{"id":313938,"date":"2025-07-18T19:01:08","date_gmt":"2025-07-18T19:01:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/news-events\/data\/natural-gas-etf-3x-2\/"},"modified":"2025-07-18T19:01:08","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T19:01:08","slug":"natural-gas-etf-3x","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/vt\/knowledge-base\/trading\/natural-gas-etf-3x\/","title":{"rendered":"Qu\u1ef9 ETF Kh\u00ed T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean 3x: Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc cho Tri\u1ec3n Khai Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"root\"><div id=\"wrap-img-root\"><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":214270,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[48,28,44],"class_list":["post-313938","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trading","tag-crypto","tag-investment","tag-strategy"],"acf":{"h1":"Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch ETF Kh\u00ed T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean 3x \u0110\u1ecbnh Ngh\u0129a c\u1ee7a Pocket Option","h1_source":{"label":"H1","type":"text","formatted_value":"Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch ETF Kh\u00ed T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean 3x \u0110\u1ecbnh Ngh\u0129a c\u1ee7a Pocket Option"},"description":"L\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ETF kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i. T\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh suy gi\u1ea3m ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c, c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng minh v\u1edbi Pocket Option ngay h\u00f4m nay.","description_source":{"label":"Description","type":"textarea","formatted_value":"L\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ETF kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i. T\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c ph\u00e9p t\u00ednh suy gi\u1ea3m ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c, c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng minh v\u1edbi Pocket Option ngay h\u00f4m nay."},"intro":"Vi\u1ec7c th\u00e0nh th\u1ea1o c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n n\u00e0y kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ETF kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x, cung c\u1ea5p cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t, \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00e0 c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecf l\u1ee1.","intro_source":{"label":"Intro","type":"text","formatted_value":"Vi\u1ec7c th\u00e0nh th\u1ea1o c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n n\u00e0y kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ETF kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x, cung c\u1ea5p cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t, \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00e0 c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecf l\u1ee1."},"body_html":"<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Hi\u1ec3u To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc \u0110\u1eb1ng Sau C\u00e1c S\u1ea3n Ph\u1ea9m Natural Gas ETF 3x<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 Natural gas ETF 3x \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng ph\u00e2n kh\u00fac ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a. C\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 giao d\u1ecbch trao \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y ba l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y g\u1ea5p 3 l\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean th\u00f4ng qua m\u1ed9t ki\u1ebfn tr\u00fac ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00e1i sinh, ho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed5i v\u00e0 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00fang c\u00e1ch.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng g\u1ed9p phi tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n g\u1ea5p 3 l\u1ea7n trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i\u2014m\u1ed9t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc quan tr\u1ecdng t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u00f4ng th\u00e1i kh\u1ecfi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ebfn.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>C\u00f4ng Th\u1ee9c Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee8ng G\u1ed9p Trong C\u00e1c C\u00f4ng C\u1ee5 Natural Gas ETF 3x<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc gi\u1eefa l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf trong c\u00e1c ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng g\u1ed9p. C\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y n\u00e0y tu\u00e2n theo m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao vi\u1ec7c nh\u00e2n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi ba d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ednh to\u00e1n sai:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n<\/th><th>C\u00f4ng Th\u1ee9c<\/th><th>V\u00ed D\u1ee5 T\u00ednh To\u00e1n<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Hi\u1ec7u Su\u1ea5t H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y<\/td><td>L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y ETF = 3 \u00d7 (L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1)<\/td><td>N\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng 2%: 3 \u00d7 2% = 6% l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ETF<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee8ng G\u1ed9p<\/td><td>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb ETFn&nbsp;= Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb ETFn-1&nbsp;\u00d7 (1 + 3 \u00d7 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0yn)<\/td><td>$100 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh $106 sau ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 2%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ph\u1ee5 Thu\u1ed9c \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110i<\/td><td>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb Cu\u1ed1i C\u00f9ng ETF = Ban \u0110\u1ea7u \u00d7 \u220f[1 + 3(rt)]<\/td><td>T\u00edch c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u1ea5u tr\u00fac to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng\u2014hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng minh n\u01a1i c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 \u00e2m li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp l\u00e0m x\u00f3i m\u00f2n v\u1ed1n trong c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y, ngay c\u1ea3 khi t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 di chuy\u1ec3n r\u00f2ng.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h3 class='po-article-page__title'>\u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng S\u1ef1 Suy Gi\u1ea3m Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Trong C\u00e1c ETF C\u00f3 \u0110\u00f2n B\u1ea9y Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean<\/h3><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u1ed9i ng\u0169 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a Pocket Option \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trong c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m n\u00e0y l\u00e0:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n Suy Gi\u1ea3m Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/th><th>Bi\u1ec3u Th\u1ee9c To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th><th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Th\u1ef1c T\u1ebf<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn K\u1ef3 V\u1ecdng<\/td><td>E[RL] = L \u00d7 E[RU] - (L)(L-1)\u03c32\/2<\/td><td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao h\u01a1n (\u03c3) tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp l\u00e0m x\u00f3i m\u00f2n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Chu\u1ed7i 2 Ng\u00e0y<\/td><td>(1+3r1)(1+3r2) \u2260 1+3(r1+r2)<\/td><td>L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp g\u1ed9p phi tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>H\u1ec7 S\u1ed1 Nh\u00e2n Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/td><td>\u03c3L&nbsp;= L \u00d7 \u03c3U<\/td><td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ETF = 3 \u00d7 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y t\u1eeb 2.5-3.0%. \u00c1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c suy gi\u1ea3m cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y tr\u1ea3i qua s\u1ef1 x\u00f3i m\u00f2n h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y kho\u1ea3ng 0.56-0.81% (t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u00e0 L(L-1)\u03c32\/2), chuy\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng suy gi\u1ea3m h\u00e0ng n\u0103m 75-120% ngay c\u1ea3 trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c C\u00e2n B\u1eb1ng L\u1ea1i v\u00e0 T\u1ed1i \u01afu H\u00f3a To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc cho C\u00e1c V\u1ecb Tr\u00ed Natural Gas ETF 3x<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c khung c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1i to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc thay v\u00ec c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p mua v\u00e0 gi\u1eef th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i v\u1ec1 15 n\u0103m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean ch\u1ee9ng minh t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Backtesting \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Pocket Option ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c gi\u1eefa bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef t\u1ed1i \u01b0u:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Ph\u1ea1m Vi Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y (\u03c3)<\/th><th>Th\u1eddi Gian N\u1eafm Gi\u1eef T\u1ed1i \u0110a T\u1ed1i \u01afu<\/th><th>S\u1ef1 Suy Gi\u1ea3m Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb K\u1ef3 V\u1ecdng<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>0-1.5%<\/td><td>10-14 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch<\/td><td>~7% suy gi\u1ea3m l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1.5-3.0%<\/td><td>5-9 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch<\/td><td>~12% suy gi\u1ea3m l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3.0-4.5%<\/td><td>2-4 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch<\/td><td>~18% suy gi\u1ea3m l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>&gt;4.5%<\/td><td>0-1 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch<\/td><td>&gt;25% suy gi\u1ea3m l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1i t\u1ed1i \u01b0u cho