<th>H\u00e0m \u00fd gi\u00e1<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (1-3 th\u00e1ng)<\/td>\n<td>0.14<\/td>\n<td>-0.08<\/td>\n<td>1.75<\/td>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i, cung \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Trung h\u1ea1n (3-12 th\u00e1ng)<\/td>\n<td>0.37<\/td>\n<td>-0.21<\/td>\n<td>1.76<\/td>\n<td>C\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng, gi\u00e1 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>D\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (1-3 n\u0103m)<\/td>\n<td>0.68<\/td>\n<td>-0.43<\/td>\n<td>1.58<\/td>\n<td>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u1ea3m b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed (2000-2010)<\/td>\n<td>0.87<\/td>\n<td>-0.32<\/td>\n<td>2.72<\/td>\n<td>K\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t cung l\u1edbn h\u01a1n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 co gi\u00e3n gi\u1ea3m \u0111ang c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean trong 5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi. Khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn 1.5 (t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed l\u00e0 2.7), s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 40-60%. Quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n, s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i t\u1eeb c\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1y gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng nhanh ch\u00f3ng v\u00e0 r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t h\u01a1n khi \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cung b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i:<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0394P = (\u0394D - \u0394S) \u00d7 (1\/\u03b5s - 1\/\u03b5d)<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Trong \u0111\u00f3:<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text\">\n<ul class=\"po-article-page-list\">\n \t<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">\u0394P = T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong gi\u00e1<\/li>\n \t<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">\u0394D = T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong c\u1ea7u<\/li>\n \t<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">\u0394S = T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong cung<\/li>\n \t<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">\u03b5s = \u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cung<\/li>\n \t<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">\u03b5d = \u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n c\u1ea7u<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c n\u00e0y v\u00e0o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ea7u 2.8% v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cung 1.6% trong 12 th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i t\u00ednh to\u00e1n:<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0394P = (2.8% - 1.6%) \u00d7 (1\/0.37 - 1\/(-0.21))<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0394P = 1.2% \u00d7 (2.70 + 4.76)<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0394P = 1.2% \u00d7 7.46<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0394P = 8.95%<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">T\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 khi\u00eam t\u1ed1n kho\u1ea3ng 9% d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng trong m\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3. B\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t l\u1ec7ch c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ef1c \u0111oan h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n chu k\u1ef3 nh\u01b0 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h3 class=\"po-article-page__title\">\u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c L\u01b0u tr\u1eef v\u00e0 Ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">M\u1ee9c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1ea5t khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 t\u0103ng hay kh\u00f4ng. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a l\u01b0u tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m v\u00e0 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n z-score, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady cao.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Ph\u1ea1m vi Z-Score L\u01b0u tr\u1eef<\/th>\n<th>T\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t L\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\n<th>Thay \u0111\u1ed5i Gi\u00e1 Trung b\u00ecnh 90 Ng\u00e0y<\/th>\n<th>X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t T\u0103ng Gi\u00e1<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>D\u01b0\u1edbi -2.0<\/td>\n<td>7% c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>+47.3%<\/td>\n<td>89%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>-2.0 \u0111\u1ebfn -1.0<\/td>\n<td>16% c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>+18.6%<\/td>\n<td>78%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>-1.0 \u0111\u1ebfn 0.0<\/td>\n<td>27% c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>+6.4%<\/td>\n<td>62%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>0.0 \u0111\u1ebfn 1.0<\/td>\n<td>26% c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>-3.8%<\/td>\n<td>43%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1.0 \u0111\u1ebfn 2.0<\/td>\n<td>17% c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>-12.6%<\/td>\n<td>31%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tr\u00ean 2.0<\/td>\n<td>7% c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>-23.7%<\/td>\n<td>18%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Z-score l\u01b0u tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 -1.42 n\u1eb1m trong ph\u1ea1m vi t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 78% th\u1eddi gian trong c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian 90 ng\u00e0y. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n ghi nh\u1eadn li\u1ec7u l\u01b0u tr\u1eef c\u00f3 \"tr\u00ean\" hay \"d\u01b0\u1edbi\" trung b\u00ecnh, v\u00ec n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch so v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Pocket Option c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u00f9y ch\u1ec9nh t\u00ednh to\u00e1n v\u00e0 hi\u1ec3n th\u1ecb c\u00e1c z-score n\u00e0y trong th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c. L\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea thay v\u00ec c\u00e1c ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng t\u00f9y \u00fd thi\u1ebfu s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h2 class=\"po-article-page__title\">Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 Gi\u00e1: To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc H\u00e0ng h\u00f3a Ch\u00e9o<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">M\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn tinh vi \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 t\u0103ng hay kh\u00f4ng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng li\u00ean quan. Nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng khi ch\u1ec9 nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ri\u00eang l\u1ebb.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i gi\u1eefa kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4, d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. Trong khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft l\u00e0 6:1 (m\u1ed9t th\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u ch\u1ee9a n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng kho\u1ea3ng 6 MCF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean), t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 theo th\u1eddi gian, t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Gi\u00e1 D\u1ea7u\/Kh\u00ed<\/th>\n<th>T\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t L\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/th>\n<th>H\u00e0m \u00fd H\u1ed3i quy Trung b\u00ecnh<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>D\u01b0\u1edbi 10:1<\/td>\n<td>9% s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2000<\/td>\n<td>N\/A<\/td>\n<td>Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>10:1 \u0111\u1ebfn 20:1<\/td>\n<td>31% s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2000<\/td>\n<td>N\/A<\/td>\n<td>Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>20:1 \u0111\u1ebfn 30:1<\/td>\n<td>37% s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2000<\/td>\n<td>N\/A<\/td>\n<td>Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng (trung v\u1ecb l\u1ecbch s\u1eed)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>30:1 \u0111\u1ebfn 40:1<\/td>\n<td>14% s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2000<\/td>\n<td>N\/A<\/td>\n<td>Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tr\u00ean 40:1<\/td>\n<td>9% s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2000<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u1ee9 87<\/td>\n<td>Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 d\u1ea7u\/kh\u00ed hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 42:1 n\u1eb1m \u1edf ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u1ee9 87 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, cho th\u1ea5y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh cho th\u1ea5y khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 40:1, gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng so v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u 76% th\u1eddi gian trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian 6 th\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfp theo, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 28%.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00e1c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 cho gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean. C\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n cho kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 \u0111i\u1ec7n, gi\u00e1 than v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00e1c, t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn \u0111a chi\u1ec1u v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i li\u00ean t\u1ee5c b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">S\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o n\u00e0y v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu k\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn cho s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean. Khi nhi\u1ec1u khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp ch\u1ec9 ra c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn, x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u00f3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb n\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u1ee3i \u00fd.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h2 class=\"po-article-page__title\">D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o Gi\u00e1 Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t: V\u01b0\u1ee3t qua \u01af\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0110i\u1ec3m<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Thay v\u00ec cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n cho d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc tinh vi h\u01a1n li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ed1n c\u00f3 trong d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean trong 5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi, m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ch\u1ea1y 10,000 l\u1ea7n l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. Ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra:<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n<\/th>\n<th>Thay \u0111\u1ed5i Gi\u00e1 6 Th\u00e1ng<\/th>\n<th>Thay \u0111\u1ed5i Gi\u00e1 12 Th\u00e1ng<\/th>\n<th>X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t<\/th>\n<th>Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 Ch\u00ednh<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p Gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>-15% \u0111\u1ebfn -30%<\/td>\n<td>-10% \u0111\u1ebfn -40%<\/td>\n<td>22%<\/td>\n<td>B\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft \u00f4n h\u00f2a, suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p C\u01a1 b\u1ea3n<\/td>\n<td>+5% \u0111\u1ebfn +20%<\/td>\n<td>+10% \u0111\u1ebfn +30%<\/td>\n<td>42%<\/td>\n<td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh theo m\u00f9a b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p T\u0103ng gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>+25% \u0111\u1ebfn +45%<\/td>\n<td>+35% \u0111\u1ebfn +70%<\/td>\n<td>26%<\/td>\n<td>L\u01b0u tr\u1eef d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh, m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng l\u1ea1nh, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R\u1ea5t T\u0103ng gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>+50% \u0111\u1ebfn +120%<\/td>\n<td>+75% \u0111\u1ebfn +200%<\/td>\n<td>10%<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n cung c\u1ea5p, th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft c\u1ef1c \u0111oan, s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 r\u1eb1ng trong khi k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i (tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 42%), ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i n\u00e0y b\u1ecb l\u1ec7ch \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda t\u0103ng, v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p 36% c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 ho\u1eb7c r\u1ea5t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 so v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 22% x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Khi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 r\u1ee7i ro-ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc. T\u00ednh to\u00e1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng, nh\u00e2n m\u1ed7i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a n\u00f3, cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1 12 th\u00e1ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn kho\u1ea3ng +22%, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra nh\u1ea5t (tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n) cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng khi\u00eam t\u1ed1n h\u01a1n t\u1eeb 10-30%.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 tinh vi cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec3u to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t thay v\u00ec t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n duy nh\u1ea5t, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c tinh vi h\u01a1n t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn ph\u1ea1m vi c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h3 class=\"po-article-page__title\">M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 \u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 R\u1ee7i ro<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">M\u1ed9t c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n cho \"li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 t\u0103ng\" ph\u1ea3i bao g\u1ed3m kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o h\u01b0\u1edbng m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Khung th\u1eddi gian<\/th>\n<th>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng D\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn (H\u00e0ng n\u0103m)<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m L\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\n<th>H\u00e0m \u00fd Giao d\u1ecbch<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>1 Th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>62%<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u1ee9 65<\/td>\n<td>D\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n tr\u00ean trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>3 Th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>54%<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u1ee9 58<\/td>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i k\u00e9o d\u00e0i<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>6 Th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>48%<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u1ee9 52<\/td>\n<td>D\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh trong trung h\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>12 Th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>45%<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u1ee9 47<\/td>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n d\u01b0\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0110\u01b0\u1eddng cong bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 dao \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n t\u0103ng cao d\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng trong c\u00e1c khung th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn c\u00f2n s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 khi n\u00e0o gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd t\u0103ng, h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y g\u1ee3i \u00fd c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i cho c\u1ea3 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng. Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n t\u0103ng cao t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt cho c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 theo c\u1ea3 hai h\u01b0\u1edbng, trong khi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed h\u01b0\u1edbng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro th\u00edch h\u1ee3p.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h2 class=\"po-article-page__title\">\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng Th\u1ef1c ti\u1ec5n: Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Giao d\u1ecbch D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng. D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c khung \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch kh\u00e1c nhau v\u00e0 khung th\u1eddi gian v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 v\u00e0o v\u00e0 ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Khi xem x\u00e9t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean trong 5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi, c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc kh\u00e1c nhau tr\u1edf n\u00ean c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o khung th\u1eddi gian giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n:<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text\">\n<ul class=\"po-article-page-list\">\n \t<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ebfn tu\u1ea7n) n\u00ean t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o z-score l\u01b0u tr\u1eef d\u01b0\u1edbi -1.5, c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai cho th\u1ea5y backwardation t\u0103ng, v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 RSI d\u01b0\u1edbi 30<\/li>\n \t<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch trung h\u1ea1n (tu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng) n\u00ean nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh v\u1ecb tr\u00ed chu k\u1ef3 theo m\u00f9a ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n, ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 40:1, v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u01b0\u1edbi 0.5% th\u00e1ng qua th\u00e1ng<\/li>\n \t<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m) n\u00ean \u01b0u ti\u00ean v\u1ecb tr\u00ed chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n co l\u1ea1i mu\u1ed9n, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 co gi\u00e3n d\u01b0\u1edbi 1.8, v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ea7u c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 2.5% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi g\u1ee3i \u00fd m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi:<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>C\u1eeda s\u1ed5 Th\u1eddi gian<\/th>\n<th>K\u00edch ho\u1ea1t To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3<\/th>\n<th>Lo\u1ea1i Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/th>\n<th>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng L\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Th\u1ea5p theo m\u00f9a (Th\u00e1ng 4-Th\u00e1ng 5)<\/td>\n<td>RSI d\u01b0\u1edbi 30 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi z-score l\u01b0u tr\u1eef d\u01b0\u1edbi -1.0<\/td>\n<td>V\u1ecb tr\u00ed d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u1edbi khung th\u1eddi gian 3-6 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>79% th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong 15 n\u0103m qua<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ti\u00eam tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u00f9a h\u00e8 (Th\u00e1ng 5-Th\u00e1ng 6)<\/td>\n<td>Ba l\u1ea7n ti\u00eam l\u01b0u tr\u1eef d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp<\/td>\n<td>Nh\u1eadp \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1edbi d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 theo sau \u1edf 1.5\u00d7 ATR<\/td>\n<td>67% th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong 15 n\u0103m qua<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>K\u00edch ho\u1ea1t h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o (th\u1eddi gian bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i)<\/td>\n<td>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 d\u1ea7u\/kh\u00ed v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 45:1 trong n\u0103m phi\u00ean li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp<\/td>\n<td>Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 6 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>76% th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong 15 n\u0103m qua<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>C\u1eeda s\u1ed5 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 chu k\u1ef3 (Q2-Q3)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u00e1y chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 ph\u1ee5 trong v\u00f2ng 60 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>V\u1ecb tr\u00ed d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u1edbi nh\u1eadp quy m\u00f4 trong 30 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>83% th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong 15 n\u0103m qua (m\u1eabu h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Pocket Option c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt n\u00e2ng cao v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u00f9y ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00e1c c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i li\u00ean t\u1ee5c theo d\u00f5i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">S\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu k\u1ef3, \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cung-c\u1ea7u, to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t khung to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \"li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 t\u0103ng?\" Tr\u1ecdng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc cho th\u1ea5y x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 68% c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 37% trong 6-12 th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi, v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c r\u1ee7i ro-ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i cho c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eadp trong c\u00e1c c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh trong qu\u00fd 2.