{"id":318277,"date":"2025-07-21T06:21:07","date_gmt":"2025-07-21T06:21:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/news-events\/data\/what-happens-if-i-buy-tesla-stock-today-2\/"},"modified":"2025-07-21T06:21:07","modified_gmt":"2025-07-21T06:21:07","slug":"what-happens-if-i-buy-tesla-stock-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/vt\/knowledge-base\/learning\/what-happens-if-i-buy-tesla-stock-today\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0110i\u1ec1u G\u00ec X\u1ea3y Ra N\u1ebfu T\u00f4i Mua C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu Tesla H\u00f4m Nay: Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc V\u1ec1 K\u1ebft Qu\u1ea3"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":250614,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[28,45,44],"class_list":["post-318277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-learning","tag-investment","tag-stock","tag-strategy"],"acf":{"h1":"Pocket Option \u0110i\u1ec1u G\u00ec X\u1ea3y Ra N\u1ebfu T\u00f4i Mua C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu Tesla H\u00f4m Nay","h1_source":{"label":"H1","type":"text","formatted_value":"Pocket Option \u0110i\u1ec1u G\u00ec X\u1ea3y Ra N\u1ebfu T\u00f4i Mua C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu Tesla H\u00f4m Nay"},"description":"\u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu t\u00f4i mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu cho c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u1ea9n c\u1ea5p. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch Pocket Option c\u1ea7n nh\u1eefng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c n\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng thay \u0111\u1ed5i.","description_source":{"label":"Description","type":"textarea","formatted_value":"\u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu t\u00f4i mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu cho c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u1ea9n c\u1ea5p. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch Pocket Option c\u1ea7n nh\u1eefng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c n\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng thay \u0111\u1ed5i."},"intro":"C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \"\u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu t\u00f4i mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay\" m\u1edf ra m\u1ed9t c\u00e1nh c\u1eeda v\u00e0o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p m\u00e0 \u00edt nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i m\u00e3 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Tesla th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c khung \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n - cung c\u1ea5p cho b\u1ea1n c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 bi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng.","intro_source":{"label":"Intro","type":"text","formatted_value":"C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \"\u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu t\u00f4i mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay\" m\u1edf ra m\u1ed9t c\u00e1nh c\u1eeda v\u00e0o m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p m\u00e0 \u00edt nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3i m\u00e3 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Tesla th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c khung \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n - cung c\u1ea5p cho b\u1ea1n c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 bi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng."},"body_html":"

\u0110\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 D\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn: V\u01b0\u1ee3t qua D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0110\u1ea7u c\u01a1<\/h2><\/div>

Khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u1ecfi \"\u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu t\u00f4i mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay,\" h\u1ecd th\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00fd ki\u1ebfn ch\u1ee7 quan thay v\u00ec ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 v\u00ec bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t s\u1ed1. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c khung \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cho 3,945 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a Tesla, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bi\u1ebfn c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00ednh n\u00e0y th\u00e0nh n\u0103m k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c.<\/p><\/div>

To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1eb1ng sau k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea ch\u00ednh: ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u00e0 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 n\u00e0y v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u giao d\u1ecbch th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Tesla k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi IPO n\u0103m 2010, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft \u0111a chi\u1ec1u v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro-l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau gi\u00e1 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n ho\u1eb7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1.<\/p><\/div>

Tesla \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o do bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed 63.2% (3.2 l\u1ea7n trung b\u00ecnh S&P 500) v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1. M\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1eafn ph\u1ea3i t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty nh\u01b0 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao h\u00e0ng h\u00e0ng qu\u00fd, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt nh\u01b0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 RSI, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u00e2m l\u00fd bao g\u1ed3m t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 \u0111\u1eb7t\/mua quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn v\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 nh\u01b0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u2014 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc theo \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang trong c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd xem x\u00e9t chi ti\u1ebft.<\/p><\/div>

Th\u1eddi gian<\/th>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng L\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>Ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t<\/th>C\u00e1c Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 Quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh Ch\u00ednh<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
30 Ng\u00e0y<\/td>52.4% H\u00e0ng n\u0103m (T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2024)<\/td>Kh\u00f4ng b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng (\u0111u\u00f4i d\u00e0y) v\u1edbi kurtosis 5.82<\/td>L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn Q1 (23 th\u00e1ng 4), s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t (182K trong Q1), RSI hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 42.3<\/td><\/tr>
90 Ng\u00e0y<\/td>48.7% H\u00e0ng n\u0103m (90 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc)<\/td>\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch \u00e2m v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i (-0.42)<\/td>Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t Q2, quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Fed (th\u00e1ng 5\/th\u00e1ng 6), xu h\u01b0\u1edbng xoay v\u00f2ng ng\u00e0nh<\/td><\/tr>
1 N\u0103m<\/td>63.2% H\u00e0ng n\u0103m (1 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc)<\/td>Log-normal v\u1edbi kurtosis cao (5.82)<\/td>C\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t (m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 2M \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb trong 2024), xu h\u01b0\u1edbng bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn (18.2% trong Q4 2023)<\/td><\/tr>
3 N\u0103m<\/td>71.5% H\u00e0ng n\u0103m (3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc)<\/td>Ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i hai \u0111\u1ec9nh (hai k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec9nh kh\u00e1c nhau)<\/td>Th\u1eddi gian ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n FSD, t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng Cybertruck, c\u1ea1nh tranh t\u1eeb c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t EV Trung Qu\u1ed1c<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch t\u00edch c\u1ef1c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng nh\u01b0 Pocket Option, hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 cho c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi gian ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn h\u1ebft h\u1ea1n t\u1eeb 1 ph\u00fat \u0111\u1ebfn 15 ph\u00fat c\u1ee7a Pocket Option ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a Tesla \u0111\u1ec3 quay l\u1ea1i trung b\u00ecnh sau c\u00e1c c\u1ef1c \u0111oan RSI, m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 63% qua 124 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t bi\u1ebfn c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 \"t\u00f4i c\u00f3 n\u00ean mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla\" th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t khung c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed v\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.<\/p><\/div>

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t: T\u00ednh to\u00e1n Ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Tesla<\/h2><\/div>

\u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu t\u00f4i mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng th\u00f4ng qua m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Tesla t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2010. Thay v\u00ec \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 duy nh\u1ea5t, c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y t\u00ednh to\u00e1n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00e1c nhau d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean 3,945 ng\u00e0y l\u1ecbch s\u1eed giao d\u1ecbch. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t b\u1ee9c tranh ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng thay v\u00ec m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o duy nh\u1ea5t b\u1ecf qua x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u1ecbch s\u1eed 40% c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.<\/p><\/div>

L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a Tesla cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i kh\u00f4ng b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecf qua. C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n kurtosis d\u01b0\u01a1ng (5.82 so v\u1edbi 3.0 c\u1ee7a ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng) v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan x\u1ea3y ra th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, Tesla \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua 14 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 \u00b110% trong hai n\u0103m qua, so v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi S&P 500.<\/p><\/div>

X\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Tesla<\/h3><\/div>

\u0110\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Tesla, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ph\u00e2n t\u00edch 14 n\u0103m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng qua m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ph\u00e9p \u0111o th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea. Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn logarit h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y (kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i thay \u0111\u1ed5i ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n), \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3nh kh\u1eafc th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang (trung b\u00ecnh, \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n, \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch, kurtosis), v\u00e0 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i th\u00edch h\u1ee3p n\u1eafm b\u1eaft h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u1ee7a Tesla qua c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1c nhau.<\/p><\/div>