c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Kho\u1ea3ng C\u00e2n B\u1eb1ng L\u1ea1i T\u1ed1i \u01afu = \u221a(2c\/L(L-1)\u03c32)<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Trong \u0111\u00f3: c = chi ph\u00ed giao d\u1ecbch (th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 0.05-0.15%), L = h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y (3), v\u00e0 \u03c3 = bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y (bi\u1ec3u th\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng th\u1eadp ph\u00e2n)<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch T\u01b0\u01a1ng Quan v\u00e0 M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea cho \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 Natural Gas ETF 3x<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ef1 di chuy\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i v\u1ec1 1,250 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan ch\u00ednh n\u00e0y gi\u1eefa hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x v\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 T\u01b0\u01a1ng Quan<\/th><th>Ph\u1ea1m Vi H\u1ec7 S\u1ed1 Pearson<\/th><th>\u00dd Ngh\u0129a Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea (p-value)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ec7ch th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft<\/td><td>0.72-0.85<\/td><td>&lt;0.001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean b\u00e1o c\u00e1o l\u01b0u tr\u1eef<\/td><td>0.68-0.79<\/td><td>&lt;0.001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t<\/td><td>0.58-0.75<\/td><td>&lt;0.005<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7<\/td><td>0.22-0.45<\/td><td>&lt;0.05<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y ETF ng\u00e0nh n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n<\/td><td>0.35-0.55<\/td><td>&lt;0.01<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh cho c\u00e1c thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a Pocket Option v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 di chuy\u1ec3n gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng 62-68%\u2014cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean 50% v\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00fang c\u00e1ch.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h3 class='po-article-page__title'>Khung Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch H\u1ed3i Quy cho D\u1ef1 \u0110o\u00e1n ETF C\u00f3 \u0110\u00f2n B\u1ea9y Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean<\/h3><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ef1 di chuy\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy l\u00e0:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn ETF = \u03b2\u2080 + \u03b2\u2081(L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn Giao Ngay Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean) + \u03b2\u2082(Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng) + \u03b2\u2083(Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 Contango\/Backwardation) + \u03b2\u2084(Bi\u1ebfn S\u1ed1 M\u00f9a) + \u03b5<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh v\u1edbi 1,258 ng\u00e0y d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea sau:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Bi\u1ebfn S\u1ed1<\/th><th>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb H\u1ec7 S\u1ed1<\/th><th>L\u1ed7i Chu\u1ea9n<\/th><th>t-Statistic<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Intercept (\u03b2\u2080)<\/td><td>-0.0012<\/td><td>0.0005<\/td><td>-2.4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn Giao Ngay Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean (\u03b2\u2081)<\/td><td>2.87<\/td><td>0.08<\/td><td>35.875<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng (\u03b2\u2082)<\/td><td>-0.42<\/td><td>0.11<\/td><td>-3.818<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Contango\/Backwardation (\u03b2\u2083)<\/td><td>-0.28<\/td><td>0.09<\/td><td>-3.111<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bi\u1ebfn S\u1ed1 M\u00f9a (\u03b2\u2084)<\/td><td>0.18<\/td><td>0.07<\/td><td>2.571<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn giao ngay kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean (\u03b2\u2081) l\u00e0 2.87 thay v\u00ec 3.00 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac trong c\u00e1c ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y. H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 \u00e2m cho bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng (-0.42) x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng suy gi\u1ea3m to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, trong khi h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 contango \u00e2m (-0.28) ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1ch c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>T\u00ednh To\u00e1n T\u00edch H\u1ee3p Danh M\u1ee5c \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 cho C\u00e1c C\u00f4ng C\u1ee5 Natural Gas ETF 3x<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u cho c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m r\u1ee7i ro khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i. Ti\u00eau ch\u00ed Kelly s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i cung c\u1ea5p t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>f* = (p(b) - q)\/b<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Trong \u0111\u00f3: p = x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, q = x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t thua l\u1ed7 (1-p), v\u00e0 b = t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1eafng\/thua<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i v\u1ec1 15 n\u0103m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean mang l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y\u2014nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 theo tr\u1ef1c gi\u00e1c:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>H\u1ed3 S\u01a1 R\u1ee7i Ro Nh\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0<\/th><th>Ph\u00e2n B\u1ed5 T\u1ed1i \u0110a T\u00ednh To\u00e1n<\/th><th>L\u00fd Do<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>B\u1ea3o Th\u1ee7<\/td><td>0.5-2%<\/td><td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao h\u01a1n 3.5 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi S&amp;P 500 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trung B\u00ecnh<\/td><td>2-5%<\/td><td>T\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc g\u1ee3i \u00fd ch\u1ec9 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u00edch C\u1ef1c<\/td><td>5-8%<\/td><td>Gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n tr\u00ean d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c Kelly v\u1edbi p=0.55, b=1.2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u0110\u1ea7u C\u01a1<\/td><td>8-12%<\/td><td>V\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc 25-50%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft Danh M\u1ee5c \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 Hi\u1ec7n \u0110\u1ea1i b\u1ed5 sung cho khung n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Sharpe:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Sharpe = (Rp&nbsp;- Rf)\/\u03c3p<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Trong \u0111\u00f3: Rp&nbsp;= l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn danh m\u1ee5c, Rf&nbsp;= t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng r\u1ee7i ro (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 3.75-4.00%), v\u00e0 \u03c3p&nbsp;= \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n danh m\u1ee5c<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h3 class='po-article-page__title'>K\u1ecbch B\u1ea3n Ph\u00e2n B\u1ed5 T\u1ed1i \u01afu D\u1ef1a Tr\u00ean \u0110i\u1ec1u Ki\u1ec7n Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/h3><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a Pocket Option t\u1ea1o ra ma tr\u1eadn quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'><ul class='po-article-page-list'><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng (ADX &gt;25) + bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ea5p (ATR &lt;3%) = ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u0111a (trong gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n r\u1ee7i ro)<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng (ADX &gt;25) + bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao (ATR &gt;3%) = 50% ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u0111a v\u1edbi d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 15%<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i ngang (ADX &lt;20) + bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ea5p (ATR &lt;3%) = 25% ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u0111a v\u1edbi ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba ETF ng\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i ngang (ADX &lt;20) + bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao (ATR &gt;3%) = kh\u00f4ng ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 (k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u00e2m)<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c, c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt v\u00e0 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>K\u00edch Th\u01b0\u1edbc V\u1ecb Tr\u00ed = (Kh\u1ea3 N\u0103ng Ch\u1ecbu R\u1ee7i Ro T\u00e0i Kho\u1ea3n \u00d7 Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 S\u1ee9c M\u1ea1nh Xu H\u01b0\u1edbng)\/(ATR \u00d7 3)<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Trong \u0111\u00f3: Kh\u1ea3 N\u0103ng Ch\u1ecbu R\u1ee7i Ro T\u00e0i Kho\u1ea3n = m\u1ee9c l\u1ed7 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn t\u1ed1i \u0111a (th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 0.5-2%), Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 S\u1ee9c M\u1ea1nh Xu H\u01b0\u1edbng = ADX\/20, v\u00e0 ATR = Ph\u1ea1m Vi Th\u1ef1c Trung B\u00ecnh 14 ng\u00e0y bi\u1ec3u th\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng R\u1ee7i Ro cho Giao D\u1ecbch ETF C\u00f3 \u0110\u00f2n B\u1ea9y Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn cho c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n. C\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb R\u1ee7i Ro (VaR) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t cho c\u00e1c ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1c t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c VaR tham s\u1ed1 cho c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>VaR = P \u00d7 z \u00d7 \u03c3 \u00d7 \u221at<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Trong \u0111\u00f3: P = gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb v\u1ecb tr\u00ed, z = \u0111i\u1ec3m