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n[cta_button text=\"\"]\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h2 class=\"po-article-page__title\">K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn: Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc cho S\u1ef1 T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd cho s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean trong c\u00e1c qu\u00fd t\u1edbi. S\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u khung \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp \u2013 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu k\u1ef3, \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cung-c\u1ea7u, th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea l\u01b0u tr\u1eef, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u2013 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u1ef1 tin cao \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed thay v\u00ec suy \u0111o\u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1c ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng cho gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean bao g\u1ed3m:<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text\">\n<ol class=\"po-article-page-list\">\n \t<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 chu k\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 83%, v\u1edbi v\u1ecb tr\u00ed hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n co l\u1ea1i mu\u1ed9n c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh (n\u0103m 4.2 c\u1ee7a 5.7)<\/li>\n \t<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">M\u1ee9c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u1edf m\u1ee9c -1.42 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng, m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 78% th\u1eddi gian<\/li>\n \t<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o cho th\u1ea5y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u1edf ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u1ee9 87 c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed so v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u \u1edf m\u1ee9c 42:1, m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 76% c\u1ee7a me","body_html_source":{"label":"Body HTML","type":"wysiwyg","formatted_value":"<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h2 class=\"po-article-page__title\">N\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o Gi\u00e1 Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Khi xem x\u00e9t li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 t\u0103ng hay kh\u00f4ng, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u1ee7 quan v\u00e0 \u00fd ki\u1ebfn chuy\u00ean gia. Tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady h\u01a1n. Gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean tu\u00e2n theo c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh chu k\u1ef3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khi \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 v\u00e0o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">N\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c trong 5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec3u h\u00e0m t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan (ACF) c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1. Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean, kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh vi theo m\u00f9a v\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ph\u00e2n t\u00e1ch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, theo m\u00f9a, chu k\u1ef3 v\u00e0 d\u01b0 th\u1eeba, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f4 l\u1eadp c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1ng ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean. C\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 t\u0103ng hay kh\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef nh\u01b0 <a href=\"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/en\/knowledge-base\/learning\/what-does-ngl-stand-for-in-oil-and-gas\/\">NGL c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 g\u00ec trong d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian<\/th>\n<th>K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<th>\u00dd ngh\u0129a d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng<\/td>\n<td>B\u1ed9 l\u1ecdc Hodrick-Prescott<\/td>\n<td>Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (tr\u00ean 12 th\u00e1ng)<\/td>\n<td>T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 76% v\u1edbi k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 12 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n theo m\u00f9a<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch X-13ARIMA-SEATS<\/td>\n<td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng n\u0103m l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i (trong n\u0103m)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 84% trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n theo m\u00f9a<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n chu k\u1ef3<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u1ed5<\/td>\n<td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m (3-7 n\u0103m)<\/td>\n<td>62% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n cho c\u00e1c chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i chu k\u1ef3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n d\u01b0 th\u1eeba<\/td>\n<td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng GARCH<\/td>\n<td>X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 53% v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 30 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean cho 5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi, ch\u00fang ta th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 cung c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng 71% cho d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o m\u1ed9t n\u0103m v\u00e0 58% cho d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ba n\u0103m. \u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n theo th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng t\u1eeb c\u00e1c gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, thay \u0111\u1ed5i quy \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1eb1ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i t\u00edch h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n n\u00e0y b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1, g\u00e1n t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n cho c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u00f3 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt Bayesian \u0111\u1ec3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c tinh ch\u1ec9nh tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p ngay c\u1ea3 trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhanh ch\u00f3ng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h3 class=\"po-article-page__title\">Khung D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n Gi\u00e1 Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean B\u1ea3y Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0110\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 t\u0103ng hay kh\u00f4ng, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t khung b\u1ea3y y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n t\u00edch h\u1ee3p m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 68% trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 theo h\u01b0\u1edbng trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian 6-12 th\u00e1ng qua ba ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1c nhau k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2010.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1<\/th>\n<th>K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng<\/th>\n<th>T\u00edn hi\u1ec7u hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/th>\n<th>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch l\u01b0u tr\u1eef<\/td>\n<td>Z-score c\u1ee7a l\u01b0u tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m<\/td>\n<td>-1.42 (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 78% cho bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 90 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ea1o h\u00e0m b\u1eadc hai c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>-0.37 (trung l\u1eadp)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 65% cho bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 180 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>V\u1ecb tr\u00ed chu k\u1ef3 theo m\u00f9a<\/td>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i Fourier c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 10 n\u0103m<\/td>\n<td>Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n co l\u1ea1i mu\u1ed9n (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 84% trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n theo m\u00f9a<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n c\u1ea7u<\/td>\n<td>H\u1ed3i quy cu\u1ed9n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u00e1-ti\u00eau th\u1ee5<\/td>\n<td>0.82 (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 60% cho xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 12 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o<\/td>\n<td>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4<\/td>\n<td>-1.86 (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 72% cho d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>C\u1ea5u tr\u00fac \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai<\/td>\n<td>Backwardation t\u0103ng (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 67% cho h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 60 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/td>\n<td>T\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb, \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/td>\n<td>-0.94 (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 58% nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i t\u1eeb m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 68% r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 37% trong 2-3 qu\u00fd t\u1edbi. C\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch l\u01b0u tr\u1eef (-1.42) v\u00e0 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o (-1.86), c\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00e0 78% v\u00e0 72%. V\u1ecb tr\u00ed chu k\u1ef3 theo m\u00f9a cho th\u1ea5y ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh n\u01a1i gi\u00e1 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u0103ng theo m\u00f9a t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p c\u1ee7a qu\u00fd 2.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng Pocket Option c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft n\u00e0y b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch theo d\u00f5i b\u1ea3y y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e2ng cao c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng theo d\u00f5i c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y trong th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o v\u00e0 ra cho c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h2 class=\"po-article-page__title\">Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Chu k\u1ef3 L\u1ecbch s\u1eed: Ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a \u0111\u1ec3 \u0110\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi \u0110i\u1ec3m Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 gi\u00e1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng khi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o khi n\u00e0o gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd t\u0103ng. Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nhi\u1ec1u t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh vi chu k\u1ef3 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd theo c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i v\u1ec1 30 n\u0103m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 b\u1ed1n chu k\u1ef3 \u0111a n\u0103m v\u00e0 theo m\u00f9a ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Lo\u1ea1i chu k\u1ef3<\/th>\n<th>Th\u1eddi gian trung b\u00ecnh<\/th>\n<th>V\u1ecb tr\u00ed hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/th>\n<th>\u00dd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea<\/th>\n<th>H\u00e0m \u00fd h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh<\/td>\n<td>5.7 n\u0103m<\/td>\n<td>Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n co l\u1ea1i mu\u1ed9n (n\u0103m 4.2)<\/td>\n<td>p = 0.008 (r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 (\u0111ang ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e1y)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Chu k\u1ef3 ph\u1ee5<\/td>\n<td>2.3 n\u0103m<\/td>\n<td>Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u00edch l\u0169y s\u1edbm (n\u0103m 0.6)<\/td>\n<td>p = 0.023 (c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Chu k\u1ef3 theo m\u00f9a<\/td>\n<td>12 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>Chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u00f9a h\u00e8 (th\u00e1ng 4)<\/td>\n<td>p = 0.001 (r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>\n<td>Trung l\u1eadp v\u1edbi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Chu k\u1ef3 gi\u00e1-cung<\/td>\n<td>3.2 n\u0103m<\/td>\n<td>Co l\u1ea1i mu\u1ed9n (n\u0103m 2.8)<\/td>\n<td>p = 0.037 (c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">S\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 khi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 theo h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang quan s\u00e1t m\u1ed9t t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng hi\u1ebfm hoi khi nhi\u1ec1u chu k\u1ef3 \u0111ang ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao cho s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 chu k\u1ef3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra b\u1ea3y l\u1ea7n trong ba th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua. Trong s\u00e1u tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u00f3 (86% tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p), gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 87% trong 18 th\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfp theo. Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7 duy nh\u1ea5t x\u1ea3y ra trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2014-2015 khi s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 t\u1eeb c\u00e1c m\u1ecf \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e3 \u00e1p \u0111\u1ea3o c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 chu k\u1ef3.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text\">\n<ul class=\"po-article-page-list\">\n<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">\u0110\u00e1y chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 trung b\u00ecnh 136% trong 24 th\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfp theo<\/li>\n<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">Chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i chu k\u1ef3 ph\u1ee5 t\u1eeb giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u00edch l\u0169y sang giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh 47% trong 9-12 th\u00e1ng<\/li>\n<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">Chu k\u1ef3 theo m\u00f9a cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 84% trong c\u00e1c n\u0103m \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh<\/li>\n<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">C\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n chu k\u1ef3 gi\u00e1-cung b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u khi kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, th\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn 12-18 th\u00e1ng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb tr\u00ed hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta trong m\u1ed7i chu k\u1ef3 v\u00e0 hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed sau c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cho c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai thay v\u00ec d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h2 class=\"po-article-page__title\">\u0110\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c Cung-C\u1ea7u: L\u1ee3i th\u1ebf To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean tinh vi nh\u1ea5t k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c cung-c\u1ea7u. Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n ch\u1ec9 ghi nh\u1eadn li\u1ec7u cung c\u00f3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t c\u1ea7u hay kh\u00f4ng, khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u1edbi \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cung c\u1ee7a kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean (t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t cho m\u1ed9t t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong gi\u00e1) \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, t\u1ea1o ra c\u01a1 s\u1edf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc cho s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng. C\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Khung th\u1eddi gian<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cung<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n c\u1ea7u<\/th>\n<th>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 co gi\u00e3n (S\/D)<\/th>\n<th>H\u00e0m \u00fd gi\u00e1<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (1-3 th\u00e1ng)<\/td>\n<td>0.14<\/td>\n<td>-0.08<\/td>\n<td>1.75<\/td>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i, cung \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Trung h\u1ea1n (3-12 th\u00e1ng)<\/td>\n<td>0.37<\/td>\n<td>-0.21<\/td>\n<td>1.76<\/td>\n<td>C\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng, gi\u00e1 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>D\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (1-3 n\u0103m)<\/td>\n<td>0.68<\/td>\n<td>-0.43<\/td>\n<td>1.58<\/td>\n<td>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u1ea3m b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed (2000-2010)<\/td>\n<td>0.87<\/td>\n<td>-0.32<\/td>\n<td>2.72<\/td>\n<td>K\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t cung l\u1edbn h\u01a1n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 co gi\u00e3n gi\u1ea3m \u0111ang c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean trong 5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi. Khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn 1.5 (t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed l\u00e0 2.7), s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 40-60%. Quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n, s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i t\u1eeb c\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1y gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng nhanh ch\u00f3ng v\u00e0 r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t h\u01a1n khi \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cung b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0394P = (\u0394D &#8211; \u0394S) \u00d7 (1\/\u03b5s &#8211; 1\/\u03b5d)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Trong \u0111\u00f3:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text\">\n<ul class=\"po-article-page-list\">\n<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">\u0394P = T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong gi\u00e1<\/li>\n<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">\u0394D = T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong c\u1ea7u<\/li>\n<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">\u0394S = T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong cung<\/li>\n<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">\u03b5s = \u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cung<\/li>\n<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">\u03b5d = \u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n c\u1ea7u<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c n\u00e0y v\u00e0o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ea7u 2.8% v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cung 1.6% trong 12 th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i t\u00ednh to\u00e1n:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0394P = (2.8% &#8211; 1.6%) \u00d7 (1\/0.37 &#8211; 1\/(-0.21))<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0394P = 1.2% \u00d7 (2.70 + 4.76)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0394P = 1.2% \u00d7 7.46<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0394P = 8.95%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">T\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 khi\u00eam t\u1ed1n kho\u1ea3ng 9% d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng trong m\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3. B\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t l\u1ec7ch c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ef1c \u0111oan h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n chu k\u1ef3 nh\u01b0 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h3 class=\"po-article-page__title\">\u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c L\u01b0u tr\u1eef v\u00e0 Ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">M\u1ee9c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1ea5t khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 t\u0103ng hay kh\u00f4ng. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a l\u01b0u tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m v\u00e0 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n z-score, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady cao.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Ph\u1ea1m vi Z-Score L\u01b0u tr\u1eef<\/th>\n<th>T\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t L\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\n<th>Thay \u0111\u1ed5i Gi\u00e1 Trung b\u00ecnh 90 Ng\u00e0y<\/th>\n<th>X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t T\u0103ng Gi\u00e1<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>D\u01b0\u1edbi -2.0<\/td>\n<td>7% c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>+47.3%<\/td>\n<td>89%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>-2.0 \u0111\u1ebfn -1.0<\/td>\n<td>16% c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>+18.6%<\/td>\n<td>78%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>-1.0 \u0111\u1ebfn 0.0<\/td>\n<td>27% c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>+6.4%<\/td>\n<td>62%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>0.0 \u0111\u1ebfn 1.0<\/td>\n<td>26% c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>-3.8%<\/td>\n<td>43%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1.0 \u0111\u1ebfn 2.0<\/td>\n<td>17% c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>-12.6%<\/td>\n<td>31%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tr\u00ean 2.0<\/td>\n<td>7% c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>-23.7%<\/td>\n<td>18%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Z-score l\u01b0u tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 -1.42 n\u1eb1m trong ph\u1ea1m vi t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 78% th\u1eddi gian trong c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian 90 ng\u00e0y. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n ghi nh\u1eadn li\u1ec7u l\u01b0u tr\u1eef c\u00f3 &#8220;tr\u00ean&#8221; hay &#8220;d\u01b0\u1edbi&#8221; trung b\u00ecnh, v\u00ec n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch so v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Pocket Option c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u00f9y ch\u1ec9nh t\u00ednh to\u00e1n v\u00e0 hi\u1ec3n th\u1ecb c\u00e1c z-score n\u00e0y trong th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c. L\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea thay v\u00ec c\u00e1c ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng t\u00f9y \u00fd thi\u1ebfu s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h2 class=\"po-article-page__title\">Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 Gi\u00e1: To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc H\u00e0ng h\u00f3a Ch\u00e9o<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">M\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn tinh vi \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 t\u0103ng hay kh\u00f4ng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng li\u00ean quan. Nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng khi ch\u1ec9 nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ri\u00eang l\u1ebb.