{"id":309406,"date":"2025-07-16T09:22:13","date_gmt":"2025-07-16T09:22:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/news-events\/data\/bitcoin-going-up-2\/"},"modified":"2025-07-16T09:22:13","modified_gmt":"2025-07-16T09:22:13","slug":"bitcoin-going-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/vt\/knowledge-base\/markets\/bitcoin-going-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin T\u0103ng Gi\u00e1: 5 Khung L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn \u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c C\u00e1c Nh\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 H\u00e0ng \u0110\u1ea7u S\u1eed D\u1ee5ng"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":50,"featured_media":250351,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[48,39,44],"class_list":["post-309406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-crypto","tag-platform","tag-strategy"],"acf":{"h1":"Pocket Option: K\u1ebf Ho\u1ea1ch T\u1ed1i \u01afu H\u00f3a L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn Khi Bitcoin T\u0103ng Gi\u00e1","h1_source":{"label":"H1","type":"text","formatted_value":"Pocket Option: K\u1ebf Ho\u1ea1ch T\u1ed1i \u01afu H\u00f3a L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn Khi Bitcoin T\u0103ng Gi\u00e1"},"description":"Bitcoin t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 13,7 t\u1ef7 USD. N\u1eafm v\u1eefng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 5 khung m\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 tinh hoa tri\u1ec3n khai tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n c\u00fa s\u1ed1c cung v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng Hai. Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ef1c thi t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft.","description_source":{"label":"Description","type":"textarea","formatted_value":"Bitcoin t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 13,7 t\u1ef7 USD. N\u1eafm v\u1eefng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 5 khung m\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 tinh hoa tri\u1ec3n khai tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n c\u00fa s\u1ed1c cung v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng Hai. Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ef1c thi t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft."},"intro":"Khi chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a bitcoin b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u, 83% nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb ch\u1ec9 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 37% l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch b\u00e1m v\u00e0o c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00edch l\u0169y l\u1ed7i th\u1eddi - trong khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1edbi 76% l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c khung \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tri\u1ec3n khai b\u1edfi Renaissance Technologies, Pantera Capital v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 \u01b0u t\u00fa kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cao h\u01a1n 47%, chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh 30-40% th\u00e0nh c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, v\u00e0 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c b\u1eadc thang tho\u00e1t 5 t\u1ea7ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i h\u01a1n chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c mua v\u00e0 gi\u1eef 27% m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng. N\u1eafm v\u1eefng c\u00e1c khung t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0y ngay b\u00e2y gi\u1edd, tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n ETF tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 25 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 n\u00e9n cung ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3.","intro_source":{"label":"Intro","type":"text","formatted_value":"Khi chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a bitcoin b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u, 83% nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb ch\u1ec9 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 37% l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch b\u00e1m v\u00e0o c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00edch l\u0169y l\u1ed7i th\u1eddi - trong khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1edbi 76% l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c khung \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tri\u1ec3n khai b\u1edfi Renaissance Technologies, Pantera Capital v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 \u01b0u t\u00fa kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cao h\u01a1n 47%, chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh 30-40% th\u00e0nh c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, v\u00e0 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c b\u1eadc thang tho\u00e1t 5 t\u1ea7ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i h\u01a1n chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c mua v\u00e0 gi\u1eef 27% m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng. N\u1eafm v\u1eefng c\u00e1c khung t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0y ngay b\u00e2y gi\u1edd, tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n ETF tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 25 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 n\u00e9n cung ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3."},"body_html":"

Gi\u1ea3i m\u00e3 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c chu k\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a Bitcoin<\/h2><\/div>

C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi l\u1eb7p \u0111i l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i \"t\u1ea1i sao BTC t\u0103ng gi\u00e1\" c\u00f3 c\u00e1c d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c\u2014\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn qua 3.784 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2013\u2014ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh tuy\u00ean truy\u1ec1n. C\u00e1c khung chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac.<\/p><\/div>

Trong khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch b\u00e1n l\u1ebb t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt tr\u1ec5 (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands), c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p nh\u01b0 Jump Trading v\u00e0 Alameda Research ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c khung \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c b\u1eadc b\u1ed1n, x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 2-3 tu\u1ea7n m\u00e0 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00e3 mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro cao h\u01a1n 67-94% qua ba chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd bi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p><\/div>

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 s\u1ef1 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n \u0111\u00e1ng kinh ng\u1ea1c trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a Bitcoin. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, khi RSI h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 65 sau khi n\u1ed5i l\u00ean t\u1eeb c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c d\u01b0\u1edbi 40 trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t, Bitcoin \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng th\u00eam 47-83 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi tr\u1ea3i qua s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 (>15%) v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 78% qua c\u1ea3 ba chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00ednh (2013-14, 2016-17, 2020-21). L\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u00e1c khung \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c.<\/p><\/div>

Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c<\/th>\u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u1eadn d\u1ea1ng<\/th>Th\u1eddi gian trung b\u00ecnh<\/th>L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u<\/th>T\u00edn hi\u1ec7u v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh ch\u00ednh<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
T\u00edch l\u0169y s\u1edbm<\/td>Gi\u1ea3m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, gi\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, gi\u00e1 \u0111i ngang<\/td>143 ng\u00e0y<\/td>+27%<\/td>DCA c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng v\u1edbi 25% v\u1ed1n<\/td>RSI h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua 55 sau khi gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 35<\/td><\/tr>
X\u00e1c nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1<\/td>M\u1edf r\u1ed9ng kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 ch\u00ednh<\/td>32 ng\u00e0y<\/td>+61%<\/td>Tri\u1ec3n khai v\u1ed1n t\u00edch c\u1ef1c (50% c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i)<\/td>Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 trung b\u00ecnh 30 ng\u00e0y 2,5 l\u1ea7n v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean 200MA<\/td><\/tr>
T\u0103ng t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c<\/td>T\u0103ng s\u1ef1 ch\u00fa \u00fd c\u1ee7a truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ec9 m\u1edbi, b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u FOMO<\/td>76 ng\u00e0y<\/td>+118%<\/td>B\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ch\u1ed1t l\u1eddi chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c (25% v\u1ecb tr\u00ed)<\/td>Ba l\u1ea7n \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp tr\u00ean kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3<\/td><\/tr>
Th\u1ed5i ph\u1ed3ng h\u01b0ng ph\u1ea5n<\/td>H\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 parabol, t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u1ef1c \u0111oan, ng\u1eaft k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1<\/td>17 ng\u00e0y<\/td>+94%<\/td>Gi\u1ea3m v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ch\u00ednh (50-75% ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i)<\/td>\u0110\u1ec9nh kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1edbi 3+ n\u1ebfn parabol li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ng\u00e0y 23 th\u00e1ng 10 n\u0103m 2023 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u00edch l\u0169y s\u1edbm v\u00e0 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1, khi 7 ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u0103n ch\u1ec9nh. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y kh\u1edbp ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chu\u1ed7i ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n chu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2020, th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2019 v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 7 n\u0103m 2016\u2014m\u1ed7i chu k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ec1u t\u0103ng 94-247% trong 4-6 th\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfp theo. Khung chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c quan tr\u1ecdng cho vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng v\u1ecb tr\u00ed.<\/p><\/div>

\u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/h2><\/div>

Khi xem x\u00e9t t\u1ea1i sao BTC t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 trong Q1 2024, d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c\u2014\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c minh qua c\u00e1c h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 SEC Form 13F cho th\u1ea5y 13,7 t\u1ef7 USD trong c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed Bitcoin m\u1edbi\u2014\u0111\u00e3 thay th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea1o, thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c chu k\u1ef3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 87% do b\u00e1n l\u1ebb \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n n\u0103m 2017 v\u00e0 64% do b\u00e1n l\u1ebb \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n n\u0103m 2021. S\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac n\u00e0y \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c khung ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng.<\/p><\/div>

Vi\u1ec7c SEC ph\u00ea duy\u1ec7t 11 ETF Bitcoin giao ngay v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 10 th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2024\u2014sau cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn ph\u00e1p l\u00fd k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 10 n\u0103m tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 250 tri\u1ec7u USD c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c g\u00e3 kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 ng\u00e0nh\u2014\u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i truy c\u1eadp v\u1ed1n tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 21-48 t\u1ef7 USD c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 so s\u00e1nh v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 425% c\u1ee7a ETF V\u00e0ng trong 3 n\u0103m sau khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00ea duy\u1ec7t v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2004. C\u1ed5ng v\u00e0o t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tinh vi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb xung quanh v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.<\/p><\/div>

Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c<\/th>Th\u1eddi gian \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh<\/th>D\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn<\/th>M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1<\/th>C\u01a1 h\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Truy c\u1eadp ban \u0111\u1ea7u (Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i)<\/td>3-6 th\u00e1ng<\/td>15-25 t\u1ef7 USD<\/td>+43% \u0111\u1ebfn +87%<\/td>K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1ed1i \u0111a tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00fa s\u1ed1c cung<\/td><\/tr>
Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 n\u00e2ng cao<\/td>7-14 th\u00e1ng<\/td>30-50 t\u1ef7 USD<\/td>+68% \u0111\u1ebfn +124%<\/td>C\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c trong c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec9nh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td><\/tr>
T\u00edch h\u1ee3p ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng<\/td>15-36 th\u00e1ng<\/td>75-150 t\u1ef7 USD<\/td>+105% \u0111\u1ebfn +230%<\/td>N\u1eafm gi\u1eef d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u1edbi ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td><\/tr>
Tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh & \u1ed4n \u0111\u1ecbnh<\/td>37+ th\u00e1ng<\/td>200-400 t\u1ef7 USD<\/td>L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n<\/td>Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c xoay v\u00f2ng v\u1edbi k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

C\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u01b0u t\u00fa tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng theo d\u00f5i d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n chuy\u00ean bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t h\u00f3a. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c\u2014\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai Bitcoin CME v\u00e0 c\u00e1c s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch giao ngay\u2014\u0111\u00e3 duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch 0,5-1,7% nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 14 th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2023. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng t\u00edch l\u0169y t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c l\u1edbn trong Q2 2019 v\u00e0 Q4 2020, c\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ec1u d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 160% trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 9 th\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/p><\/div>

  • Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai CME so v\u1edbi giao ngay (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i +1,2%, v\u01b0\u1ee3t ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng 0,8% cho th\u1ea5y nhu c\u1ea7u t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd)<\/li>
  • Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch\/gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 Grayscale\/ETF so v\u1edbi NAV (chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 -5% sang ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch +0,03% b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c 2,8 t\u1ef7 USD+)<\/li>
  • M\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y b\u00e0n OTC (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 mua:b\u00e1n 3:1 trong c\u00e1c b\u00e0n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c x\u1eed l\u00fd c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch 5 tri\u1ec7u USD+)<\/li>
  • Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Premium Coinbase (c\u1ed5ng v\u00e0o t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c cho th\u1ea5y +0,17% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch do b\u00e1n l\u1ebb chi ph\u1ed1i, ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u00edch l\u0169y n\u0103m 2020)<\/li>
  • S\u00f3ng HODL cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ec9 >1 n\u0103m kh\u00f4ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 68,2%, v\u01b0\u1ee3t ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng 65% li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf cung c\u1ea5p trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed)<\/li><\/ul><\/div>

    C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch D\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 truy c\u1eadp v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng n\u00e0y, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecdng th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t b\u1ea3ng \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh di chuy\u1ec3n v\u1ed1n l\u1edbn 5-11 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng. L\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u00f4ng tin n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 do t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.<\/p><\/div>

    Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p: Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a Renaissance Technologies<\/h3><\/div>

    Renaissance Technologies\u2014qu\u1ef9 ph\u00f2ng h\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 110 t\u1ef7 USD c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh 66% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1988\u2014\u0111\u00e3 kh\u1edfi x\u01b0\u1edbng m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c Bitcoin chuy\u00ean bi\u1ec7t v\u00e0o Q1 2021, cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc m\u00e0 v\u1ed1n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb ti\u1ec1n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 qua c\u00e1c h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 SEC c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p tinh vi m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea7n n\u00e0o sao ch\u00e9p.<\/p><\/div>

    Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Bitcoin c\u1ee7a Renaissance, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 qua c\u00e1c ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 13F b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch b\u1edfi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a cryptoquant.com, d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u00f2ng l\u1ec7nh \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh di chuy\u1ec3n v\u1ed1n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c 7-12 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi gi\u00e1 v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t h\u00f3a. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 gi\u1eefa \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb Bitcoin, d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh gi\u00e1 b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 73%.<\/p><\/div>

    Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Renaissance<\/th>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n<\/th>\u0110\u00f3ng g\u00f3p hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t<\/th>Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng b\u00e1n l\u1ebb<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y<\/td>Gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n c\u00e1c m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng d\u00f2ng l\u1ec7nh t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c tr\u00ean 17 s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u 25 tri\u1ec7u USD<\/td>C\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n gi\u00e1 v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh +37% qua 26 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn<\/td>Gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai CME l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n (ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng >0,8%)<\/td><\/tr>
    Thu ho\u1ea1ch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ki\u1ec3u VIX c\u1ee7a Bitcoin<\/td>+22% thu h\u1ed3i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u1ed5 sung trong 7 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>Th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf th\u00f4ng qua \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee1 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed theo ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng (gi\u1ea3m 40% \u1edf m\u1ee9c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n >80%)<\/td><\/tr>
    Xoay v\u00f2ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan<\/td>Chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cu\u1ed9n 30 ng\u00e0y tr\u00ean 43 c\u1eb7p th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1edbi t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u1ea1i m\u1ed7i 15 ph\u00fat<\/td>C\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro +15% qua 9 l\u1ea7n thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan<\/td>Gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t th\u1ee7 c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c tam gi\u00e1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan Bitcoin-SPX-V\u00e0ng (\u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n)<\/td><\/tr>
    L\u1eadp b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 thanh kho\u1ea3n<\/td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u1ed5 l\u1ec7nh \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng hi\u1ec3n th\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed9 s\u00e2u 5 c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 t\u00edch h\u1ee3p b\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i<\/td>C\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n +8% tr\u00ean 1,2 t\u1ef7 USD trong c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn<\/td>Gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u1edf c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ec7nh gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n (5-10% d\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u00edch l\u0169y)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

    C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a Renaissance mang l\u1ea1i hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, n\u1eafm b\u1eaft kho\u1ea3ng 76% m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Bitcoin trong khi ch\u1ec9 tr\u1ea3i qua 42% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 trong chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 2021-2022. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 truy c\u1eadp c\u00e1c thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y, t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 l\u1eadp b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c khung c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1n l\u1ebb tinh vi.<\/p><\/div>

    T\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng: C\u00e1c khung chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c cho tri\u1ec3n khai v\u1ed1n<\/h2><\/div>

    Khi c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a bitcoin thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c\u2014\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn b\u1edfi ba l\u1ea7n \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng 200 ng\u00e0y\u201482% nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb ph\u00e1 h\u1ee7y 31-47% l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng th\u00f4ng qua tri\u1ec3n khai v\u1ed1n do c\u1ea3m x\u00fac \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n, trong khi c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 th\u00e0nh l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc. Kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khai th\u00e1c cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt.<\/p><\/div>

    C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd qu\u1ef9 \u01b0u t\u00fa nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho m\u1ed9t ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01a1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c khung tri\u1ec3n khai v\u1ed1n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tinh vi t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac m\u00e0 c\u1ed9ng d\u1ed3n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 qua c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c.<\/p><\/div>

    Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch 168 n\u1ebfn h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 2016-2017 v\u00e0 2020-2021 ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111i l\u00ean c\u1ee7a Bitcoin y\u00eau c\u1ea7u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc 6-8 l\u1ea7n \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 30-40% (\u00b13,7%), t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 tri\u1ec3n khai v\u1ed1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u00e0 c\u00e1c thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c khai th\u00e1c v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n 89%. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p t\u00edch l\u0169y c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea thay v\u00ec ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ea3m x\u00fac v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng.<\/p><\/div>

    Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/th>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n<\/th>Hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>Y\u00eau c\u1ea7u qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    DCA \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>T\u0103ng s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng mua l\u00ean 75-120% khi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 30 ng\u00e0y gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh 20 ng\u00e0y trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn<\/td>C\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n 27% so v\u1edbi DCA th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng qua 387 \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn<\/td>Th\u1eddi gian t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u 12 th\u00e1ng v\u1edbi t\u1ed1i \u0111a 20% m\u1ed7i \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh<\/td><\/tr>
    Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c thang \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh<\/td>Thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp l\u1ec7nh gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 10%, 20% v\u00e0 30% v\u1edbi c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 v\u1ed1n 20\/30\/50<\/td>Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh trung b\u00ecnh t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n 43% trong 11 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn<\/td>T\u1ed1i \u0111a 30% t\u1ed5ng v\u1ed1n m\u1ed7i thang v\u1edbi th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i 72 gi\u1edd<\/td><\/tr>
    X\u00e1c nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>V\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh sau c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i t\u0103ng 20%+ v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c tr\u00ean kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ed9ng th\u00eam 3% \u0111\u1ec7m<\/td>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng 61% tr\u00ean s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c qua 27 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 l\u1edbn<\/td>D\u1eebng l\u1ed7 c\u1ee9ng t\u1ea1i \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 v\u1edbi k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u1edf 15% v\u1ed1n<\/td><\/tr>
    \u0110\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb t\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u1ea3n t\u00e2m l\u00fd<\/td>Quy m\u00f4 v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh khi Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S\u1ee3 h\u00e3i & Tham lam \u0111\u1ecdc d\u01b0\u1edbi 25 trong 3+ ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn<\/td>T\u1ed1t h\u01a1n 52% so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh th\u1eddi gian th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qua 19 t\u1eadp s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i<\/td>K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u1edf 15% m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau tho\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