z tin c\u1eady (1.645 cho 95%, 2.326 cho 99%), \u03c3 = bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y, v\u00e0 t = th\u1eddi gian trong ng\u00e0y<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t v\u1ecb tr\u00ed $10,000 trong m\u1ed9t ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y 2.5%, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i t\u00ednh to\u00e1n VaR m\u1ed9t tu\u1ea7n \u1edf m\u1ee9c tin c\u1eady 95% nh\u01b0 sau:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n<\/th><th>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb<\/th><th>Gi\u1ea3i Th\u00edch<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb V\u1ecb Tr\u00ed (P)<\/td><td>$10,000<\/td><td>S\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ban \u0111\u1ea7u<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u0110i\u1ec3m z (tin c\u1eady 95%)<\/td><td>1.645<\/td><td>Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 tin c\u1eady th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y (\u03c3)<\/td><td>2.5% \u00d7 3 = 7.5%<\/td><td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y (3x c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Th\u1eddi Gian (t)<\/td><td>\u221a5 = 2.236<\/td><td>C\u0103n b\u1eadc hai c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>VaR T\u00ednh To\u00e1n<\/td><td>$2,763<\/td><td>$10,000 \u00d7 1.645 \u00d7 0.075 \u00d7 2.236 = $2,763<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 ra m\u1ee9c tin c\u1eady 95% r\u1eb1ng t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 $2,763. Tuy nhi\u00ean, r\u1ee7i ro \u0111u\u00f4i quan tr\u1ecdng 5% c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t $6,500-$8,750 trong c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan do c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo cung c\u1ea5p \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1ea1o ra h\u01a1n 10,000 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'><ul class='po-article-page-list'><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>C\u00e1c th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ea3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y l\u1ecbch s\u1eed 2.5-3.0% v\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 suy gi\u1ea3m h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 0.56-0.81%<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch \u00e2m r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t (-0.35 \u0111\u1ebfn -0.65) v\u1edbi kurtosis d\u01b0 th\u1eeba (3.8-5.2) do hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Ma tr\u1eadn t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn s\u00e1u bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean quan bao g\u1ed3m gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>C\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ki\u1ec3m tra c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n 3.5-4.5 x\u1ea3y ra kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n m\u1ed7i n\u0103m<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc tinh vi n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng r\u1ee7i ro bi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng, cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed h\u1ee3p l\u00fd cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng Ph\u00e1p Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Hi\u1ec7u Su\u1ea5t cho \u0110\u00e1nh Gi\u00e1 ETF C\u00f3 \u0110\u00f2n B\u1ea9y Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 chuy\u00ean bi\u1ec7t t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. C\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n t\u1ea1o ra k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 g\u00e2y hi\u1ec3u l\u1ea7m khi \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh th\u00edch h\u1ee3p.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Khung \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu n\u00e0y:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 Hi\u1ec7u Su\u1ea5t<\/th><th>C\u00f4ng Th\u1ee9c Ti\u00eau Chu\u1ea9n<\/th><th>\u0110i\u1ec1u Ch\u1ec9nh ETF C\u00f3 \u0110\u00f2n B\u1ea9y<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>So S\u00e1nh L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/td><td>L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn ETF vs. L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1<\/td><td>L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn ETF vs. (3 \u00d7 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 - Suy Gi\u1ea3m K\u1ef3 V\u1ecdng)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>L\u1ed7i Theo D\u00f5i<\/td><td>\u03c3(L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn ETF - L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1)<\/td><td>\u03c3(L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn ETF - 3 \u00d7 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Sharpe S\u1eeda \u0110\u1ed5i<\/td><td>(Rp&nbsp;- Rf)\/\u03c3p<\/td><td>(Rp&nbsp;- Rf)\/(3 \u00d7 \u03c3c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Beta \u0110i\u1ec1u Ch\u1ec9nh \u0110\u00f2n B\u1ea9y<\/td><td>Cov(rETF, rindex)\/Var(rindex)<\/td><td>Beta\/3 (Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng = 1.0)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i v\u1ec1 t\u00e1m s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x kh\u00e1c nhau ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 theo d\u00f5i, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u1ed7i theo d\u00f5i h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 0.05% \u0111\u1ebfn 0.25%. Nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t t\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eebng nh\u1ecf n\u00e0y g\u1ed9p l\u1ea1i th\u00e0nh s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t 12-60% trong m\u1ed9t n\u0103m \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh, l\u00e0m cho vi\u1ec7c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ETF tr\u1edf n\u00ean c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 quan tr\u1ecdng.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>N\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Pocket Option \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc chuy\u00ean bi\u1ec7t n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n t\u1ed1i \u01b0u cho c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 v\u00e0 khung th\u1eddi gian giao d\u1ecbch.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c Giao D\u1ecbch To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc T\u1ed1i \u01afu cho C\u00e1c C\u00f4ng C\u1ee5 Natural Gas ETF 3x<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cho giao d\u1ecbch ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean khai th\u00e1c c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 n\u00e0y. C\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng minh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng. Khung th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch c\u1ef1c \u0111oan b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c z-score:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>z-score = (Gi\u00e1 Hi\u1ec7n T\u1ea1i - Trung B\u00ecnh \u0110\u1ed9ng 20 ng\u00e0y)\/(\u0110\u1ed9 L\u1ec7ch Chu\u1ea9n 20 ng\u00e0y)<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng cho giao d\u1ecbch ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x, backtest c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i v\u1edbi 3,750 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u n\u00e0y:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'><div class='po-table'><table><thead><tr><th>Th\u00f4ng S\u1ed1 Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/th><th>Ph\u1ea1m Vi T\u1ed1i \u01afu<\/th><th>L\u00fd Do To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng z-score v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh<\/td><td>-2.8 \u0111\u1ebfn -3.2 (b\u00e1n) \/ +2.6 \u0111\u1ebfn +3.0 (mua)<\/td><td>C\u1ef1c \u0111oan th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 99th percentile<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Th\u1eddi gian xem x\u00e9t l\u1ea1i<\/td><td>9-11 ng\u00e0y<\/td><td>C\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1ea3m nhi\u1ec5u v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td><td>z-score tr\u1edf v\u1ec1 \u00b10.4 \u0111\u1ebfn \u00b10.6<\/td><td>X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh &gt;87.5% \u1edf c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c n\u00e0y<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u0110\u1eb7t d\u1eebng l\u1ed7<\/td><td>z-score v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 \u00b14.0 \u0111\u1ebfn \u00b14.2<\/td><td>Ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea (99.997%)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng GARCH(1,1) c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc kh\u00e1c cho giao d\u1ecbch ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c l\u00e0:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>\u03c3t2&nbsp;= 0.000019 + 0.127\u03b5t-12&nbsp;+ 0.845\u03c3t-12<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh v\u1edbi 1,250 ng\u00e0y d\u1eef li\u1ec7u h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng chuy\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 sau:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'><ul class='po-article-page-list'><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u0103ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng &gt;15% = gi\u1ea3m k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed 40-50% ho\u1eb7c tho\u00e1t ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u1ea3m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng &gt;20% = t\u0103ng k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed 30-40% trong c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn &gt;2.2 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n = ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh v\u1edbi k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed 30%<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng duy tr\u00ec &lt;1.6% trong 5+ ng\u00e0y = k\u00e9o d\u00e0i th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ed1i \u0111a 12-14 ng\u00e0y<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t n\u00e0y cho giao d\u1ecbch ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng. Backtesting c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro cao h\u01a1n 1.8-2.4 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p theo d\u00f5i xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n khi \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x.