{"id":318779,"date":"2025-07-21T07:29:08","date_gmt":"2025-07-21T07:29:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/news-events\/data\/why-is-natural-gas-going-up-2\/"},"modified":"2025-07-21T07:29:08","modified_gmt":"2025-07-21T07:29:08","slug":"why-is-natural-gas-going-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/vt\/knowledge-base\/learning\/why-is-natural-gas-going-up\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u1ea1i sao kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng: Khung ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"root\"><div id=\"wrap-img-root\"><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":214410,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[46,29,40],"class_list":["post-318779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-learning","tag-how","tag-intraday","tag-signal"],"acf":{"h1":"Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc Pocket Option: T\u1ea1i Sao Kh\u00ed T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean \u0110ang T\u0103ng","h1_source":{"label":"H1","type":"text","formatted_value":"Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc Pocket Option: T\u1ea1i Sao Kh\u00ed T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean \u0110ang T\u0103ng"},"description":"Hi\u1ec3u l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng th\u00f4ng qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin chi ti\u1ebft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng. Ngu\u1ed3n t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a Pocket Option d\u00e0nh cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ng\u00e0y nay.","description_source":{"label":"Description","type":"textarea","formatted_value":"Hi\u1ec3u l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng th\u00f4ng qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin chi ti\u1ebft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng. Ngu\u1ed3n t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a Pocket Option d\u00e0nh cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ng\u00e0y nay."},"intro":"Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n n\u00e0y kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean th\u00f4ng qua m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 khung th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea. T\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1ch di\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, tri\u1ec3n khai ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c trong m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng.","intro_source":{"label":"Intro","type":"text","formatted_value":"Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n n\u00e0y kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean th\u00f4ng qua m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 khung th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea. T\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1ch di\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, tri\u1ec3n khai ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c trong m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng."},"body_html":"<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Nh\u1eefng Nguy\u00ean T\u1eafc C\u01a1 B\u1ea3n \u0110\u1eb1ng Sau S\u1ef1 T\u0103ng Gi\u00e1 Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi xem x\u00e9t l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean ph\u1ea3i hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1ec1 cung, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng theo m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p, n\u01a1i m\u00e0 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1eb3ng th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc gi\u1eefa kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cho th\u1ea5y gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean theo c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh logarit trong c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c cung, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb -0.25 \u0111\u1ebfn -0.8 t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>S\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung-c\u1ea7u ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n nay. Khi ch\u00fang ta ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, ch\u00fang ta quan s\u00e1t th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng gi\u1ea3m 1% ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 2.3-3.1% trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch t\u1ea1i Pocket Option t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o v\u00e0 ra ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng cho c\u00e1c v\u1ecb th\u1ebf t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Thay \u0110\u1ed5i Cung<\/th><th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 D\u1ef1 Ki\u1ebfn<\/th><th>Th\u1eddi Gian Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee8ng Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>-1% S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/td><td>+2.3-3.1% Gi\u00e1<\/td><td>1-3 Ng\u00e0y Giao D\u1ecbch<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>-5% S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/td><td>+11.5-15.5% Gi\u00e1<\/td><td>3-7 Ng\u00e0y Giao D\u1ecbch<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>-10% S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/td><td>+23-31% Gi\u00e1<\/td><td>5-14 Ng\u00e0y Giao D\u1ecbch<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>+1% S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/td><td>-1.8-2.5% Gi\u00e1<\/td><td>2-5 Ng\u00e0y Giao D\u1ecbch<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Khung \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0110\u1ec3 Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch S\u1ef1 Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a bi\u1ebfn k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn nh\u01b0 kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, m\u1ee9c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4. S\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00edch h\u1ee3p gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t khung d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ec3u di\u1ec5n qua ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh sau:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>P = \u03b1 + \u03b2\u2081(S) + \u03b2\u2082(D) + \u03b2\u2083(I) + \u03b2\u2084(W) + \u03b5<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Trong \u0111\u00f3 P \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho gi\u00e1, S \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 cung, D \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ea7u, I \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho, W \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft, v\u00e0 \u03b5 l\u00e0 nhi\u1ec5u ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. C\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 beta x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 l\u00ean s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng khi m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho gi\u1ea3m d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m n\u0103m 10%, gi\u00e1 th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 15-22%, gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn kh\u00e1c kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1<\/th><th>H\u1ec7 S\u1ed1 (\u03b2)<\/th><th>\u00dd Ngh\u0129a Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea<\/th><th>\u0110\u1ed9 Nh\u1ea1y Gi\u00e1<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>M\u1ee9c L\u01b0u Tr\u1eef<\/td><td>-0.68<\/td><td>Cao (p &lt; 0.001)<\/td><td>Gi\u1ea3m 1% = T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 0.68%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/td><td>-0.75<\/td><td>Cao (p &lt; 0.001)<\/td><td>Gi\u1ea3m 1% = T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 0.75%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ng\u00e0y \u0110\u1ed9 Nhi\u1ec7t<\/td><td>0.41<\/td><td>Trung B\u00ecnh (p &lt; 0.01)<\/td><td>T\u0103ng 1% = T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 0.41%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>C\u1ea7u C\u00f4ng Nghi\u1ec7p<\/td><td>0.36<\/td><td>Trung B\u00ecnh (p &lt; 0.01)<\/td><td>T\u0103ng 1% = T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 0.36%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kh\u1ed1i L\u01b0\u1ee3ng Xu\u1ea5t Kh\u1ea9u LNG<\/td><td>0.29<\/td><td>Trung B\u00ecnh (p &lt; 0.05)<\/td><td>T\u0103ng 1% = T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 0.29%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h3 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch R-Squared c\u1ee7a C\u00e1c Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 Quy\u1ebft \u0110\u1ecbnh Gi\u00e1<\/h3><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh (R\u00b2) cho c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n th\u01b0\u1eddng dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 0.72 \u0111\u1ebfn 0.86, cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng kho\u1ea3ng 72-86% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch th\u00f4ng qua m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00ean c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng nh\u01b0 Pocket Option, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y, c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Ph\u1ea7n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c (14-28%) \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, c\u00fa s\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n gi\u00e1 cung c\u1ea5p th\u00eam th\u00f4ng tin chi ti\u1ebft v\u1ec1 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c PE = (\u0394Q\/Q)\/(\u0394P\/P) cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n c\u1ea7u kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb -0.28 xu\u1ed1ng -0.19 trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u00edt nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m h\u01a1n v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1. S\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng co gi\u00e3n n\u00e0y l\u00e0m t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong c\u00e1c gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n cung c\u1ea5p.