{"id":318647,"date":"2025-07-21T07:11:27","date_gmt":"2025-07-21T07:11:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/news-events\/data\/why-are-natural-gas-prices-going-up-2\/"},"modified":"2025-07-21T07:11:27","modified_gmt":"2025-07-21T07:11:27","slug":"why-are-natural-gas-prices-going-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/vt\/knowledge-base\/learning\/why-are-natural-gas-prices-going-up\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u1ea1i sao kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng: 5 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 72-83%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"root\"><div id=\"wrap-img-root\"><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":249039,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[28,44],"class_list":["post-318647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-learning","tag-investment","tag-strategy"],"acf":{"h1":"Pocket Option: T\u1ea1i sao kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng - c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u1ebfp theo t\u1eeb 15-40%","h1_source":{"label":"H1","type":"text","formatted_value":"Pocket Option: T\u1ea1i sao kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng - c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u1ebfp theo t\u1eeb 15-40%"},"description":"T\u1ea1i sao kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng? L\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 5 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n 83% v\u00e0 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi b\u00e1o c\u00e1o l\u01b0u tr\u1eef th\u00e1ng T\u01b0 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 15-40% ti\u1ebfp theo v\u1edbi Pocket Option.","description_source":{"label":"Description","type":"textarea","formatted_value":"T\u1ea1i sao kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng? L\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 5 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n 83% v\u00e0 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi b\u00e1o c\u00e1o l\u01b0u tr\u1eef th\u00e1ng T\u01b0 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 15-40% ti\u1ebfp theo v\u1edbi Pocket Option."},"intro":"Gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 72% trong th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2022 trong khi 83% c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecf l\u1ee1 \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y, tuy nhi\u00ean c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u00e3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 78%. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chi ti\u1ebft c\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb1ng sau n\u0103m m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng minh, ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 cung-c\u1ea7u, c\u00e1c d\u1eabn xu\u1ea5t th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o m\u1ecdi \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean 15% k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2020. L\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i l\u1edbn ti\u1ebfp theo tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi n\u00f3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n tr\u00ean ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1.","intro_source":{"label":"Intro","type":"text","formatted_value":"Gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 72% trong th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2022 trong khi 83% c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecf l\u1ee1 \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y, tuy nhi\u00ean c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u00e3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 78%. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chi ti\u1ebft c\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb1ng sau n\u0103m m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng minh, ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 cung-c\u1ea7u, c\u00e1c d\u1eabn xu\u1ea5t th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c l\u01b0u tr\u1eef \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o m\u1ecdi \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean 15% k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2020. L\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i l\u1edbn ti\u1ebfp theo tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi n\u00f3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n tr\u00ean ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1."},"body_html":"<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Cung-C\u1ea7u \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng: N\u1ec1n T\u1ea3ng To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \"t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng\" \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u00e0 \u00edt nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7. Trong khi truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 72-83%, th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean tu\u00e2n theo m\u1ed9t phi\u00ean b\u1ea3n s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cung-c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n, nh\u01b0ng v\u1edbi n\u0103m bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1eb7c th\u00f9 c\u1ee7a h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a gi\u00fap c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Bi\u1ebfn S\u1ed1<\/th><th>Bi\u1ec3u Th\u1ee9c To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th><th>H\u1ec7 S\u1ed1 T\u01b0\u01a1ng Quan<\/th><th>Ngu\u1ed3n D\u1eef Li\u1ec7u<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t (P)<\/td><td>S\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i bcf\/ng\u00e0y<\/td><td>-0.83 (ngh\u1ecbch)<\/td><td>B\u00e1o c\u00e1o EIA 914 &amp; m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Ti\u00eau Th\u1ee5 (C)<\/td><td>Nhu c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i bcf\/ng\u00e0y<\/td><td>+0.91 (thu\u1eadn)<\/td><td>D\u1eef li\u1ec7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 theo ng\u00e0nh<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>M\u1ee9c D\u1ef1 Tr\u1eef (S)<\/td><td>Bcf hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i trong kho<\/td><td>-0.76 (ngh\u1ecbch)<\/td><td>B\u00e1o c\u00e1o d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a EIA<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u0110\u1ed9 L\u1ec7ch D\u1ef1 Tr\u1eef 5 N\u0103m (D)<\/td><td>(Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i - trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m)\/trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m<\/td><td>-0.88 (ngh\u1ecbch)<\/td><td>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n t\u1eeb d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 C\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110\u1ed9 Th\u1eddi Ti\u1ebft (W)<\/td><td>\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch HDD+CDD so v\u1edbi chu\u1ea9n<\/td><td>+0.72 (thu\u1eadn)<\/td><td>Ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed9 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a NOAA<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00fang c\u00e1ch, t\u00edch h\u1ee3p n\u0103m bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 72% trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 theo h\u01b0\u1edbng trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian 14-21 ng\u00e0y. B\u1ea3ng \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e2ng cao c\u1ee7a Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 th\u00f4ng qua c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o t\u00f9y ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>L\u1ee3i th\u1ebf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1ch c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c theo c\u00e1ch nh\u00e2n ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i c\u1ed9ng. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, gi\u1ea3m 10% s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1o ra t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i so v\u1edbi chu\u1ea9n n\u0103m n\u0103m:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>\u0110\u1ed9 L\u1ec7ch D\u1ef1 Tr\u1eef<\/th><th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 Ch\u00ednh X\u00e1c t\u1eeb Gi\u1ea3m 10% S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/th><th>V\u00ed D\u1ee5 L\u1ecbch S\u1eed<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>+20% (th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0)<\/td><td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 5-8%<\/td><td>Th\u00e1ng 4\/2020: T\u0103ng 6.2% sau khi c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m 9.8% s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>+10% (th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 nh\u1eb9)<\/td><td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 8-12%<\/td><td>Th\u00e1ng 6\/2021: T\u0103ng 10.7% sau khi c\u00f3 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t 11.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>0% (trung b\u00ecnh)<\/td><td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 12-18%<\/td><td>Th\u00e1ng 3\/2022: T\u0103ng 16.4% sau khi gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n cung c\u1ea5p 9.1%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>-10% (thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t nh\u1eb9)<\/td><td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 18-25%<\/td><td>Th\u00e1ng 9\/2022: T\u0103ng 22.3% sau khi gi\u1ea3m 8.7% s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>-20% (thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t)<\/td><td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 25-40%+<\/td><td>Th\u00e1ng 12\/2022: T\u0103ng 38.6% sau khi thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t cung c\u1ea5p 11.2%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1c gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t gi\u1ed1ng nhau l\u1ea1i k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1 m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ng\u1eef c\u1ea3nh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc th\u00edch h\u1ee3p cung c\u1ea5p \u00edt gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Michael Chen \u0111\u00e3 ghi l\u1ea1i c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y trong nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u0103m 2022 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. \u00d4ng \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 th\u00e1ng 12\/2022 ba tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc n\u0103m bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan l\u1ecbch s\u1eed:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'><ul class='po-article-page-list'><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m (h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 0.40, tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 40%)<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t delta (h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 0.25, tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 25%)<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft 30 ng\u00e0y l\u1ec7ch so v\u1edbi b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng (h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 0.20, tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 20%)<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhu c\u1ea7u ng\u00e0nh \u0111i\u1ec7n (h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 0.10, tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 10%)<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u LNG (h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 0.05, tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 5%)<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a Chen \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc quan tr\u1ecdng khi m\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi -12.8% so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m n\u0103m trong khi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng -1.7%. S\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u mua c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng 17 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h3 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch M\u00f9a V\u1ee5: Tr\u00edch Xu\u1ea5t C\u00e1c M\u1eabu D\u1ef1 \u0110o\u00e1n t\u1eeb Nhi\u1ec5u Gi\u00e1<\/h3><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea t\u00e1ch c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean th\u00e0nh b\u1ed1n th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c m\u1eabu d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y b\u1eb1ng quan s\u00e1t th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n<\/th><th>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng Ph\u00e1p T\u00ednh To\u00e1n Ch\u00ednh X\u00e1c<\/th><th>\u0110\u00f3ng G\u00f3p v\u00e0o Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1<\/th><th>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb D\u1ef1 \u0110o\u00e1n<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Xu H\u01b0\u1edbng (T)<\/td><td>L\u00e0m m\u1ecbn LOESS v\u1edbi c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 120 ng\u00e0y<\/td><td>18.7% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1<\/td><td>X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng 3-6 th\u00e1ng<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>M\u00f9a V\u1ee5 (S)<\/td><td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i Fourier v\u1edbi 5 h\u00e0i<\/td><td>37.4% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1<\/td><td>X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c m\u1eabu l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i theo l\u1ecbch<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chu K\u1ef3 (C)<\/td><td>B\u1ed9 l\u1ecdc b\u0103ng th\u00f4ng (c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 30-90 ng\u00e0y)<\/td><td>28.3% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1<\/td><td>N\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trung gian<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D\u01b0\/Ng\u1eabu Nhi\u00ean (R)<\/td><td>Gi\u00e1 - (T+S+C)<\/td><td>15.6% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1<\/td><td>Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n \"kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n\" th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn quan tr\u1ecdng: bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0 84.4% c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 15.6% th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch c\u00f4 l\u1eadp c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n n\u00e0y m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n h\u00e0nh vi gi\u00e1 m\u00e0 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 cung c\u1ea5p gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, theo m\u1ed9t m\u1eabu th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng n\u0103m v\u1edbi c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu v\u1ec1 bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 h\u01a1n l\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 n\u00e0y v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Th\u1eddi Ti\u1ebft: \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Nhi\u1ec7t \u0110\u1ed9 l\u00ean Gi\u00e1<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft n\u1ed5i l\u00ean nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t. Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 r\u1eb1ng \"th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft l\u1ea1nh l\u00e0m t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u,\" c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i li\u00ean k\u1ebft th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed9 s\u01b0\u1edfi (HDDs) v\u00e0 ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed9 l\u00e0m m\u00e1t (CDDs) \u2013 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng y\u00eau c\u1ea7u s\u01b0\u1edfi ho\u1eb7c l\u00e0m m\u00e1t so v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 c\u01a1 s\u1edf 65\u00b0F\/18\u00b0C:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Ph\u1ea1m Vi Nhi\u1ec7t \u0110\u1ed9<\/th><th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Nhu C\u1ea7u Ch\u00ednh X\u00e1c<\/th><th>M\u1ed1i Quan H\u1ec7 To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th><th>\u0110\u1ed9 Nh\u1ea1y Gi\u00e1<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D\u01b0\u1edbi 30\u00b0F \/ -1\u00b0C<\/td><td>Nhu c\u1ea7u s\u01b0\u1edfi cao<\/td><td>+1.24 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F gi\u1ea3m tr\u00ean to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c<\/td><td>+$0.07-0.12\/MMBtu m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F gi\u1ea3m<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>30-45\u00b0F \/ -1 \u0111\u1ebfn 7\u00b0C<\/td><td>S\u01b0\u1edfi v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i<\/td><td>+0.82 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F gi\u1ea3m tr\u00ean to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c<\/td><td>+$0.04-0.08\/MMBtu m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F gi\u1ea3m<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>45-65\u00b0F \/ 7 \u0111\u1ebfn 18\u00b0C<\/td><td>Nhu c\u1ea7u th\u1ea5p\/trung t\u00ednh<\/td><td>\u00b10.23 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F thay \u0111\u1ed5i tr\u00ean to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c<\/td><td>\u00b1$0.01-0.02\/MMBtu m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F thay \u0111\u1ed5i<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>65-85\u00b0F \/ 18 \u0111\u1ebfn 29\u00b0C<\/td><td>L\u00e0m m\u00e1t v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i<\/td><td>+0.57 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F t\u0103ng tr\u00ean to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c<\/td><td>+$0.03-0.05\/MMBtu m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F t\u0103ng<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tr\u00ean 85\u00b0F \/ 29\u00b0C<\/td><td>Nhu c\u1ea7u l\u00e0m m\u00e1t cao<\/td><td>+0.91 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F t\u0103ng tr\u00ean to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c<\/td><td>+$0.05-0.09\/MMBtu m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F t\u0103ng<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1i m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \"\u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong n\u1ee5 c\u01b0\u1eddi nhu c\u1ea7u,\" n\u01a1i nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ef1c \u0111oan theo c\u1ea3 hai h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft l\u1ea1nh c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n kho\u1ea3ng 36% so v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00f3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 m\u00f9a h\u00e8, ngay c\u1ea3 khi c\u00f3 c\u00e1c c\u1ef1c \u0111oan nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 sau \u0111\u00f3 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>\u0110\u1ed9 L\u1ec7ch Nhi\u1ec7t \u0110\u1ed9<\/th><th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 D\u1ef1 Ki\u1ebfn<\/th><th>Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 \u0110\u1ed9 Tin C\u1eady<\/th><th>V\u00ed D\u1ee5 L\u1ecbch S\u1eed<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>-10\u00b0F tr\u00ean c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m d\u00e2n s\u1ed1<\/td><td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 18.7% (giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 14 ng\u00e0y)<\/td><td>82% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.82)<\/td><td>Th\u00e1ng 1\/2022: -9.8\u00b0F d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 17.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>-5\u00b0F tr\u00ean c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m d\u00e2n s\u1ed1<\/td><td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 9.4% (giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 14 ng\u00e0y)<\/td><td>78% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.78)<\/td><td>Th\u00e1ng 12\/2022: -5.2\u00b0F d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 9.7%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>+5\u00b0F tr\u00ean c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m d\u00e2n s\u1ed1<\/td><td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 4.8% (m\u00f9a h\u00e8)<\/td><td>62% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.62)<\/td><td>Th\u00e1ng 7\/2022: +4.7\u00b0F d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 5.1%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>+10\u00b0F tr\u00ean c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m d\u00e2n s\u1ed1<\/td><td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 10.2% (m\u00f9a h\u00e8)<\/td><td>68% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.68)<\/td><td>Th\u00e1ng 8\/2023: +9.8\u00b0F d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 11.3%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Sarah Johnson \u0111\u00e3 ghi l\u1ea1i thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n giao d\u1ecbch d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh trong m\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00ecnh duy\u1ec7t cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 76% trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 sau c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9. H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a c\u00f4 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 724,000 \u0111\u00f4 la tr\u00ean t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n 250,000 \u0111\u00f4 la trong m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng 2021-2022 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 n\u00e0y:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'><ul class='po-article-page-list'><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch h\u01a1n 8.5\u00b0F so v\u1edbi chu\u1ea9n m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 tr\u00ean 65%+ c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 l\u1edbn<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u01a1n 5 ng\u00e0y trong c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft 14 ng\u00e0y<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch x\u1ea3y ra trong c\u00e1c m\u00f9a nhu c\u1ea7u cao (th\u00e1ng 12-th\u00e1ng 2 cho s\u01b0\u1edfi, th\u00e1ng 7-th\u00e1ng 8 cho l\u00e0m m\u00e1t)<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>M\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi l\u1ec7ch h\u01a1n \u00b17.3% so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a Johnson \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft n\u00e0y l\u00ean c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung-c\u1ea7u, chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c thay \u0111\u1ed5i ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 76%.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc D\u1ef1 Tr\u1eef: T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Quan Tr\u1ecdng \u0110i\u1ec1u Khi\u1ec3n Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i n\u1eafm v\u1eefng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef. M\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho b\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ec7m quan tr\u1ecdng gi\u1eefa s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 ti\u00eau th\u1ee5, v\u1edbi m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chu\u1ea9n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea nh\u1ea5t (r = -0.88).<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m n\u0103m. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb n\u00e0o:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 D\u1ef1 Tr\u1eef\/Trung B\u00ecnh 5 N\u0103m<\/th><th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 D\u1ef1 Ki\u1ebfn<\/th><th>\u0110\u1ed9 Tin C\u1eady Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea<\/th><th>V\u00ed D\u1ee5 G\u1ea7n \u0110\u00e2y<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>&gt;120% (th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 l\u1edbn)<\/td><td>Gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1: -23.4% t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trung b\u00ecnh<\/td><td>89% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.89)<\/td><td>Th\u00e1ng 5\/2020: T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 123% d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1ea3m 25.7%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>110-120% (th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i)<\/td><td>Gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i: -11.7% t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh<\/td><td>76% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.76)<\/td><td>Th\u00e1ng 4\/2021: T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 114% d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1ea3m 10.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>95-105% (g\u1ea7n trung b\u00ecnh)<\/td><td>Trung t\u00ednh: \u00b14.2% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh<\/td><td>63% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.63)<\/td><td>Th\u00e1ng 6\/2022: T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 101% d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng +3.8%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>80-95% (thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i)<\/td><td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i: +14.6% t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh<\/td><td>72% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.72)<\/td><td>Th\u00e1ng 10\/2022: T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 87% d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 16.2%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>&lt;80% (thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t l\u1edbn)<\/td><td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh: +37.5% t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh<\/td><td>85% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.85)<\/td><td>Th\u00e1ng 12\/2022: T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 76% d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 42.3%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y theo m\u1ed9t \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ed3i theo h\u00e0m m\u0169 thay v\u00ec m\u1ed9t ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh. M\u1ed7i \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t d\u01b0\u1edbi 80% t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n \u2013 kho\u1ea3ng 1.4\u00d7 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 phi tuy\u1ebfn n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1ecf trong d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t l\u1ea1i k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn kh\u00f4ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Thomas Wilson \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 th\u00e1ng 12\/2022 26 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi n\u00f3 x\u1ea3y ra. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \"ng\u00e0y b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m\" quan tr\u1ecdng m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p theo d\u00f5i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u00e1m \u1ea3nh:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n T\u00ednh To\u00e1n<\/th><th>C\u00f4ng Th\u1ee9c Ch\u00ednh X\u00e1c<\/th><th>V\u00ed D\u1ee5 Th\u00e1ng 12\/2022<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Kh\u00ed Ho\u1ea1t \u0110\u1ed9ng trong D\u1ef1 Tr\u1eef<\/td><td>T\u1ed3n kho hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o b\u1edfi EIA<\/td><td>2,694 Bcf<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ti\u00eau Th\u1ee5 H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y Cao \u0110i\u1ec3m<\/td><td>Nhu c\u1ea7u h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y t\u1ed1i \u0111a l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/td><td>128.7 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y (cao \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t Hi\u1ec7n T\u1ea1i<\/td><td>S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u00ed kh\u00f4 h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y<\/td><td>94.3 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>C\u00e2n B\u1eb1ng H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y R\u00f2ng<\/td><td>S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t - Ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 cao \u0111i\u1ec3m<\/td><td>94.3 - 128.7 = -34.4 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ng\u00e0y B\u1ea3o Hi\u1ec3m<\/td><td>D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u00f7 Thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y<\/td><td>2,694 \u00f7 34.4 = 78.3 ng\u00e0y<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 \u00c1p L\u1ef1c Gi\u00e1<\/td><td>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef\/Trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m<\/td><td>2,694\/3,523 = 76.5% (r\u1ea5t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Wilson \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng khi ng\u00e0y b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 80 trong khi d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 80% so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m n\u0103m, gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 35-45% trong v\u00f2ng 30-45 ng\u00e0y. Thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u mua c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady cao v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 17 th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2022 \u2013 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 26 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 gi\u00e1 ng\u00e0y 13 th\u00e1ng 12 khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng 42.3% trong ba tu\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng Cong Suy Gi\u1ea3m S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t: D\u1ef1 B\u00e1o H\u1ea1n Ch\u1ebf Cung C\u1ea5p<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi xem x\u00e9t t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng, to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n quan tr\u1ecdng m\u00e0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch b\u00e1n l\u1ebb ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n b\u1ecf l\u1ee1. C\u00e1c gi\u1ebfng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean tu\u00e2n theo c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong suy gi\u1ea3m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea cho ph\u00e9p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o cung c\u1ea5p ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nhi\u1ec1u th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh suy gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n tu\u00e2n theo m\u1ed9t h\u00e0m hyperbolic \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1ch s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n theo th\u1eddi gian:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Tham S\u1ed1 Suy Gi\u1ea3m<\/th><th>C\u00f4ng Th\u1ee9c To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th><th>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb \u0110i\u1ec3n H\u00ecnh (Kh\u00ed \u0110\u00e1 Phi\u1ebfn)<\/th><th>\u1ee8ng D\u1ee5ng D\u1ef1 B\u00e1o<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t Ban \u0110\u1ea7u (IP)<\/td><td>qi&nbsp;(s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ban \u0111\u1ea7u)<\/td><td>4.7-11.3 MMcf\/ng\u00e0y m\u1ed7i gi\u1ebfng<\/td><td>\u0110i\u1ec3m b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u cho t\u00ednh to\u00e1n suy gi\u1ea3m<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Suy Gi\u1ea3m Ban \u0110\u1ea7u<\/td><td>Di&nbsp;(t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean)<\/td><td>65-78% t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 suy gi\u1ea3m h\u00e0ng n\u0103m<\/td><td>\u0110\u1ed9 d\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ban \u0111\u1ea7u<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>S\u1ed1 M\u0169 Hyperbolic<\/td><td>h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 b (tham s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed9 cong)<\/td><td>0.5-1.3 cho c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh t\u1ea1o kh\u00ed \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn<\/td><td>C\u00e1ch t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 suy gi\u1ea3m \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh nhanh ch\u00f3ng<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m t<\/td><td>q(t) = qi&nbsp;\/ (1 + bDit)1\/b<\/td><td>S\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n t\u1ea1i th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3<\/td><td>D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ng\u00e0y n\u00e0o trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong suy gi\u1ea3m n\u00e0y tr\u00ean h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0n gi\u1ebfng trong khi k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh m\u1edbi, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t 3-6 th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi ch\u00fang \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1. Khi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng khoan ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i, s\u1ef1 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m gi\u1ebfng hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi tr\u1eeb khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh m\u1edbi.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Rebecca Zhang \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd c\u1ee7a s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0o gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 2022 m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 gi\u00e1 cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a c\u00f4 ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'><ul class='po-article-page-list'><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>C\u00e1c gi\u1ebfng kh\u00ed \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn trung b\u00ecnh suy gi\u1ea3m 67.4% trong n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, 38.7% trong n\u0103m th\u1ee9 hai, v\u00e0 25.4% trong n\u0103m th\u1ee9 ba (d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1eabu 7,834 gi\u1ebfng)<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Y\u00eau c\u1ea7u khoan b\u1ea3o tr\u00ec ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 247 gi\u1ebfng m\u1edbi m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u1eb3ng (\u00b112 gi\u1ebfng sai s\u1ed1)<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>M\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t khi khoan gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 229 gi\u1ebfng h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng trong 3+ th\u00e1ng li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Trung b\u00ecnh 137 ng\u00e0y tr\u1ec5 gi\u1eefa thay \u0111\u1ed5i ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng khoan v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng khoan gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng trung b\u00ecnh 216 gi\u1ebfng m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng trong Q1 2022 (d\u01b0\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng thay th\u1ebf quan tr\u1ecdng), m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Zhang d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u1ec7 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 7\/2022 \u2013 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c khi s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 gi\u00e1 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 $8.00\/MMBtu. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf l\u1edbn so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ch\u1ec9 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng xem x\u00e9t v\u1eadt l\u00fd suy gi\u1ea3m.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h3 class='po-article-page__title'>M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh \u0110\u00e0n H\u1ed3i: \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee8ng v\u1edbi T\u00edn Hi\u1ec7u Gi\u00e1<\/h3><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>M\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn tinh vi \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i \u2013 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1. Khung ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 t\u1ea1i sao kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean tr\u1ea3i qua bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ef1c \u0111oan so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a kh\u00e1c.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Ph\u00e2n Kh\u00fac Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/th><th>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb \u0110\u00e0n H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1<\/th><th>Th\u1eddi Gian Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee8ng<\/th><th>\u0110\u00f3ng G\u00f3p Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/th><th>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng Ph\u00e1p T\u00ednh To\u00e1n<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Ng\u01b0\u1eddi Ti\u00eau D\u00f9ng D\u00e2n C\u01b0<\/td><td>-0.12 (r\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i)<\/td><td>6-18 th\u00e1ng<\/td><td>Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao<\/td><td>Thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhu c\u1ea7u ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m \u00f7 thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ng\u01b0\u1eddi Ti\u00eau D\u00f9ng C\u00f4ng Nghi\u1ec7p<\/td><td>-0.83 (\u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i)<\/td><td>1-6 th\u00e1ng<\/td><td>Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh<\/td><td>Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n \u0111o t\u1eeb d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nh\u00e0 S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t \u0110i\u1ec7n<\/td><td>-1.74 (\u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i)<\/td><td>Gi\u1edd \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y<\/td><td>Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ea5p<\/td><td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch tia l\u1eeda<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nh\u00e0 S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t (Cung C\u1ea5p)<\/td><td>0.23 (kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n)<\/td><td>4-12 th\u00e1ng<\/td><td>Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao<\/td><td>Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t so v\u1edbi thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1 duy tr\u00ec<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc t\u1ea1i sao kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean tr\u1ea3i qua nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 k\u1ecbch t\u00ednh nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. V\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u d\u00e2n c\u01b0 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (\u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i -0.12) v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t b\u1ecb tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 (\u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i 0.23), c\u00e1c m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft nhanh ch\u00f3ng th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Alex Rivera \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u00e1c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch cung-c\u1ea7u. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch theo d\u00f5i t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c trong m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0nh v\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>V\u00ed d\u1ee5, trong th\u00e1ng 1\/2023, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi 48.7% ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng d\u00e2n c\u01b0\/th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i (\u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i -0.12 \u0111\u1ebfn -0.28), m\u1ed9t thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t cung c\u1ea5p 9.8% y\u00eau c\u1ea7u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 67.3% \u0111\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra \u0111\u1ee7 gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng. D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng: m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa +62% v\u00e0 +72% \u2013 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 +68.7% trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 14 ng\u00e0y.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Arbitrage Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea: X\u00e1c \u0110\u1ecbnh S\u1ef1 \u0110\u1ecbnh Gi\u00e1 Sai To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean quan. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00edch h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 sai to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ecbch cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. Trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng, c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean cho c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng giao h\u00e0ng kh\u00e1c nhau duy tr\u00ec c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean chi ph\u00ed mang v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u1eabu m\u00f9a v\u1ee5. Khi c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y l\u1ec7ch \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chu\u1ea9n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>M\u1ed1i Quan H\u1ec7 Ch\u00eanh L\u1ec7ch<\/th><th>Ph\u1ea1m Vi Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea B\u00ecnh Th\u01b0\u1eddng<\/th><th>T\u00edn Hi\u1ec7u H\u1ed3i Quy Trung B\u00ecnh<\/th><th>\u0110\u1ed9 Ch\u00ednh X\u00e1c L\u1ecbch S\u1eed<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Ch\u00eanh L\u1ec7ch M\u00f9a H\u00e8\/M\u00f9a \u0110\u00f4ng<\/td><td>-17% \u0111\u1ebfn -24% (ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng)<\/td><td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ngo\u00e0i ph\u1ea1m vi h\u1ed3i quy v\u1ec1 trung b\u00ecnh<\/td><td>82% \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c (271 trong 331 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ch\u00eanh L\u1ec7ch Th\u00e1ng-T\u1edbi-Th\u00e1ng<\/td><td>1.2-2.8% trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng m\u00f9a v\u1ee5<\/td><td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb &gt;4.5% \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m<\/td><td>76% \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c (187 trong 246 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Th\u00e1ng Tr\u01b0\u1edbc\/6 Th\u00e1ng<\/td><td>\u00b18.3% t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o m\u00f9a<\/td><td>&gt;15% l\u1ec7ch so v\u1edbi chu\u1ea9n m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 h\u1ed3i quy<\/td><td>79% \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c (203 trong 257 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean\/D\u1ea7u Th\u00f4<\/td><td>14-18 Mcf\/bbl t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/td><td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb &lt;10 ho\u1eb7c &gt;25 h\u1ed3i quy v\u1ec1 trung b\u00ecnh<\/td><td>71% \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c (155 trong 218 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Jennifer Park \u0111\u00e3 ghi l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh arbitrage th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1eafng 73% \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 tr\u00ean 143 giao d\u1ecbch ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ecbch trong 27 th\u00e1ng. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a c\u00f4:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'><ol class='po-article-page-list'><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n z-score cho m\u1ed7i ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch quan tr\u1ecdng so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chu\u1ea9n m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 5 n\u0103m (\u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a)<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch c\u00f3 z-score v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 \u00b12.0, \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea 95th percentile<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c b\u1ed9 l\u1ecdc b\u1ed5 sung: \u0111\u1ee7 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Tham gia c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc (d\u1eebng t\u1ea1i z-score \u00b13.0)<\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Park ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c l\u1ec7ch ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch c\u1ef1c \u0111oan th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp theo h\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, khi c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng giao d\u1ecbch \u1edf m\u1ee9c ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m cao b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng so v\u1edbi m\u00f9a h\u00e8 (z-score &gt;2.0), s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft th\u00f4ng qua gi\u00e1 m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3m ho\u1eb7c gi\u00e1 m\u00f9a h\u00e8 t\u0103ng \u2013 t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 73% \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt arbitrage th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c phi\u00ean b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 truy c\u1eadp th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 n\u00e2ng cao c\u1ee7a Pocket Option, cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft c\u00f3 c\u01a1 s\u1edf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng li\u00ean quan duy tr\u00ec c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n theo th\u1eddi gian.