<\/p><\/div>[cta_button text=\"\"]<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><h2 class='po-article-page__title'>K\u1ebft Lu\u1eadn: T\u00edch H\u1ee3p C\u00e1c Nguy\u00ean T\u1eafc To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc v\u00e0o Quy\u1ebft \u0110\u1ecbnh \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 Natural Gas ETF 3x<\/h2><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 Natural Gas ETF 3x \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tinh vi gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. Hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y\u2014t\u1eeb hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng g\u1ed9p \u0111\u1ebfn suy gi\u1ea3m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng\u2014bi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p n\u00e0y t\u1eeb c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc.<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc ch\u00ednh c\u1ea7n k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p trong chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n bao g\u1ed3m:<\/p><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'><ul class='po-article-page-list'><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Nh\u1eadn ra s\u1ef1 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc r\u1eb1ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n s\u1ebd kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 3\u00d7 m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef t\u1ed1i \u01b0u c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 cung c\u1ea5p<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh r\u1ee7i ro th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t cho c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>T\u00edch h\u1ee3p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea<\/li><li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00f4n tr\u1ecdng h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 r\u1ee7i ro khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i 3x<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'><p class='po-article-page__text'>Th\u00f4ng qua khung ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Pocket Option, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd, t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 trong khi qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00e1c r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1eb7c th\u00f9 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. S\u1ef1 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1edfng cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn ch\u00fang v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00edch h\u1ee3p.<\/p><\/div>","body_html_source":{"label":"Body HTML","type":"wysiwyg","formatted_value":"<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Hi\u1ec3u To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc \u0110\u1eb1ng Sau C\u00e1c S\u1ea3n Ph\u1ea9m Natural Gas ETF 3x<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 Natural gas ETF 3x \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng ph\u00e2n kh\u00fac ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a. C\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 giao d\u1ecbch trao \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y ba l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y g\u1ea5p 3 l\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean th\u00f4ng qua m\u1ed9t ki\u1ebfn tr\u00fac ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00e1i sinh, ho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed5i v\u00e0 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00fang c\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng g\u1ed9p phi tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n g\u1ea5p 3 l\u1ea7n trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i\u2014m\u1ed9t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc quan tr\u1ecdng t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u00f4ng th\u00e1i kh\u1ecfi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ebfn.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>C\u00f4ng Th\u1ee9c Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee8ng G\u1ed9p Trong C\u00e1c C\u00f4ng C\u1ee5 Natural Gas ETF 3x<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc gi\u1eefa l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf trong c\u00e1c ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng g\u1ed9p. C\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y n\u00e0y tu\u00e2n theo m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao vi\u1ec7c nh\u00e2n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi ba d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ednh to\u00e1n sai:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n<\/th>\n<th>C\u00f4ng Th\u1ee9c<\/th>\n<th>V\u00ed D\u1ee5 T\u00ednh To\u00e1n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Hi\u1ec7u Su\u1ea5t H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y ETF = 3 \u00d7 (L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1)<\/td>\n<td>N\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean t\u0103ng 2%: 3 \u00d7 2% = 6% l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ETF<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee8ng G\u1ed9p<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb ETFn&nbsp;= Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb ETFn-1&nbsp;\u00d7 (1 + 3 \u00d7 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0yn)<\/td>\n<td>$100 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh $106 sau ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ph\u1ee5 Thu\u1ed9c \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110i<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb Cu\u1ed1i C\u00f9ng ETF = Ban \u0110\u1ea7u \u00d7 \u220f[1 + 3(rt)]<\/td>\n<td>T\u00edch c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u1ea5u tr\u00fac to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng\u2014hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng minh n\u01a1i c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 \u00e2m li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp l\u00e0m x\u00f3i m\u00f2n v\u1ed1n trong c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y, ngay c\u1ea3 khi t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 di chuy\u1ec3n r\u00f2ng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h3 class='po-article-page__title'>\u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng S\u1ef1 Suy Gi\u1ea3m Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Trong C\u00e1c ETF C\u00f3 \u0110\u00f2n B\u1ea9y Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u1ed9i ng\u0169 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a Pocket Option \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trong c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m n\u00e0y l\u00e0:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n Suy Gi\u1ea3m Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/th>\n<th>Bi\u1ec3u Th\u1ee9c To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Th\u1ef1c T\u1ebf<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn K\u1ef3 V\u1ecdng<\/td>\n<td>E[RL] = L \u00d7 E[RU] &#8211; (L)(L-1)\u03c32\/2<\/td>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao h\u01a1n (\u03c3) tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp l\u00e0m x\u00f3i m\u00f2n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Chu\u1ed7i 2 Ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>(1+3r1)(1+3r2) \u2260 1+3(r1+r2)<\/td>\n<td>L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp g\u1ed9p phi tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>H\u1ec7 S\u1ed1 Nh\u00e2n Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/td>\n<td>\u03c3L&nbsp;= L \u00d7 \u03c3U<\/td>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ETF = 3 \u00d7 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y t\u1eeb 2.5-3.0%. \u00c1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c suy gi\u1ea3m cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y tr\u1ea3i qua s\u1ef1 x\u00f3i m\u00f2n h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y kho\u1ea3ng 0.56-0.81% (t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u00e0 L(L-1)\u03c32\/2), chuy\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng suy gi\u1ea3m h\u00e0ng n\u0103m 75-120% ngay c\u1ea3 trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c C\u00e2n B\u1eb1ng L\u1ea1i v\u00e0 T\u1ed1i \u01afu H\u00f3a To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc cho C\u00e1c V\u1ecb Tr\u00ed Natural Gas ETF 3x<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c khung c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1i to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc thay v\u00ec c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p mua v\u00e0 gi\u1eef th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i v\u1ec1 15 n\u0103m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean ch\u1ee9ng minh t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Backtesting \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Pocket Option ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c gi\u1eefa bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef t\u1ed1i \u01b0u:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Ph\u1ea1m Vi Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y (\u03c3)<\/th>\n<th>Th\u1eddi Gian N\u1eafm Gi\u1eef T\u1ed1i \u0110a T\u1ed1i \u01afu<\/th>\n<th>S\u1ef1 Suy Gi\u1ea3m Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb K\u1ef3 V\u1ecdng<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>0-1.5%<\/td>\n<td>10-14 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch<\/td>\n<td>~7% suy gi\u1ea3m l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1.5-3.0%<\/td>\n<td>5-9 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch<\/td>\n<td>~12% suy gi\u1ea3m l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>3.0-4.5%<\/td>\n<td>2-4 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch<\/td>\n<td>~18% suy gi\u1ea3m l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>&gt;4.5%<\/td>\n<td>0-1 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch<\/td>\n<td>&gt;25% suy gi\u1ea3m l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1i t\u1ed1i \u01b0u cho c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Kho\u1ea3ng C\u00e2n B\u1eb1ng L\u1ea1i T\u1ed1i \u01afu = \u221a(2c\/L(L-1)\u03c32)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Trong \u0111\u00f3: c = chi ph\u00ed giao d\u1ecbch (th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 0.05-0.15%), L = h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y (3), v\u00e0 \u03c3 = bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y (bi\u1ec3u th\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng th\u1eadp