Ph\u00e9p \u0111o Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea<\/th>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb Tesla<\/th>So s\u00e1nh S&P 500<\/th>\u00dd ngh\u0129a To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn Trung b\u00ecnh H\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y<\/td>0.18% (45% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m)<\/td>0.05% (12.5% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m)<\/td>T\u00e2m c\u1ee7a ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n cho bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y<\/td><\/tr>
\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch Chu\u1ea9n<\/td>3.31% h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y (52.4% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m)<\/td>0.98% h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y (15.5% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m)<\/td>Th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o ph\u00e2n t\u00e1n, ch\u1ec9 ra 68% l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn n\u1eb1m trong \u00b13.31% h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y<\/td><\/tr>
\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch<\/td>0.37 (d\u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u1eb9)<\/td>-0.42 (\u00e2m)<\/td>Th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u1ec9 ra nhi\u1ec1u ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7 d\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan h\u01a1n \u00e2m<\/td><\/tr>
Kurtosis<\/td>5.82 (leptokurtic)<\/td>3.21 (g\u1ea7n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng)<\/td>Th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o \u0111u\u00f4i, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cao ch\u1ec9 ra c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean h\u01a1n (c\u1ea3 l\u00ean v\u00e0 xu\u1ed1ng)<\/td><\/tr>
T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Sharpe (3 n\u0103m)<\/td>0.92<\/td>0.73<\/td>Th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro, t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u00e0 (l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn - t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng r\u1ee7i ro) \u00f7 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c n\u00e0y, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cho th\u1ea5y kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kh\u00e1c nhau khi h\u1ecfi \"\u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu t\u00f4i mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay.\" \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef 90 ng\u00e0y b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb gi\u00e1 h\u00f4m nay l\u00e0 $177, ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 m\u1ed9t h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 r\u1ee7i ro-l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng v\u1edbi 42% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 5%, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 13% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 15% - th\u00f4ng tin quan tr\u1ecdng cho vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1eafn.<\/p><\/div>

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Pocket Option, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o quan tr\u1ecdng cho c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, hi\u1ec3u r\u1eb1ng Tesla c\u00f3 17% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 $203 trong v\u00f2ng 90 ng\u00e0y gi\u00fap x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p cho c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1. C\u00e1c t\u00ednh n\u0103ng qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng cho ph\u00e9p b\u1ea1n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac \u0111\u1ebfn 1-2% v\u1ed1n m\u1ed7i giao d\u1ecbch d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean 13% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.<\/p><\/div>

K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 90 Ng\u00e0y<\/th>Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng<\/th>Ph\u1ea1m vi M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau Gi\u00e1<\/th>\u00dd ngh\u0129a Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
R\u1ea5t Ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c (>-20%)<\/td>8%<\/td>$112 - $142<\/td>\u0110\u1eb7t d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 t\u1ea1i $145 (18% d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c v\u00e0o) \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t<\/td><\/tr>
Ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c V\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i (-10% \u0111\u1ebfn -20%)<\/td>18%<\/td>$142 - $160<\/td>Xem x\u00e9t v\u1ecb tr\u00ed m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n (40-50% ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 d\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh) v\u1edbi v\u1ed1n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec3 trung b\u00ecnh gi\u1ea3m<\/td><\/tr>
H\u01a1i Ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c (-10% \u0111\u1ebfn 0%)<\/td>32%<\/td>$160 - $177<\/td>K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra nh\u1ea5t; x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi v\u1ed1n cho 25% t\u00edch l\u0169y b\u1ed5 sung<\/td><\/tr>
V\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i T\u00edch c\u1ef1c (0% \u0111\u1ebfn +15%)<\/td>25%<\/td>$177 - $203<\/td>\u0110\u1eb7t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ban \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1ea1i $200 v\u1edbi d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 theo sau \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng<\/td><\/tr>
R\u1ea5t T\u00edch c\u1ef1c (>+15%)<\/td>17%<\/td>$203+<\/td>Th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 theo sau 25% tr\u00ean $203 \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

*M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Tesla l\u00e0 $177 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2024<\/p><\/div>

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng: \u0110\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh R\u1ee7i ro-L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Tesla<\/h2><\/div>

Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0o khi xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \"c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla c\u00f3 n\u00ean mua kh\u00f4ng\". Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nhi\u1ec1u c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu S&P 500 theo c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1edbi dao \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng n\u0103m 15-20%, Tesla th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1eeb 30% \u0111\u1ebfn 120% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn. H\u1ed3 s\u01a1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng trong 90 ng\u00e0y b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea1m vi gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u00b132% \u1edf m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n.<\/p><\/div>

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a Tesla ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n. C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu chu k\u1ef3 qua c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i y\u00ean t\u0129nh (bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng n\u0103m 30-40%) v\u00e0 c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n (bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng n\u0103m 80-120%), th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t b\u1edfi c\u00e1c ch\u1ea5t x\u00fac t\u00e1c c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt l\u00ean 112% v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2020 trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng COVID, gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng 38% v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2021 t\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec9nh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a Tesla, sau \u0111\u00f3 t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i l\u00ean 85% trong \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103m 2022.<\/p><\/div>

  • Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Tesla li\u00ean t\u1ee5c v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd t\u1eeb 12-18%, t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 sai quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p khai th\u00e1c th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/li>
  • Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt 3-5 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, sau \u0111\u00f3 ho\u1eb7c s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 ho\u1eb7c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2024, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd c\u1ee7a Tesla t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 47% l\u00ean 68% trong b\u1ed1n ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn Q4 2023, sau \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 xu\u1ed1ng 41% sau b\u00e1o c\u00e1o<\/li>
  • C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt t\u1eeb c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t l\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 40-65% trong bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf 30 ng\u00e0y, nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5y v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2023 khi Tesla ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea1m vi 6 tu\u1ea7n v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 42% l\u00ean 68%<\/li>
  • Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh quay l\u1ea1i trung b\u00ecnh trong c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 45-60 ng\u00e0y, tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 l\u00e0 63.2% sau c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ef1c \u0111oan theo c\u1ea3 hai h\u01b0\u1edbng<\/li><\/ul><\/div>

    \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \"t\u00f4i c\u00f3 n\u00ean b\u00e1n c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla\" ho\u1eb7c duy tr\u00ec v\u1ecb tr\u00ed, c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh quan tr\u1ecdng. Ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i (52.4% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2024) n\u1eb1m d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a Tesla, cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i cho c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c mua quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn thay v\u00ec b\u00e1n quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn. M\u1ee9c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 ra k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p l\u00e0 4-5% gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ecbu r\u1ee7i ro v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i, so v\u1edbi 2-3% trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao.<\/p><\/div>

    Th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/th>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/th>Ph\u00e2n v\u1ecb L\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>Di\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf 10 Ng\u00e0y<\/td>47.8% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m<\/td>Ph\u00e2n v\u1ecb 35 (d\u01b0\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh)<\/td>Giao d\u1ecbch g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 y\u00ean t\u0129nh h\u01a1n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng, cho th\u1ea5y kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td><\/tr>
    Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng Ng\u1ee5 \u00fd 30 Ng\u00e0y<\/td>52.4% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m<\/td>Ph\u00e2n v\u1ecb 42 (h\u01a1i d\u01b0\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh)<\/td>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i qua l\u1ea7n c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ti\u1ebfp theo<\/td><\/tr>
    Ph\u00ed B\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>4.6% (IV - RV)<\/td>Ph\u00e2n v\u1ecb 60 (h\u01a1i \u0111\u1eaft)<\/td>Quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn h\u01a1i b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao so v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y<\/td><\/tr>
    D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o GARCH(1,1)<\/td>58.2% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m<\/td>Ph\u00e2n v\u1ecb 55 (trung b\u00ecnh)<\/td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u0103ng trong nh\u1eefng tu\u1ea7n t\u1edbi<\/td><\/tr>
    Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>112% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m<\/td>Ph\u00e2n v\u1ecb 73 (cao)<\/td>S\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn cao v\u1ec1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