    B\u1ed9 T\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e2ng cao c\u1ee7a Pocket Option bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t cho c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e0y. C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi AI c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng tri\u1ec3n khai t\u1ed1i \u01b0u d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 30\/20 ng\u00e0y, trong khi M\u00e1y t\u00ednh \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh T\u00f9y ch\u1ec9nh t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ec7nh gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh theo \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n l\u1ec7 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p><\/div>

    Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p: C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn thu ho\u1ea1ch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/h3><\/div>

    MicroStrategy\u2014c\u00f4ng ty ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m ni\u00eam y\u1ebft c\u00f4ng khai n\u1eafm gi\u1eef 158.200 Bitcoin (6,7 t\u1ef7 USD)\u2014\u0111\u00e3 tri\u1ec3n khai m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c thu ho\u1ea1ch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2020-2023, cho th\u1ea5y ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u00edch l\u0169y c\u1ea5p t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn qua c\u00e1c h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 8-K b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb tinh vi t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh.<\/p><\/div>

    Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch 33 l\u1ea7n mua Bitcoin ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a MicroStrategy \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 qua c\u00e1c h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 8-K b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh t\u00edch l\u0169y 3,8 t\u1ef7 USD c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. C\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u00e3 tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n v\u1ed1n ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n trong c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng mua c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed l\u1edbn h\u01a1n trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a gi\u00e1 v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p><\/div>

    Ng\u00e0y mua c\u1ee7a MicroStrategy<\/th>Gi\u00e1 Bitcoin<\/th>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 30 ng\u00e0y<\/th>Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng mua<\/th>Hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 th\u1eddi gian<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    14 th\u00e1ng 9, 2020<\/td>10.730 USD<\/td>38%<\/td>16.796 BTC (180,3 tri\u1ec7u USD)<\/td>L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ti\u1ebfp theo +847% (gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 1,7 t\u1ef7 USD)<\/td><\/tr>
    21 th\u00e1ng 12, 2020<\/td>22.870 USD<\/td>64%<\/td>29.646 BTC (678,1 tri\u1ec7u USD)<\/td>L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ti\u1ebfp theo +371% (gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 3,2 t\u1ef7 USD)<\/td><\/tr>
    24 th\u00e1ng 2, 2021<\/td>48.410 USD<\/td>89%<\/td>19.452 BTC (942,2 tri\u1ec7u USD)<\/td>L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ti\u1ebfp theo +87% (gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 1,77 t\u1ef7 USD)<\/td><\/tr>
    21 th\u00e1ng 6, 2021<\/td>31.670 USD<\/td>106%<\/td>13.005 BTC (412,4 tri\u1ec7u USD)<\/td>L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i +51% (gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 622,7 tri\u1ec7u USD)<\/td><\/tr>
    29 th\u00e1ng 11, 2021<\/td>57.270 USD<\/td>76%<\/td>7.002 BTC (401,3 tri\u1ec7u USD)<\/td>L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i -15% (gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 341,1 tri\u1ec7u USD)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

    Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u00edch l\u0169y c\u1ee7a MicroStrategy cho th\u1ea5y ba nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u00ednh: 1) Quy m\u00f4 tri\u1ec3n khai v\u1ed1n t\u0103ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 thu\u1eadn v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng\u20148,4 tri\u1ec7u USD m\u1ed7i \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u, t\u0103ng l\u00ean 10,7 tri\u1ec7u USD m\u1ed7i \u0111i\u1ec3m trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u00edch l\u0169y gi\u1eefa chu k\u1ef3; 2) C\u00e1c l\u1ea7n mua l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t tr\u00f9ng kh\u1edbp chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao h\u01a1n 1,5-2,4 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng 90 ng\u00e0y; 3) K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed duy tr\u00ec m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 Bitcoin so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng 200 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a n\u00f3, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u1ea7n mua l\u1edbn h\u01a1n 2,4 l\u1ea7n khi giao d\u1ecbch trong v\u00f2ng 10% c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng n\u00e0y. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn chi ph\u00ed mua trung b\u00ecnh 29.407 USD\u2014th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh 38.950 USD trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u00edch l\u0169y c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/p><\/div>

    C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i: Ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u cho s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c<\/h2><\/div>

    C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao BTC t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c plugin Bloomberg Terminal chuy\u00ean bi\u1ec7t tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 25.000 USD m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 theo d\u00f5i b\u1ea3y ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i quan tr\u1ecdng m\u00e0 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ho\u1eb7c c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c 11-17 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn gi\u00e1\u2014m\u1ed9t l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u00f4ng tin tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 28-43% trong l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c theo ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Pantera Capital. K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n th\u00f4ng qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p><\/div>

    C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i l\u1ea5y s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf tr\u00ean blockchain thay v\u00ec d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00e0nh vi m\u1ea1ng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tinh vi x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh di chuy\u1ec3n v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, thay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c cung c\u1ea5p m\u00e0 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong v\u00e0i ng\u00e0y ho\u1eb7c v\u00e0i tu\u1ea7n.<\/p><\/div>

    • T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ec9 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u0103ng k\u00fd t\u0103ng +27% YoY (v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng quan tr\u1ecdng 25% v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 3 th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2023), kh\u1edbp ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1edbi qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng quan s\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2020 v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2019<\/li>
    • Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i tu\u1ed5i UTXO ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 28% t\u1ed5ng cung \u0111\u00e3 di chuy\u1ec3n trong 3 th\u00e1ng qua\u2014ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c l\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ea1i ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u00edch l\u0169y t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c Q4 2020<\/li>
    • Thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ecb tr\u00ed c\u1ee7a th\u1ee3 m\u1ecf cho th\u1ea5y t\u00edch l\u0169y r\u00f2ng trong 87 ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp v\u1edbi 24.371 BTC \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00eam v\u00e0o d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef, chu\u1ed7i t\u00edch l\u0169y d\u00e0i nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 2-th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2019<\/li>
    • S\u1ed1 d\u01b0 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m -11% k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 10 n\u0103m 2023, lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf 118.400 BTC kh\u1ecfi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c b\u00e1n ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m cung l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t trong 100 ng\u00e0y k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 9 n\u0103m 2020<\/li>
    • T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ecdc 1,17, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec9nh chu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc (2,5+ v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2017 v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2021) v\u00e0 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 gi\u1ed1ng h\u1ec7t v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecdc th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2019 (1,19) \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 234%<\/li><\/ul><\/div>

      C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb blockchain n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 cung c\u1ea5p l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf giao d\u1ecbch quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh trong t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 b\u1ea3y tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p khi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n t\u1ea1o ra t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u sai trong n\u0103m 2023, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng th\u00e1ng 4-th\u00e1ng 6, n\u01a1i t\u00edch l\u0169y tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 68% ti\u1ebfp theo trong khi 78% h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt ph\u00e1t ra c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i. S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u00e0y gi\u1eefa th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khai th\u00e1c cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch th\u00f4ng th\u00e1i.<\/p><\/div>

      Ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i<\/th>T\u00edn hi\u1ec7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1<\/th>\u0110\u1ecdc hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/th>So s\u00e1nh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\u0110\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
      SOPR (T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u1ea7u ra \u0111\u00e3 chi ti\u00eau)<\/td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb li\u00ean t\u1ee5c >1,0 trong 14+ ng\u00e0y sau khi v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua t\u1eeb d\u01b0\u1edbi l\u00ean v\u1edbi 3+ tu\u1ea7n xanh li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp<\/td>1,06 (tr\u00ean ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng trong 27 ng\u00e0y)<\/td>Gi\u1ed1ng h\u1ec7t v\u1edbi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ng\u00e0y 12 th\u00e1ng 1-8 th\u00e1ng 2 n\u0103m 2020 tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 47%<\/td>83% ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng qua 14 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/td><\/tr>
      MVRV Z-Score<\/td>V\u01b0\u1ee3t qua 0 t\u1eeb l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 \u00e2m v\u1edbi 3 l\u1ea7n t\u0103ng li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n<\/td>1,2 (d\u01b0\u01a1ng k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 10 th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2023)<\/td>G\u1ea7n gi\u1ed1ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecdc th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2019 (1,23) \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng 318 ng\u00e0y<\/td>91% ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb chu k\u1ef3 v\u1edbi th\u1eddi gian d\u1eabn trung b\u00ecnh 123 ng\u00e0y<\/td><\/tr>
      R\u1ee7i ro d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef<\/td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ea5p (<0,008) \u0111i ra t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e1y nhi\u1ec1u th\u00e1ng v\u1edbi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i h\u00ecnh ch\u1eef W<\/td>0,0014 (83% d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ecdc t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc)<\/td>\u0110\u1ecdc th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t so v\u1edbi v\u1ecb tr\u00ed chu k\u1ef3 trong to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a Bitcoin<\/td>87% ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i qua 5 chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh<\/td><\/tr>
      S\u00f3ng HODL v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n<\/td>D\u1ea3i nh\u00f3m ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (1-3 th\u00e1ng) m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng >20% trong khi c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (1+ n\u0103m) duy tr\u00ec >60% \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh<\/td>Nh\u00f3m 1-3 th\u00e1ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng +23%, nh\u00f3m 1+ n\u0103m \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh \u1edf m\u1ee9c 68,2%<\/td>Kh\u1edbp ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o v\u1edbi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2020 (t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 22%, \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh 67,9%)<\/td>76% ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho th\u1eddi gian t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c gi\u00e1 v\u1edbi th\u1eddi gian d\u1eabn trung b\u00ecnh 14-23 ng\u00e0y<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