ph\u00e2n)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch T\u01b0\u01a1ng Quan v\u00e0 M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea cho \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 Natural Gas ETF 3x<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ef1 di chuy\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i v\u1ec1 1,250 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan ch\u00ednh n\u00e0y gi\u1eefa hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x v\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 T\u01b0\u01a1ng Quan<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u1ea1m Vi H\u1ec7 S\u1ed1 Pearson<\/th>\n<th>\u00dd Ngh\u0129a Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea (p-value)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ec7ch th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft<\/td>\n<td>0.72-0.85<\/td>\n<td>&lt;0.001<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean b\u00e1o c\u00e1o l\u01b0u tr\u1eef<\/td>\n<td>0.68-0.79<\/td>\n<td>&lt;0.001<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t<\/td>\n<td>0.58-0.75<\/td>\n<td>&lt;0.005<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7<\/td>\n<td>0.22-0.45<\/td>\n<td>&lt;0.05<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>D\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y ETF ng\u00e0nh n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n<\/td>\n<td>0.35-0.55<\/td>\n<td>&lt;0.01<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh cho c\u00e1c thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a Pocket Option v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 di chuy\u1ec3n gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng 62-68%\u2014cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean 50% v\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00fang c\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h3 class='po-article-page__title'>Khung Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch H\u1ed3i Quy cho D\u1ef1 \u0110o\u00e1n ETF C\u00f3 \u0110\u00f2n B\u1ea9y Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ef1 di chuy\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy l\u00e0:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn ETF = \u03b2\u2080 + \u03b2\u2081(L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn Giao Ngay Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean) + \u03b2\u2082(Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng) + \u03b2\u2083(Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 Contango\/Backwardation) + \u03b2\u2084(Bi\u1ebfn S\u1ed1 M\u00f9a) + \u03b5<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh v\u1edbi 1,258 ng\u00e0y d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u1ed3i quy n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea sau:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Bi\u1ebfn S\u1ed1<\/th>\n<th>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb H\u1ec7 S\u1ed1<\/th>\n<th>L\u1ed7i Chu\u1ea9n<\/th>\n<th>t-Statistic<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Intercept (\u03b2\u2080)<\/td>\n<td>-0.0012<\/td>\n<td>0.0005<\/td>\n<td>-2.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn Giao Ngay Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean (\u03b2\u2081)<\/td>\n<td>2.87<\/td>\n<td>0.08<\/td>\n<td>35.875<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng (\u03b2\u2082)<\/td>\n<td>-0.42<\/td>\n<td>0.11<\/td>\n<td>-3.818<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Contango\/Backwardation (\u03b2\u2083)<\/td>\n<td>-0.28<\/td>\n<td>0.09<\/td>\n<td>-3.111<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn S\u1ed1 M\u00f9a (\u03b2\u2084)<\/td>\n<td>0.18<\/td>\n<td>0.07<\/td>\n<td>2.571<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn giao ngay kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean (\u03b2\u2081) l\u00e0 2.87 thay v\u00ec 3.00 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac trong c\u00e1c ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y. H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 \u00e2m cho bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng (-0.42) x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng suy gi\u1ea3m to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, trong khi h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 contango \u00e2m (-0.28) ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1ch c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>T\u00ednh To\u00e1n T\u00edch H\u1ee3p Danh M\u1ee5c \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 cho C\u00e1c C\u00f4ng C\u1ee5 Natural Gas ETF 3x<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u cho c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m r\u1ee7i ro khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i. Ti\u00eau ch\u00ed Kelly s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i cung c\u1ea5p t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>f* = (p(b) &#8211; q)\/b<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Trong \u0111\u00f3: p = x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, q = x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t thua l\u1ed7 (1-p), v\u00e0 b = t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1eafng\/thua<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i v\u1ec1 15 n\u0103m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean mang l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y\u2014nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 theo tr\u1ef1c gi\u00e1c:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>H\u1ed3 S\u01a1 R\u1ee7i Ro Nh\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u00e2n B\u1ed5 T\u1ed1i \u0110a T\u00ednh To\u00e1n<\/th>\n<th>L\u00fd Do<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>B\u1ea3o Th\u1ee7<\/td>\n<td>0.5-2%<\/td>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao h\u01a1n 3.5 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi S&amp;P 500 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Trung B\u00ecnh<\/td>\n<td>2-5%<\/td>\n<td>T\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc g\u1ee3i \u00fd ch\u1ec9 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u00edch C\u1ef1c<\/td>\n<td>5-8%<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n tr\u00ean d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c Kelly v\u1edbi p=0.55, b=1.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0110\u1ea7u C\u01a1<\/td>\n<td>8-12%<\/td>\n<td>V\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc 25-50%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft Danh M\u1ee5c \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 Hi\u1ec7n \u0110\u1ea1i b\u1ed5 sung cho khung n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Sharpe:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Sharpe = (Rp&nbsp;&#8211; Rf)\/\u03c3p<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Trong \u0111\u00f3: Rp&nbsp;= l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn danh m\u1ee5c, Rf&nbsp;= t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng r\u1ee7i ro (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 3.75-4.00%), v\u00e0 \u03c3p&nbsp;= \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n danh m\u1ee5c<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h3 class='po-article-page__title'>K\u1ecbch B\u1ea3n Ph\u00e2n B\u1ed5 T\u1ed1i \u01afu D\u1ef1a Tr\u00ean \u0110i\u1ec1u Ki\u1ec7n Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a Pocket Option t\u1ea1o ra ma tr\u1eadn quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'>\n<ul class='po-article-page-list'>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng (ADX &gt;25) + bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ea5p (ATR &lt;3%) = ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u0111a (trong gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n r\u1ee7i ro)<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng (ADX &gt;25) + bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao (ATR &gt;3%) = 50% ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u0111a v\u1edbi d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 15%<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i ngang (ADX &lt;20) + bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ea5p (ATR &lt;3%) = 25% ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u0111a v\u1edbi ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba ETF ng\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i ngang (ADX &lt;20) + bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao (ATR &gt;3%) = kh\u00f4ng ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 (k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u00e2m)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c, c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt v\u00e0 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>K\u00edch Th\u01b0\u1edbc V\u1ecb Tr\u00ed = (Kh\u1ea3 N\u0103ng Ch\u1ecbu R\u1ee7i Ro T\u00e0i Kho\u1ea3n \u00d7 Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 S\u1ee9c M\u1ea1nh Xu H\u01b0\u1edbng)\/(ATR \u00d7 3)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Trong \u0111\u00f3: Kh\u1ea3 N\u0103ng Ch\u1ecbu R\u1ee7i Ro T\u00e0i Kho\u1ea3n = m\u1ee9c l\u1ed7 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn t\u1ed1i \u0111a (th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 0.5-2%), Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 S\u1ee9c M\u1ea1nh Xu H\u01b0\u1edbng = ADX\/20, v\u00e0 ATR = Ph\u1ea1m Vi Th\u1ef1c Trung B\u00ecnh 14 ng\u00e0y bi\u1ec3u th\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng R\u1ee7i Ro cho Giao D\u1ecbch ETF C\u00f3 \u0110\u00f2n B\u1ea9y Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn cho c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n. C\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb R\u1ee7i Ro (VaR) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t cho c\u00e1c ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1c t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c VaR tham s\u1ed1 cho c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>VaR = P \u00d7 z \u00d7 \u03c3 \u00d7 \u221at<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Trong \u0111\u00f3: P = gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb v\u1ecb tr\u00ed, z = \u0111i\u1ec3m z tin c\u1eady (1.645 cho 95%, 2.326 cho 99%), \u03c3 = bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y, v\u00e0 t = th\u1eddi gian trong ng\u00e0y<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t v\u1ecb tr\u00ed $10,000 trong m\u1ed9t ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y 2.5%, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i t\u00ednh to\u00e1n VaR m\u1ed9t tu\u1ea7n \u1edf m\u1ee9c tin c\u1eady 95% nh\u01b0 