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Ph\u00e2n R\u00e3 Theo M\u00f9a v\u00e0 Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n r\u00e3 chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd khi xem x\u00e9t t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 v\u00e0 d\u01b0 th\u1eeba, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f4 l\u1eadp c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a h\u00e0nh vi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 theo m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh sin v\u1edbi c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1eeb 15-40% t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng khu v\u1ef1c.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'><ul class='po-article-page-list'><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n Xu H\u01b0\u1edbng (T): Ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc cung\/c\u1ea7u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n M\u00f9a V\u1ee5 (S): N\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh chu k\u1ef3 (th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 12 th\u00e1ng)<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n D\u01b0 Th\u1eeba (R): \u0110\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Bi\u1ec3u di\u1ec5n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc P = T \u00d7 S \u00d7 R cho ph\u00e9p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u00f4ng qua d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n. Khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed th\u00f4ng qua khung n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t r\u00fat h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd ho\u1eb7c s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n trong th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n d\u01b0 th\u1eeba tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o s\u1edbm cho s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Khung Th\u1eddi Gian<\/th><th>\u0110\u00f3ng G\u00f3p Xu H\u01b0\u1edbng<\/th><th>\u0110\u00f3ng G\u00f3p M\u00f9a V\u1ee5<\/th><th>\u0110\u00f3ng G\u00f3p D\u01b0 Th\u1eeba<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y<\/td><td>5-10%<\/td><td>15-25%<\/td><td>65-80%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 H\u00e0ng Tu\u1ea7n<\/td><td>15-25%<\/td><td>30-45%<\/td><td>30-55%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 H\u00e0ng Th\u00e1ng<\/td><td>30-40%<\/td><td>45-60%<\/td><td>10-25%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 H\u00e0ng Qu\u00fd<\/td><td>50-65%<\/td><td>30-45%<\/td><td>5-10%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t chi\u1ec1u kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng. S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed (HV) v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd (IV) b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. Khi IV v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 HV h\u01a1n 15%, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, t\u1ea1o ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i cho c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn tr\u00ean c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng nh\u01b0 Pocket Option.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>H\u1ea1n Ch\u1ebf S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 H\u1ec7 S\u1ed1 \u0110\u00e0n H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u00eda cung c\u1ea5p ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 quan tr\u1ecdng gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ec3u di\u1ec5n qua ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i cung: Es = (\u0394Q\/Q)\/(\u0394P\/P). D\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i cung c\u1ea5p kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 0.12 \u0111\u1ebfn 0.35 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 0.65 \u0111\u1ebfn 1.20 trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 h\u01a1n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi xem x\u00e9t l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin quan tr\u1ecdng. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00e0 PC = (S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t Ti\u1ec1m N\u0103ng - S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t Th\u1ef1c T\u1ebf)\/S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t Ti\u1ec1m N\u0103ng. Khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 0.10 (10% h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf), th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ea3i qua s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 t\u1eeb 25-35% trong c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 giao d\u1ecbch ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>M\u1ee9c \u0110\u1ed9 H\u1ea1n Ch\u1ebf S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/th><th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 Ng\u1eafn H\u1ea1n (1-30 ng\u00e0y)<\/th><th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 Trung H\u1ea1n (30-90 ng\u00e0y)<\/th><th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 D\u00e0i H\u1ea1n (90+ ng\u00e0y)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>5% H\u1ea1n Ch\u1ebf<\/td><td>+10-15%<\/td><td>+5-10%<\/td><td>+2-5%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10% H\u1ea1n Ch\u1ebf<\/td><td>+25-35%<\/td><td>+12-20%<\/td><td>+5-10%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>15% H\u1ea1n Ch\u1ebf<\/td><td>+40-55%<\/td><td>+20-30%<\/td><td>+10-15%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>20%+ H\u1ea1n Ch\u1ebf<\/td><td>+60-100%<\/td><td>+30-50%<\/td><td>+15-25%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h3 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch H\u00e0m Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee8ng C\u1ee7a Nh\u00e0 S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/h3><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>H\u00e0m ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t (PRF) m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng cung khi gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh PRF = \u03b1 \u00d7 (1 - e^(-\u03b2t)) \u00d7 (P\/P\u2080)^\u03b3 m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y, trong \u0111\u00f3 \u03b1 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ed1i \u0111a, \u03b2 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng, t \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho th\u1eddi gian, P\/P\u2080 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 so v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 s\u1edf, v\u00e0 \u03b3 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c m\u1eabu PRF l\u1ecbch s\u1eed ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 4-6 th\u00e1ng l\u00ean 7-10 th\u00e1ng trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, k\u00e9o d\u00e0i th\u1eddi gian t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 khi c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng. Nh\u1eefng chu k\u1ef3 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng d\u00e0i h\u01a1n n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i giao d\u1ecbch b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng nh\u01b0 Pocket Option.