    S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, n\u1ebfu kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ecbu r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n cho ph\u00e9p m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1i \u0111a 1% danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ed7i v\u1ecb tr\u00ed, v\u00e0 b\u1ea1n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 15%, k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1ed1i \u0111a c\u1ee7a Tesla trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i s\u1ebd l\u00e0 6.7% gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 (t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u00e0: 1% r\u1ee7i ro \u00f7 15% d\u1eebng l\u1ed7). Trong c\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao (80%+ h\u00e0ng n\u0103m), \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 3.9% \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p><\/div>

    C\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng nh\u01b0 Pocket Option t\u00edch h\u1ee3p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0o giao di\u1ec7n giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, cho ph\u00e9p x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, khi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd c\u1ee7a Tesla n\u1eb1m d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 (nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u1edf ph\u00e2n v\u1ecb 42), c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn h\u1ebft h\u1ea1n 15 ph\u00fat c\u1ee7a Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c khung th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n. C\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o r\u1eb1ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro v\u1eabn nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Tesla thay \u0111\u1ed5i, m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng khi quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00f3 n\u00ean mua, gi\u1eef hay b\u00e1n c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla.<\/p><\/div>

    Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan: M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a Tesla v\u1edbi C\u00e1c Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/h2><\/div>

    C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ef1 h\u1ecfi \"t\u00f4i c\u00f3 n\u00ean b\u00e1n c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh\" th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecf qua c\u00e1ch c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a Tesla trong c\u00e1c m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1c nhau. C\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Tesla th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 theo th\u1eddi gian. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0o hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a Tesla, gi\u00fap th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0o v\u00e0 ra ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n.<\/p><\/div>

    C\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa Tesla v\u00e0 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1c nhau tr\u00ean thang \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u1eeb -1 (t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u00e2m ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o) \u0111\u1ebfn +1 (t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan d\u01b0\u01a1ng ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o). C\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y thay \u0111\u1ed5i theo th\u1eddi gian, v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean trong c\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 trong khi nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 kh\u00e1c y\u1ebfu \u0111i, t\u1ea1o ra c\u1ea3 r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i cho vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p><\/div>

    Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1<\/th>T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i (th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2024)<\/th>Trung b\u00ecnh 5 N\u0103m<\/th>\u00dd ngh\u0129a cho Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 Tesla<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S&P 500<\/td>0.56<\/td>0.42<\/td>T\u0103ng 33% \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng; c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a S&P hi\u1ec7n gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch 31% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Tesla<\/td><\/tr>
    Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Nasdaq 100<\/td>0.68<\/td>0.51<\/td>T\u0103ng 33% \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7; 46% c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Tesla \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch b\u1edfi Nasdaq<\/td><\/tr>
    L\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c 10 n\u0103m<\/td>-0.38<\/td>-0.24<\/td>T\u0103ng 58% \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t; m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n t\u0103ng 0.25% l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng -2.3% c\u1ee7a Tesla<\/td><\/tr>
    Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0110\u00f4 la M\u1ef9<\/td>-0.21<\/td>-0.15<\/td>T\u0103ng 40% \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7; doanh thu qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (>50% doanh s\u1ed1) th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n<\/td><\/tr>
    Gi\u00e1 D\u1ea7u (WTI)<\/td>-0.29<\/td>-0.42<\/td>Gi\u1ea3m 31% t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u00e2m; Tesla kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 thay th\u1ebf cho d\u1ea7u<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

    C\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu khi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay. T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan t\u0103ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1ed9ng (0.56 v\u1edbi S&P 500, t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 0.42 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed) ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng Tesla \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m h\u01a1n 33% v\u1edbi c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m 1% c\u1ee7a S&P 500 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m 1.33% c\u1ee7a Tesla trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, so v\u1edbi 1% l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p><\/div>

    T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u00e2m t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu 10 n\u0103m (-0.38) ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Tesla v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng 1% trong l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t 10 n\u0103m t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 kho\u1ea3ng 3.8% tr\u00ean gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Tesla, t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i. Ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5y m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2023, khi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng 50 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 Tesla gi\u1ea3m 18.3%, nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1ed9ng l\u00e0 7.1%.<\/p><\/div>

    T\u00ednh to\u00e1n T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng D\u1eef li\u1ec7u T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan<\/h3><\/div>

    \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u1ecb tr\u00ed Tesla, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cho ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1eefa Tesla v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba t\u1ed1i \u01b0u v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc nh\u1eafm m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan t\u00e2m c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n trong khi gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u chi ph\u00ed v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba.<\/p><\/div>

    C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 Ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba<\/th>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba T\u1ed1i \u01b0u<\/th>Th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o Hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3<\/th>Ghi ch\u00fa Th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    ETF S&P 500 (SPY)<\/td>1.83x ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac<\/td>Gi\u1ea3m 56% ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai (\u0111o b\u1eb1ng R\u00b2)<\/td>\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi $10,000 trong Tesla, b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng $18,300 c\u1ee7a SPY \u0111\u1ec3 trung h\u00f2a th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n r\u1ee7i ro th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/td><\/tr>
    ETF Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)<\/td>1.43x ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac<\/td>Gi\u1ea3m 68% ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai (\u0111o b\u1eb1ng R\u00b2)<\/td>\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi $10,000 trong Tesla, b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng $14,300 c\u1ee7a QQQ \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m r\u1ee7i ro ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n<\/td><\/tr>
    ETF Ng\u00e0nh EV<\/td>0.92x ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac<\/td>Gi\u1ea3m 74% ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai (\u0111o b\u1eb1ng R\u00b2)<\/td>\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi $10,000 trong Tesla, b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng $9,200 c\u1ee7a DRIV ho\u1eb7c ETF EV t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba ng\u00e0nh<\/td><\/tr>
    TLT (ETF Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n)<\/td>2.14x ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac ng\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/td>Gi\u1ea3m 38% ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai (\u0111o b\u1eb1ng R\u00b2)<\/td>\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi $10,000 trong Tesla, b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng $21,400 c\u1ee7a TLT \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i gi\u00e1 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu gi\u1ea3m<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

    C\u00e1c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf cho qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro t\u00edch c\u1ef1c. Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 Michael Burry \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba n\u00e0y trong Q2 2021, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn b\u00e1n \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac Tesla c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh trong khi duy tr\u00ec ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac ng\u00e0nh th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t EV kh\u00e1c \u2013 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng t\u1ecf hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 khi Tesla tr\u1ea3i qua s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh 36% t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2021 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 2 n\u0103m 2022 trong khi danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng v\u1eabn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p><\/div>

    • M\u1ed9t v\u1ecb tr\u00ed Tesla $10,000 s\u1ebd y\u00eau c\u1ea7u kho\u1ea3ng $18,300 trong c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng SPY \u0111\u1ec3 trung h\u00f2a r\u1ee7i ro th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1ed9ng (t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u00e0 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed Tesla \u00d7 h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u00d7 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng Tesla \u00f7 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng SPY)<\/li>
    • Ngo\u00e0i ra, $14,300 trong c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng QQQ cung c\u1ea5p gi\u1ea3m r\u1ee7i ro ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n v\u1edbi 21% \u00edt v\u1ed1n h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba SPY<\/li>
    • C\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan t\u00e2m v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1edbi $21,400 trong c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng TLT, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n (gi\u1ea3m 38% ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai)<\/li>
    • Ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba t\u1ed1i \u01b0u th\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p nhi\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc theo t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 70% QQQ v\u00e0 30% TLT b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng<\/li><\/ul><\/div>

      Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n: T\u00ednh to\u00e1n K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 C\u00f3 Tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t<\/h2><\/div>