<\/p><\/div>[cta_button text=\"\"]<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>K\u1ebft Lu\u1eadn: T\u1ed5ng H\u1ee3p C\u00e1c T\u00edn Hi\u1ec7u To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc th\u00e0nh Quy\u1ebft \u0110\u1ecbnh Giao D\u1ecbch<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i t\u00edch h\u1ee3p nhi\u1ec1u m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t khung ph\u00e2n t\u00edch g\u1eafn k\u1ebft. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb n\u00e0o cung c\u1ea5p th\u00f4ng tin ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh \u2013 thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00ednh s\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ed1i \u01b0u k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'><ul class='po-article-page-list'><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ee7 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch 5 n\u0103m (tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 40%) \u2013 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t (r = -0.88)<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>\u0110\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed9 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 (tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 25%) \u2013 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u00f4ng qua m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong suy gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p (tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 15%) \u2013 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o 4-6 th\u00e1ng<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ecbch v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ch\u00e9o h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a (tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 10%) \u2013 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y gi\u00e1 trong c\u00e1c m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung-c\u1ea7u (tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 10%) \u2013 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi nhi\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p, ch\u00fang t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb n\u00e0o. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, khi m\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 85% so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m n\u0103m (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1) trong khi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t cho th\u1ea5y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c thay th\u1ebf (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1) v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n nhu c\u1ea7u s\u01b0\u1edfi \u1ea5m tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1), x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 83% d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1eabu l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng giao d\u1ecbch nh\u01b0 Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tinh vi c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y, cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u thay v\u00ec d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1 ho\u1eb7c t\u00e2m l\u00fd. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng sinh l\u1ee3i n\u00e0y.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ban \u0111\u1ea7u c\u00f3 v\u1ebb ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch t\u1eadn t\u00e2m s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch n\u1eafm v\u1eefng c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea thay v\u00ec ph\u1ecfng \u0111o\u00e1n ho\u1eb7c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ea3m x\u00fac v\u1edbi ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1.<\/p><\/div>","body_html_source":{"label":"Body HTML","type":"wysiwyg","formatted_value":"<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Cung-C\u1ea7u \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng: N\u1ec1n T\u1ea3ng To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi &#8220;t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng&#8221; \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u00e0 \u00edt nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7. Trong khi truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 72-83%, th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean tu\u00e2n theo m\u1ed9t phi\u00ean b\u1ea3n s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cung-c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n, nh\u01b0ng v\u1edbi n\u0103m bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1eb7c th\u00f9 c\u1ee7a h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a gi\u00fap c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Bi\u1ebfn S\u1ed1<\/th>\n<th>Bi\u1ec3u Th\u1ee9c To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<th>H\u1ec7 S\u1ed1 T\u01b0\u01a1ng Quan<\/th>\n<th>Ngu\u1ed3n D\u1eef Li\u1ec7u<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t (P)<\/td>\n<td>S\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i bcf\/ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>-0.83 (ngh\u1ecbch)<\/td>\n<td>B\u00e1o c\u00e1o EIA 914 &amp; m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Ti\u00eau Th\u1ee5 (C)<\/td>\n<td>Nhu c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i bcf\/ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>+0.91 (thu\u1eadn)<\/td>\n<td>D\u1eef li\u1ec7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 theo ng\u00e0nh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>M\u1ee9c D\u1ef1 Tr\u1eef (S)<\/td>\n<td>Bcf hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i trong kho<\/td>\n<td>-0.76 (ngh\u1ecbch)<\/td>\n<td>B\u00e1o c\u00e1o d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a EIA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 L\u1ec7ch D\u1ef1 Tr\u1eef 5 N\u0103m (D)<\/td>\n<td>(Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i &#8211; trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m)\/trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m<\/td>\n<td>-0.88 (ngh\u1ecbch)<\/td>\n<td>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n t\u1eeb d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 C\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110\u1ed9 Th\u1eddi Ti\u1ebft (W)<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch HDD+CDD so v\u1edbi chu\u1ea9n<\/td>\n<td>+0.72 (thu\u1eadn)<\/td>\n<td>Ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed9 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a NOAA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00fang c\u00e1ch, t\u00edch h\u1ee3p n\u0103m bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 72% trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 theo h\u01b0\u1edbng trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian 14-21 ng\u00e0y. B\u1ea3ng \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e2ng cao c\u1ee7a Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 th\u00f4ng qua c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o t\u00f9y ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>L\u1ee3i th\u1ebf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1ch c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c theo c\u00e1ch nh\u00e2n ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i c\u1ed9ng. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, gi\u1ea3m 10% s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1o ra t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i so v\u1edbi chu\u1ea9n n\u0103m n\u0103m:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u0110\u1ed9 L\u1ec7ch D\u1ef1 Tr\u1eef<\/th>\n<th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 Ch\u00ednh X\u00e1c t\u1eeb Gi\u1ea3m 10% S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t<\/th>\n<th>V\u00ed D\u1ee5 L\u1ecbch S\u1eed<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>+20% (th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 5-8%<\/td>\n<td>Th\u00e1ng 4\/2020: T\u0103ng 6.2% sau khi c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m 9.8% s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>+10% (th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 nh\u1eb9)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 8-12%<\/td>\n<td>Th\u00e1ng 6\/2021: T\u0103ng 10.7% sau khi c\u00f3 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t 11.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>0% (trung b\u00ecnh)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 12-18%<\/td>\n<td>Th\u00e1ng 3\/2022: T\u0103ng 16.4% sau khi gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n cung c\u1ea5p 9.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>-10% (thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t nh\u1eb9)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 18-25%<\/td>\n<td>Th\u00e1ng 9\/2022: T\u0103ng 22.3% sau khi gi\u1ea3m 8.7% s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>-20% (thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 25-40%+<\/td>\n<td>Th\u00e1ng 12\/2022: T\u0103ng 38.6% sau khi thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t cung c\u1ea5p 11.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1c gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t gi\u1ed1ng nhau l\u1ea1i k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1 m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ng\u1eef c\u1ea3nh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc th\u00edch h\u1ee3p cung c\u1ea5p \u00edt gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Michael Chen \u0111\u00e3 ghi l\u1ea1i c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y trong nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u0103m 2022 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. \u00d4ng \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 th\u00e1ng 12\/2022 ba tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc n\u0103m bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan l\u1ecbch s\u1eed:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'>\n<ul class='po-article-page-list'>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m (h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 0.40, tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 40%)<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t delta (h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 0.25, tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 25%)<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft 30 ng\u00e0y l\u1ec7ch so v\u1edbi b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng (h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 0.20, tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 20%)<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhu c\u1ea7u ng\u00e0nh \u0111i\u1ec7n (h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 0.10, tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 10%)<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u LNG (h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 0.05, tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 5%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a Chen \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc quan tr\u1ecdng khi m\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi -12.8% so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m n\u0103m trong khi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng -1.7%. S\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u mua c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng 17 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h3 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch M\u00f9a V\u1ee5: Tr\u00edch Xu\u1ea5t C\u00e1c M\u1eabu D\u1ef1 \u0110o\u00e1n t\u1eeb Nhi\u1ec5u Gi\u00e1<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea t\u00e1ch c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean th\u00e0nh b\u1ed1n th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c m\u1eabu d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y b\u1eb1ng quan s\u00e1t th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng Ph\u00e1p T\u00ednh To\u00e1n Ch\u00ednh X\u00e1c<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u00f3ng G\u00f3p v\u00e0o Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1<\/th>\n<th>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb D\u1ef1 \u0110o\u00e1n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Xu H\u01b0\u1edbng (T)<\/td>\n<td>L\u00e0m m\u1ecbn LOESS v\u1edbi c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 120 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>18.7% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng 3-6 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>M\u00f9a V\u1ee5 (S)<\/td>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i Fourier v\u1edbi 5 h\u00e0i<\/td>\n<td>37.4% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c m\u1eabu l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i theo l\u1ecbch<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Chu K\u1ef3 (C)<\/td>\n<td>B\u1ed9 l\u1ecdc b\u0103ng th\u00f4ng (c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 30-90 ng\u00e0y)<\/td>\n<td>28.3% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>N\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trung gian<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>D\u01b0\/Ng\u1eabu Nhi\u00ean (R)<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 &#8211; (T+S+C)<\/td>\n<td>15.6% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n &#8220;kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n&#8221; th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn quan tr\u1ecdng: bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0 84.4% c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 15.6% th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch c\u00f4 l\u1eadp c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n n\u00e0y m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n h\u00e0nh vi gi\u00e1 m\u00e0 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 cung c\u1ea5p gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, theo m\u1ed9t m\u1eabu th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng n\u0103m v\u1edbi c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu v\u1ec1 bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 h\u01a1n l\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 n\u00e0y v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Th\u1eddi Ti\u1ebft: \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Nhi\u1ec7t \u0110\u1ed9 l\u00ean Gi\u00e1<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft n\u1ed5i l\u00ean nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t. Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 r\u1eb1ng &#8220;th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft l\u1ea1nh l\u00e0m t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u,&#8221; c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i li\u00ean k\u1ebft th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed9 s\u01b0\u1edfi (HDDs) v\u00e0 ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed9 l\u00e0m m\u00e1t (CDDs) \u2013 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng y\u00eau c\u1ea7u s\u01b0\u1edfi ho\u1eb7c l\u00e0m m\u00e1t so v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 c\u01a1 s\u1edf 65\u00b0F\/18\u00b0C:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Ph\u1ea1m Vi Nhi\u1ec7t \u0110\u1ed9<\/th>\n<th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Nhu C\u1ea7u Ch\u00ednh X\u00e1c<\/th>\n<th>M\u1ed1i Quan H\u1ec7 To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u1ed9 Nh\u1ea1y Gi\u00e1<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>D\u01b0\u1edbi 30\u00b0F \/ -1\u00b0C<\/td>\n<td>Nhu c\u1ea7u s\u01b0\u1edfi cao<\/td>\n<td>+1.24 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F gi\u1ea3m tr\u00ean to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c<\/td>\n<td>+$0.07-0.12\/MMBtu m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F gi\u1ea3m<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>30-45\u00b0F \/ -1 \u0111\u1ebfn 7\u00b0C<\/td>\n<td>S\u01b0\u1edfi v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i<\/td>\n<td>+0.82 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F gi\u1ea3m tr\u00ean to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c<\/td>\n<td>+$0.04-0.08\/MMBtu m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F gi\u1ea3m<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>45-65\u00b0F \/ 7 \u0111\u1ebfn 18\u00b0C<\/td>\n<td>Nhu c\u1ea7u th\u1ea5p\/trung t\u00ednh<\/td>\n<td>\u00b10.23 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F thay \u0111\u1ed5i tr\u00ean to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c<\/td>\n<td>\u00b1$0.01-0.02\/MMBtu m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F thay \u0111\u1ed5i<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>65-85\u00b0F \/ 18 \u0111\u1ebfn 29\u00b0C<\/td>\n<td>L\u00e0m m\u00e1t v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i<\/td>\n<td>+0.57 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F t\u0103ng tr\u00ean to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c<\/td>\n<td>+$0.03-0.05\/MMBtu m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F t\u0103ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tr\u00ean 85\u00b0F \/ 29\u00b0C<\/td>\n<td>Nhu c\u1ea7u l\u00e0m m\u00e1t cao<\/td>\n<td>+0.91 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F t\u0103ng tr\u00ean to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c<\/td>\n<td>+$0.05-0.09\/MMBtu m\u1ed7i 1\u00b0F t\u0103ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1i m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 &#8220;\u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong n\u1ee5 c\u01b0\u1eddi nhu c\u1ea7u,&#8221; n\u01a1i nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ef1c \u0111oan theo c\u1ea3 hai h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft l\u1ea1nh c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n kho\u1ea3ng 36% so v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00f3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 m\u00f9a h\u00e8, ngay c\u1ea3 khi c\u00f3 c\u00e1c c\u1ef1c \u0111oan nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 sau \u0111\u00f3 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u0110\u1ed9 L\u1ec7ch Nhi\u1ec7t \u0110\u1ed9<\/th>\n<th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 D\u1ef1 Ki\u1ebfn<\/th>\n<th>Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 \u0110\u1ed9 Tin C\u1eady<\/th>\n<th>V\u00ed D\u1ee5 L\u1ecbch S\u1eed<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>-10\u00b0F tr\u00ean c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m d\u00e2n s\u1ed1<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 18.7% (giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 14 ng\u00e0y)<\/td>\n<td>82% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.82)<\/td>\n<td>Th\u00e1ng 1\/2022: -9.8\u00b0F d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 17.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>-5\u00b0F tr\u00ean c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m d\u00e2n s\u1ed1<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 9.4% (giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 14 ng\u00e0y)<\/td>\n<td>78% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.78)<\/td>\n<td>Th\u00e1ng 12\/2022: -5.2\u00b0F d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 9.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>+5\u00b0F tr\u00ean c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m d\u00e2n s\u1ed1<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 4.8% (m\u00f9a h\u00e8)<\/td>\n<td>62% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.62)<\/td>\n<td>Th\u00e1ng 7\/2022: +4.7\u00b0F d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 5.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>+10\u00b0F tr\u00ean c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m d\u00e2n s\u1ed1<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 10.2% (m\u00f9a h\u00e8)<\/td>\n<td>68% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.68)<\/td>\n<td>Th\u00e1ng 8\/2023: +9.8\u00b0F d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 11.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Sarah Johnson \u0111\u00e3 ghi l\u1ea1i thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n giao d\u1ecbch d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh trong m\u1ed9t nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00ecnh duy\u1ec7t cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 76% trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 sau c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9. H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a c\u00f4 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 724,000 \u0111\u00f4 la tr\u00ean t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n 250,000 \u0111\u00f4 la trong m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng 2021-2022 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 n\u00e0y:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'>\n<ul class='po-article-page-list'>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch h\u01a1n 8.5\u00b0F so v\u1edbi chu\u1ea9n m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 tr\u00ean 65%+ c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 l\u1edbn<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u01a1n 5 ng\u00e0y trong c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft 14 ng\u00e0y<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch x\u1ea3y ra trong c\u00e1c m\u00f9a nhu c\u1ea7u cao (th\u00e1ng 12-th\u00e1ng 2 cho s\u01b0\u1edfi, th\u00e1ng 7-th\u00e1ng 8 cho l\u00e0m m\u00e1t)<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>M\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi l\u1ec7ch h\u01a1n \u00b17.3% so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a Johnson \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft n\u00e0y l\u00ean c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung-c\u1ea7u, chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c thay \u0111\u1ed5i ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 76%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc D\u1ef1 Tr\u1eef: T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Quan Tr\u1ecdng \u0110i\u1ec1u Khi\u1ec3n Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i n\u1eafm v\u1eefng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef. M\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho b\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ec7m quan tr\u1ecdng gi\u1eefa s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 ti\u00eau th\u1ee5, v\u1edbi m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chu\u1ea9n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea nh\u1ea5t (r = -0.88).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m n\u0103m. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb n\u00e0o:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 D\u1ef1 Tr\u1eef\/Trung B\u00ecnh 5 N\u0103m<\/th>\n<th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 D\u1ef1 Ki\u1ebfn<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u1ed9 Tin C\u1eady Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea<\/th>\n<th>V\u00ed D\u1ee5 G\u1ea7n \u0110\u00e2y<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>&gt;120% (th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 l\u1edbn)<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1: -23.4% t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<td>89% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.89)<\/td>\n<td>Th\u00e1ng 5\/2020: T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 123% d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1ea3m 25.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>110-120% (th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i)<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i: -11.7% t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<td>76% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.76)<\/td>\n<td>Th\u00e1ng 4\/2021: T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 114% d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1ea3m 10.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>95-105% (g\u1ea7n trung b\u00ecnh)<\/td>\n<td>Trung t\u00ednh: \u00b14.2% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<td>63% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.63)<\/td>\n<td>Th\u00e1ng 6\/2022: T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 101% d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng +3.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>80-95% (thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i: +14.6% t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<td>72% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.72)<\/td>\n<td>Th\u00e1ng 10\/2022: T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 87% d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 16.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>&lt;80% (thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t l\u1edbn)<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng gi\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh: +37.5% t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<td>85% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady (r=0.85)<\/td>\n<td>Th\u00e1ng 12\/2022: T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 76% d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 42.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y theo m\u1ed9t \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ed3i theo h\u00e0m m\u0169 thay v\u00ec m\u1ed9t ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh. M\u1ed7i \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t d\u01b0\u1edbi 80% t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n \u2013 kho\u1ea3ng 1.4\u00d7 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 phi tuy\u1ebfn n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1ecf trong d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t l\u1ea1i k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn kh\u00f4ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Thomas Wilson \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 th\u00e1ng 12\/2022 26 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi n\u00f3 x\u1ea3y ra. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 &#8220;ng\u00e0y b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m&#8221; quan tr\u1ecdng m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p theo d\u00f5i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u00e1m \u1ea3nh:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n T\u00ednh To\u00e1n<\/th>\n<th>C\u00f4ng Th\u1ee9c Ch\u00ednh X\u00e1c<\/th>\n<th>V\u00ed D\u1ee5 Th\u00e1ng 12\/2022<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Kh\u00ed Ho\u1ea1t \u0110\u1ed9ng trong D\u1ef1 Tr\u1eef<\/td>\n<td>T\u1ed3n kho hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o b\u1edfi EIA<\/td>\n<td>2,694 Bcf<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ti\u00eau Th\u1ee5 H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y Cao \u0110i\u1ec3m<\/td>\n<td>Nhu c\u1ea7u h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y t\u1ed1i \u0111a l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/td>\n<td>128.7 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y (cao \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t Hi\u1ec7n T\u1ea1i<\/td>\n<td>S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u00ed kh\u00f4 h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>94.3 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>C\u00e2n B\u1eb1ng H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y R\u00f2ng<\/td>\n<td>S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t &#8211; Ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 cao \u0111i\u1ec3m<\/td>\n<td>94.3 &#8211; 128.7 = -34.4 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ng\u00e0y B\u1ea3o Hi\u1ec3m<\/td>\n<td>D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u00f7 Thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>2,694 \u00f7 34.4 = 78.3 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 \u00c1p L\u1ef1c Gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef\/Trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m<\/td>\n<td>2,694\/3,523 = 76.5% (r\u1ea5t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Wilson \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng khi ng\u00e0y b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 80 trong khi d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 80% so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m n\u0103m, gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 35-45% trong v\u00f2ng 30-45 ng\u00e0y. Thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u mua c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady cao v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 17 th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2022 \u2013 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 26 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 gi\u00e1 ng\u00e0y 13 th\u00e1ng 12 khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng 42.3% trong ba tu\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng Cong Suy Gi\u1ea3m S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t: D\u1ef1 B\u00e1o H\u1ea1n Ch\u1ebf Cung C\u1ea5p<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi xem x\u00e9t t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng, to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n quan tr\u1ecdng m\u00e0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch b\u00e1n l\u1ebb ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n b\u1ecf l\u1ee1. C\u00e1c gi\u1ebfng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean tu\u00e2n theo c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong suy gi\u1ea3m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea cho ph\u00e9p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o cung c\u1ea5p ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nhi\u1ec1u th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh suy gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n tu\u00e2n theo m\u1ed9t h\u00e0m hyperbolic \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1ch s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n theo th\u1eddi gian:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Tham S\u1ed1 Suy Gi\u1ea3m<\/th>\n<th>C\u00f4ng Th\u1ee9c