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'><ul class='po-article-page-list'><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Giai \u0110o\u1ea1n \u0110\u1ed9 Tr\u1ec5 Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee8ng: 2-3 th\u00e1ng cho gi\u1ea5y ph\u00e9p khoan v\u00e0 l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Giai \u0110o\u1ea1n T\u0103ng S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t: 3-5 th\u00e1ng cho ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh gi\u1ebfng v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ban \u0111\u1ea7u<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Giai \u0110o\u1ea1n Ph\u00e2n Ph\u1ed1i: 1-2 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 cung c\u1ea5p m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m c\u1ea7u<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch T\u01b0\u01a1ng Quan v\u00e0 Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 Ch\u00e9o Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan ch\u00e9o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan (r) gi\u1eefa kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng li\u00ean quan cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c r = cov(X,Y)\/(\u03c3\u2093\u03c3\u1d67) \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y, trong \u0111\u00f3 cov(X,Y) \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho hi\u1ec7p ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai v\u00e0 \u03c3\u2093 v\u00e0 \u03c3\u1d67 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>C\u1eb7p Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/th><th>H\u1ec7 S\u1ed1 T\u01b0\u01a1ng Quan (r)<\/th><th>M\u1ed1i Quan H\u1ec7 D\u1eabn D\u1eaft\/Tr\u1ec5<\/th><th>H\u00e0m \u00dd Giao D\u1ecbch<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean \/ D\u1ea7u Th\u00f4<\/td><td>0.38<\/td><td>D\u1ea7u d\u1eabn tr\u01b0\u1edbc 2-3 tu\u1ea7n<\/td><td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n trung b\u00ecnh<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean \/ \u0110i\u1ec7n<\/td><td>0.76<\/td><td>Kh\u00ed d\u1eabn tr\u01b0\u1edbc 1-2 tu\u1ea7n<\/td><td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean \/ Than \u0110\u00e1<\/td><td>0.61<\/td><td>Than d\u1eabn tr\u01b0\u1edbc 3-4 tu\u1ea7n<\/td><td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean \/ Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 Th\u1eddi Ti\u1ebft<\/td><td>0.83<\/td><td>Th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft d\u1eabn tr\u01b0\u1edbc 1-2 tu\u1ea7n<\/td><td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1ea5t m\u1ea1nh<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh vector autoregression (VAR) n\u00e2ng cao s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1eefa nhi\u1ec1u chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh Yt = A1Yt-1 + A2Yt-2 + ... + ApYt-p + \u03b5t \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho khung n\u00e0y, trong \u0111\u00f3 Y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t vector c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn v\u00e0 A \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c ma tr\u1eadn h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh VAR th\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch 65-75% s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>T\u1ed1i \u01afu H\u00f3a Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 S\u1eed D\u1ee5ng C\u00e1c M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Sharpe (SR = (Rp - Rf)\/\u03c3p) cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t khung \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, trong \u0111\u00f3 Rp \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn danh m\u1ee5c, Rf \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng r\u1ee7i ro, v\u00e0 \u03c3p \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n danh m\u1ee5c.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00ean Pocket Option c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea khai th\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng kh\u00e1c nhau. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ecbch CS = Pm - Pn (trong \u0111\u00f3 Pm v\u00e0 Pn \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u00e1ng kh\u00e1c nhau) x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i khi ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ec7ch kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Lo\u1ea1i Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/th><th>N\u1ec1n T\u1ea3ng To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th><th>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Sharpe L\u1ecbch S\u1eed<\/th><th>\u0110\u1ed9 Ph\u1ee9c T\u1ea1p Th\u1ef1c Hi\u1ec7n<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Giao D\u1ecbch \u0110\u1ed9ng L\u1ef1c<\/td><td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Thay \u0110\u1ed5i (ROC) = (P\u2081-P\u2080)\/P\u2080<\/td><td>0.75-1.10<\/td><td>Th\u1ea5p<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>H\u1ed3i Quy Trung B\u00ecnh<\/td><td>Z-Score = (P-\u03bc)\/\u03c3<\/td><td>0.90-1.25<\/td><td>Trung B\u00ecnh<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ch\u00eanh L\u1ec7ch L\u1ecbch<\/td><td>Ch\u00eanh L\u1ec7ch = F\u2081-F\u2082<\/td><td>1.15-1.40<\/td><td>Trung B\u00ecnh<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Giao D\u1ecbch Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/td><td>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb Straddle = Call + Put<\/td><td>1.30-1.65<\/td><td>Cao<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh C\u01a1 B\u1ea3n<\/td><td>H\u1ed3i Quy \u0110a Bi\u1ebfn<\/td><td>1.45-1.80<\/td><td>R\u1ea5t Cao<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 danh m\u1ee5c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u khi giao d\u1ecbch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c suy ra b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng khung l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft danh m\u1ee5c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c cho ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai danh m\u1ee5c \u03c3\u00b2p = \u03a3(wi\u03c3i)\u00b2 + \u03a3\u03a3wiwj\u03c3i\u03c3j\u03c1ij cung c\u1ea5p n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, trong \u0111\u00f3 wi \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n i, \u03c3i \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n c\u1ee7a t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n i, v\u00e0 \u03c1ij \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n i v\u00e0 j.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'><ul class='po-article-page-list'><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Danh M\u1ee5c R\u1ee7i Ro Th\u1ea5p: Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 5-10% v\u00e0o h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean ho\u1eb7c ETFs<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Danh M\u1ee5c R\u1ee7i Ro Trung B\u00ecnh: Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 10-15% v\u1edbi 70% v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng, 30% ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Danh M\u1ee5c R\u1ee7i Ro Cao: Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 15-25% v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Khung Thu Th\u1eadp D\u1eef Li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 Quy Tr\u00ecnh Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>T\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u1ed9t khung thu th\u1eadp v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac. Quy tr\u00ecnh b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u b\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh, thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n d\u1eef li\u1ec7u, th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c quy tr\u00ecnh thu th\u1eadp v\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Danh M\u1ee5c D\u1eef Li\u1ec7u<\/th><th>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 Ch\u00ednh<\/th><th>T\u1ea7n Su\u1ea5t Thu Th\u1eadp<\/th><th>\u1ee8ng D\u1ee5ng Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D\u1eef Li\u1ec7u S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/td><td>S\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y\/th\u00e1ng, s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u00e0n khoan, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh<\/td><td>H\u00e0ng Tu\u1ea7n<\/td><td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D\u1eef Li\u1ec7u L\u01b0u Tr\u1eef<\/td><td>M\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 b\u01a1m\/r\u00fat<\/td><td>H\u00e0ng Tu\u1ea7n<\/td><td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch, \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh m\u00f9a v\u1ee5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 C\u1ea7u<\/td><td>S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec7n, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 d\u00e2n c\u01b0<\/td><td>H\u00e0ng Tu\u1ea7n\/Th\u00e1ng<\/td><td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan, t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D\u1eef Li\u1ec7u Th\u1eddi Ti\u1ebft<\/td><td>HDDs, CDDs, l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a, b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9<\/td><td>H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y<\/td><td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy, nh\u1eadn d\u1ea1ng m\u1eabu<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D\u1eef Li\u1ec7u Gi\u00e1<\/td><td>Gi\u00e1 giao ngay, \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn<\/td><td>H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y<\/td><td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Quy tr\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tu\u00e2n theo m\u1ed9t khung n\u0103m b\u01b0\u1edbc: chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u, ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7, ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan, kh\u1edbp m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh v\u00e0 ki\u1ec3m tra x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn. Chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a z-score (Z = (X-\u03bc)\/\u03c3) \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 so s\u00e1nh tr\u00ean c\u00e1c thang \u0111o kh\u00e1c nhau. Ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p Z-score s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi MAD (\u0110\u1ed9 L\u1ec7ch Tuy\u1ec7t \u0110\u1ed1i Trung V\u1ecb) \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m l\u1ec7ch ph\u00e2n t\u00edch.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch Pocket Option s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u. Khung h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c thi\u00ean ki\u1ebfn c\u1ea3m x\u00fac trong c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh giao d\u1ecbch v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n c\u1ee7a k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h3 class='po-article-page__title'>Ki\u1ec3m Tra \u00dd Ngh\u0129a Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea<\/h3><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Ki\u1ec3m tra gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft cung c\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t ph\u00e2n t\u00edch khi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t-statistic t = (x\u0304 - \u03bc)\/(s\/\u221an) \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng li\u1ec7u c\u00e1c t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 quan s\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea hay c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 nhi\u1ec5u ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng p-value 0.05 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u00fd ngh\u0129a.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'><ul class='po-article-page-list'><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Gi\u1ea3 Thuy\u1ebft Kh\u00f4ng (H\u2080): Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan s\u00e1t kh\u00f4ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Gi\u1ea3 Thuy\u1ebft Thay Th\u1ebf (H\u2081): Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan s\u00e1t \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>M\u1ee9c \u00dd Ngh\u0129a: \u03b1 = 0.05 (kho\u1ea3ng tin c\u1eady 95%)<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y v\u00e0o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u00e1o c\u00e1o l\u01b0u tr\u1eef cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho l\u1ec7ch kh\u1ecfi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng h\u01a1n 7 t\u1ef7 feet kh\u1ed1i (Bcf) t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea (p &lt; 0.01), trong khi c\u00e1c l\u1ec7ch nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho nhi\u1ec5u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>K\u1ebft Lu\u1eadn: Khung To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc cho Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Gi\u00e1 Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 t\u00edch h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t khung to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n. C\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf cung, c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ea7u, m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 cung c\u1ea5p kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a \u0111\u00fang c\u00e1ch.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng. S\u1ef1 t\u00edch h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t khung ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c thi\u00ean ki\u1ebfn c\u1ea3m x\u00fac v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n c\u1ee7a k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng nh\u01b0 Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1c nhau. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong khi qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>S\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 tinh ch\u1ec9nh li\u00ean t\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch khi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t trong c\u00e1c khung ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd trong khi tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u kh\u1ecfi nhi\u1ec5u trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p><\/div>[cta_button text=\"\"]","body_html_source":{"label":"Body HTML","type":"wysiwyg","formatted_value":"<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Nh\u1eefng Nguy\u00ean T\u1eafc C\u01a1 B\u1ea3n \u0110\u1eb1ng Sau S\u1ef1 T\u0103ng Gi\u00e1 Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi xem x\u00e9t l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean ph\u1ea3i hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1ec1 cung, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng theo m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p, n\u01a1i m\u00e0 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1eb3ng th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc gi\u1eefa kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cho th\u1ea5y gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean theo c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh logarit trong c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c cung, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb -0.25 \u0111\u1ebfn -0.8 t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>S\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung-c\u1ea7u ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n nay. Khi ch\u00fang ta ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, ch\u00fang ta quan s\u00e1t th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng gi\u1ea3m 1% ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 2.3-3.1% trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch t\u1ea1i Pocket Option t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o v\u00e0 ra ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng cho c\u00e1c v\u1ecb th\u1ebf t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Thay \u0110\u1ed5i Cung<\/th>\n<th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 D\u1ef1 Ki\u1ebfn<\/th>\n<th>Th\u1eddi Gian Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee8ng Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>-1% S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/td>\n<td>+2.3-3.1% Gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>1-3 Ng\u00e0y Giao D\u1ecbch<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>-5% S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/td>\n<td>+11.5-15.5% Gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>3-7 Ng\u00e0y Giao D\u1ecbch<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>-10% S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/td>\n<td>+23-31% Gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>5-14 Ng\u00e0y Giao D\u1ecbch<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>+1% S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/td>\n<td>-1.8-2.5% Gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>2-5 Ng\u00e0y Giao D\u1ecbch<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Khung \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0110\u1ec3 Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch S\u1ef1 Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a bi\u1ebfn k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn nh\u01b0 kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, m\u1ee9c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4. S\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00edch h\u1ee3p gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t khung d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ec3u di\u1ec5n qua ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh sau:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>P = \u03b1 + \u03b2\u2081(S) + \u03b2\u2082(D) + \u03b2\u2083(I) + \u03b2\u2084(W) + \u03b5<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Trong \u0111\u00f3 P \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho gi\u00e1, S \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 cung, D \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ea7u, I \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho, W \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft, v\u00e0 \u03b5 l\u00e0 nhi\u1ec5u ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. C\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 beta