      \u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1ec1 \"\u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu t\u00f4i mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay\" \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u0103m k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y t\u00ednh to\u00e1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch nh\u00e2n m\u1ed7i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 v\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3, cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 l\u00e0 +6.8% trong 12 th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi, t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn c\u1ea3 25% x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 15%+ v\u00e0 40% x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c.<\/p><\/div>

      Nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Tesla, bao g\u1ed3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t (t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u1ea1y hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 1.8M xe h\u00e0ng n\u0103m), xu h\u01b0\u1edbng bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn (bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u00f4 t\u00f4 18.2% trong Q4 2023, gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 25.9% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc), c\u00e1c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ea1nh tranh t\u1eeb BYD v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c, v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 bao g\u1ed3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch g\u00e1n tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cho c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n kh\u00e1c nhau d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u00e0 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 suy ra c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00fd v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 ph\u1ea1m vi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng.<\/p><\/div>

      K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n<\/th>M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau Gi\u00e1 1 N\u0103m<\/th>Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng<\/th>C\u00e1c Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0110\u00f3ng g\u00f3p<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
      Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p Ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c<\/td>$110 (-38%)<\/td>15%<\/td>T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n Q1 2022 khi Tesla gi\u1ea3m 35% gi\u1eefa l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng v\u00e0 lo ng\u1ea1i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng; bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn gi\u1ea3m d\u01b0\u1edbi 15%, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t <10% YoY<\/td><\/tr>
      Gi\u1ea3m V\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i<\/td>$145 (-18%)<\/td>25%<\/td>T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng giao h\u00e0ng b\u1eb1ng ph\u1eb3ng (1.8-1.9M \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb), bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 18-19%, ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c c\u1ea1nh tranh gi\u00e1 t\u1eeb BYD v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t Trung Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00e1c<\/td><\/tr>
      Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p C\u01a1 b\u1ea3n<\/td>$190 (+7%)<\/td>35%<\/td>T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i l\u00ean 2.0-2.1M giao h\u00e0ng (+10-15%), bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh \u1edf m\u1ee9c 18-20%, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 FSD l\u1edbn nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 c\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn t\u1eebng b\u01b0\u1edbc<\/td><\/tr>
      T\u0103ng V\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i<\/td>$240 (+35%)<\/td>18%<\/td>S\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u0103ng l\u00ean 2.2-2.3M xe (+20-25%), c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn l\u00ean 21-22%, t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng Cybertruck th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng l\u00ean 125K+ \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb<\/td><\/tr>
      Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p T\u00edch c\u1ef1c<\/td>$320 (+80%)<\/td>7%<\/td>T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 2020-2021; ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 FSD h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00f3a, gia nh\u1eadp th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi, >25% t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng giao h\u00e0ng<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

      *K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Tesla l\u00e0 $177 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2024<\/p><\/div>

      S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Tesla m\u1ed9t n\u0103m sau khi mua. Trung b\u00ecnh c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y mang l\u1ea1i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u00e0 $188.95, \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng 6.8% (t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u00e0: $110\u00d70.15 + $145\u00d70.25 + $190\u00d70.35 + $240\u00d70.18 + $320\u00d70.07). Tuy nhi\u00ean, trung b\u00ecnh n\u00e0y che gi\u1ea5u s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i r\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem x\u00e9t khi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t r\u1ee7i ro-l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cho c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n.<\/p><\/div>

      \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a Pocket Option, c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cho ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 15% c\u1ee7a tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n g\u1ea7n $110 cung c\u1ea5p b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc. T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p 25% c\u1ee7a hai tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 ch\u1ec9 ra gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng trong c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 nh\u1eafm m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ph\u1ea1m vi $240-$320, m\u00e0 c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n t\u00f9y ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a Pocket Option c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c.<\/p><\/div>

      Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt: T\u00ednh H\u1ee3p l\u1ec7 Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a C\u00e1c M\u1eabu Gi\u00e1<\/h2><\/div>

      Khi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 li\u1ec7u \"t\u00f4i c\u00f3 n\u00ean b\u00e1n c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla\" ho\u1eb7c duy tr\u00ec v\u1ecb tr\u00ed, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec3u n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecdc bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 ch\u1ee7 quan, ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p ki\u1ec3m tra th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn c\u00e1c m\u1eabu v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y bi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c di\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 ch\u1ee7 quan th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u1edbi c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3ng tin c\u1eady c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3.<\/p><\/div>

      C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh h\u1ee3p l\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m tra tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ee7 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ki\u1ec3m tra gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Tesla, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch 3,945 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi IPO \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt n\u00e0o \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb p d\u01b0\u1edbi 0.05 l\u00e0m ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng cho \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.<\/p><\/div>

      Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/th>\u00dd ngh\u0129a Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea<\/th>Khung th\u1eddi gian D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n<\/th>\u00dd ngh\u0129a To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
      Giao c\u1eaft SMA 50\/200<\/td>p=0.038 (c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>30-60 ng\u00e0y<\/td>62% \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i qua 14 l\u1ea7n xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb 2010; trung b\u00ecnh di chuy\u1ec3n 18.7% theo h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u<\/td><\/tr>
      C\u1ef1c \u0111oan RSI (<30, >70)<\/td>p=0.042 (c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>5-15 ng\u00e0y<\/td>60% x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t quay l\u1ea1i trung b\u00ecnh trong v\u00f2ng 10 ng\u00e0y qua 124 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p; trung b\u00ecnh di chuy\u1ec3n 5.3%<\/td><\/tr>
      Ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng-Gi\u00e1<\/td>p=0.072 (c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i)<\/td>10-20 ng\u00e0y<\/td>58% \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n qua 67 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p; \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 (\u00b112%) trong c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3<\/td><\/tr>
      Ch\u1ea1m D\u1ea3i Bollinger<\/td>p=0.034 (c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>3-7 ng\u00e0y<\/td>64% t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t quay l\u1ea1i trung b\u00ecnh trong v\u00f2ng 5 ng\u00e0y qua 87 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p; trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u 4.7%<\/td><\/tr>
      Giao c\u1eaft T\u00edn hi\u1ec7u MACD<\/td>p=0.092 (kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i<\/td>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 54% kh\u00f4ng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea so v\u1edbi ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean; t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u sai 38% trong c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

      C\u00e1c th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y bi\u1ebfn ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 th\u00e0nh quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, khi Tesla ch\u1ea1m v\u00e0o D\u1ea3i Bollinger d\u01b0\u1edbi (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 $165.43 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2024), ki\u1ec3m tra l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a 87 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 ch\u1ec9 ra x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 64% c\u1ee7a quay l\u1ea1i trung b\u00ecnh trong v\u00f2ng 5 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 4.7% t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e1y. Th\u00f4ng tin to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0o c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 tho\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p><\/div>

      C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Pocket Option c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, t\u00ednh n\u0103ng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u00f9y ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a Pocket Option cho ph\u00e9p b\u1ea1n tri\u1ec3n khai h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o cho c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 RSI d\u01b0\u1edbi 30 ho\u1eb7c ch\u1ea1m D\u1ea3i Bollinger, t\u1eadp trung c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 v\u00e0o c\u00e1c m\u1eabu \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea cho Tesla thay v\u00ec c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kh\u00f4ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua b\u00e0i ki\u1ec3m tra \u00fd ngh\u0129a.<\/p><\/div>