To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<th>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb \u0110i\u1ec3n H\u00ecnh (Kh\u00ed \u0110\u00e1 Phi\u1ebfn)<\/th>\n<th>\u1ee8ng D\u1ee5ng D\u1ef1 B\u00e1o<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t Ban \u0110\u1ea7u (IP)<\/td>\n<td>qi&nbsp;(s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ban \u0111\u1ea7u)<\/td>\n<td>4.7-11.3 MMcf\/ng\u00e0y m\u1ed7i gi\u1ebfng<\/td>\n<td>\u0110i\u1ec3m b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u cho t\u00ednh to\u00e1n suy gi\u1ea3m<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Suy Gi\u1ea3m Ban \u0110\u1ea7u<\/td>\n<td>Di&nbsp;(t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean)<\/td>\n<td>65-78% t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 suy gi\u1ea3m h\u00e0ng n\u0103m<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 d\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ban \u0111\u1ea7u<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>S\u1ed1 M\u0169 Hyperbolic<\/td>\n<td>h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 b (tham s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed9 cong)<\/td>\n<td>0.5-1.3 cho c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh t\u1ea1o kh\u00ed \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn<\/td>\n<td>C\u00e1ch t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 suy gi\u1ea3m \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh nhanh ch\u00f3ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m t<\/td>\n<td>q(t) = qi&nbsp;\/ (1 + bDit)1\/b<\/td>\n<td>S\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n t\u1ea1i th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3<\/td>\n<td>D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ng\u00e0y n\u00e0o trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong suy gi\u1ea3m n\u00e0y tr\u00ean h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0n gi\u1ebfng trong khi k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh m\u1edbi, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t 3-6 th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi ch\u00fang \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1. Khi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng khoan ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i, s\u1ef1 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m gi\u1ebfng hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi tr\u1eeb khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh m\u1edbi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Rebecca Zhang \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd c\u1ee7a s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0o gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 2022 m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 gi\u00e1 cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a c\u00f4 ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'>\n<ul class='po-article-page-list'>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>C\u00e1c gi\u1ebfng kh\u00ed \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn trung b\u00ecnh suy gi\u1ea3m 67.4% trong n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, 38.7% trong n\u0103m th\u1ee9 hai, v\u00e0 25.4% trong n\u0103m th\u1ee9 ba (d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1eabu 7,834 gi\u1ebfng)<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Y\u00eau c\u1ea7u khoan b\u1ea3o tr\u00ec ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 247 gi\u1ebfng m\u1edbi m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u1eb3ng (\u00b112 gi\u1ebfng sai s\u1ed1)<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>M\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t khi khoan gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 229 gi\u1ebfng h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng trong 3+ th\u00e1ng li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Trung b\u00ecnh 137 ng\u00e0y tr\u1ec5 gi\u1eefa thay \u0111\u1ed5i ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng khoan v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng khoan gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng trung b\u00ecnh 216 gi\u1ebfng m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng trong Q1 2022 (d\u01b0\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng thay th\u1ebf quan tr\u1ecdng), m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Zhang d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u1ec7 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 7\/2022 \u2013 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c khi s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 gi\u00e1 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 $8.00\/MMBtu. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf l\u1edbn so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ch\u1ec9 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng xem x\u00e9t v\u1eadt l\u00fd suy gi\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h3 class='po-article-page__title'>M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh \u0110\u00e0n H\u1ed3i: \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee8ng v\u1edbi T\u00edn Hi\u1ec7u Gi\u00e1<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>M\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn tinh vi \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i \u2013 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1. Khung ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 t\u1ea1i sao kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean tr\u1ea3i qua bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ef1c \u0111oan so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Ph\u00e2n Kh\u00fac Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/th>\n<th>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb \u0110\u00e0n H\u1ed3i Gi\u00e1<\/th>\n<th>Th\u1eddi Gian Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee8ng<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u00f3ng G\u00f3p Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng Ph\u00e1p T\u00ednh To\u00e1n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Ng\u01b0\u1eddi Ti\u00eau D\u00f9ng D\u00e2n C\u01b0<\/td>\n<td>-0.12 (r\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i)<\/td>\n<td>6-18 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao<\/td>\n<td>Thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhu c\u1ea7u ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m \u00f7 thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ng\u01b0\u1eddi Ti\u00eau D\u00f9ng C\u00f4ng Nghi\u1ec7p<\/td>\n<td>-0.83 (\u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i)<\/td>\n<td>1-6 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n \u0111o t\u1eeb d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Nh\u00e0 S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t \u0110i\u1ec7n<\/td>\n<td>-1.74 (\u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i)<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u1edd \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ea5p<\/td>\n<td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch tia l\u1eeda<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Nh\u00e0 S\u1ea3n Xu\u1ea5t (Cung C\u1ea5p)<\/td>\n<td>0.23 (kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n)<\/td>\n<td>4-12 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t so v\u1edbi thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1 duy tr\u00ec<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc t\u1ea1i sao kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean tr\u1ea3i qua nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 k\u1ecbch t\u00ednh nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. V\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u d\u00e2n c\u01b0 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (\u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i -0.12) v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t b\u1ecb tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 (\u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i 0.23), c\u00e1c m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft nhanh ch\u00f3ng th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Alex Rivera \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u00e1c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch cung-c\u1ea7u. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch theo d\u00f5i t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c trong m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0nh v\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>V\u00ed d\u1ee5, trong th\u00e1ng 1\/2023, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi 48.7% ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng d\u00e2n c\u01b0\/th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i (\u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i -0.12 \u0111\u1ebfn -0.28), m\u1ed9t thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t cung c\u1ea5p 9.8% y\u00eau c\u1ea7u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 67.3% \u0111\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra \u0111\u1ee7 gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng. D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng: m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa +62% v\u00e0 +72% \u2013 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 +68.7% trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 14 ng\u00e0y.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Arbitrage Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea: X\u00e1c \u0110\u1ecbnh S\u1ef1 \u0110\u1ecbnh Gi\u00e1 Sai To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean quan. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u00edch h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 sai to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ecbch cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. Trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng, c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean cho c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng giao h\u00e0ng kh\u00e1c nhau duy tr\u00ec c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean chi ph\u00ed mang v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u1eabu m\u00f9a v\u1ee5. Khi c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y l\u1ec7ch \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chu\u1ea9n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>M\u1ed1i Quan H\u1ec7 Ch\u00eanh L\u1ec7ch<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u1ea1m Vi Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea B\u00ecnh Th\u01b0\u1eddng<\/th>\n<th>T\u00edn Hi\u1ec7u H\u1ed3i Quy Trung B\u00ecnh<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u1ed9 Ch\u00ednh X\u00e1c L\u1ecbch S\u1eed<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Ch\u00eanh L\u1ec7ch M\u00f9a H\u00e8\/M\u00f9a \u0110\u00f4ng<\/td>\n<td>-17% \u0111\u1ebfn -24% (ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng)<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ngo\u00e0i ph\u1ea1m vi h\u1ed3i quy v\u1ec1 trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<td>82% \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c (271 trong 331 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ch\u00eanh L\u1ec7ch Th\u00e1ng-T\u1edbi-Th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>1.2-2.8% trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng m\u00f9a v\u1ee5<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb &gt;4.5% \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m<\/td>\n<td>76% \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c (187 trong 246 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Th\u00e1ng Tr\u01b0\u1edbc\/6 Th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<td>\u00b18.3% t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o m\u00f9a<\/td>\n<td>&gt;15% l\u1ec7ch so v\u1edbi chu\u1ea9n m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 h\u1ed3i quy<\/td>\n<td>79% \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c (203 trong 257 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean\/D\u1ea7u Th\u00f4<\/td>\n<td>14-18 Mcf\/bbl t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb &lt;10 ho\u1eb7c &gt;25 h\u1ed3i quy v\u1ec1 trung b\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<td>71% \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c (155 trong 218 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Jennifer Park \u0111\u00e3 ghi l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh arbitrage th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1eafng 73% \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 tr\u00ean 143 giao d\u1ecbch ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ecbch trong 27 th\u00e1ng. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a c\u00f4:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'>\n<ol class='po-article-page-list'>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n z-score cho m\u1ed7i ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch quan tr\u1ecdng so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chu\u1ea9n m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 5 n\u0103m (\u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a)<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch c\u00f3 z-score v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 \u00b12.0, \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea 95th percentile<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c b\u1ed9 l\u1ecdc b\u1ed5 sung: \u0111\u1ee7 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Tham gia c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc (d\u1eebng t\u1ea1i z-score \u00b13.0)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Park ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c l\u1ec7ch ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch c\u1ef1c \u0111oan th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp theo h\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, khi c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng giao d\u1ecbch \u1edf m\u1ee9c ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m cao b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng so v\u1edbi m\u00f9a h\u00e8 (z-score &gt;2.0), s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft th\u00f4ng qua gi\u00e1 m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3m ho\u1eb7c gi\u00e1 m\u00f9a h\u00e8 t\u0103ng \u2013 t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 73% \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt arbitrage th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c phi\u00ean b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 truy c\u1eadp th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 n\u00e2ng cao c\u1ee7a Pocket Option, cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft c\u00f3 c\u01a1 s\u1edf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng li\u00ean quan duy tr\u00ec c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n theo th\u1eddi gian.