x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 l\u00ean s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng khi m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho gi\u1ea3m d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m n\u0103m 10%, gi\u00e1 th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 15-22%, gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn kh\u00e1c kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1<\/th>\n<th>H\u1ec7 S\u1ed1 (\u03b2)<\/th>\n<th>\u00dd Ngh\u0129a Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u1ed9 Nh\u1ea1y Gi\u00e1<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>M\u1ee9c L\u01b0u Tr\u1eef<\/td>\n<td>-0.68<\/td>\n<td>Cao (p &lt; 0.001)<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u1ea3m 1% = T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 0.68%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/td>\n<td>-0.75<\/td>\n<td>Cao (p &lt; 0.001)<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u1ea3m 1% = T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 0.75%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ng\u00e0y \u0110\u1ed9 Nhi\u1ec7t<\/td>\n<td>0.41<\/td>\n<td>Trung B\u00ecnh (p &lt; 0.01)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng 1% = T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 0.41%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>C\u1ea7u C\u00f4ng Nghi\u1ec7p<\/td>\n<td>0.36<\/td>\n<td>Trung B\u00ecnh (p &lt; 0.01)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng 1% = T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 0.36%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Kh\u1ed1i L\u01b0\u1ee3ng Xu\u1ea5t Kh\u1ea9u LNG<\/td>\n<td>0.29<\/td>\n<td>Trung B\u00ecnh (p &lt; 0.05)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng 1% = T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 0.29%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h3 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch R-Squared c\u1ee7a C\u00e1c Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 Quy\u1ebft \u0110\u1ecbnh Gi\u00e1<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh (R\u00b2) cho c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n th\u01b0\u1eddng dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 0.72 \u0111\u1ebfn 0.86, cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng kho\u1ea3ng 72-86% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch th\u00f4ng qua m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00ean c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng nh\u01b0 Pocket Option, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y, c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Ph\u1ea7n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c (14-28%) \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, c\u00fa s\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n gi\u00e1 cung c\u1ea5p th\u00eam th\u00f4ng tin chi ti\u1ebft v\u1ec1 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c PE = (\u0394Q\/Q)\/(\u0394P\/P) cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n c\u1ea7u kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb -0.28 xu\u1ed1ng -0.19 trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u00edt nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m h\u01a1n v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1. S\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng co gi\u00e3n n\u00e0y l\u00e0m t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong c\u00e1c gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n cung c\u1ea5p.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Ph\u00e2n R\u00e3 Theo M\u00f9a v\u00e0 Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n r\u00e3 chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd khi xem x\u00e9t t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 v\u00e0 d\u01b0 th\u1eeba, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f4 l\u1eadp c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a h\u00e0nh vi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 theo m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh sin v\u1edbi c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1eeb 15-40% t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng khu v\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'>\n<ul class='po-article-page-list'>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n Xu H\u01b0\u1edbng (T): Ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc cung\/c\u1ea7u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n M\u00f9a V\u1ee5 (S): N\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh chu k\u1ef3 (th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 12 th\u00e1ng)<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n D\u01b0 Th\u1eeba (R): \u0110\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Bi\u1ec3u di\u1ec5n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc P = T \u00d7 S \u00d7 R cho ph\u00e9p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u00f4ng qua d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n. Khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed th\u00f4ng qua khung n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t r\u00fat h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd ho\u1eb7c s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n trong th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n d\u01b0 th\u1eeba tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o s\u1edbm cho s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Khung Th\u1eddi Gian<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u00f3ng G\u00f3p Xu H\u01b0\u1edbng<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u00f3ng G\u00f3p M\u00f9a V\u1ee5<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u00f3ng G\u00f3p D\u01b0 Th\u1eeba<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>5-10%<\/td>\n<td>15-25%<\/td>\n<td>65-80%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 H\u00e0ng Tu\u1ea7n<\/td>\n<td>15-25%<\/td>\n<td>30-45%<\/td>\n<td>30-55%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 H\u00e0ng Th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>30-40%<\/td>\n<td>45-60%<\/td>\n<td>10-25%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 H\u00e0ng Qu\u00fd<\/td>\n<td>50-65%<\/td>\n<td>30-45%<\/td>\n<td>5-10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t chi\u1ec1u kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng. S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed (HV) v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd (IV) b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. Khi IV v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 HV h\u01a1n 15%, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, t\u1ea1o ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i cho c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn tr\u00ean c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng nh\u01b0 Pocket Option.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>H\u1ea1n Ch\u1ebf S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 H\u1ec7 S\u1ed1 \u0110\u00e0n H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u00eda cung c\u1ea5p ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 quan tr\u1ecdng gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ec3u di\u1ec5n qua ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i cung: Es = (\u0394Q\/Q)\/(\u0394P\/P). D\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i cung c\u1ea5p kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 0.12 \u0111\u1ebfn 0.35 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 0.65 \u0111\u1ebfn 1.20 trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 h\u01a1n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi xem x\u00e9t l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin quan tr\u1ecdng. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00e0 PC = (S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t Ti\u1ec1m N\u0103ng &#8211; S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t Th\u1ef1c T\u1ebf)\/S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t Ti\u1ec1m N\u0103ng. Khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 0.10 (10% h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf), th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ea3i qua s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 t\u1eeb 25-35% trong c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 giao d\u1ecbch ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>M\u1ee9c \u0110\u1ed9 H\u1ea1n Ch\u1ebf S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/th>\n<th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 Ng\u1eafn H\u1ea1n (1-30 ng\u00e0y)<\/th>\n<th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 Trung H\u1ea1n (30-90 ng\u00e0y)<\/th>\n<th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 D\u00e0i H\u1ea1n (90+ ng\u00e0y)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>5% H\u1ea1n Ch\u1ebf<\/td>\n<td>+10-15%<\/td>\n<td>+5-10%<\/td>\n<td>+2-5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>10% H\u1ea1n Ch\u1ebf<\/td>\n<td>+25-35%<\/td>\n<td>+12-20%<\/td>\n<td>+5-10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>15% H\u1ea1n Ch\u1ebf<\/td>\n<td>+40-55%<\/td>\n<td>+20-30%<\/td>\n<td>+10-15%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>20%+ H\u1ea1n Ch\u1ebf<\/td>\n<td>+60-100%<\/td>\n<td>+30-50%<\/td>\n<td>+15-25%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h3 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch H\u00e0m Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee8ng C\u1ee7a Nh\u00e0 S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>H\u00e0m ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t (PRF) m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng cung khi gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh PRF = \u03b1 \u00d7 (1 &#8211; e^(-\u03b2t)) \u00d7 (P\/P\u2080)^\u03b3 m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y, trong \u0111\u00f3 \u03b1 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ed1i \u0111a, \u03b2 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng, t \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho th\u1eddi gian, P\/P\u2080 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 so v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 s\u1edf, v\u00e0 \u03b3 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c m\u1eabu PRF l\u1ecbch s\u1eed ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 4-6 th\u00e1ng l\u00ean 7-10 th\u00e1ng trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, k\u00e9o d\u00e0i th\u1eddi gian t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 khi c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng. Nh\u1eefng chu k\u1ef3 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng d\u00e0i h\u01a1n n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i giao d\u1ecbch b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng nh\u01b0 Pocket Option.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'>\n<ul class='po-article-page-list'>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Giai \u0110o\u1ea1n \u0110\u1ed9 Tr\u1ec5 Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee8ng: 2-3 th\u00e1ng cho gi\u1ea5y ph\u00e9p khoan v\u00e0 l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Giai \u0110o\u1ea1n T\u0103ng S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t: 3-5 th\u00e1ng cho ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh gi\u1ebfng v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ban \u0111\u1ea7u<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Giai \u0110o\u1ea1n Ph\u00e2n Ph\u1ed1i: 1-2 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 cung c\u1ea5p m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m c\u1ea7u<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch T\u01b0\u01a1ng Quan v\u00e0 Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 Ch\u00e9o Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan ch\u00e9o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan (r) gi\u1eefa kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng li\u00ean quan cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c r = cov(X,Y)\/(\u03c3\u2093\u03c3\u1d67) \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y, trong \u0111\u00f3 cov(X,Y) \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho hi\u1ec7p ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai v\u00e0 \u03c3\u2093 v\u00e0 \u03c3\u1d67 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>C\u1eb7p Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/th>\n<th>H\u1ec7 S\u1ed1 T\u01b0\u01a1ng Quan (r)<\/th>\n<th>M\u1ed1i Quan H\u1ec7 D\u1eabn D\u1eaft\/Tr\u1ec5<\/th>\n<th>H\u00e0m \u00dd Giao D\u1ecbch<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean \/ D\u1ea7u Th\u00f4<\/td>\n<td>0.38<\/td>\n<td>D\u1ea7u d\u1eabn tr\u01b0\u1edbc 2-3 tu\u1ea7n<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean \/ \u0110i\u1ec7n<\/td>\n<td>0.76<\/td>\n<td>Kh\u00ed d\u1eabn tr\u01b0\u1edbc 1-2 tu\u1ea7n<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean \/ Than \u0110\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>0.61<\/td>\n<td>Than d\u1eabn tr\u01b0\u1edbc 3-4 tu\u1ea7n<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean \/ Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 Th\u1eddi Ti\u1ebft<\/td>\n<td>0.83<\/td>\n<td>Th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft d\u1eabn tr\u01b0\u1edbc 1-2 tu\u1ea7n<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1ea5t m\u1ea1nh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh vector autoregression (VAR) n\u00e2ng cao s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1eefa nhi\u1ec1u chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh Yt = A1Yt-1 + A2Yt-2 + &#8230; + ApYt-p + \u03b5t \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho khung n\u00e0y, trong \u0111\u00f3 Y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t vector c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn v\u00e0 A \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c ma tr\u1eadn h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh VAR th\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch 65-75% s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>T\u1ed1i \u01afu H\u00f3a Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 S\u1eed D\u1ee5ng C\u00e1c M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Sharpe (SR = (Rp &#8211; Rf)\/\u03c3p) cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t khung \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, trong \u0111\u00f3 Rp \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn danh m\u1ee5c, Rf \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng r\u1ee7i ro, v\u00e0 \u03c3p \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n danh m\u1ee5c.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00ean Pocket Option c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea khai th\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng kh\u00e1c nhau. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ecbch CS = Pm &#8211; Pn (trong \u0111\u00f3 Pm v\u00e0 Pn \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u00e1ng kh\u00e1c nhau) x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i khi ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ec7ch kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Lo\u1ea1i Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/th>\n<th>N\u1ec1n T\u1ea3ng To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<th>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Sharpe L\u1ecbch S\u1eed<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u1ed9 Ph\u1ee9c T\u1ea1p Th\u1ef1c Hi\u1ec7n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Giao D\u1ecbch \u0110\u1ed9ng L\u1ef1c<\/td>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Thay \u0110\u1ed5i (ROC) = (P\u2081-P\u2080)\/P\u2080<\/td>\n<td>0.75-1.10<\/td>\n<td>Th\u1ea5p<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>H\u1ed3i Quy Trung B\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<td>Z-Score = (P-\u03bc)\/\u03c3<\/td>\n<td>0.90-1.25<\/td>\n<td>Trung B\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ch\u00eanh L\u1ec7ch L\u1ecbch<\/td>\n<td>Ch\u00eanh L\u1ec7ch = F\u2081-F\u2082<\/td>\n<td>1.15-1.40<\/td>\n<td>Trung B\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Giao D\u1ecbch Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb Straddle = Call + Put<\/td>\n<td>1.30-1.65<\/td>\n<td>Cao<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh C\u01a1 B\u1ea3n<\/td>\n<td>H\u1ed3i Quy \u0110a Bi\u1ebfn<\/td>\n<td>1.45-1.80<\/td>\n<td>R\u1ea5t Cao<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 danh m\u1ee5c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u khi giao d\u1ecbch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c suy ra b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng khung l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft danh m\u1ee5c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c cho ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai danh m\u1ee5c \u03c3\u00b2p = \u03a3(wi\u03c3i)\u00b2 + \u03a3\u03a3wiwj\u03c3i\u03c3j\u03c1ij cung c\u1ea5p n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, trong \u0111\u00f3 wi \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n i, \u03c3i \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n c\u1ee7a t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n i, v\u00e0 \u03c1ij \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n i v\u00e0 j.