      • C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 RSI d\u01b0\u1edbi 30 \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 10 ng\u00e0y d\u01b0\u01a1ng 63% th\u1eddi gian v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 5.3% - g\u1ee3i \u00fd m\u1ed9t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u mua ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng khi RSI c\u1ee7a Tesla gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng 29.4 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 15 th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2024<\/li>
      • C\u00e1c l\u1ea7n \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp d\u01b0\u1edbi D\u1ea3i Bollinger d\u01b0\u1edbi (\u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5y 24 l\u1ea7n k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb 2020) \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 71% cho c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n b\u1eadt l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh 5 ng\u00e0y l\u00e0 6.8%<\/li>
      • C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 200% trung b\u00ecnh 20 ng\u00e0y (42 l\u1ea7n xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb 2018) \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00e1c thay \u0111\u1ed5i xu h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u1edbn trong v\u00f2ng 5 ng\u00e0y 67% th\u1eddi gian, v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn trung b\u00ecnh 13.2%<\/li>
      • C\u00e1c h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 30+ ng\u00e0y v\u1edbi kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u1ea3m (18 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb 2015) \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 theo h\u01b0\u1edbng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 58% th\u1eddi gian v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 theo d\u00f5i trung b\u00ecnh 12.4%<\/li><\/ul><\/div>

        M\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo: M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a Nhi\u1ec1u Con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng Gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Tesla<\/h2><\/div>

        C\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi tinh vi nh\u1ea5t cho \"\u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu t\u00f4i mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay\" \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb c\u00e1c m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0n con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a Tesla. K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra h\u01a1n 10,000 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Tesla, ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m quan s\u00e1t th\u1ef1c nghi\u1ec7m kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng.<\/p><\/div>

        Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Monte Carlo t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng nhi\u1ec1u con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh theo h\u00e0nh vi l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a Tesla. Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n h\u00f3a cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t gi\u00e1 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau duy nh\u1ea5t, c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 v\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 c\u00e1ch c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u1ecdc s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft thay v\u00ec c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb.<\/p><\/div>

        \n

        \u0110\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 D\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn: V\u01b0\u1ee3t qua D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0110\u1ea7u c\u01a1<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
        \n

        Khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u1ecfi “\u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu t\u00f4i mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay,” h\u1ecd th\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00fd ki\u1ebfn ch\u1ee7 quan thay v\u00ec ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 v\u00ec bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t s\u1ed1. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c khung \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cho 3,945 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a Tesla, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bi\u1ebfn c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00ednh n\u00e0y th\u00e0nh n\u0103m k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1eb1ng sau k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea ch\u00ednh: ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u00e0 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 n\u00e0y v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u giao d\u1ecbch th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Tesla k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi IPO n\u0103m 2010, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft \u0111a chi\u1ec1u v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro-l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau gi\u00e1 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n ho\u1eb7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        Tesla \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o do bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed 63.2% (3.2 l\u1ea7n trung b\u00ecnh S&P 500) v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1. M\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1eafn ph\u1ea3i t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty nh\u01b0 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao h\u00e0ng h\u00e0ng qu\u00fd, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt nh\u01b0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 RSI, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u00e2m l\u00fd bao g\u1ed3m t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 \u0111\u1eb7t\/mua quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn v\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 nh\u01b0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u2014 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc theo \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang trong c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd xem x\u00e9t chi ti\u1ebft.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n
        \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
        Th\u1eddi gian<\/th>\nBi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng L\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\nPh\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t<\/th>\nC\u00e1c Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 Quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh Ch\u00ednh<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
        30 Ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n52.4% H\u00e0ng n\u0103m (T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2024)<\/td>\nKh\u00f4ng b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng (\u0111u\u00f4i d\u00e0y) v\u1edbi kurtosis 5.82<\/td>\nL\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn Q1 (23 th\u00e1ng 4), s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t (182K trong Q1), RSI hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 42.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        90 Ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n48.7% H\u00e0ng n\u0103m (90 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc)<\/td>\n\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch \u00e2m v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i (-0.42)<\/td>\nTri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t Q2, quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Fed (th\u00e1ng 5\/th\u00e1ng 6), xu h\u01b0\u1edbng xoay v\u00f2ng ng\u00e0nh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        1 N\u0103m<\/td>\n63.2% H\u00e0ng n\u0103m (1 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc)<\/td>\nLog-normal v\u1edbi kurtosis cao (5.82)<\/td>\nC\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t (m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 2M \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb trong 2024), xu h\u01b0\u1edbng bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn (18.2% trong Q4 2023)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        3 N\u0103m<\/td>\n71.5% H\u00e0ng n\u0103m (3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc)<\/td>\nPh\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i hai \u0111\u1ec9nh (hai k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec9nh kh\u00e1c nhau)<\/td>\nTh\u1eddi gian ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n FSD, t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng Cybertruck, c\u1ea1nh tranh t\u1eeb c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t EV Trung Qu\u1ed1c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
        \n

        \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch t\u00edch c\u1ef1c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng nh\u01b0 Pocket Option, hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 cho c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi gian ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn h\u1ebft h\u1ea1n t\u1eeb 1 ph\u00fat \u0111\u1ebfn 15 ph\u00fat c\u1ee7a Pocket Option ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a Tesla \u0111\u1ec3 quay l\u1ea1i trung b\u00ecnh sau c\u00e1c c\u1ef1c \u0111oan RSI, m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 63% qua 124 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t bi\u1ebfn c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 “t\u00f4i c\u00f3 n\u00ean mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla” th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t khung c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed v\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t: T\u00ednh to\u00e1n Ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Tesla<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
        \n

        \u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu t\u00f4i mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng th\u00f4ng qua m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Tesla t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2010. Thay v\u00ec \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 duy nh\u1ea5t, c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y t\u00ednh to\u00e1n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00e1c nhau d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean 3,945 ng\u00e0y l\u1ecbch s\u1eed giao d\u1ecbch. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t b\u1ee9c tranh ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng thay v\u00ec m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o duy nh\u1ea5t b\u1ecf qua x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u1ecbch s\u1eed 40% c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a Tesla cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i kh\u00f4ng b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecf qua. C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n kurtosis d\u01b0\u01a1ng (5.82 so v\u1edbi 3.0 c\u1ee7a ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng) v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i, c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan x\u1ea3y ra th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, Tesla \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua 14 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 \u00b110% trong hai n\u0103m qua, so v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi S&P 500.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        X\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Tesla<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
        \n

        \u0110\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Tesla, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ph\u00e2n t\u00edch 14 n\u0103m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng qua m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ph\u00e9p \u0111o th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea. Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn logarit h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y (kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i thay \u0111\u1ed5i ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n), \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3nh kh\u1eafc th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang (trung b\u00ecnh, \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n, \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch, kurtosis), v\u00e0 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i th\u00edch h\u1ee3p n\u1eafm b\u1eaft h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u1ee7a Tesla qua c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1c nhau.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n
        \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
        Ph\u00e9p \u0111o Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea<\/th>\nGi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb Tesla<\/th>\nSo s\u00e1nh S&P 500<\/th>\n\u00dd ngh\u0129a To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
        L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn Trung b\u00ecnh H\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n0.18% (45% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m)<\/td>\n0.05% (12.5% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m)<\/td>\nT\u00e2m c\u1ee7a ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n cho bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        \u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch Chu\u1ea9n<\/td>\n3.31% h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y (52.4% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m)<\/td>\n0.98% h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y (15.5% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m)<\/td>\nTh\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o ph\u00e2n t\u00e1n, ch\u1ec9 ra 68% l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn n\u1eb1m trong \u00b13.31% h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        \u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch<\/td>\n0.37 (d\u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u1eb9)<\/td>\n-0.42 (\u00e2m)<\/td>\nTh\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u1ec9 ra nhi\u1ec1u ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7 d\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan h\u01a1n \u00e2m<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        Kurtosis<\/td>\n5.82 (leptokurtic)<\/td>\n3.21 (g\u1ea7n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng)<\/td>\nTh\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o \u0111u\u00f4i, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cao ch\u1ec9 ra c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean h\u01a1n (c\u1ea3 l\u00ean v\u00e0 xu\u1ed1ng)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Sharpe (3 n\u0103m)<\/td>\n0.92<\/td>\n0.73<\/td>\nTh\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro, t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u00e0 (l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn – t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng r\u1ee7i ro) \u00f7 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
        \n