sau:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Th\u00e0nh Ph\u1ea7n<\/th>\n<th>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb<\/th>\n<th>Gi\u1ea3i Th\u00edch<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb V\u1ecb Tr\u00ed (P)<\/td>\n<td>$10,000<\/td>\n<td>S\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ban \u0111\u1ea7u<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0110i\u1ec3m z (tin c\u1eady 95%)<\/td>\n<td>1.645<\/td>\n<td>Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 tin c\u1eady th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y (\u03c3)<\/td>\n<td>2.5% \u00d7 3 = 7.5%<\/td>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y (3x c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Th\u1eddi Gian (t)<\/td>\n<td>\u221a5 = 2.236<\/td>\n<td>C\u0103n b\u1eadc hai c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>VaR T\u00ednh To\u00e1n<\/td>\n<td>$2,763<\/td>\n<td>$10,000 \u00d7 1.645 \u00d7 0.075 \u00d7 2.236 = $2,763<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 ra m\u1ee9c tin c\u1eady 95% r\u1eb1ng t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 $2,763. Tuy nhi\u00ean, r\u1ee7i ro \u0111u\u00f4i quan tr\u1ecdng 5% c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t $6,500-$8,750 trong c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan do c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo cung c\u1ea5p \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u1ea1o ra h\u01a1n 10,000 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'>\n<ul class='po-article-page-list'>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>C\u00e1c th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ea3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y l\u1ecbch s\u1eed 2.5-3.0% v\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 suy gi\u1ea3m h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 0.56-0.81%<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch \u00e2m r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t (-0.35 \u0111\u1ebfn -0.65) v\u1edbi kurtosis d\u01b0 th\u1eeba (3.8-5.2) do hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Ma tr\u1eadn t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn s\u00e1u bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean quan bao g\u1ed3m gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>C\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ki\u1ec3m tra c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00f3a c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n 3.5-4.5 x\u1ea3y ra kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n m\u1ed7i n\u0103m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc tinh vi n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng r\u1ee7i ro bi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng, cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed h\u1ee3p l\u00fd cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng Ph\u00e1p Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Hi\u1ec7u Su\u1ea5t cho \u0110\u00e1nh Gi\u00e1 ETF C\u00f3 \u0110\u00f2n B\u1ea9y Kh\u00ed \u0110\u1ed1t T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 chuy\u00ean bi\u1ec7t t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. C\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n t\u1ea1o ra k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 g\u00e2y hi\u1ec3u l\u1ea7m khi \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh th\u00edch h\u1ee3p.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Khung \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu n\u00e0y:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 Hi\u1ec7u Su\u1ea5t<\/th>\n<th>C\u00f4ng Th\u1ee9c Ti\u00eau Chu\u1ea9n<\/th>\n<th>\u0110i\u1ec1u Ch\u1ec9nh ETF C\u00f3 \u0110\u00f2n B\u1ea9y<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>So S\u00e1nh L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn ETF vs. L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1<\/td>\n<td>L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn ETF vs. (3 \u00d7 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 &#8211; Suy Gi\u1ea3m K\u1ef3 V\u1ecdng)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>L\u1ed7i Theo D\u00f5i<\/td>\n<td>\u03c3(L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn ETF &#8211; L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1)<\/td>\n<td>\u03c3(L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn ETF &#8211; 3 \u00d7 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn H\u00e0ng Ng\u00e0y Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Sharpe S\u1eeda \u0110\u1ed5i<\/td>\n<td>(Rp&nbsp;&#8211; Rf)\/\u03c3p<\/td>\n<td>(Rp&nbsp;&#8211; Rf)\/(3 \u00d7 \u03c3c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Beta \u0110i\u1ec1u Ch\u1ec9nh \u0110\u00f2n B\u1ea9y<\/td>\n<td>Cov(rETF, rindex)\/Var(rindex)<\/td>\n<td>Beta\/3 (Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng = 1.0)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i v\u1ec1 t\u00e1m s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x kh\u00e1c nhau ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 theo d\u00f5i, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u1ed7i theo d\u00f5i h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 0.05% \u0111\u1ebfn 0.25%. Nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t t\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eebng nh\u1ecf n\u00e0y g\u1ed9p l\u1ea1i th\u00e0nh s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t 12-60% trong m\u1ed9t n\u0103m \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh, l\u00e0m cho vi\u1ec7c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ETF tr\u1edf n\u00ean c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 quan tr\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>N\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Pocket Option \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc chuy\u00ean bi\u1ec7t n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n t\u1ed1i \u01b0u cho c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 v\u00e0 khung th\u1eddi gian giao d\u1ecbch.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c Giao D\u1ecbch To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc T\u1ed1i \u01afu cho C\u00e1c C\u00f4ng C\u1ee5 Natural Gas ETF 3x<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cho giao d\u1ecbch ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean khai th\u00e1c c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 n\u00e0y. C\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee9ng minh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng. Khung th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch c\u1ef1c \u0111oan b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c z-score:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>z-score = (Gi\u00e1 Hi\u1ec7n T\u1ea1i &#8211; Trung B\u00ecnh \u0110\u1ed9ng 20 ng\u00e0y)\/(\u0110\u1ed9 L\u1ec7ch Chu\u1ea9n 20 ng\u00e0y)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng cho giao d\u1ecbch ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x, backtest c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i v\u1edbi 3,750 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u n\u00e0y:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article po-article-page__table'>\n<div class='po-table'>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Th\u00f4ng S\u1ed1 Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u1ea1m Vi T\u1ed1i \u01afu<\/th>\n<th>L\u00fd Do To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng z-score v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh<\/td>\n<td>-2.8 \u0111\u1ebfn -3.2 (b\u00e1n) \/ +2.6 \u0111\u1ebfn +3.0 (mua)<\/td>\n<td>C\u1ef1c \u0111oan th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 99th percentile<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Th\u1eddi gian xem x\u00e9t l\u1ea1i<\/td>\n<td>9-11 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<td>C\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1ea3m nhi\u1ec5u v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>z-score tr\u1edf v\u1ec1 \u00b10.4 \u0111\u1ebfn \u00b10.6<\/td>\n<td>X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh &gt;87.5% \u1edf c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c n\u00e0y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0110\u1eb7t d\u1eebng l\u1ed7<\/td>\n<td>z-score v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 \u00b14.0 \u0111\u1ebfn \u00b14.2<\/td>\n<td>Ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea (99.997%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng GARCH(1,1) c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc kh\u00e1c cho giao d\u1ecbch ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c l\u00e0:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>\u03c3t2&nbsp;= 0.000019 + 0.127\u03b5t-12&nbsp;+ 0.845\u03c3t-12<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>\u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh v\u1edbi 1,250 ng\u00e0y d\u1eef li\u1ec7u h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng chuy\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 sau:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'>\n<ul class='po-article-page-list'>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u0103ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng &gt;15% = gi\u1ea3m k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed 40-50% ho\u1eb7c tho\u00e1t ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u1ea3m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng &gt;20% = t\u0103ng k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed 30-40% trong c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn &gt;2.2 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n = ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh v\u1edbi k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed 30%<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng duy tr\u00ec &lt;1.6% trong 5+ ng\u00e0y = k\u00e9o d\u00e0i th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ed1i \u0111a 12-14 ng\u00e0y<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t n\u00e0y cho giao d\u1ecbch ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng. Backtesting c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro cao h\u01a1n 1.8-2.4 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p theo d\u00f5i xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n khi \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n    <div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article\">\n        <a href=\"\/en\/quick-start\/\" class=\"po-line-banner po-article-page__line-banner\">\n            <svg class=\"svg-image po-line-banner__logo\" fill=\"currentColor\" width=\"auto\" height=\"auto\"\n                 