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'>\n<ul class='po-article-page-list'>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Danh M\u1ee5c R\u1ee7i Ro Th\u1ea5p: Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 5-10% v\u00e0o h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean ho\u1eb7c ETFs<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Danh M\u1ee5c R\u1ee7i Ro Trung B\u00ecnh: Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 10-15% v\u1edbi 70% v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng, 30% ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Danh M\u1ee5c R\u1ee7i Ro Cao: Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 15-25% v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Khung Thu Th\u1eadp D\u1eef Li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 Quy Tr\u00ecnh Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>T\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u1ed9t khung thu th\u1eadp v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac. Quy tr\u00ecnh b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u b\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh, thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n d\u1eef li\u1ec7u, th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c quy tr\u00ecnh thu th\u1eadp v\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Danh M\u1ee5c D\u1eef Li\u1ec7u<\/th>\n<th>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 Ch\u00ednh<\/th>\n<th>T\u1ea7n Su\u1ea5t Thu Th\u1eadp<\/th>\n<th>\u1ee8ng D\u1ee5ng Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>D\u1eef Li\u1ec7u S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/td>\n<td>S\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y\/th\u00e1ng, s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u00e0n khoan, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh<\/td>\n<td>H\u00e0ng Tu\u1ea7n<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>D\u1eef Li\u1ec7u L\u01b0u Tr\u1eef<\/td>\n<td>M\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 b\u01a1m\/r\u00fat<\/td>\n<td>H\u00e0ng Tu\u1ea7n<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch, \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh m\u00f9a v\u1ee5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 C\u1ea7u<\/td>\n<td>S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec7n, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 d\u00e2n c\u01b0<\/td>\n<td>H\u00e0ng Tu\u1ea7n\/Th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan, t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>D\u1eef Li\u1ec7u Th\u1eddi Ti\u1ebft<\/td>\n<td>HDDs, CDDs, l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a, b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9<\/td>\n<td>H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy, nh\u1eadn d\u1ea1ng m\u1eabu<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>D\u1eef Li\u1ec7u Gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 giao ngay, \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn<\/td>\n<td>H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Quy tr\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tu\u00e2n theo m\u1ed9t khung n\u0103m b\u01b0\u1edbc: chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u, ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7, ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan, kh\u1edbp m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh v\u00e0 ki\u1ec3m tra x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn. Chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a z-score (Z = (X-\u03bc)\/\u03c3) \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 so s\u00e1nh tr\u00ean c\u00e1c thang \u0111o kh\u00e1c nhau. Ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p Z-score s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi MAD (\u0110\u1ed9 L\u1ec7ch Tuy\u1ec7t \u0110\u1ed1i Trung V\u1ecb) \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m l\u1ec7ch ph\u00e2n t\u00edch.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch Pocket Option s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u. Khung h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c thi\u00ean ki\u1ebfn c\u1ea3m x\u00fac trong c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh giao d\u1ecbch v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n c\u1ee7a k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h3 class='po-article-page__title'>Ki\u1ec3m Tra \u00dd Ngh\u0129a Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Ki\u1ec3m tra gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft cung c\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t ph\u00e2n t\u00edch khi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t-statistic t = (x\u0304 &#8211; \u03bc)\/(s\/\u221an) \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng li\u1ec7u c\u00e1c t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 quan s\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea hay c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 nhi\u1ec5u ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng p-value 0.05 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u00fd ngh\u0129a.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'>\n<ul class='po-article-page-list'>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Gi\u1ea3 Thuy\u1ebft Kh\u00f4ng (H\u2080): Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan s\u00e1t kh\u00f4ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Gi\u1ea3 Thuy\u1ebft Thay Th\u1ebf (H\u2081): Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan s\u00e1t \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>M\u1ee9c \u00dd Ngh\u0129a: \u03b1 = 0.05 (kho\u1ea3ng tin c\u1eady 95%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y v\u00e0o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u00e1o c\u00e1o l\u01b0u tr\u1eef cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho l\u1ec7ch kh\u1ecfi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng h\u01a1n 7 t\u1ef7 feet kh\u1ed1i (Bcf) t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea (p &lt; 0.01), trong khi c\u00e1c l\u1ec7ch nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho nhi\u1ec5u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>K\u1ebft Lu\u1eadn: Khung To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc cho Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Gi\u00e1 Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 t\u00edch h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t khung to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n. C\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf cung, c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ea7u, m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 cung c\u1ea5p kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a \u0111\u00fang c\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng. S\u1ef1 t\u00edch h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t khung ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c thi\u00ean ki\u1ebfn c\u1ea3m x\u00fac v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n c\u1ee7a k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng nh\u01b0 Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1c nhau. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong khi qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>S\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 tinh ch\u1ec9nh li\u00ean t\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch khi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 linh ho\u1ea1t trong c\u00e1c khung ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd trong khi tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u kh\u1ecfi nhi\u1ec5u trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n    <div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article\">\n        <a href=\"\/en\/quick-start\/\" class=\"po-line-banner po-article-page__line-banner\">\n            <svg class=\"svg-image po-line-banner__logo\" fill=\"currentColor\" width=\"auto\" height=\"auto\"\n                 aria-hidden=\"true\">\n                <use href=\"#svg-img-logo-white\"><\/use>\n            <\/svg>\n            <span class=\"po-line-banner__btn\"><\/span>\n        <\/a>\n    <\/div>\n    \n"},"faq":[{"question":"Nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh n\u00e0o \u0111ang \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00ean cao?","answer":"C\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh bao g\u1ed3m s\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung-c\u1ea7u, h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft, m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef v\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. V\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, khi h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 10%, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ea3i qua m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 t\u1eeb 25-35%. M\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m n\u0103m kho\u1ea3ng 10% c\u00f3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 t\u1eeb 15-22%. C\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 0,41 \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m gi\u00e1, ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 1% trong ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed9 s\u01b0\u1edfi \u1ea5m c\u00f3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 0,41%."