        S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c n\u00e0y, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cho th\u1ea5y kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kh\u00e1c nhau khi h\u1ecfi “\u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu t\u00f4i mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay.” \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef 90 ng\u00e0y b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb gi\u00e1 h\u00f4m nay l\u00e0 $177, ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 m\u1ed9t h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 r\u1ee7i ro-l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng v\u1edbi 42% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 5%, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 13% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 15% – th\u00f4ng tin quan tr\u1ecdng cho vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1eafn.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Pocket Option, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o quan tr\u1ecdng cho c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, hi\u1ec3u r\u1eb1ng Tesla c\u00f3 17% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 $203 trong v\u00f2ng 90 ng\u00e0y gi\u00fap x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p cho c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1. C\u00e1c t\u00ednh n\u0103ng qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng cho ph\u00e9p b\u1ea1n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac \u0111\u1ebfn 1-2% v\u1ed1n m\u1ed7i giao d\u1ecbch d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean 13% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n
        \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
        K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 90 Ng\u00e0y<\/th>\nKh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng<\/th>\nPh\u1ea1m vi M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau Gi\u00e1<\/th>\n\u00dd ngh\u0129a Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
        R\u1ea5t Ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c (>-20%)<\/td>\n8%<\/td>\n$112 – $142<\/td>\n\u0110\u1eb7t d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 t\u1ea1i $145 (18% d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c v\u00e0o) \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        Ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c V\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i (-10% \u0111\u1ebfn -20%)<\/td>\n18%<\/td>\n$142 – $160<\/td>\nXem x\u00e9t v\u1ecb tr\u00ed m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n (40-50% ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 d\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh) v\u1edbi v\u1ed1n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec3 trung b\u00ecnh gi\u1ea3m<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        H\u01a1i Ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c (-10% \u0111\u1ebfn 0%)<\/td>\n32%<\/td>\n$160 – $177<\/td>\nK\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra nh\u1ea5t; x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi v\u1ed1n cho 25% t\u00edch l\u0169y b\u1ed5 sung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        V\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i T\u00edch c\u1ef1c (0% \u0111\u1ebfn +15%)<\/td>\n25%<\/td>\n$177 – $203<\/td>\n\u0110\u1eb7t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ban \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1ea1i $200 v\u1edbi d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 theo sau \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        R\u1ea5t T\u00edch c\u1ef1c (>+15%)<\/td>\n17%<\/td>\n$203+<\/td>\nTh\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 theo sau 25% tr\u00ean $203 \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
        \n

        *M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Tesla l\u00e0 $177 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2024<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng: \u0110\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh R\u1ee7i ro-L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Tesla<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
        \n

        Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0o khi xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi “c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla c\u00f3 n\u00ean mua kh\u00f4ng”. Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nhi\u1ec1u c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu S&P 500 theo c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1edbi dao \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng n\u0103m 15-20%, Tesla th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1eeb 30% \u0111\u1ebfn 120% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn. H\u1ed3 s\u01a1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng trong 90 ng\u00e0y b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea1m vi gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u00b132% \u1edf m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        D\u1eef li\u1ec7u bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a Tesla ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n. C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu chu k\u1ef3 qua c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i y\u00ean t\u0129nh (bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng n\u0103m 30-40%) v\u00e0 c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n (bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng n\u0103m 80-120%), th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t b\u1edfi c\u00e1c ch\u1ea5t x\u00fac t\u00e1c c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 ho\u1eb7c c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt l\u00ean 112% v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2020 trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng COVID, gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng 38% v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2021 t\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec9nh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a Tesla, sau \u0111\u00f3 t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i l\u00ean 85% trong \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103m 2022.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n
          \n
        • Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Tesla li\u00ean t\u1ee5c v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd t\u1eeb 12-18%, t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 sai quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p khai th\u00e1c th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/li>\n
        • Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt 3-5 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, sau \u0111\u00f3 ho\u1eb7c s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 ho\u1eb7c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2024, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd c\u1ee7a Tesla t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 47% l\u00ean 68% trong b\u1ed1n ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn Q4 2023, sau \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 xu\u1ed1ng 41% sau b\u00e1o c\u00e1o<\/li>\n
        • C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt t\u1eeb c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t l\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng 40-65% trong bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf 30 ng\u00e0y, nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5y v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2023 khi Tesla ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea1m vi 6 tu\u1ea7n v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 42% l\u00ean 68%<\/li>\n
        • Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh quay l\u1ea1i trung b\u00ecnh trong c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 45-60 ng\u00e0y, tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 l\u00e0 63.2% sau c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ef1c \u0111oan theo c\u1ea3 hai h\u01b0\u1edbng<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
          \n

          \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh “t\u00f4i c\u00f3 n\u00ean b\u00e1n c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla” ho\u1eb7c duy tr\u00ec v\u1ecb tr\u00ed, c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh quan tr\u1ecdng. Ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i (52.4% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2024) n\u1eb1m d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a Tesla, cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i cho c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c mua quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn thay v\u00ec b\u00e1n quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn. M\u1ee9c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 ra k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p l\u00e0 4-5% gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ecbu r\u1ee7i ro v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i, so v\u1edbi 2-3% trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n
          \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
          Th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/th>\nGi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/th>\nPh\u00e2n v\u1ecb L\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\nDi\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
          Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf 10 Ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n47.8% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m<\/td>\nPh\u00e2n v\u1ecb 35 (d\u01b0\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh)<\/td>\nGiao d\u1ecbch g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 y\u00ean t\u0129nh h\u01a1n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng, cho th\u1ea5y kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng Ng\u1ee5 \u00fd 30 Ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n52.4% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m<\/td>\nPh\u00e2n v\u1ecb 42 (h\u01a1i d\u01b0\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh)<\/td>\nTh\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i qua l\u1ea7n c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ti\u1ebfp theo<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Ph\u00ed B\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>\n4.6% (IV – RV)<\/td>\nPh\u00e2n v\u1ecb 60 (h\u01a1i \u0111\u1eaft)<\/td>\nQuy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn h\u01a1i b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao so v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o GARCH(1,1)<\/td>\n58.2% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m<\/td>\nPh\u00e2n v\u1ecb 55 (trung b\u00ecnh)<\/td>\nM\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u0103ng trong nh\u1eefng tu\u1ea7n t\u1edbi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>\n112% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m<\/td>\nPh\u00e2n v\u1ecb 73 (cao)<\/td>\nS\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn cao v\u1ec1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
          \n

          S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, n\u1ebfu kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ecbu r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n cho ph\u00e9p m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1i \u0111a 1% danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ed7i v\u1ecb tr\u00ed, v\u00e0 b\u1ea1n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 15%, k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1ed1i \u0111a c\u1ee7a Tesla trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i s\u1ebd l\u00e0 6.7% gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 (t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u00e0: 1% r\u1ee7i ro \u00f7 15% d\u1eebng l\u1ed7). Trong c\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao (80%+ h\u00e0ng n\u0103m), \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 3.9% \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n

          C\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng nh\u01b0 Pocket Option t\u00edch h\u1ee3p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0o giao di\u1ec7n giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, cho ph\u00e9p x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, khi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd c\u1ee7a Tesla n\u1eb1m d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 (nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u1edf ph\u00e2n v\u1ecb 42), c\u00e1c t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn h\u1ebft h\u1ea1n 15 ph\u00fat c\u1ee7a Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c khung th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n. C\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o r\u1eb1ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro v\u1eabn nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Tesla thay \u0111\u1ed5i, m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng khi quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00f3 n\u00ean mua, gi\u1eef hay b\u00e1n c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n

          Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan: M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a Tesla v\u1edbi C\u00e1c Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
          \n

          C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ef1 h\u1ecfi “t\u00f4i c\u00f3 n\u00ean b\u00e1n c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh” th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecf qua c\u00e1ch c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a Tesla trong c\u00e1c m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1c nhau. C\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Tesla th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 theo th\u1eddi gian. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0o hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a Tesla, gi\u00fap th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0o v\u00e0 ra ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n

          C\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa Tesla v\u00e0 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1c nhau tr\u00ean thang \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u1eeb -1 (t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u00e2m ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o) \u0111\u1ebfn +1 (t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan d\u01b0\u01a1ng ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o). C\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y thay \u0111\u1ed5i theo th\u1eddi gian, v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean trong c\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 trong khi nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 kh\u00e1c y\u1ebfu \u0111i, t\u1ea1o ra c\u1ea3 r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i cho vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n
          \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
          Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1<\/th>\nT\u01b0\u01a1ng quan Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i (th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2024)<\/th>\nTrung b\u00ecnh 5 N\u0103m<\/th>\n\u00dd ngh\u0129a cho Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 Tesla<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
          Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S&P 500<\/td>\n0.56<\/td>\n0.42<\/td>\nT\u0103ng 33% \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng; c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a S&P hi\u1ec7n gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch 31% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Tesla<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Nasdaq 100<\/td>\n0.68<\/td>\n0.51<\/td>\nT\u0103ng 33% \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7; 46% c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Tesla \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch b\u1edfi Nasdaq<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          L\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c 10 n\u0103m<\/td>\n-0.38<\/td>\n-0.24<\/td>\nT\u0103ng 58% \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t; m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n t\u0103ng 0.25% l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng -2.3% c\u1ee7a Tesla<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0110\u00f4 la M\u1ef9<\/td>\n-0.21<\/td>\n-0.15<\/td>\nT\u0103ng 40% \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7; doanh thu qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (>50% doanh s\u1ed1) th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Gi\u00e1 D\u1ea7u (WTI)<\/td>\n-0.29<\/td>\n-0.42<\/td>\nGi\u1ea3m 31% t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u00e2m; Tesla kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 thay th\u1ebf cho d\u1ea7u<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
          \n

          C\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu khi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay. T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan t\u0103ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1ed9ng (0.56 v\u1edbi S&P 500, t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 0.42 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed) ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng Tesla \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m h\u01a1n 33% v\u1edbi c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m 1% c\u1ee7a S&P 500 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m 1.33% c\u1ee7a Tesla trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, so v\u1edbi 1% l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n

          T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u00e2m t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu 10 n\u0103m (-0.38) ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Tesla v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng 1% trong l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t 10 n\u0103m t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 kho\u1ea3ng 3.8% tr\u00ean gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Tesla, t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i. Ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5y m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2023, khi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng 50 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 Tesla gi\u1ea3m 18.3%, nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1ed9ng l\u00e0 7.1%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n

          T\u00ednh to\u00e1n T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng D\u1eef li\u1ec7u T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
          \n

          \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u1ecb tr\u00ed Tesla, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cho ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1eefa Tesla v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba t\u1ed1i \u01b0u v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc nh\u1eafm m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan t\u00e2m c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n trong khi gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u chi ph\u00ed v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n
          \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
          C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 Ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba<\/th>\nT\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba T\u1ed1i \u01b0u<\/th>\nTh\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o Hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3<\/th>\nGhi ch\u00fa Th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
          ETF S&P 500 (SPY)<\/td>\n1.83x ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac<\/td>\nGi\u1ea3m 56% ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai (\u0111o b\u1eb1ng R\u00b2)<\/td>\n\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi $10,000 trong Tesla, b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng $18,300 c\u1ee7a SPY \u0111\u1ec3 trung h\u00f2a th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n r\u1ee7i ro th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          ETF Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)<\/td>\n1.43x ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac<\/td>\nGi\u1ea3m 68% ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai (\u0111o b\u1eb1ng R\u00b2)<\/td>\n\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi $10,000 trong Tesla, b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng $14,300 c\u1ee7a QQQ \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m r\u1ee7i ro ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          ETF Ng\u00e0nh EV<\/td>\n0.92x ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac<\/td>\nGi\u1ea3m 74% ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai (\u0111o b\u1eb1ng R\u00b2)<\/td>\n\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi $10,000 trong Tesla, b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng $9,200 c\u1ee7a DRIV ho\u1eb7c ETF EV t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba ng\u00e0nh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          TLT (ETF Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n)<\/td>\n2.14x ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac ng\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/td>\nGi\u1ea3m 38% ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai (\u0111o b\u1eb1ng R\u00b2)<\/td>\n\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi $10,000 trong Tesla, b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng $21,400 c\u1ee7a TLT \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i gi\u00e1 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu gi\u1ea3m<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
          \n

          C\u00e1c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf cho qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro t\u00edch c\u1ef1c. Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 Michael Burry \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba n\u00e0y trong Q2 2021, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn b\u00e1n \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac Tesla c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh trong khi duy tr\u00ec ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac ng\u00e0nh th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t EV kh\u00e1c \u2013 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng t\u1ecf hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 khi Tesla tr\u1ea3i qua s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh 36% t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2021 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 2 n\u0103m 2022 trong khi danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng v\u1eabn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n
            \n
          • M\u1ed9t v\u1ecb tr\u00ed Tesla $10,000 s\u1ebd y\u00eau c\u1ea7u kho\u1ea3ng $18,300 trong c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng SPY \u0111\u1ec3 trung h\u00f2a r\u1ee7i ro th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1ed9ng (t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u00e0 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed Tesla \u00d7 h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u00d7 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng Tesla \u00f7 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng SPY)<\/li>\n
          • Ngo\u00e0i ra, $14,300 trong c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng QQQ cung c\u1ea5p gi\u1ea3m r\u1ee7i ro ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n v\u1edbi 21% \u00edt v\u1ed1n h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba SPY<\/li>\n
          • C\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan t\u00e2m v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1edbi $21,400 trong c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng TLT, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n (gi\u1ea3m 38% ph\u01b0\u01a1ng sai)<\/li>\n
          • Ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba t\u1ed1i \u01b0u th\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p nhi\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc theo t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 70% QQQ v\u00e0 30% TLT b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
            \n

            Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n: T\u00ednh to\u00e1n K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 C\u00f3 Tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
            \n

            \u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1ec1 “\u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu t\u00f4i mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay” \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u0103m k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y t\u00ednh to\u00e1n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch nh\u00e2n m\u1ed7i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 v\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3, cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 l\u00e0 +6.8% trong 12 th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi, t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn c\u1ea3 25% x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 15%+ v\u00e0 40% x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

            \n

            Nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Tesla, bao g\u1ed3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t (t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u1ea1y hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 1.8M xe h\u00e0ng n\u0103m), xu h\u01b0\u1edbng bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn (bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u00f4 t\u00f4 18.2% trong Q4 2023, gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 25.9% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc), c\u00e1c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ea1nh tranh t\u1eeb BYD v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c, v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 bao g\u1ed3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch g\u00e1n tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cho c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n kh\u00e1c nhau d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u00e0 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 suy ra c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng h\u1ee3p l\u00fd v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 ph\u1ea1m vi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