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n    <div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article\">\n        <a href=\"\/en\/quick-start\/\" class=\"po-line-banner po-article-page__line-banner\">\n            <svg class=\"svg-image po-line-banner__logo\" fill=\"currentColor\" width=\"auto\" height=\"auto\"\n                 aria-hidden=\"true\">\n                <use href=\"#svg-img-logo-white\"><\/use>\n            <\/svg>\n            <span class=\"po-line-banner__btn\"><\/span>\n        <\/a>\n    <\/div>\n    \n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>K\u1ebft Lu\u1eadn: T\u1ed5ng H\u1ee3p C\u00e1c T\u00edn Hi\u1ec7u To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc th\u00e0nh Quy\u1ebft \u0110\u1ecbnh Giao D\u1ecbch<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Hi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i t\u00edch h\u1ee3p nhi\u1ec1u m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t khung ph\u00e2n t\u00edch g\u1eafn k\u1ebft. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb n\u00e0o cung c\u1ea5p th\u00f4ng tin ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh \u2013 thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00ednh s\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ed1i \u01b0u k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'>\n<ul class='po-article-page-list'>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ee7 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch 5 n\u0103m (tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 40%) \u2013 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t (r = -0.88)<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>\u0110\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed9 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 (tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 25%) \u2013 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u00f4ng qua m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong suy gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p (tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 15%) \u2013 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o 4-6 th\u00e1ng<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ecbch v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ch\u00e9o h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a (tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 10%) \u2013 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y gi\u00e1 trong c\u00e1c m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung-c\u1ea7u (tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 10%) \u2013 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Khi nhi\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p, ch\u00fang t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb n\u00e0o. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, khi m\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 85% so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m n\u0103m (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1) trong khi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t cho th\u1ea5y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c thay th\u1ebf (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1) v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n nhu c\u1ea7u s\u01b0\u1edfi \u1ea5m tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng (t\u0103ng gi\u00e1), x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 83% d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1eabu l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng giao d\u1ecbch nh\u01b0 Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tinh vi c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y, cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u thay v\u00ec d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1 ho\u1eb7c t\u00e2m l\u00fd. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng sinh l\u1ee3i n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ban \u0111\u1ea7u c\u00f3 v\u1ebb ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch t\u1eadn t\u00e2m s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch n\u1eafm v\u1eefng c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea thay v\u00ec ph\u1ecfng \u0111o\u00e1n ho\u1eb7c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ea3m x\u00fac v\u1edbi ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n"},"faq":[{"question":"Nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0o d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"Ba ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea li\u00ean t\u1ee5c v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i h\u01a1n t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. \u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch l\u01b0u tr\u1eef so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m cho th\u1ea5y h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t (r = -0.88), cung c\u1ea5p n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea cho d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1, v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i m\u1ee9c th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t l\u01b0u tr\u1eef 5% d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 4.7-7.3% t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5. T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t delta ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng 72% trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian 3-5 th\u00e1ng, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd khi s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng thay th\u1ebf quan tr\u1ecdng 2.1% c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp cho c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong suy gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean. Ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed9 s\u01b0\u1edfi\/l\u00e0m m\u00e1t theo tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 cho th\u1ea5y 78% t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong th\u00e1ng 12-th\u00e1ng 2 v\u00e0 63% trong th\u00e1ng 6-th\u00e1ng 8, v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 10% HDD \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 l\u00ean 8.2-11.7% v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea t\u1eeb 3-7 ng\u00e0y. Khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p trong m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd (tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00e0 40\/25\/20%), ba ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1eeb 68% khi ch\u1ec9 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u01b0u tr\u1eef l\u00ean 83% khi s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u00edch h\u1ee3p, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn qua 1,273 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch t\u1eeb 2018-2023."},{"question":"D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c n\u00e0o?","answer":"\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft chuy\u1ec3n tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u1edf m\u1ed7i kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (1-5 ng\u00e0y) cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 92-97% gi\u1eefa nhu c\u1ea7u kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, t\u1ea1o ra t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady cao v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o trung h\u1ea1n (6-10 ng\u00e0y) duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 75-85% trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ti\u00eau th\u1ee5, t\u1ea1o ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 giao d\u1ecbch nh\u01b0ng \u00edt \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady h\u01a1n, \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc theo m\u1ed9t h\u00e0m phi tuy\u1ebfn, v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m 1\u00b0F d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0o m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean kho\u1ea3ng 1,24 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n l\u1ea1nh kh\u1eafc nghi\u1ec7t (<30\u00b0F) so v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 0,82 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n l\u1ea1nh v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i (30-45\u00b0F). C\u00e1c b\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u1ed5 h\u1ee3p, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p h\u01a1n 41 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec3m s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c l\u1ecbch s\u1eed theo khu v\u1ef1c v\u00e0 khung th\u1eddi gian, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 l\u00ean 23,7% so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb theo d\u1eef li\u1ec7u hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c minh t\u1eeb ba c\u00f4ng ty giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2020-2023."},{"question":"M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0o t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i gi\u1eefa m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3?","answer":"M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa t\u1ed3n kho kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 tu\u00e2n theo m\u1ed9t h\u00e0m s\u1ed1 m\u0169 phi tuy\u1ebfn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c thay v\u00ec m\u1ed9t t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ed3i quy th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed7i \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m t\u1ea1o ra t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn khi th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t t\u0103ng l\u00ean - m\u1ed9t thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ed3i. Khi t\u1ed3n kho \u0111\u1ea1t 90-100% m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m, m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m 1% t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 trung b\u00ecnh 0,94%. \u1ede m\u1ee9c 80-90% trung b\u00ecnh, m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m 1% k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 1,87%. D\u01b0\u1edbi 80% trung b\u00ecnh, m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m 1% d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 3,42% khi ph\u00ed khan hi\u1ebfm t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c theo c\u1ea5p s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t khi xem x\u00e9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \"ng\u00e0y bao ph\u1ee7\" (t\u1ed3n kho chia cho th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y). Khi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 30 ng\u00e0y trong m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng cao \u0111i\u1ec3m, \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng ba l\u1ea7n, v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1ecf trong t\u1ed3n kho k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng l\u1edbn. \u0110i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc th\u01b0\u1eddng x\u1ea3y ra \u1edf m\u1ee9c 82-85% c\u1ee7a m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m, \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng m\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ee7 sang lo ng\u1ea1i khan hi\u1ebfm ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 phi tuy\u1ebfn n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1ed3n kho d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 nh\u1ecf trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn kh\u00f4ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng x\u1ee9ng m\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch."},{"question":"Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong suy gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?","answer":"Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong suy gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t cung c\u1ea5p n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf cung c\u1ea5p t\u1eeb 4-9 th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi ch\u00fang \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 -- s\u1edbm h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng. H\u00e0m suy gi\u1ea3m hyperbolic ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n (q(t) = q\u2081\/(1 + bD\u2081t)^(1\/b)) \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c gi\u1ebfng kh\u00ed \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u1ea3m 67,4% trong n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, 38,7% trong n\u0103m th\u1ee9 hai v\u00e0 25,4% trong n\u0103m th\u1ee9 ba, t\u1ea1o ra t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 suy gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n kho\u1ea3ng 27,3% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh m\u1edbi. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \"y\u00eau c\u1ea7u khoan b\u1ea3o tr\u00ec\" (s\u1ed1 gi\u1ebfng c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp suy gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean), c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh khi n\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c thay th\u1ebf, \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc s\u1ef1 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 cung c\u1ea5p c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o s\u1edbm tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2022, khi s\u1ed1 gi\u1ebfng m\u1edbi ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh v\u1eabn th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 22,7% so v\u1edbi y\u00eau c\u1ea7u thay th\u1ebf trong b\u1ed1n th\u00e1ng li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 trung b\u00ecnh 137 ng\u00e0y gi\u1eefa thay \u0111\u1ed5i ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng khoan v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m 10% d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c b\u1ea3o tr\u00ec cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1ea3m 2,7% s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 kho\u1ea3ng 9,8%, gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh nhu c\u1ea7u \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd khi k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng, ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n thay \u0111\u1ed5i s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf 18-24 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi b\u00e1o c\u00e1o ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a EIA, cung c\u1ea5p t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n n\u00e0o th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a kh\u00e1c?","answer":"Kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng, gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00ednh kh\u00e1c. \u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cung ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n ch\u1ec9 \u0111o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 0,12-0,28, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 10% ch\u1ec9 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng cung 1,2-2,8% trong v\u00f2ng 30 ng\u00e0y -- th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 l\u00e0 0,35-0,45. \u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n c\u1ea7u thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 theo t\u1eebng ng\u00e0nh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c: ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng d\u00e2n c\u01b0 cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 b\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0 -0,12 trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng, ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 -0,83, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec7n th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cao l\u00e0 -1,74 th\u00f4ng qua kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u. Trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n nhu c\u1ea7u cao \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng, kho\u1ea3ng 48,7% ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng d\u00e2n c\u01b0\/th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n r\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p, t\u1ea1o ra y\u00eau c\u1ea7u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc cho c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ef1c \u0111oan \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf cung. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i n\u00e0y l\u00e0m cho kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng g\u1ea5p 3,7 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 v\u00e0 g\u1ea5p 6,2 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m d\u1ea7u tinh ch\u1ebf m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1. Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n cung 10% trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n nhu c\u1ea7u cao \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 67-75% \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng th\u00f4ng qua s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1 h\u1ee7y c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n, so v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 15-25% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a kh\u00e1c. C\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 duy tr\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed gi\u00e1, x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng ch\u00fang \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi."}],"faq_source":{"label":"FAQ","type":"repeater","formatted_value":[{"question":"Nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0o d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"Ba ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea li\u00ean t\u1ee5c v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i h\u01a1n t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. \u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch l\u01b0u tr\u1eef so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m cho th\u1ea5y h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t (r = -0.88), cung c\u1ea5p n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea cho d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1, v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i m\u1ee9c th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t l\u01b0u tr\u1eef 5% d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 4.7-7.3% t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5. T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t delta ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng 72% trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian 3-5 th\u00e1ng, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd khi s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng thay th\u1ebf quan tr\u1ecdng 2.1% c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp cho c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong suy gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean. Ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed9 s\u01b0\u1edfi\/l\u00e0m m\u00e1t theo tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 cho th\u1ea5y 78% t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong th\u00e1ng 12-th\u00e1ng 2 v\u00e0 63% trong th\u00e1ng 6-th\u00e1ng 8, v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 10% HDD \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 l\u00ean 8.2-11.7% v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea t\u1eeb 3-7 ng\u00e0y. Khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p trong m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd (tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00e0 40\/25\/20%), ba ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1eeb 68% khi ch\u1ec9 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u01b0u tr\u1eef l\u00ean 83% khi s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u00edch h\u1ee3p, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn qua 1,273 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch t\u1eeb 2018-2023."},{"question":"D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c n\u00e0o?","answer":"\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft chuy\u1ec3n tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u1edf m\u1ed7i kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (1-5 ng\u00e0y) cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 92-97% gi\u1eefa nhu c\u1ea7u kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, t\u1ea1o ra t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady cao v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o trung h\u1ea1n (6-10 ng\u00e0y) duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 75-85% trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ti\u00eau th\u1ee5, t\u1ea1o ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 giao d\u1ecbch nh\u01b0ng \u00edt \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady h\u01a1n, \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc theo m\u1ed9t h\u00e0m phi tuy\u1ebfn, v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m 1\u00b0F d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0o m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean kho\u1ea3ng 1,24 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n l\u1ea1nh kh\u1eafc nghi\u1ec7t (<30\u00b0F) so v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 0,82 Bcf\/ng\u00e0y trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n l\u1ea1nh v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i (30-45\u00b0F). C\u00e1c b\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u1ed5 h\u1ee3p, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p h\u01a1n 41 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec3m s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c l\u1ecbch s\u1eed theo khu v\u1ef1c v\u00e0 khung th\u1eddi gian, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 l\u00ean 23,7% so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb theo d\u1eef li\u1ec7u hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c minh t\u1eeb ba c\u00f4ng ty giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2020-2023."},{"question":"M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0o t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i gi\u1eefa m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3?","answer":"M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa t\u1ed3n kho kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 tu\u00e2n theo m\u1ed9t h\u00e0m s\u1ed1 m\u0169 phi tuy\u1ebfn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c thay v\u00ec m\u1ed9t t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ed3i quy th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed7i \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m t\u1ea1o ra t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn khi th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t t\u0103ng l\u00ean - m\u1ed9t thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ed3i. Khi t\u1ed3n kho \u0111\u1ea1t 90-100% m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m, m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m 1% t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 trung b\u00ecnh 0,94%. \u1ede m\u1ee9c 80-90% trung b\u00ecnh, m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m 1% k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 1,87%. D\u01b0\u1edbi 80% trung b\u00ecnh, m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m 1% d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 3,42% khi ph\u00ed khan hi\u1ebfm t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c theo c\u1ea5p s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t khi xem x\u00e9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \"ng\u00e0y bao ph\u1ee7\" (t\u1ed3n kho chia cho th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y). Khi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 30 ng\u00e0y trong m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng cao \u0111i\u1ec3m, \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng ba l\u1ea7n, v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1ecf trong t\u1ed3n kho k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng l\u1edbn. \u0110i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc th\u01b0\u1eddng x\u1ea3y ra \u1edf m\u1ee9c 82-85% c\u1ee7a m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m, \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng m\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ee7 sang lo ng\u1ea1i khan hi\u1ebfm ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 phi tuy\u1ebfn n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1ed3n kho d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 nh\u1ecf trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn kh\u00f4ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng x\u1ee9ng m\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch."},{"question":"Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong suy gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?","answer":"Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong suy gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t cung c\u1ea5p n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf cung c\u1ea5p t\u1eeb 4-9 th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi ch\u00fang \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 -- s\u1edbm h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng. H\u00e0m suy gi\u1ea3m hyperbolic ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n (q(t) = q\u2081\/(1 + bD\u2081t)^(1\/b)) \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c gi\u1ebfng kh\u00ed \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u1ea3m 67,4% trong n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, 38,7% trong n\u0103m th\u1ee9 hai v\u00e0 25,4% trong n\u0103m th\u1ee9 ba, t\u1ea1o ra t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 suy gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n kho\u1ea3ng 27,3% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh m\u1edbi. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \"y\u00eau c\u1ea7u khoan b\u1ea3o tr\u00ec\" (s\u1ed1 gi\u1ebfng c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp suy gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean), c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh khi n\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c thay th\u1ebf, \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc s\u1ef1 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 cung c\u1ea5p c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o s\u1edbm tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2022, khi s\u1ed1 gi\u1ebfng m\u1edbi ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh v\u1eabn th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 22,7% so v\u1edbi y\u00eau c\u1ea7u thay th\u1ebf trong b\u1ed1n th\u00e1ng li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 trung b\u00ecnh 137 ng\u00e0y gi\u1eefa thay \u0111\u1ed5i ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng khoan v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m 10% d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c b\u1ea3o tr\u00ec cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1ea3m 2,7% s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 kho\u1ea3ng 9,8%, gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh nhu c\u1ea7u \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd khi k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng, ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n thay \u0111\u1ed5i s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf 18-24 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi b\u00e1o c\u00e1o ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a EIA, cung c\u1ea5p t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n n\u00e0o th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a kh\u00e1c?","answer":"Kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng, gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u00ednh kh\u00e1c. \u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cung ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n ch\u1ec9 \u0111o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 0,12-0,28, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 10% ch\u1ec9 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng cung 1,2-2,8% trong v\u00f2ng 30 ng\u00e0y -- th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 l\u00e0 0,35-0,45. \u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n c\u1ea7u thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 theo t\u1eebng ng\u00e0nh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c: ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng d\u00e2n c\u01b0 cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 b\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0 -0,12 trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng, ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 -0,83, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec7n th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n cao l\u00e0 -1,74 th\u00f4ng qua kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u. Trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n nhu c\u1ea7u cao \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng, kho\u1ea3ng 48,7% ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng d\u00e2n c\u01b0\/th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n r\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p, t\u1ea1o ra y\u00eau c\u1ea7u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc cho c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ef1c \u0111oan \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf cung. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i n\u00e0y l\u00e0m cho kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng g\u1ea5p 3,7 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 v\u00e0 g\u1ea5p 6,2 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m d\u1ea7u tinh ch\u1ebf m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1. Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n cung 10% trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n nhu c\u1ea7u cao \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 67-75% \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng th\u00f4ng qua s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1 h\u1ee7y c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n, so v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 15-25% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a kh\u00e1c. C\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e0n h\u1ed3i n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 duy tr\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed gi\u00e1, x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng ch\u00fang \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi."}]}},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>T\u1ea1i sao kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng: 5 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 72-83%<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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