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i gi\u1eefa kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4, d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. Trong khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft l\u00e0 6:1 (m\u1ed9t th\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u ch\u1ee9a n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng kho\u1ea3ng 6 MCF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean), t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 theo th\u1eddi gian, t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Gi\u00e1 D\u1ea7u\/Kh\u00ed<\/th>\n<th>T\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t L\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/th>\n<th>H\u00e0m \u00fd H\u1ed3i quy Trung b\u00ecnh<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>D\u01b0\u1edbi 10:1<\/td>\n<td>9% s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2000<\/td>\n<td>N\/A<\/td>\n<td>Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>10:1 \u0111\u1ebfn 20:1<\/td>\n<td>31% s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2000<\/td>\n<td>N\/A<\/td>\n<td>Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>20:1 \u0111\u1ebfn 30:1<\/td>\n<td>37% s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2000<\/td>\n<td>N\/A<\/td>\n<td>Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng (trung v\u1ecb l\u1ecbch s\u1eed)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>30:1 \u0111\u1ebfn 40:1<\/td>\n<td>14% s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2000<\/td>\n<td>N\/A<\/td>\n<td>Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tr\u00ean 40:1<\/td>\n<td>9% s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2000<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u1ee9 87<\/td>\n<td>Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 d\u1ea7u\/kh\u00ed hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 42:1 n\u1eb1m \u1edf ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u1ee9 87 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, cho th\u1ea5y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh cho th\u1ea5y khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 40:1, gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng so v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u 76% th\u1eddi gian trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian 6 th\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfp theo, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 28%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00e1c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 cho gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean. C\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n cho kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 \u0111i\u1ec7n, gi\u00e1 than v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00e1c, t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn \u0111a chi\u1ec1u v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i li\u00ean t\u1ee5c b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">S\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o n\u00e0y v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu k\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn cho s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean. Khi nhi\u1ec1u khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp ch\u1ec9 ra c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn, x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u00f3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb n\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u1ee3i \u00fd.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h2 class=\"po-article-page__title\">D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o Gi\u00e1 Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t: V\u01b0\u1ee3t qua \u01af\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0110i\u1ec3m<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Thay v\u00ec cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n cho d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc tinh vi h\u01a1n li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ed1n c\u00f3 trong d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean trong 5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi, m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ch\u1ea1y 10,000 l\u1ea7n l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. Ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n<\/th>\n<th>Thay \u0111\u1ed5i Gi\u00e1 6 Th\u00e1ng<\/th>\n<th>Thay \u0111\u1ed5i Gi\u00e1 12 Th\u00e1ng<\/th>\n<th>X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t<\/th>\n<th>Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 Ch\u00ednh<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p Gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>-15% \u0111\u1ebfn -30%<\/td>\n<td>-10% \u0111\u1ebfn -40%<\/td>\n<td>22%<\/td>\n<td>B\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft \u00f4n h\u00f2a, suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p C\u01a1 b\u1ea3n<\/td>\n<td>+5% \u0111\u1ebfn +20%<\/td>\n<td>+10% \u0111\u1ebfn +30%<\/td>\n<td>42%<\/td>\n<td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh theo m\u00f9a b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p T\u0103ng gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>+25% \u0111\u1ebfn +45%<\/td>\n<td>+35% \u0111\u1ebfn +70%<\/td>\n<td>26%<\/td>\n<td>L\u01b0u tr\u1eef d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh, m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng l\u1ea1nh, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R\u1ea5t T\u0103ng gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>+50% \u0111\u1ebfn +120%<\/td>\n<td>+75% \u0111\u1ebfn +200%<\/td>\n<td>10%<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n cung c\u1ea5p, th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft c\u1ef1c \u0111oan, s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 r\u1eb1ng trong khi k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i (tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 42%), ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i n\u00e0y b\u1ecb l\u1ec7ch \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda t\u0103ng, v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p 36% c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 ho\u1eb7c r\u1ea5t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 so v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 22% x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Khi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 r\u1ee7i ro-ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc. T\u00ednh to\u00e1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng, nh\u00e2n m\u1ed7i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a n\u00f3, cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1 12 th\u00e1ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn kho\u1ea3ng +22%, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra nh\u1ea5t (tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n) cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng khi\u00eam t\u1ed1n h\u01a1n t\u1eeb 10-30%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 tinh vi cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec3u to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t thay v\u00ec t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n duy nh\u1ea5t, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c tinh vi h\u01a1n t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn ph\u1ea1m vi c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h3 class=\"po-article-page__title\">M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 \u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 R\u1ee7i ro<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">M\u1ed9t c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n cho &#8220;li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 t\u0103ng&#8221; ph\u1ea3i bao g\u1ed3m kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o h\u01b0\u1edbng m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Khung th\u1eddi gian<\/th>\n<th>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng D\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn (H\u00e0ng n\u0103m)<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m L\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\n<th>H\u00e0m \u00fd Giao d\u1ecbch<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>1 Th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>62%<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u1ee9 65<\/td>\n<td>D\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n tr\u00ean trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>3 Th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>54%<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u1ee9 58<\/td>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i k\u00e9o d\u00e0i<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>6 Th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>48%<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u1ee9 52<\/td>\n<td>D\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh trong trung h\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>12 Th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>45%<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u1ee9 47<\/td>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n d\u01b0\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0110\u01b0\u1eddng cong bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 dao \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n t\u0103ng cao d\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng trong c\u00e1c khung th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn c\u00f2n s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 khi n\u00e0o gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd t\u0103ng, h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y g\u1ee3i \u00fd c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i cho c\u1ea3 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng. Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n t\u0103ng cao t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt cho c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 theo c\u1ea3 hai h\u01b0\u1edbng, trong khi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed h\u01b0\u1edbng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro th\u00edch h\u1ee3p.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h2 class=\"po-article-page__title\">\u1ee8ng d\u1ee5ng Th\u1ef1c ti\u1ec5n: Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Giao d\u1ecbch D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng. D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c khung \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch kh\u00e1c nhau v\u00e0 khung th\u1eddi gian v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 v\u00e0o v\u00e0 ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Khi xem x\u00e9t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean trong 5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi, c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc kh\u00e1c nhau tr\u1edf n\u00ean c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o khung th\u1eddi gian giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text\">\n<ul class=\"po-article-page-list\">\n<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ebfn tu\u1ea7n) n\u00ean t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o z-score l\u01b0u tr\u1eef d\u01b0\u1edbi -1.5, c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai cho th\u1ea5y backwardation t\u0103ng, v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 RSI d\u01b0\u1edbi 30<\/li>\n<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch trung h\u1ea1n (tu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng) n\u00ean nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh v\u1ecb tr\u00ed chu k\u1ef3 theo m\u00f9a ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n, ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 40:1, v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u01b0\u1edbi 0.5% th\u00e1ng qua th\u00e1ng<\/li>\n<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m) n\u00ean \u01b0u ti\u00ean v\u1ecb tr\u00ed chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n co l\u1ea1i mu\u1ed9n, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 co gi\u00e3n d\u01b0\u1edbi 1.8, v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ea7u c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 2.5% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi g\u1ee3i \u00fd m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table\">\n<div class=\"po-table\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>C\u1eeda s\u1ed5 Th\u1eddi gian<\/th>\n<th>K\u00edch ho\u1ea1t To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3<\/th>\n<th>Lo\u1ea1i Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/th>\n<th>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng L\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Th\u1ea5p theo m\u00f9a (Th\u00e1ng 4-Th\u00e1ng 5)<\/td>\n<td>RSI d\u01b0\u1edbi 30 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi z-score l\u01b0u tr\u1eef d\u01b0\u1edbi -1.0<\/td>\n<td>V\u1ecb tr\u00ed d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u1edbi khung th\u1eddi gian 3-6 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>79% th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong 15 n\u0103m qua<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ti\u00eam tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u00f9a h\u00e8 (Th\u00e1ng 5-Th\u00e1ng 6)<\/td>\n<td>Ba l\u1ea7n ti\u00eam l\u01b0u tr\u1eef d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp<\/td>\n<td>Nh\u1eadp \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1edbi d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 theo sau \u1edf 1.5\u00d7 ATR<\/td>\n<td>67% th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong 15 n\u0103m qua<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>K\u00edch ho\u1ea1t h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o (th\u1eddi gian bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i)<\/td>\n<td>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 d\u1ea7u\/kh\u00ed v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 45:1 trong n\u0103m phi\u00ean li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp<\/td>\n<td>Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 6 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>76% th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong 15 n\u0103m qua<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>C\u1eeda s\u1ed5 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 chu k\u1ef3 (Q2-Q3)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u00e1y chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 ph\u1ee5 trong v\u00f2ng 60 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>V\u1ecb tr\u00ed d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u1edbi nh\u1eadp quy m\u00f4 trong 30 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>83% th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong 15 n\u0103m qua (m\u1eabu h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Pocket Option c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt n\u00e2ng cao v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u00f9y ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00e1c c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i li\u00ean t\u1ee5c theo d\u00f5i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">S\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu k\u1ef3, \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cung-c\u1ea7u, to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t khung to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi &#8220;li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 t\u0103ng?