      B\u1ed9 Th\u00f4ng tin Tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 tr\u00ean Chu\u1ed7i \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Pocket Option t\u00edch h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i API v\u1edbi Glassnode, Chainalysis v\u00e0 CryptoQuant, cung c\u1ea5p cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch ph\u00e2n t\u00edch blockchain c\u1ea5p t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u0103ng k\u00fd d\u1eef li\u1ec7u h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng 25.000 USD+. C\u00e1i nh\u00ecn to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe m\u1ea1ng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp.<\/p><\/div>

      X\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng danh m\u1ee5c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c \u0111i l\u00ean<\/h2><\/div>

      Khi c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a bitcoin thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng\u2014\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c minh b\u1edfi 15+ ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng 50 ng\u00e0y v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 MACD d\u01b0\u01a1ng\u2014c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p nh\u01b0 Two Sigma v\u00e0 Renaissance th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c khung x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng danh m\u1ee5c 17 \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u00e0 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Sharpe g\u1ea5p 2,4 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u00f3 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac n\u00e0y bi\u1ebfn ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1eeb ngh\u1ec7 thu\u1eadt th\u00e0nh khoa h\u1ecdc.<\/p><\/div>

      C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng\u2014\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n b\u1edfi \u0111\u1ed9i ng\u0169 C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a BlackRock v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn trong s\u00e1ch tr\u1eafng t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u0103m 2022 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd\u2014li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh danh m\u1ee5c d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 Bitcoin t\u1eeb 2,7-13,8% d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cu\u1ed9n 30 ng\u00e0y v\u1edbi S&P 500 (ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng quan tr\u1ecdng: 0,35), Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0110\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 (ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng: -0,20) v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 10 n\u0103m (ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng: 0,40). C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn th\u00edch \u1ee9ng n\u00e0y v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u0129nh trong t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p><\/div>

      Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c danh m\u1ee5c<\/th>C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n<\/th>\u0110i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ed1i \u01b0u<\/th>Hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>T\u00edch h\u1ee3p qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
      Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan<\/td>\u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m Bitcoin d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cu\u1ed9n 30 ng\u00e0y v\u1edbi S&P 500 v\u1edbi t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n (c\u01a1 s\u1edf 5%, +3% \u1edf \u22640,2, +5% \u1edf \u22640, -2% \u1edf \u22650,5)<\/td>C\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan th\u1ea5p ho\u1eb7c \u00e2m (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 0,17, v\u1ecb tr\u00ed l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng)<\/td>C\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n 32% so v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u0129nh qua 28 qu\u00fd d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ki\u1ec3m tra l\u1ea1i<\/td>Gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng 40% trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cao (>0,65 trong 10+ ng\u00e0y)<\/td><\/tr>
      \u0110\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb theo tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 Bitcoin t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ngh\u1ecbch v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n 20 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 (ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u00d7 [40% \u00f7 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i])<\/td>Gi\u1ea3m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp<\/td>C\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro 24% v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1i \u0111a th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 37%<\/td>Gi\u1ea3m v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 43-57% trong c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/td><\/tr>
      Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n t\u1ea7ng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c<\/td>Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ba t\u1ea7ng (33% t\u1ea1i giao c\u1eaft 50DMA, 33% t\u1ea1i ki\u1ec3m tra l\u1ea1i MA 20 tu\u1ea7n th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, 33% t\u1ea1i ATH m\u1edbi)<\/td>Chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng s\u1edbm \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa v\u1edbi c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n t\u0103ng gi\u00e1<\/td>N\u1eafm b\u1eaft 41% m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 27% ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac gi\u1ea3m so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n<\/td>K\u00edch ho\u1ea1t gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1ea1i m\u1ed7i t\u1ea7ng (10% d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o v\u1edbi quy m\u00f4)<\/td><\/tr>
      C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/td>Duy tr\u00ec d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t 25-40% \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh -30% v\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t tr\u01b0\u1edbc<\/td>T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t h\u1eefu \u00edch trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>C\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n gi\u00e1 v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh trung b\u00ecnh 17% qua 8 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3<\/td>Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng tri\u1ec3n khai v\u1ed1n lu\u00f4n s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng cho c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i thi\u00ean nga \u0111en<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

      C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd danh m\u1ee5c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng tr\u1ecdng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u c\u1ee7a Bitcoin ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng thay v\u00ec duy tr\u00ec t\u0129nh. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd tinh vi \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m danh m\u1ee5c trong su\u1ed1t c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng thay v\u00ec duy tr\u00ec c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f4ng t\u1ed1i \u01b0u khi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n thay \u0111\u1ed5i.<\/p><\/div>

      Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch l\u1ecbch s\u1eed x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan c\u1ee7a Bitcoin v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng tu\u00e2n theo c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n trong su\u1ed1t c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Khi t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cu\u1ed9n 30 ng\u00e0y v\u1edbi S&P 500 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 0,2\u2014nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 7 th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2023\u2014Bitcoin l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i trung b\u00ecnh 47% trong 60 ng\u00e0y ti\u1ebfp theo so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cao (>0,7). M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t khung th\u1eddi gian ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 76% qua 14 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p><\/div>

      Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p: Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n<\/h3><\/div>

      Pantera Capital\u2014qu\u1ef9 ph\u00f2ng h\u1ed9 ti\u1ec1n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 5,8 t\u1ef7 USD \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00e0nh l\u1eadp v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2013\u2014\u0111\u00e3 tri\u1ec3n khai m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch tinh vi cho qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd danh m\u1ee5c Bitcoin \u0111\u1ed9ng. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn qua c\u00e1c th\u01b0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u00e0ng qu\u00fd t\u1eeb 2020-2022, cho th\u1ea5y \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c khung ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u1ea5p t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c trong c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a bitcoin.<\/p><\/div>

      C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng danh m\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a Pantera k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c \u0111a y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng 22 ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t tr\u00ean b\u1ed1n danh m\u1ee5c, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 Bitcoin \u0111\u1ed9ng x\u1ea3y ra h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec3m s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u0129nh trong chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 2020-2021.<\/p><\/div>

      Danh m\u1ee5c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a Pantera<\/th>Ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3<\/th>T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5<\/th>T\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u00e1n l\u1ebb<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
      X\u00e1c nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c<\/td>M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 SMA 200 ng\u00e0y (kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch v\u00e0 h\u01b0\u1edbng), t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u MACD tr\u00ean 3 khung th\u1eddi gian, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng RSI h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3<\/td>X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u01a1 s\u1edf (30-60% v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1ed1i \u0111a)<\/td>\u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 v\u1edbi SMA 200 ng\u00e0y v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 \u00b110%<\/td><\/tr>
      X\u00e1c nh\u1eadn tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i<\/td>Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng SOPR (7\/30\/90 ng\u00e0y), MVRV Z-Score, C\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng D\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y S\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch (d\u00f2ng r\u00f2ng 3\/7\/14 ng\u00e0y), T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0110\u1ecba ch\u1ec9 Ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 (\u00b115% t\u1eeb x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u01a1 s\u1edf)<\/td>Gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a Glassnode v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng<\/td><\/tr>
      Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/td>T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 tr\u00ean 5 s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch, \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u1edf<\/td>T\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n cho th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u00e0o\/ra<\/td>Th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf th\u00f4ng qua gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n (Coinglass)<\/td><\/tr>
      \u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u0129 m\u00f4<\/td>T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cu\u1ed9n 30 ng\u00e0y v\u1edbi SPX, DXY, V\u00e0ng v\u00e0 Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 10 n\u0103m, v\u1edbi nh\u1eadn di\u1ec7n thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9<\/td>L\u1edbp ph\u1ee7 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro (gi\u1ea3m ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng -30% trong c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan)<\/td>Ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan TradingView v\u1edbi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