},{"question":"L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a bi\u1ebfn k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn nh\u01b0 kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh vector autoregression (VAR) n\u1eafm b\u1eaft m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1eefa nhi\u1ec1u chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch 65-75% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 v\u00e0 d\u01b0 th\u1eeba cung c\u1ea5p th\u00eam s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 d\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1eddng."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0o hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1ea5t bao g\u1ed3m ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a bi\u1ebfn (R\u00b2 th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb 0.72-0.86), ph\u00e2n r\u00e3 chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian (t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 v\u00e0 d\u01b0 th\u1eeba), ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 Pearson (r), t\u1ef1 h\u1ed3i quy vector cho c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111a bi\u1ebfn, v\u00e0 ki\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft v\u1edbi th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea t. T\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c h\u00e0m ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng cung c\u1ea5p th\u00eam s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n thay \u0111\u1ed5i."},{"question":"C\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc?","answer":"C\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng qua c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c PC = (S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t Ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng - S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf)\/S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t Ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i Es = (\u0394Q\/Q)\/(\u0394P\/P) \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1ch s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cung c\u1ea5p kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 0.12 \u0111\u1ebfn 0.35 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 t\u1eeb 0.65 \u0111\u1ebfn 1.20 trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. H\u00e0m ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t PRF = \u03b1 \u00d7 (1 - e^(-\u03b2t)) \u00d7 (P\/P\u2080)^\u03b3 m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 cung c\u1ea5p t\u0103ng l\u00ean khi gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng, v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 7-10 th\u00e1ng."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"C\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ecbu r\u1ee7i ro, nh\u01b0ng bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ecbch (khai th\u00e1c s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng), ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh (s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Z-Score = (P-\u03bc)\/\u03c3), giao d\u1ecbch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng (th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn straddles), v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n (s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a bi\u1ebfn). T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Sharpe (SR = (Rp - Rf)\/\u03c3p) gi\u00fap \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c. \u0110\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u, l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i cung c\u1ea5p khung th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai \u03c3\u00b2p = \u03a3(wi\u03c3i)\u00b2 + \u03a3\u03a3wiwj\u03c3i\u03c3j\u03c1ij \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn."}],"faq_source":{"label":"FAQ","type":"repeater","formatted_value":[{"question":"Nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh n\u00e0o \u0111ang \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00ean cao?","answer":"C\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh bao g\u1ed3m s\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung-c\u1ea7u, h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft, m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef v\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. V\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, khi h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 10%, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ea3i qua m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 t\u1eeb 25-35%. M\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m n\u0103m kho\u1ea3ng 10% c\u00f3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 t\u1eeb 15-22%. C\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 0,41 \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m gi\u00e1, ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 1% trong ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed9 s\u01b0\u1edfi \u1ea5m c\u00f3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 0,41%."},{"question":"L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a bi\u1ebfn k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn nh\u01b0 kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u01b0u tr\u1eef, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh vector autoregression (VAR) n\u1eafm b\u1eaft m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1eefa nhi\u1ec1u chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch 65-75% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 v\u00e0 d\u01b0 th\u1eeba cung c\u1ea5p th\u00eam s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 d\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1eddng."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0o hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1ea5t bao g\u1ed3m ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a bi\u1ebfn (R\u00b2 th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb 0.72-0.86), ph\u00e2n r\u00e3 chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian (t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 v\u00e0 d\u01b0 th\u1eeba), ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 Pearson (r), t\u1ef1 h\u1ed3i quy vector cho c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111a bi\u1ebfn, v\u00e0 ki\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft v\u1edbi th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea t. T\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c h\u00e0m ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng cung c\u1ea5p th\u00eam s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n thay \u0111\u1ed5i."},{"question":"C\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc?","answer":"C\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng qua c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c PC = (S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t Ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng - S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf)\/S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t Ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i Es = (\u0394Q\/Q)\/(\u0394P\/P) \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1ch s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cung c\u1ea5p kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 0.12 \u0111\u1ebfn 0.35 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 t\u1eeb 0.65 \u0111\u1ebfn 1.20 trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. H\u00e0m ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t PRF = \u03b1 \u00d7 (1 - e^(-\u03b2t)) \u00d7 (P\/P\u2080)^\u03b3 m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 cung c\u1ea5p t\u0103ng l\u00ean khi gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng, v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 7-10 th\u00e1ng."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"C\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ecbu r\u1ee7i ro, nh\u01b0ng bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ecbch (khai th\u00e1c s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng), ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh (s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Z-Score = (P-\u03bc)\/\u03c3), giao d\u1ecbch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng (th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn straddles), v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n (s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a bi\u1ebfn). T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Sharpe (SR = (Rp - Rf)\/\u03c3p) gi\u00fap \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c. \u0110\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u, l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i cung c\u1ea5p khung th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai \u03c3\u00b2p = \u03a3(wi\u03c3i)\u00b2 + \u03a3\u03a3wiwj\u03c3i\u03c3j\u03c1ij \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn."}]}},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>T\u1ea1i sao kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng: Khung ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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