aria-hidden=\"true\">\n                <use href=\"#svg-img-logo-white\"><\/use>\n            <\/svg>\n            <span class=\"po-line-banner__btn\"><\/span>\n        <\/a>\n    <\/div>\n    \n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<h2 class='po-article-page__title'>K\u1ebft Lu\u1eadn: T\u00edch H\u1ee3p C\u00e1c Nguy\u00ean T\u1eafc To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc v\u00e0o Quy\u1ebft \u0110\u1ecbnh \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 Natural Gas ETF 3x<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 Natural Gas ETF 3x \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tinh vi gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang. Hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y\u2014t\u1eeb hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng g\u1ed9p \u0111\u1ebfn suy gi\u1ea3m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng\u2014bi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p n\u00e0y t\u1eeb c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i giao d\u1ecbch c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>C\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc ch\u00ednh c\u1ea7n k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p trong chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n bao g\u1ed3m:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm article-content po-article-page__text'>\n<ul class='po-article-page-list'>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Nh\u1eadn ra s\u1ef1 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc r\u1eb1ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n s\u1ebd kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 3\u00d7 m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef t\u1ed1i \u01b0u c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 cung c\u1ea5p<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh r\u1ee7i ro th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t cho c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>T\u00edch h\u1ee3p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea<\/li>\n<li class='po-article-page__text po-article-page__text_no-margin po-list-lvl_1'>Th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00f4n tr\u1ecdng h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 r\u1ee7i ro khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i 3x<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class='po-container po-container_width_article-sm'>\n<p class='po-article-page__text'>Th\u00f4ng qua khung ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Pocket Option, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch ETF kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd, t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 trong khi qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00e1c r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1eb7c th\u00f9 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. S\u1ef1 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1edfng cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn ch\u00fang v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00edch h\u1ee3p.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n"},"faq":[{"question":"Th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ETF kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x l\u00e0 g\u00ec?","answer":"Th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng l\u00e3i k\u00e9p v\u00e0 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y. C\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y, t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc so v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng 3x trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n d\u00e0i h\u01a1n. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1eb1ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a ETF = Ban \u0111\u1ea7u \u00d7 \u220f[1 + 3(rt)], trong \u0111\u00f3 t\u00edch c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t. Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n suy gi\u1ea3m do bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ec3u th\u1ecb l\u00e0 E[RL] = L \u00d7 E[RU] - (L)(L-1)\u03c3\u00b2\/2, cho th\u1ea5y ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1ch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao h\u01a1n t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 x\u00f3i m\u00f2n v\u1ed1n. V\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0 2.5-3.0%, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y 0.56-0.81%--c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u00f3i m\u00f2n 75-120% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m ngay c\u1ea3 trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh."},{"question":"L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00f4i t\u00ednh to\u00e1n th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef t\u1ed1i \u01b0u cho m\u1ed9t qu\u1ef9 ETF \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"Th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef t\u1ed1i \u01b0u ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0o m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y t\u1eeb 0-1.5%, gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n n\u1eafm gi\u1eef t\u1ed1i \u0111a t\u1eeb 10-14 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 1.5-3.0% (ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean), gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n v\u1ecb th\u1ebf t\u1eeb 5-9 ng\u00e0y. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 3.0-4.5%, gi\u1ea3m th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n 2-4 ng\u00e0y. Trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 4.5%, giao d\u1ecbch trong ng\u00e0y tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p duy nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian t\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng t\u1ed1i \u01b0u l\u00e0: \u221a(2c\/L(L-1)\u03c3\u00b2) trong \u0111\u00f3 c \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho chi ph\u00ed giao d\u1ecbch (th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 0.05-0.15%), L l\u00e0 h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y (3), v\u00e0 \u03c3 l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ec3u th\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng th\u1eadp ph\u00e2n."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0o t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a qu\u1ef9 ETF kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x?","answer":"C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n y\u00eau c\u1ea7u \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y. Thay v\u00ec so s\u00e1nh l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ETF v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1, h\u00e3y so s\u00e1nh ch\u00fang v\u1edbi (3 \u00d7 L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 - S\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng). Thay th\u1ebf sai s\u1ed1 theo d\u00f5i ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n b\u1eb1ng \u03c3(L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ETF - 3 \u00d7 L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 H\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y). S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Sharpe \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh l\u00e0 (Rp - Rf)\/(3 \u00d7 \u03c3c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n). T\u00ednh Beta \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y l\u00e0 Beta\/3, v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u00e0 1.0. \u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro, \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb r\u1ee7i ro b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng VaR = P \u00d7 z \u00d7 \u03c3 \u00d7 \u221at, trong \u0111\u00f3 P l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb v\u1ecb th\u1ebf, z l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m z tin c\u1eady (1.645 cho 95%), \u03c3 l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n 3x, v\u00e0 t l\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn t\u00ednh b\u1eb1ng ng\u00e0y. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean cung c\u1ea5p \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n nh\u1ea5t."},{"question":"T\u00f4i n\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb th\u1ebf nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o trong c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb th\u1ebf n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 do bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i g\u1ea5p 3 l\u1ea7n. Ti\u00eau ch\u00ed Kelly s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i (f* = (p(b) - q)\/b) th\u01b0\u1eddng cho ra ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u0111a t\u1eeb 0.5-2% cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7, 2-5% cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i, 5-8% cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c (d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean p=0.55, b=1.2), v\u00e0 8-12% cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh theo bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng: K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc V\u1ecb th\u1ebf = (Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn R\u1ee7i ro T\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n \u00d7 Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 S\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng)\/(ATR \u00d7 3), trong \u0111\u00f3 Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn R\u1ee7i ro T\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c l\u1ed7 t\u1ed1i \u0111a b\u1ea1n ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn (th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 0.5-2%), Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 S\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng b\u1eb1ng ADX\/20, v\u00e0 ATR l\u00e0 Ph\u1ea1m vi Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf Trung b\u00ecnh 14 ng\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ec3u th\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m. Gi\u1ea3m k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb th\u1ebf t\u1eeb 40-50% khi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u0103ng >15%."