      C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a Pantera mang l\u1ea1i hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong su\u1ed1t chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 2020-2021 ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro cao h\u01a1n kho\u1ea3ng 67% (t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Sharpe 1,87 so v\u1edbi 1,12) so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb Bitcoin t\u0129nh, trong khi gi\u1ea3m m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1i \u0111a 42% trong \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2021. Vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd trong \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan th\u00e1ng 4-th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2021 (khi t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan Bitcoin-SPX v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 0,65) \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ea3o to\u00e0n v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 m\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e1i tri\u1ec3n khai \u1edf c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t th\u00e1ng 7-th\u00e1ng 8.<\/p><\/div>

      K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c tho\u00e1t: \u0110\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c<\/h2><\/div>

      Khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao BTC t\u0103ng gi\u00e1, 91% nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u00e1m \u1ea3nh b\u1ec7nh l\u00fd v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh\u2014nh\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn b\u1edfi nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u h\u00e0nh vi b\u00e1n l\u1ebb n\u0103m 2023 c\u1ee7a TD Ameritrad","body_html_source":{"label":"Body HTML","type":"wysiwyg","formatted_value":"

      \n

      Gi\u1ea3i m\u00e3 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c chu k\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a Bitcoin<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
      \n

      C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi l\u1eb7p \u0111i l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i “t\u1ea1i sao BTC t\u0103ng gi\u00e1” c\u00f3 c\u00e1c d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c\u2014\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn qua 3.784 ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2013\u2014ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh tuy\u00ean truy\u1ec1n. C\u00e1c khung chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

      \n

      Trong khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch b\u00e1n l\u1ebb t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt tr\u1ec5 (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands), c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p nh\u01b0 Jump Trading v\u00e0 Alameda Research ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c khung \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c b\u1eadc b\u1ed1n, x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 2-3 tu\u1ea7n m\u00e0 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00e3 mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro cao h\u01a1n 67-94% qua ba chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd bi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

      \n

      Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 s\u1ef1 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n \u0111\u00e1ng kinh ng\u1ea1c trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a Bitcoin. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, khi RSI h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 65 sau khi n\u1ed5i l\u00ean t\u1eeb c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c d\u01b0\u1edbi 40 trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t, Bitcoin \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng th\u00eam 47-83 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi tr\u1ea3i qua s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 (>15%) v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 78% qua c\u1ea3 ba chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00ednh (2013-14, 2016-17, 2020-21). L\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u00e1c khung \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

      \n
      \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
      Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c<\/th>\n\u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u1eadn d\u1ea1ng<\/th>\nTh\u1eddi gian trung b\u00ecnh<\/th>\nL\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\nChi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u<\/th>\nT\u00edn hi\u1ec7u v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh ch\u00ednh<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
      T\u00edch l\u0169y s\u1edbm<\/td>\nGi\u1ea3m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, gi\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, gi\u00e1 \u0111i ngang<\/td>\n143 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n+27%<\/td>\nDCA c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng v\u1edbi 25% v\u1ed1n<\/td>\nRSI h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua 55 sau khi gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 35<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      X\u00e1c nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1<\/td>\nM\u1edf r\u1ed9ng kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 ch\u00ednh<\/td>\n32 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n+61%<\/td>\nTri\u1ec3n khai v\u1ed1n t\u00edch c\u1ef1c (50% c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i)<\/td>\nKh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 trung b\u00ecnh 30 ng\u00e0y 2,5 l\u1ea7n v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean 200MA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      T\u0103ng t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c<\/td>\nT\u0103ng s\u1ef1 ch\u00fa \u00fd c\u1ee7a truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ec9 m\u1edbi, b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u FOMO<\/td>\n76 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n+118%<\/td>\nB\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ch\u1ed1t l\u1eddi chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c (25% v\u1ecb tr\u00ed)<\/td>\nBa l\u1ea7n \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp tr\u00ean kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Th\u1ed5i ph\u1ed3ng h\u01b0ng ph\u1ea5n<\/td>\nH\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 parabol, t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u1ef1c \u0111oan, ng\u1eaft k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1<\/td>\n17 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n+94%<\/td>\nGi\u1ea3m v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ch\u00ednh (50-75% ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i)<\/td>\n\u0110\u1ec9nh kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1edbi 3+ n\u1ebfn parabol li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
      \n

      Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ng\u00e0y 23 th\u00e1ng 10 n\u0103m 2023 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u00edch l\u0169y s\u1edbm v\u00e0 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1, khi 7 ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u0103n ch\u1ec9nh. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y kh\u1edbp ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chu\u1ed7i ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n chu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2020, th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2019 v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 7 n\u0103m 2016\u2014m\u1ed7i chu k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ec1u t\u0103ng 94-247% trong 4-6 th\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfp theo. Khung chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c quan tr\u1ecdng cho vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng v\u1ecb tr\u00ed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

      \n

      \u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
      \n

      Khi xem x\u00e9t t\u1ea1i sao BTC t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 trong Q1 2024, d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c\u2014\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c minh qua c\u00e1c h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 SEC Form 13F cho th\u1ea5y 13,7 t\u1ef7 USD trong c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed Bitcoin m\u1edbi\u2014\u0111\u00e3 thay th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea1o, thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c chu k\u1ef3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 87% do b\u00e1n l\u1ebb \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n n\u0103m 2017 v\u00e0 64% do b\u00e1n l\u1ebb \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n n\u0103m 2021. S\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac n\u00e0y \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c khung ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

      \n

      Vi\u1ec7c SEC ph\u00ea duy\u1ec7t 11 ETF Bitcoin giao ngay v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 10 th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2024\u2014sau cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn ph\u00e1p l\u00fd k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 10 n\u0103m tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 250 tri\u1ec7u USD c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c g\u00e3 kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 ng\u00e0nh\u2014\u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i truy c\u1eadp v\u1ed1n tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 21-48 t\u1ef7 USD c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 so s\u00e1nh v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 425% c\u1ee7a ETF V\u00e0ng trong 3 n\u0103m sau khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00ea duy\u1ec7t v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2004. C\u1ed5ng v\u00e0o t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tinh vi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb xung quanh v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

      \n
      \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
      Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c<\/th>\nTh\u1eddi gian \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh<\/th>\nD\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn<\/th>\nM\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1<\/th>\nC\u01a1 h\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
      Truy c\u1eadp ban \u0111\u1ea7u (Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i)<\/td>\n3-6 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n15-25 t\u1ef7 USD<\/td>\n+43% \u0111\u1ebfn +87%<\/td>\nK\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1ed1i \u0111a tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00fa s\u1ed1c cung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 n\u00e2ng cao<\/td>\n7-14 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n30-50 t\u1ef7 USD<\/td>\n+68% \u0111\u1ebfn +124%<\/td>\nC\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c trong c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec9nh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      T\u00edch h\u1ee3p ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng<\/td>\n15-36 th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n75-150 t\u1ef7 USD<\/td>\n+105% \u0111\u1ebfn +230%<\/td>\nN\u1eafm gi\u1eef d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u1edbi ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh & \u1ed4n \u0111\u1ecbnh<\/td>\n37+ th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n200-400 t\u1ef7 USD<\/td>\nL\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n<\/td>\nChi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c xoay v\u00f2ng v\u1edbi k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
      \n

      C\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u01b0u t\u00fa tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng theo d\u00f5i d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n chuy\u00ean bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t h\u00f3a. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c\u2014\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai Bitcoin CME v\u00e0 c\u00e1c s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch giao ngay\u2014\u0111\u00e3 duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch 0,5-1,7% nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 14 th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2023. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng t\u00edch l\u0169y t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c l\u1edbn trong Q2 2019 v\u00e0 Q4 2020, c\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ec1u d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 160% trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 9 th\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

      \n
        \n
      • Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai CME so v\u1edbi giao ngay (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i +1,2%, v\u01b0\u1ee3t ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng 0,8% cho th\u1ea5y nhu c\u1ea7u t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd)<\/li>\n
      • Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch\/gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 Grayscale\/ETF so v\u1edbi NAV (chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 -5% sang ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch +0,03% b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c 2,8 t\u1ef7 USD+)<\/li>\n
      • M\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y b\u00e0n OTC (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 mua:b\u00e1n 3:1 trong c\u00e1c b\u00e0n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c x\u1eed l\u00fd c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch 5 tri\u1ec7u USD+)<\/li>\n
      • Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Premium Coinbase (c\u1ed5ng v\u00e0o t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c cho th\u1ea5y +0,17% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch do b\u00e1n l\u1ebb chi ph\u1ed1i, ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u00edch l\u0169y n\u0103m 2020)<\/li>\n
      • S\u00f3ng HODL cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ec9 >1 n\u0103m kh\u00f4ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 68,2%, v\u01b0\u1ee3t ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng 65% li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf cung c\u1ea5p trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
        \n