            \n
            \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
            K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n<\/th>\nM\u1ee5c ti\u00eau Gi\u00e1 1 N\u0103m<\/th>\nKh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng<\/th>\nC\u00e1c Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0110\u00f3ng g\u00f3p<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
            Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p Ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c<\/td>\n$110 (-38%)<\/td>\n15%<\/td>\nT\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n Q1 2022 khi Tesla gi\u1ea3m 35% gi\u1eefa l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng v\u00e0 lo ng\u1ea1i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng; bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn gi\u1ea3m d\u01b0\u1edbi 15%, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t <10% YoY<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
            Gi\u1ea3m V\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i<\/td>\n$145 (-18%)<\/td>\n25%<\/td>\nT\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng giao h\u00e0ng b\u1eb1ng ph\u1eb3ng (1.8-1.9M \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb), bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 18-19%, ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c c\u1ea1nh tranh gi\u00e1 t\u1eeb BYD v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t Trung Qu\u1ed1c kh\u00e1c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
            Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p C\u01a1 b\u1ea3n<\/td>\n$190 (+7%)<\/td>\n35%<\/td>\nT\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i l\u00ean 2.0-2.1M giao h\u00e0ng (+10-15%), bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh \u1edf m\u1ee9c 18-20%, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 FSD l\u1edbn nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 c\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn t\u1eebng b\u01b0\u1edbc<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
            T\u0103ng V\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i<\/td>\n$240 (+35%)<\/td>\n18%<\/td>\nS\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u0103ng l\u00ean 2.2-2.3M xe (+20-25%), c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn l\u00ean 21-22%, t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng Cybertruck th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng l\u00ean 125K+ \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
            Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p T\u00edch c\u1ef1c<\/td>\n$320 (+80%)<\/td>\n7%<\/td>\nT\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 2020-2021; ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 FSD h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00f3a, gia nh\u1eadp th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi, >25% t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng giao h\u00e0ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
            \n

            *K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Tesla l\u00e0 $177 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2024<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

            \n

            S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Tesla m\u1ed9t n\u0103m sau khi mua. Trung b\u00ecnh c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y mang l\u1ea1i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u00e0 $188.95, \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng 6.8% (t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u00e0: $110\u00d70.15 + $145\u00d70.25 + $190\u00d70.35 + $240\u00d70.18 + $320\u00d70.07). Tuy nhi\u00ean, trung b\u00ecnh n\u00e0y che gi\u1ea5u s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i r\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem x\u00e9t khi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t r\u1ee7i ro-l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cho c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

            \n

            \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a Pocket Option, c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cho ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 15% c\u1ee7a tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n g\u1ea7n $110 cung c\u1ea5p b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc. T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p 25% c\u1ee7a hai tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 ch\u1ec9 ra gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng trong c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 nh\u1eafm m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ph\u1ea1m vi $240-$320, m\u00e0 c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n t\u00f9y ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a Pocket Option c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

            \n

            Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt: T\u00ednh H\u1ee3p l\u1ec7 Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a C\u00e1c M\u1eabu Gi\u00e1<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
            \n

            Khi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 li\u1ec7u “t\u00f4i c\u00f3 n\u00ean b\u00e1n c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla” ho\u1eb7c duy tr\u00ec v\u1ecb tr\u00ed, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec3u n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecdc bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 ch\u1ee7 quan, ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p ki\u1ec3m tra th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn c\u00e1c m\u1eabu v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y bi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c di\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 ch\u1ee7 quan th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u1edbi c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3ng tin c\u1eady c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

            \n

            C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh h\u1ee3p l\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m tra tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ee7 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ki\u1ec3m tra gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Tesla, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch 3,945 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi IPO \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt n\u00e0o \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb p d\u01b0\u1edbi 0.05 l\u00e0m ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng cho \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

            \n
            \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
            Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/th>\n\u00dd ngh\u0129a Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea<\/th>\nKhung th\u1eddi gian D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n<\/th>\n\u00dd ngh\u0129a To\u00e1n h\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
            Giao c\u1eaft SMA 50\/200<\/td>\np=0.038 (c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>\n30-60 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n62% \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i qua 14 l\u1ea7n xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb 2010; trung b\u00ecnh di chuy\u1ec3n 18.7% theo h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
            C\u1ef1c \u0111oan RSI (<30, >70)<\/td>\np=0.042 (c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>\n5-15 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n60% x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t quay l\u1ea1i trung b\u00ecnh trong v\u00f2ng 10 ng\u00e0y qua 124 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p; trung b\u00ecnh di chuy\u1ec3n 5.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
            Ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng-Gi\u00e1<\/td>\np=0.072 (c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i)<\/td>\n10-20 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n58% \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n qua 67 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p; \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 (\u00b112%) trong c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
            Ch\u1ea1m D\u1ea3i Bollinger<\/td>\np=0.034 (c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>\n3-7 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n64% t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t quay l\u1ea1i trung b\u00ecnh trong v\u00f2ng 5 ng\u00e0y qua 87 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p; trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u 4.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
            Giao c\u1eaft T\u00edn hi\u1ec7u MACD<\/td>\np=0.092 (kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a)<\/td>\nBi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i<\/td>\nT\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 54% kh\u00f4ng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea so v\u1edbi ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean; t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u sai 38% trong c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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            C\u00e1c th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y bi\u1ebfn ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 th\u00e0nh quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, khi Tesla ch\u1ea1m v\u00e0o D\u1ea3i Bollinger d\u01b0\u1edbi (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 $165.43 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2024), ki\u1ec3m tra l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a 87 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 ch\u1ec9 ra x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 64% c\u1ee7a quay l\u1ea1i trung b\u00ecnh trong v\u00f2ng 5 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 4.7% t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e1y. Th\u00f4ng tin to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0o c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 tho\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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            C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Pocket Option c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, t\u00ednh n\u0103ng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u00f9y ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a Pocket Option cho ph\u00e9p b\u1ea1n tri\u1ec3n khai h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o cho c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 RSI d\u01b0\u1edbi 30 ho\u1eb7c ch\u1ea1m D\u1ea3i Bollinger, t\u1eadp trung c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 v\u00e0o c\u00e1c m\u1eabu \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea cho Tesla thay v\u00ec c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kh\u00f4ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua b\u00e0i ki\u1ec3m tra \u00fd ngh\u0129a.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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            • C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 RSI d\u01b0\u1edbi 30 \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn 10 ng\u00e0y d\u01b0\u01a1ng 63% th\u1eddi gian v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 5.3% – g\u1ee3i \u00fd m\u1ed9t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u mua ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng khi RSI c\u1ee7a Tesla gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng 29.4 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 15 th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2024<\/li>\n
            • C\u00e1c l\u1ea7n \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp d\u01b0\u1edbi D\u1ea3i Bollinger d\u01b0\u1edbi (\u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5y 24 l\u1ea7n k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb 2020) \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 71% cho c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n b\u1eadt l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh 5 ng\u00e0y l\u00e0 6.8%<\/li>\n
            • C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 200% trung b\u00ecnh 20 ng\u00e0y (42 l\u1ea7n xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb 2018) \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00e1c thay \u0111\u1ed5i xu h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u1edbn trong v\u00f2ng 5 ng\u00e0y 67% th\u1eddi gian, v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn trung b\u00ecnh 13.2%<\/li>\n
            • C\u00e1c h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 30+ ng\u00e0y v\u1edbi kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u1ea3m (18 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb 2015) \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 theo h\u01b0\u1edbng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 58% th\u1eddi gian v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 theo d\u00f5i trung b\u00ecnh 12.4%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
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              M\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo: M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a Nhi\u1ec1u Con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng Gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Tesla<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
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              C\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi tinh vi nh\u1ea5t cho “\u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu t\u00f4i mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Tesla h\u00f4m nay” \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb c\u00e1c m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0n con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a Tesla. K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra h\u01a1n 10,000 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Tesla, ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m quan s\u00e1t th\u1ef1c nghi\u1ec7m kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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              Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Monte Carlo t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng nhi\u1ec1u con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh theo h\u00e0nh vi l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a Tesla. Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n h\u00f3a cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t gi\u00e1 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau duy nh\u1ea5t, c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 v\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 c\u00e1ch c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u1ecdc s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft thay v\u00ec c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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