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ETF kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x?","answer":"C\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh l\u00e0 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, khai th\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c z-score (z-score = (Gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i - Trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng 20 ng\u00e0y)\/(\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n 20 ng\u00e0y)) x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o t\u1ed1i \u01b0u t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c z-score t\u1eeb -2.8 \u0111\u1ebfn -3.2 (cho c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o ng\u1eafn) ho\u1eb7c +2.6 \u0111\u1ebfn +3.0 (cho c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o d\u00e0i), v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m tho\u00e1t khi z-score tr\u1edf v\u1ec1 \u00b10.4 \u0111\u1ebfn \u00b10.6. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng GARCH(1,1) c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i (\u03c3t\u00b2 = 0.000019 + 0.127\u03b5t-1\u00b2 + 0.845\u03c3t-1\u00b2) cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf kh\u00e1c b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00e1c thay \u0111\u1ed5i bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho c\u00e1c t\u0103ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng >15% ho\u1eb7c gi\u1ea3m >20%. Ki\u1ec3m tra l\u1ea1i cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro cao h\u01a1n 1.8-2.4 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng."}],"faq_source":{"label":"FAQ","type":"repeater","formatted_value":[{"question":"Th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ETF kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x l\u00e0 g\u00ec?","answer":"Th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng l\u00e3i k\u00e9p v\u00e0 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y. C\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y, t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc so v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng 3x trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n d\u00e0i h\u01a1n. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1eb1ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a ETF = Ban \u0111\u1ea7u \u00d7 \u220f[1 + 3(rt)], trong \u0111\u00f3 t\u00edch c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t. Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n suy gi\u1ea3m do bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ec3u th\u1ecb l\u00e0 E[RL] = L \u00d7 E[RU] - (L)(L-1)\u03c3\u00b2\/2, cho th\u1ea5y ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1ch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao h\u01a1n t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 x\u00f3i m\u00f2n v\u1ed1n. V\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean l\u00e0 2.5-3.0%, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y 0.56-0.81%--c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u00f3i m\u00f2n 75-120% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m ngay c\u1ea3 trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh."},{"question":"L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00f4i t\u00ednh to\u00e1n th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef t\u1ed1i \u01b0u cho m\u1ed9t qu\u1ef9 ETF \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"Th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef t\u1ed1i \u01b0u ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0o m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y t\u1eeb 0-1.5%, gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n n\u1eafm gi\u1eef t\u1ed1i \u0111a t\u1eeb 10-14 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 1.5-3.0% (ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean), gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n v\u1ecb th\u1ebf t\u1eeb 5-9 ng\u00e0y. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 3.0-4.5%, gi\u1ea3m th\u1eddi gian n\u1eafm gi\u1eef ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n 2-4 ng\u00e0y. Trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 4.5%, giao d\u1ecbch trong ng\u00e0y tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p duy nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian t\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng t\u1ed1i \u01b0u l\u00e0: \u221a(2c\/L(L-1)\u03c3\u00b2) trong \u0111\u00f3 c \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho chi ph\u00ed giao d\u1ecbch (th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 0.05-0.15%), L l\u00e0 h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y (3), v\u00e0 \u03c3 l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ec3u th\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng th\u1eadp ph\u00e2n."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0o t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a qu\u1ef9 ETF kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x?","answer":"C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n y\u00eau c\u1ea7u \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y. Thay v\u00ec so s\u00e1nh l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ETF v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1, h\u00e3y so s\u00e1nh ch\u00fang v\u1edbi (3 \u00d7 L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 - S\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng). Thay th\u1ebf sai s\u1ed1 theo d\u00f5i ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n b\u1eb1ng \u03c3(L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ETF - 3 \u00d7 L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 H\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y). S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Sharpe \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh l\u00e0 (Rp - Rf)\/(3 \u00d7 \u03c3c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n). T\u00ednh Beta \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y l\u00e0 Beta\/3, v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u00e0 1.0. \u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro, \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb r\u1ee7i ro b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng VaR = P \u00d7 z \u00d7 \u03c3 \u00d7 \u221at, trong \u0111\u00f3 P l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb v\u1ecb th\u1ebf, z l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m z tin c\u1eady (1.645 cho 95%), \u03c3 l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n 3x, v\u00e0 t l\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn t\u00ednh b\u1eb1ng ng\u00e0y. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean cung c\u1ea5p \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n nh\u1ea5t."},{"question":"T\u00f4i n\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb th\u1ebf nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o trong c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean?","answer":"K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb th\u1ebf n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 do bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i g\u1ea5p 3 l\u1ea7n. Ti\u00eau ch\u00ed Kelly s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i (f* = (p(b) - q)\/b) th\u01b0\u1eddng cho ra ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u0111a t\u1eeb 0.5-2% cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7, 2-5% cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i, 5-8% cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c (d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean p=0.55, b=1.2), v\u00e0 8-12% cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh theo bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng: K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc V\u1ecb th\u1ebf = (Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn R\u1ee7i ro T\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n \u00d7 Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 S\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng)\/(ATR \u00d7 3), trong \u0111\u00f3 Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn R\u1ee7i ro T\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c l\u1ed7 t\u1ed1i \u0111a b\u1ea1n ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn (th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 0.5-2%), Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 S\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng b\u1eb1ng ADX\/20, v\u00e0 ATR l\u00e0 Ph\u1ea1m vi Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf Trung b\u00ecnh 14 ng\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ec3u th\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m. Gi\u1ea3m k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb th\u1ebf t\u1eeb 40-50% khi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u0103ng >15%."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ETF kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 3x?","answer":"C\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed3i quy trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh l\u00e0 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, khai th\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c z-score (z-score = (Gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i - Trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng 20 ng\u00e0y)\/(\u0110\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch chu\u1ea9n 20 ng\u00e0y)) x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o t\u1ed1i \u01b0u t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c z-score t\u1eeb -2.8 \u0111\u1ebfn -3.2 (cho c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o ng\u1eafn) ho\u1eb7c +2.6 \u0111\u1ebfn +3.0 (cho c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o d\u00e0i), v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m tho\u00e1t khi z-score tr\u1edf v\u1ec1 \u00b10.4 \u0111\u1ebfn \u00b10.6. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng GARCH(1,1) c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i (\u03c3t\u00b2 = 0.000019 + 0.127\u03b5t-1\u00b2 + 0.845\u03c3t-1\u00b2) cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf kh\u00e1c b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00e1c thay \u0111\u1ed5i bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho c\u00e1c t\u0103ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng >15% ho\u1eb7c gi\u1ea3m >20%. Ki\u1ec3m tra l\u1ea1i cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro cao h\u01a1n 1.8-2.4 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng."}]}},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Qu\u1ef9 ETF Kh\u00ed T\u1ef1 Nhi\u00ean 3x: Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc cho Tri\u1ec3n Khai Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/vt\/knowledge-base\/trading\/natural-gas-etf-3x\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Qu\u1ef9 ETF 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