        C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch D\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 truy c\u1eadp v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng n\u00e0y, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecdng th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t b\u1ea3ng \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh di chuy\u1ec3n v\u1ed1n l\u1edbn 5-11 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng. L\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u00f4ng tin n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 do t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p: Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a Renaissance Technologies<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
        \n

        Renaissance Technologies\u2014qu\u1ef9 ph\u00f2ng h\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 110 t\u1ef7 USD c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh 66% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1988\u2014\u0111\u00e3 kh\u1edfi x\u01b0\u1edbng m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c Bitcoin chuy\u00ean bi\u1ec7t v\u00e0o Q1 2021, cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc m\u00e0 v\u1ed1n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb ti\u1ec1n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 qua c\u00e1c h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 SEC c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p tinh vi m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea7n n\u00e0o sao ch\u00e9p.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Bitcoin c\u1ee7a Renaissance, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 qua c\u00e1c ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 13F b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch b\u1edfi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a cryptoquant.com, d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch d\u00f2ng l\u1ec7nh \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh di chuy\u1ec3n v\u1ed1n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c 7-12 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi gi\u00e1 v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t h\u00f3a. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 gi\u1eefa \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb Bitcoin, d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh gi\u00e1 b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 73%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n
        \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
        Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Renaissance<\/th>\nPh\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n<\/th>\n\u0110\u00f3ng g\u00f3p hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t<\/th>\nKh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng b\u00e1n l\u1ebb<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
        Th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y<\/td>\nGi\u00e1m s\u00e1t thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n c\u00e1c m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng d\u00f2ng l\u1ec7nh t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c tr\u00ean 17 s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u 25 tri\u1ec7u USD<\/td>\nC\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n gi\u00e1 v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh +37% qua 26 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn<\/td>\nGi\u00e1m s\u00e1t ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai CME l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n (ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng >0,8%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        Thu ho\u1ea1ch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>\nChi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ki\u1ec3u VIX c\u1ee7a Bitcoin<\/td>\n+22% thu h\u1ed3i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u1ed5 sung trong 7 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>\nTh\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf th\u00f4ng qua \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee1 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed theo ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng (gi\u1ea3m 40% \u1edf m\u1ee9c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n >80%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        Xoay v\u00f2ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan<\/td>\nChuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cu\u1ed9n 30 ng\u00e0y tr\u00ean 43 c\u1eb7p th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1edbi t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u1ea1i m\u1ed7i 15 ph\u00fat<\/td>\nC\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro +15% qua 9 l\u1ea7n thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan<\/td>\nGi\u00e1m s\u00e1t th\u1ee7 c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c tam gi\u00e1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan Bitcoin-SPX-V\u00e0ng (\u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        L\u1eadp b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 thanh kho\u1ea3n<\/td>\nPh\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u1ed5 l\u1ec7nh \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng hi\u1ec3n th\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed9 s\u00e2u 5 c\u1ea5p v\u00e0 t\u00edch h\u1ee3p b\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i<\/td>\nC\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n +8% tr\u00ean 1,2 t\u1ef7 USD trong c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn<\/td>\nGi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u1edf c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ec7nh gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n (5-10% d\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u00edch l\u0169y)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
        \n

        C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a Renaissance mang l\u1ea1i hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, n\u1eafm b\u1eaft kho\u1ea3ng 76% m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Bitcoin trong khi ch\u1ec9 tr\u1ea3i qua 42% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 trong chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 2021-2022. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 truy c\u1eadp c\u00e1c thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y, t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 l\u1eadp b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c khung c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1n l\u1ebb tinh vi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        T\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng: C\u00e1c khung chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c cho tri\u1ec3n khai v\u1ed1n<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
        \n

        Khi c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a bitcoin thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c\u2014\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn b\u1edfi ba l\u1ea7n \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng 200 ng\u00e0y\u201482% nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb ph\u00e1 h\u1ee7y 31-47% l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng th\u00f4ng qua tri\u1ec3n khai v\u1ed1n do c\u1ea3m x\u00fac \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n, trong khi c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 th\u00e0nh l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc. Kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khai th\u00e1c cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd qu\u1ef9 \u01b0u t\u00fa nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho m\u1ed9t ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01a1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c khung tri\u1ec3n khai v\u1ed1n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tinh vi t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac m\u00e0 c\u1ed9ng d\u1ed3n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 qua c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch 168 n\u1ebfn h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 2016-2017 v\u00e0 2020-2021 ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111i l\u00ean c\u1ee7a Bitcoin y\u00eau c\u1ea7u to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc 6-8 l\u1ea7n \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 30-40% (\u00b13,7%), t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 tri\u1ec3n khai v\u1ed1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u00e0 c\u00e1c thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c khai th\u00e1c v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n 89%. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p t\u00edch l\u0169y c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea thay v\u00ec ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ea3m x\u00fac v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n
        \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
        Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/th>\nPh\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n<\/th>\nHi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\nY\u00eau c\u1ea7u qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
        DCA \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>\nT\u0103ng s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng mua l\u00ean 75-120% khi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 30 ng\u00e0y gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh 20 ng\u00e0y trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn<\/td>\nC\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n 27% so v\u1edbi DCA th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng qua 387 \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn<\/td>\nTh\u1eddi gian t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u 12 th\u00e1ng v\u1edbi t\u1ed1i \u0111a 20% m\u1ed7i \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c thang \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh<\/td>\nThi\u1ebft l\u1eadp l\u1ec7nh gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 10%, 20% v\u00e0 30% v\u1edbi c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 v\u1ed1n 20\/30\/50<\/td>\nGi\u00e1 v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh trung b\u00ecnh t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n 43% trong 11 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn<\/td>\nT\u1ed1i \u0111a 30% t\u1ed5ng v\u1ed1n m\u1ed7i thang v\u1edbi th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i 72 gi\u1edd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        X\u00e1c nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>\nV\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh sau c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i t\u0103ng 20%+ v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c tr\u00ean kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ed9ng th\u00eam 3% \u0111\u1ec7m<\/td>\nT\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng 61% tr\u00ean s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c qua 27 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 l\u1edbn<\/td>\nD\u1eebng l\u1ed7 c\u1ee9ng t\u1ea1i \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 v\u1edbi k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u1edf 15% v\u1ed1n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        \u0110\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb t\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u1ea3n t\u00e2m l\u00fd<\/td>\nQuy m\u00f4 v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh khi Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S\u1ee3 h\u00e3i & Tham lam \u0111\u1ecdc d\u01b0\u1edbi 25 trong 3+ ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn<\/td>\nT\u1ed1t h\u01a1n 52% so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh th\u1eddi gian th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qua 19 t\u1eadp s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i<\/td>\nK\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u1edf 15% m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau tho\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
        \n

        B\u1ed9 T\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e2ng cao c\u1ee7a Pocket Option bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t cho c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e0y. C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi AI c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng tri\u1ec3n khai t\u1ed1i \u01b0u d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 30\/20 ng\u00e0y, trong khi M\u00e1y t\u00ednh \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh T\u00f9y ch\u1ec9nh t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ec7nh gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh theo \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n l\u1ec7 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p: C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn thu ho\u1ea1ch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
        \n

        MicroStrategy\u2014c\u00f4ng ty ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m ni\u00eam y\u1ebft c\u00f4ng khai n\u1eafm gi\u1eef 158.200 Bitcoin (6,7 t\u1ef7 USD)\u2014\u0111\u00e3 tri\u1ec3n khai m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c thu ho\u1ea1ch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2020-2023, cho th\u1ea5y ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u00edch l\u0169y c\u1ea5p t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn qua c\u00e1c h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 8-K b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb tinh vi t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch 33 l\u1ea7n mua Bitcoin ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a MicroStrategy \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 qua c\u00e1c h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 8-K b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh t\u00edch l\u0169y 3,8 t\u1ef7 USD c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. C\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u00e3 tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n v\u1ed1n ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n trong c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng mua c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed l\u1edbn h\u01a1n trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a gi\u00e1 v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n
        \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
        Ng\u00e0y mua c\u1ee7a MicroStrategy<\/th>\nGi\u00e1 Bitcoin<\/th>\nBi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 30 ng\u00e0y<\/th>\nKh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng mua<\/th>\nHi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 th\u1eddi gian<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
        14 th\u00e1ng 9, 2020<\/td>\n10.730 USD<\/td>\n38%<\/td>\n16.796 BTC (180,3 tri\u1ec7u USD)<\/td>\nL\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ti\u1ebfp theo +847% (gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 1,7 t\u1ef7 USD)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        21 th\u00e1ng 12, 2020<\/td>\n22.870 USD<\/td>\n64%<\/td>\n29.646 BTC (678,1 tri\u1ec7u USD)<\/td>\nL\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ti\u1ebfp theo +371% (gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 3,2 t\u1ef7 USD)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        24 th\u00e1ng 2, 2021<\/td>\n48.410 USD<\/td>\n89%<\/td>\n19.452 BTC (942,2 tri\u1ec7u USD)<\/td>\nL\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ti\u1ebfp theo +87% (gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 1,77 t\u1ef7 USD)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        21 th\u00e1ng 6, 2021<\/td>\n31.670 USD<\/td>\n106%<\/td>\n13.005 BTC (412,4 tri\u1ec7u USD)<\/td>\nL\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i +51% (gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 622,7 tri\u1ec7u USD)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        29 th\u00e1ng 11, 2021<\/td>\n57.270 USD<\/td>\n76%<\/td>\n7.002 BTC (401,3 tri\u1ec7u USD)<\/td>\nL\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i -15% (gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 341,1 tri\u1ec7u USD)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
        \n

        Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u00edch l\u0169y c\u1ee7a MicroStrategy cho th\u1ea5y ba nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u00ednh: 1) Quy m\u00f4 tri\u1ec3n khai v\u1ed1n t\u0103ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 thu\u1eadn v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng\u20148,4 tri\u1ec7u USD m\u1ed7i \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u, t\u0103ng l\u00ean 10,7 tri\u1ec7u USD m\u1ed7i \u0111i\u1ec3m trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u00edch l\u0169y gi\u1eefa chu k\u1ef3; 2) C\u00e1c l\u1ea7n mua l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t tr\u00f9ng kh\u1edbp chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao h\u01a1n 1,5-2,4 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng 90 ng\u00e0y; 3) K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed duy tr\u00ec m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 Bitcoin so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng 200 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a n\u00f3, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u1ea7n mua l\u1edbn h\u01a1n 2,4 l\u1ea7n khi giao d\u1ecbch trong v\u00f2ng 10% c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng n\u00e0y. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn chi ph\u00ed mua trung b\u00ecnh 29.407 USD\u2014th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh 38.950 USD trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u00edch l\u0169y c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i: Ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u cho s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
        \n

        C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao BTC t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c plugin Bloomberg Terminal chuy\u00ean bi\u1ec7t tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 25.000 USD m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 theo d\u00f5i b\u1ea3y ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i quan tr\u1ecdng m\u00e0 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ho\u1eb7c c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c 11-17 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn gi\u00e1\u2014m\u1ed9t l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u00f4ng tin tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 28-43% trong l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c theo ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Pantera Capital. K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n th\u00f4ng qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i l\u1ea5y s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf tr\u00ean blockchain thay v\u00ec d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh h\u00e0nh vi m\u1ea1ng, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tinh vi x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh di chuy\u1ec3n v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, thay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c cung c\u1ea5p m\u00e0 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong v\u00e0i ng\u00e0y ho\u1eb7c v\u00e0i tu\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n
          \n
        • T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ec9 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u0103ng k\u00fd t\u0103ng +27% YoY (v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng quan tr\u1ecdng 25% v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 3 th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2023), kh\u1edbp ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1edbi qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng quan s\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2020 v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2019<\/li>\n
        • Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i tu\u1ed5i UTXO ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 28% t\u1ed5ng cung \u0111\u00e3 di chuy\u1ec3n trong 3 th\u00e1ng qua\u2014ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c l\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ea1i ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u00edch l\u0169y t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c Q4 2020<\/li>\n
        • Thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ecb tr\u00ed c\u1ee7a th\u1ee3 m\u1ecf cho th\u1ea5y t\u00edch l\u0169y r\u00f2ng trong 87 ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp v\u1edbi 24.371 BTC \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00eam v\u00e0o d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef, chu\u1ed7i t\u00edch l\u0169y d\u00e0i nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 2-th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2019<\/li>\n
        • S\u1ed1 d\u01b0 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m -11% k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 10 n\u0103m 2023, lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf 118.400 BTC kh\u1ecfi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c b\u00e1n ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m cung l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t trong 100 ng\u00e0y k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 9 n\u0103m 2020<\/li>\n
        • T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ecdc 1,17, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec9nh chu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc (2,5+ v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2017 v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2021) v\u00e0 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 gi\u1ed1ng h\u1ec7t v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecdc th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2019 (1,19) \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 234%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
          \n

          C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb blockchain n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 cung c\u1ea5p l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf giao d\u1ecbch quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh trong t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 b\u1ea3y tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p khi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n t\u1ea1o ra t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u sai trong n\u0103m 2023, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng th\u00e1ng 4-th\u00e1ng 6, n\u01a1i t\u00edch l\u0169y tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 68% ti\u1ebfp theo trong khi 78% h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt ph\u00e1t ra c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i. S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u00e0y gi\u1eefa th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khai th\u00e1c cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch th\u00f4ng th\u00e1i.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n
          \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
          Ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i<\/th>\nT\u00edn hi\u1ec7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1<\/th>\n\u0110\u1ecdc hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/th>\nSo s\u00e1nh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\n\u0110\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
          SOPR (T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u1ea7u ra \u0111\u00e3 chi ti\u00eau)<\/td>\nGi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb li\u00ean t\u1ee5c >1,0 trong 14+ ng\u00e0y sau khi v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua t\u1eeb d\u01b0\u1edbi l\u00ean v\u1edbi 3+ tu\u1ea7n xanh li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp<\/td>\n1,06 (tr\u00ean ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng trong 27 ng\u00e0y)<\/td>\nGi\u1ed1ng h\u1ec7t v\u1edbi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ng\u00e0y 12 th\u00e1ng 1-8 th\u00e1ng 2 n\u0103m 2020 tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 47%<\/td>\n83% ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng qua 14 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          MVRV Z-Score<\/td>\nV\u01b0\u1ee3t qua 0 t\u1eeb l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 \u00e2m v\u1edbi 3 l\u1ea7n t\u0103ng li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n<\/td>\n1,2 (d\u01b0\u01a1ng k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 10 th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2023)<\/td>\nG\u1ea7n gi\u1ed1ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecdc th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2019 (1,23) \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng 318 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n91% ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb chu k\u1ef3 v\u1edbi th\u1eddi gian d\u1eabn trung b\u00ecnh 123 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          R\u1ee7i ro d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef<\/td>\nGi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ea5p (<0,008) \u0111i ra t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e1y nhi\u1ec1u th\u00e1ng v\u1edbi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i h\u00ecnh ch\u1eef W<\/td>\n0,0014 (83% d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ecdc t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc)<\/td>\n\u0110\u1ecdc th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t so v\u1edbi v\u1ecb tr\u00ed chu k\u1ef3 trong to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a Bitcoin<\/td>\n87% ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i qua 5 chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          S\u00f3ng HODL v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n<\/td>\nD\u1ea3i nh\u00f3m ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (1-3 th\u00e1ng) m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng >20% trong khi c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n (1+ n\u0103m) duy tr\u00ec >60% \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh<\/td>\nNh\u00f3m 1-3 th\u00e1ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng +23%, nh\u00f3m 1+ n\u0103m \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh \u1edf m\u1ee9c 68,2%<\/td>\nKh\u1edbp ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o v\u1edbi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2020 (t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 22%, \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh 67,9%)<\/td>\n76% ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho th\u1eddi gian t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c gi\u00e1 v\u1edbi th\u1eddi gian d\u1eabn trung b\u00ecnh 14-23 ng\u00e0y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
          \n

          B\u1ed9 Th\u00f4ng tin Tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 tr\u00ean Chu\u1ed7i \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Pocket Option t\u00edch h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng n\u00e0y th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i API v\u1edbi Glassnode, Chainalysis v\u00e0 CryptoQuant, cung c\u1ea5p cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch ph\u00e2n t\u00edch blockchain c\u1ea5p t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u0103ng k\u00fd d\u1eef li\u1ec7u h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng 25.000 USD+. C\u00e1i nh\u00ecn to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe m\u1ea1ng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n

          X\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng danh m\u1ee5c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c \u0111i l\u00ean<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
          \n

          Khi c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a bitcoin thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng\u2014\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c minh b\u1edfi 15+ ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng 50 ng\u00e0y v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 MACD d\u01b0\u01a1ng\u2014c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p nh\u01b0 Two Sigma v\u00e0 Renaissance th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c khung x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng danh m\u1ee5c 17 \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u00e0 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Sharpe g\u1ea5p 2,4 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u00f3 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac n\u00e0y bi\u1ebfn ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1eeb ngh\u1ec7 thu\u1eadt th\u00e0nh khoa h\u1ecdc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n