&#8221; Tr\u1ecdng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc cho th\u1ea5y x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 68% c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 37% trong 6-12 th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi, v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c r\u1ee7i ro-ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i cho c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eadp trong c\u00e1c c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh trong qu\u00fd 2.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n    <div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article\">\n        <a href=\"\/en\/quick-start\/\" class=\"po-line-banner po-article-page__line-banner\">\n            <svg class=\"svg-image po-line-banner__logo\" fill=\"currentColor\" width=\"auto\" height=\"auto\"\n                 aria-hidden=\"true\">\n                <use href=\"#svg-img-logo-white\"><\/use>\n            <\/svg>\n            <span class=\"po-line-banner__btn\"><\/span>\n        <\/a>\n    <\/div>\n    \n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<h2 class=\"po-article-page__title\">K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn: Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc cho S\u1ef1 T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd cho s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean trong c\u00e1c qu\u00fd t\u1edbi. S\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u khung \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp \u2013 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu k\u1ef3, \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cung-c\u1ea7u, th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea l\u01b0u tr\u1eef, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u2013 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u1ef1 tin cao \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed thay v\u00ec suy \u0111o\u00e1n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm\">\n<p class=\"po-article-page__text\">C\u00e1c ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng cho gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean bao g\u1ed3m:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text\">\n<ol class=\"po-article-page-list\">\n<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 chu k\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 83%, v\u1edbi v\u1ecb tr\u00ed hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n co l\u1ea1i mu\u1ed9n c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh (n\u0103m 4.2 c\u1ee7a 5.7)<\/li>\n<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">M\u1ee9c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u1edf m\u1ee9c -1.42 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng, m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 78% th\u1eddi gian<\/li>\n<li class=\"po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1\">T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o cho th\u1ea5y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u1edf ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m th\u1ee9 87 c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed so v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u \u1edf m\u1ee9c 42:1, m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 76% c\u1ee7a me<br \/>\n"},"faq":[{"question":"C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0 g\u00ec?","answer":"B\u1ed1n ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc li\u00ean t\u1ee5c th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i cho bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn. \u0110i\u1ec3m z \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch l\u01b0u tr\u1eef \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a m\u1ee9c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng 78% khi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 \u00b11.5 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u1edf m\u1ee9c -1.42, ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y n\u1eb1m trong ph\u1ea1m vi t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u-kh\u00ed cung c\u1ea5p t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady, v\u1edbi 76% tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 40:1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng trong 6-12 th\u00e1ng sau \u0111\u00f3. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 42:1 n\u1eb1m \u1edf ph\u00e2n v\u1ecb th\u1ee9 87 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p X-13ARIMA-SEATS x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 84%, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1y m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 th\u00e1ng 4-th\u00e1ng 5 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec9nh th\u00e1ng 10-th\u00e1ng 11. Ch\u00fang ta hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 th\u00e1ng 4-th\u00e1ng 5 \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 co gi\u00e3n cung (\u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1) ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u01b0\u1edbi 0.4 b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn 72% th\u1eddi gian khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t g\u1eb7p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n trong vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nhanh ch\u00f3ng. \u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n trung h\u1ea1n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 0.37 cho th\u1ea5y ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng cung b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. Khi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p--nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i--x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 68% d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u00e2n t\u00edch l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 tr\u00f9ng h\u1ee3p t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1997."},{"question":"L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a ri\u00eang m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"\u0110\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, h\u00e3y l\u00e0m theo khung b\u1ea3y b\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng b\u1edfi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p. \u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, thu th\u1eadp \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 10 n\u0103m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n bao g\u1ed3m m\u1ee9c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n (t\u1eeb EIA), t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng, s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u nhu c\u1ea7u, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft (ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed9 s\u01b0\u1edfi\/l\u00e0m m\u00e1t) v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a li\u00ean quan. Ti\u1ebfp theo, th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c g\u00f3i th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea nh\u01b0 R (g\u00f3i forecast) ho\u1eb7c Python (th\u01b0 vi\u1ec7n statsmodels) \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e1ch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, m\u00f9a v\u1ee5, chu k\u1ef3 v\u00e0 d\u01b0 th\u1eeba. Th\u1ee9 ba, t\u00ednh to\u00e1n h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa m\u1ed7i y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai qua c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 th\u1eddi gian kh\u00e1c nhau (1 th\u00e1ng, 3 th\u00e1ng, 6 th\u00e1ng) \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0o d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1. Th\u1ee9 t\u01b0, ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a bi\u1ebfn v\u1edbi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u00f3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cao nh\u1ea5t, th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m c\u00e1c c\u1ea5u h\u00ecnh kh\u00e1c nhau \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00f3a R-squared \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh trong khi gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u \u0111a c\u1ed9ng tuy\u1ebfn b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 ph\u00f3ng \u0111\u1ea1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai (VIF). Th\u1ee9 n\u0103m, tri\u1ec3n khai m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng GARCH \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ednh kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u1ea5t, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao. Th\u1ee9 s\u00e1u, n\u00e2ng cao m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt h\u1ecdc m\u00e1y nh\u01b0 r\u1eebng ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean ho\u1eb7c t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 d\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 phi tuy\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ki\u1ec3m tra ngo\u00e0i m\u1eabu tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 bao g\u1ed3m \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng, l\u1ed7i tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 RMSE. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng 65-70% trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n 3-6 th\u00e1ng. Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p quy\u1ec1n truy c\u1eadp v\u00e0o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng cho m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng l\u1eadp tr\u00ecnh n\u00e2ng cao."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0o hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi gian giao d\u1ecbch kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"Ba k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu k\u1ef3 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho th\u1ea5y hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi giao d\u1ecbch kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 70%. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u1ed5 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i Fourier Nhanh (FFT) ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 chi ph\u1ed1i trong d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea l\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 12 th\u00e1ng (p=0.001), chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh 5.7 n\u0103m (p=0.008), v\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 ph\u1ee5 2.3 n\u0103m (p=0.023). \u00c1p d\u1ee5ng FFT cho d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean 10 n\u0103m s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng scipy.fftpack c\u1ee7a Python ho\u1eb7c h\u00e0m spec.pgram c\u1ee7a R \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y. T\u00ednh to\u00e1n s\u1ed1 m\u0169 Hurst \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ef1 b\u1ec1n b\u1ec9 c\u1ee7a xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 0.67 cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 b\u1ec1n b\u1ec9 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i; c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb tr\u00ean 0.5 g\u1ee3i \u00fd c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng trong khi c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi 0.5 ch\u1ec9 ra \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u0111a entropy (MESA) v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i h\u01a1n FFT ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m xoay chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3m r\u00f2 r\u1ec9 ph\u1ed5, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00e1y m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 th\u00e1ng 4-5 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c l\u1ecbch s\u1eed 84%. C\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao nh\u1ea5t x\u1ea3y ra t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 chu k\u1ef3 n\u01a1i nhi\u1ec1u chu k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi - m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111ang x\u1ea3y ra hi\u1ec7n nay khi chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh (n\u0103m 4.2 c\u1ee7a 5.7), chu k\u1ef3 ph\u1ee5 (n\u0103m 0.6 c\u1ee7a 2.3), v\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 (th\u00e1ng 4 c\u1ee7a 12) c\u00f9ng h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ec3 g\u1ee3i \u00fd s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 s\u1eafp t\u1edbi. C\u00e1c h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn trong 6 tr\u00ean 7 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed (\u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 86%) v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 87% trong 18 th\u00e1ng."},{"question":"M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o gi\u00fap d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?","answer":"C\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a cung c\u1ea5p t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd cho xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean th\u00f4ng qua b\u1ed1n m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u-kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady nh\u1ea5t, v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea cho th\u1ea5y khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 40:1 (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 42:1), gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean sau \u0111\u00f3 t\u0103ng so v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u trong 76% tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p trong 6 th\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfp theo v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 28%. T\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft l\u00e0 6:1, minh h\u1ecda s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed9 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u1edf m\u1ee9c 87% c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t than \u0111\u00e1 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng thay th\u1ebf nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y \u0111i\u1ec7n--khi kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t giao d\u1ecbch d\u01b0\u1edbi 1.5\u00d7 gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng than \u0111\u00e1 (t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 1.3), vi\u1ec7c chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p sang kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c, t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn tr\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 trong 68% tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. T\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch \u0111i\u1ec7n (\u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec7n b\u1eb1ng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t) cho th\u1ea5y \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u, v\u1edbi ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch \u00e2m d\u01b0\u1edbi -$5\/MWh t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c h\u1ee3p l\u00fd h\u00f3a cung c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i gi\u00e1 sau \u0111\u00f3 trong 72% tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p quan s\u00e1t t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2000. Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean-propane \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 cho s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhu c\u1ea7u s\u01b0\u1edfi \u1ea5m d\u00e2n d\u1ee5ng, v\u1edbi ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch thu h\u1eb9p li\u00ean t\u1ee5c d\u1eabn tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 64%. Nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a n\u00e0y c\u00f3 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m thay th\u1ebf kinh t\u1ebf n\u01a1i c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf thay \u0111\u1ed5i, t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i cung\/c\u1ea7u c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0o t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai?","answer":"B\u1ed1n ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn cung c\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh suy lu\u1eadn Bayes t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed trong c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n khi c\u00f3 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u1edbi; hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang cho th\u1ea5y x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 68% t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a m\u1ee9c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef, v\u1ecb tr\u00ed chu k\u1ef3 v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ch\u00e9o h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a. M\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng Brownian H\u00ecnh h\u1ecdc v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh t\u1eeb c\u00e1c m\u1eabu bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00ean 10.000 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1, ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro-ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 36% \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 (>30%) so v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 22% gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 Markov x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t (hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang ch\u1ec9 ra s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1eeb contango sang backwardation) v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ma tr\u1eadn x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho t\u1eebng tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i cho th\u1ea5y 74% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 trong v\u00f2ng ba th\u00e1ng sau c\u00e1c chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u01b0 v\u1eady d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean 25 n\u0103m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. T\u00ednh to\u00e1n Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb R\u1ee7i ro C\u00f3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 95% cho th\u1ea5y l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u1eeb c\u00e1c v\u1ecb th\u1ebf d\u00e0i hi\u1ec7n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro gi\u1ea3m v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 2.3:1, \u0111\u1eb7t \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n v\u1ecb th\u1ee9 82 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp r\u1ee7i ro-ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 v\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng tin c\u1eady. S\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc tr\u00ean c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 (gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng +22% trong 12 th\u00e1ng) v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro gi\u1ea3m t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u1eabu l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c phi\u00ean b\u1ea3n \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n h\u00f3a c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c khung th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y, cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t th\u00f4ng tin h\u01a1n."}],"faq_source":{"label":"FAQ","type":"repeater","formatted_value":[{"question":"C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0 g\u00ec?","answer":"B\u1ed1n ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc li\u00ean t\u1ee5c th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i cho bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn. \u0110i\u1ec3m z \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch l\u01b0u tr\u1eef \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a m\u1ee9c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng 78% khi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 \u00b11.5 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u1edf m\u1ee9c -1.42, ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y n\u1eb1m trong ph\u1ea1m vi t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u-kh\u00ed cung c\u1ea5p t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady, v\u1edbi 76% tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 40:1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng trong 6-12 th\u00e1ng sau \u0111\u00f3. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 42:1 n\u1eb1m \u1edf ph\u00e2n v\u1ecb th\u1ee9 87 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p X-13ARIMA-SEATS x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 84%, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1y m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 th\u00e1ng 4-th\u00e1ng 5 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec9nh th\u00e1ng 10-th\u00e1ng 11. Ch\u00fang ta hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 th\u00e1ng 4-th\u00e1ng 5 \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 co gi\u00e3n cung (\u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1) ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u01b0\u1edbi 0.4 b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn 72% th\u1eddi gian khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t g\u1eb7p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n trong vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nhanh ch\u00f3ng. \u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n trung h\u1ea1n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 0.37 cho th\u1ea5y ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng cung b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. Khi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p--nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i--x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 68% d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u00e2n t\u00edch l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 tr\u00f9ng h\u1ee3p t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1997."},{"question":"L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a ri\u00eang m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"\u0110\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, h\u00e3y l\u00e0m theo khung b\u1ea3y b\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng b\u1edfi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p. \u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, thu th\u1eadp \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 10 n\u0103m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n bao g\u1ed3m m\u1ee9c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n (t\u1eeb EIA), t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng, s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u nhu c\u1ea7u, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft (ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed9 s\u01b0\u1edfi\/l\u00e0m m\u00e1t) v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a li\u00ean quan. Ti\u1ebfp theo, th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c g\u00f3i th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea nh\u01b0 R (g\u00f3i forecast) ho\u1eb7c Python (th\u01b0 vi\u1ec7n statsmodels) \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e1ch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, m\u00f9a v\u1ee5, chu k\u1ef3 v\u00e0 d\u01b0 th\u1eeba. Th\u1ee9 ba, t\u00ednh to\u00e1n h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa m\u1ed7i y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai qua c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 th\u1eddi gian kh\u00e1c nhau (1 th\u00e1ng, 3 th\u00e1ng, 6 th\u00e1ng) \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0o d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1. Th\u1ee9 t\u01b0, ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a bi\u1ebfn v\u1edbi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u00f3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cao nh\u1ea5t, th\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m c\u00e1c c\u1ea5u h\u00ecnh kh\u00e1c nhau \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00f3a R-squared \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh trong khi gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u \u0111a c\u1ed9ng tuy\u1ebfn b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 ph\u00f3ng \u0111\u1ea1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai (VIF). Th\u1ee9 n\u0103m, tri\u1ec3n khai m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng GARCH \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ednh kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u1ea5t, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao. Th\u1ee9 s\u00e1u, n\u00e2ng cao m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt h\u1ecdc m\u00e1y nh\u01b0 r\u1eebng ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean ho\u1eb7c t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 d\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 phi tuy\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ki\u1ec3m tra ngo\u00e0i m\u1eabu tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 bao g\u1ed3m \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng, l\u1ed7i tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 RMSE. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng 65-70% trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n 3-6 th\u00e1ng. Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p quy\u1ec1n truy c\u1eadp v\u00e0o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng cho m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng l\u1eadp tr\u00ecnh n\u00e2ng cao."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0o hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi gian giao d\u1ecbch kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"Ba k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu k\u1ef3 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho th\u1ea5y hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi giao d\u1ecbch kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 70%. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u1ed5 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i Fourier Nhanh (FFT) ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 chi ph\u1ed1i trong d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea l\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 12 th\u00e1ng (p=0.001), chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh 5.7 n\u0103m (p=0.008), v\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 ph\u1ee5 2.3 n\u0103m (p=0.023). \u00c1p d\u1ee5ng FFT cho d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean 10 n\u0103m s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng scipy.fftpack c\u1ee7a Python ho\u1eb7c h\u00e0m spec.pgram c\u1ee7a R \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y. T\u00ednh to\u00e1n s\u1ed1 m\u0169 Hurst \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ef1 b\u1ec1n b\u1ec9 c\u1ee7a xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 0.67 cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 b\u1ec1n b\u1ec9 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i; c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb tr\u00ean 0.5 g\u1ee3i \u00fd c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng trong khi c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi 0.5 ch\u1ec9 ra \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u0111a entropy (MESA) v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i h\u01a1n FFT ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m xoay chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3m r\u00f2 r\u1ec9 ph\u1ed5, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00e1y m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 th\u00e1ng 4-5 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c l\u1ecbch s\u1eed 84%. C\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao nh\u1ea5t x\u1ea3y ra t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 chu k\u1ef3 n\u01a1i nhi\u1ec1u chu k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi - m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111ang x\u1ea3y ra hi\u1ec7n nay khi chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh (n\u0103m 4.2 c\u1ee7a 5.7), chu k\u1ef3 ph\u1ee5 (n\u0103m 0.6 c\u1ee7a 2.3), v\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 (th\u00e1ng 4 c\u1ee7a 12) c\u00f9ng h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ec3 g\u1ee3i \u00fd s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 s\u1eafp t\u1edbi. C\u00e1c h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn trong 6 tr\u00ean 7 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed (\u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 86%) v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 87% trong 18 th\u00e1ng."},{"question":"M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00e9o gi\u00fap d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?","answer":"C\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a cung c\u1ea5p t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd cho xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean th\u00f4ng qua b\u1ed1n m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u-kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady nh\u1ea5t, v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea cho th\u1ea5y khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 40:1 (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 42:1), gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean sau \u0111\u00f3 t\u0103ng so v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u trong 76% tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p trong 6 th\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfp theo v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 28%. T\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft l\u00e0 6:1, minh h\u1ecda s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed9 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u1edf m\u1ee9c 87% c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t than \u0111\u00e1 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng thay th\u1ebf nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y \u0111i\u1ec7n--khi kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t giao d\u1ecbch d\u01b0\u1edbi 1.5\u00d7 gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng than \u0111\u00e1 (t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 1.3), vi\u1ec7c chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p sang kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c, t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn tr\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 trong 68% tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. T\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch \u0111i\u1ec7n (\u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec7n b\u1eb1ng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t) cho th\u1ea5y \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u, v\u1edbi ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch \u00e2m d\u01b0\u1edbi -$5\/MWh t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c h\u1ee3p l\u00fd h\u00f3a cung c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i gi\u00e1 sau \u0111\u00f3 trong 72% tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p quan s\u00e1t t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2000. Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean-propane \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 cho s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhu c\u1ea7u s\u01b0\u1edfi \u1ea5m d\u00e2n d\u1ee5ng, v\u1edbi ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch thu h\u1eb9p li\u00ean t\u1ee5c d\u1eabn tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 64%. Nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a n\u00e0y c\u00f3 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m thay th\u1ebf kinh t\u1ebf n\u01a1i c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf thay \u0111\u1ed5i, t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i cung\/c\u1ea7u c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0o t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai?","answer":"B\u1ed1n ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn cung c\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh suy lu\u1eadn Bayes t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed trong c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n khi c\u00f3 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u1edbi; hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang cho th\u1ea5y x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 68% t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a m\u1ee9c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef, v\u1ecb tr\u00ed chu k\u1ef3 v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ch\u00e9o h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a. M\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng Brownian H\u00ecnh h\u1ecdc v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh t\u1eeb c\u00e1c m\u1eabu bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00ean 10.000 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1, ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro-ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 36% \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 (>30%) so v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 22% gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 Markov x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t (hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang ch\u1ec9 ra s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1eeb contango sang backwardation) v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ma tr\u1eadn x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho t\u1eebng tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i cho th\u1ea5y 74% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 trong v\u00f2ng ba th\u00e1ng sau c\u00e1c chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u01b0 v\u1eady d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean 25 n\u0103m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. T\u00ednh to\u00e1n Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb R\u1ee7i ro C\u00f3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 95% cho th\u1ea5y l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u1eeb c\u00e1c v\u1ecb th\u1ebf d\u00e0i hi\u1ec7n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro gi\u1ea3m v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 2.3:1, \u0111\u1eb7t \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n v\u1ecb th\u1ee9 82 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp r\u1ee7i ro-ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 v\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng tin c\u1eady. S\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc tr\u00ean c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 (gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng +22% trong 12 th\u00e1ng) v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro gi\u1ea3m t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u1eabu l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c phi\u00ean b\u1ea3n \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n h\u00f3a c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c khung th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y, cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t th\u00f4ng tin h\u01a1n."}]}},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean s\u1ebd t\u0103ng: 7 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 68%<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/vt\/knowledge-base\/markets\/will-natural-gas-prices-go-up\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" 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