          C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng\u2014\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n b\u1edfi \u0111\u1ed9i ng\u0169 C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a BlackRock v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn trong s\u00e1ch tr\u1eafng t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u0103m 2022 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd\u2014li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh danh m\u1ee5c d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 Bitcoin t\u1eeb 2,7-13,8% d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cu\u1ed9n 30 ng\u00e0y v\u1edbi S&P 500 (ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng quan tr\u1ecdng: 0,35), Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0110\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 (ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng: -0,20) v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 10 n\u0103m (ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng: 0,40). C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn th\u00edch \u1ee9ng n\u00e0y v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u0129nh trong t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n
          \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
          Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c danh m\u1ee5c<\/th>\nC\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n<\/th>\n\u0110i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ed1i \u01b0u<\/th>\nHi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/th>\nT\u00edch h\u1ee3p qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
          Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan<\/td>\n\u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m Bitcoin d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cu\u1ed9n 30 ng\u00e0y v\u1edbi S&P 500 v\u1edbi t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n (c\u01a1 s\u1edf 5%, +3% \u1edf \u22640,2, +5% \u1edf \u22640, -2% \u1edf \u22650,5)<\/td>\nC\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan th\u1ea5p ho\u1eb7c \u00e2m (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 0,17, v\u1ecb tr\u00ed l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng)<\/td>\nC\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n 32% so v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u0129nh qua 28 qu\u00fd d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ki\u1ec3m tra l\u1ea1i<\/td>\nGi\u1ea3m t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng 40% trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cao (>0,65 trong 10+ ng\u00e0y)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          \u0110\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb theo tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>\nK\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 Bitcoin t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ngh\u1ecbch v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n 20 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 (ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u00d7 [40% \u00f7 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i])<\/td>\nGi\u1ea3m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp<\/td>\nC\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro 24% v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1i \u0111a th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 37%<\/td>\nGi\u1ea3m v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean 43-57% trong c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n t\u1ea7ng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c<\/td>\nPh\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ba t\u1ea7ng (33% t\u1ea1i giao c\u1eaft 50DMA, 33% t\u1ea1i ki\u1ec3m tra l\u1ea1i MA 20 tu\u1ea7n th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, 33% t\u1ea1i ATH m\u1edbi)<\/td>\nChuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng s\u1edbm \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa v\u1edbi c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n t\u0103ng gi\u00e1<\/td>\nN\u1eafm b\u1eaft 41% m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 27% ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac gi\u1ea3m so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n<\/td>\nK\u00edch ho\u1ea1t gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1ea1i m\u1ed7i t\u1ea7ng (10% d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0o v\u1edbi quy m\u00f4)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/td>\nDuy tr\u00ec d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t 25-40% \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh -30% v\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t tr\u01b0\u1edbc<\/td>\nT\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t h\u1eefu \u00edch trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>\nC\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n gi\u00e1 v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh trung b\u00ecnh 17% qua 8 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3<\/td>\nKh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng tri\u1ec3n khai v\u1ed1n lu\u00f4n s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng cho c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i thi\u00ean nga \u0111en<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
          \n

          C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd danh m\u1ee5c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng tr\u1ecdng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u c\u1ee7a Bitcoin ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng thay v\u00ec duy tr\u00ec t\u0129nh. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd tinh vi \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m danh m\u1ee5c trong su\u1ed1t c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng thay v\u00ec duy tr\u00ec c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f4ng t\u1ed1i \u01b0u khi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n thay \u0111\u1ed5i.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n

          Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch l\u1ecbch s\u1eed x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan c\u1ee7a Bitcoin v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng tu\u00e2n theo c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n trong su\u1ed1t c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Khi t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cu\u1ed9n 30 ng\u00e0y v\u1edbi S&P 500 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 0,2\u2014nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 7 th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2023\u2014Bitcoin l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i trung b\u00ecnh 47% trong 60 ng\u00e0y ti\u1ebfp theo so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cao (>0,7). M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t khung th\u1eddi gian ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 76% qua 14 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n

          Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p: Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
          \n

          Pantera Capital\u2014qu\u1ef9 ph\u00f2ng h\u1ed9 ti\u1ec1n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 5,8 t\u1ef7 USD \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00e0nh l\u1eadp v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2013\u2014\u0111\u00e3 tri\u1ec3n khai m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n cung c\u1ea5p m\u1ed9t k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch tinh vi cho qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd danh m\u1ee5c Bitcoin \u0111\u1ed9ng. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn qua c\u00e1c th\u01b0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u00e0ng qu\u00fd t\u1eeb 2020-2022, cho th\u1ea5y \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c khung ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u1ea5p t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c trong c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a bitcoin.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n

          C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng danh m\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a Pantera k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c \u0111a y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng 22 ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t tr\u00ean b\u1ed1n danh m\u1ee5c, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 Bitcoin \u0111\u1ed9ng x\u1ea3y ra h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec3m s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u0129nh trong chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 2020-2021.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n
          \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
          Danh m\u1ee5c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a Pantera<\/th>\nCh\u1ec9 b\u00e1o c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3<\/th>\nT\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5<\/th>\nT\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u00e1n l\u1ebb<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
          X\u00e1c nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c<\/td>\nM\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 SMA 200 ng\u00e0y (kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch v\u00e0 h\u01b0\u1edbng), t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u MACD tr\u00ean 3 khung th\u1eddi gian, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng RSI h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3<\/td>\nX\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u01a1 s\u1edf (30-60% v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1ed1i \u0111a)<\/td>\n\u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 v\u1edbi SMA 200 ng\u00e0y v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 \u00b110%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          X\u00e1c nh\u1eadn tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i<\/td>\nXu h\u01b0\u1edbng SOPR (7\/30\/90 ng\u00e0y), MVRV Z-Score, C\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng D\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y S\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch (d\u00f2ng r\u00f2ng 3\/7\/14 ng\u00e0y), T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0110\u1ecba ch\u1ec9 Ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/td>\nY\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 (\u00b115% t\u1eeb x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u01a1 s\u1edf)<\/td>\nGi\u00e1m s\u00e1t c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a Glassnode v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/td>\nT\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 tr\u00ean 5 s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch, \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u1edf<\/td>\nT\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n cho th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u00e0o\/ra<\/td>\nTh\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf th\u00f4ng qua gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n (Coinglass)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          \u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u0129 m\u00f4<\/td>\nT\u01b0\u01a1ng quan cu\u1ed9n 30 ng\u00e0y v\u1edbi SPX, DXY, V\u00e0ng v\u00e0 Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 10 n\u0103m, v\u1edbi nh\u1eadn di\u1ec7n thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9<\/td>\nL\u1edbp ph\u1ee7 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro (gi\u1ea3m ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng -30% trong c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan)<\/td>\nCh\u1ec9 b\u00e1o t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan TradingView v\u1edbi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
          \n

          C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a Pantera mang l\u1ea1i hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong su\u1ed1t chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 2020-2021 ho\u00e0n ch\u1ec9nh. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro cao h\u01a1n kho\u1ea3ng 67% (t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Sharpe 1,87 so v\u1edbi 1,12) so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb Bitcoin t\u0129nh, trong khi gi\u1ea3m m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1i \u0111a 42% trong \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2021. Vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd trong \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan th\u00e1ng 4-th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2021 (khi t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan Bitcoin-SPX v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 0,65) \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ea3o to\u00e0n v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 m\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e1i tri\u1ec3n khai \u1edf c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t th\u00e1ng 7-th\u00e1ng 8.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          \n

          K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c tho\u00e1t: \u0110\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
          \n

          Khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao BTC t\u0103ng gi\u00e1, 91% nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u00e1m \u1ea3nh b\u1ec7nh l\u00fd v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh\u2014nh\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn b\u1edfi nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u h\u00e0nh vi b\u00e1n l\u1ebb n\u0103m 2023 c\u1ee7a TD Ameritrad<\/p>\n"},"faq":[{"question":"L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00f4i x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c li\u1ec7u \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Bitcoin c\u00f3 b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng hay ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00fa b\u1eadt t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi?","answer":"C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u01b0u t\u00fa ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng c\u1ee7a bitcoin v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ba lo\u1ea1i ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c nhau: 1) C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i--\u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 SOPR (T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0110\u1ea7u ra \u0110\u00e3 chi ti\u00eau) duy tr\u00ec gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb li\u00ean t\u1ee5c >1.0 trong 15+ ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp, \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 83% qua 14 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed (\u0111\u1ecdc hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 1.06 trong 27 ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp); 2) C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c--bao g\u1ed3m ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai CME duy tr\u00ec >0.5% trong 3+ tu\u1ea7n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i +1.2%), Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Premium Coinbase duy tr\u00ec d\u01b0\u01a1ng trong 20+ ng\u00e0y (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i +0.17%), v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 d\u01b0 s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch gi\u1ea3m (gi\u1ea3m 118,400 BTC k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng M\u01b0\u1eddi); 3) C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan--c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 khi t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 30 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a Bitcoin v\u1edbi S&P 500 gi\u1ea3m d\u01b0\u1edbi 0.2 (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 0.17) trong khi \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u00e2m v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 USD (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i -0.24). Khi c\u1ea3 ba lo\u1ea1i ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1u hi\u1ec3n th\u1ecb k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi--nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i--d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cho th\u1ea5y 94% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 60-120 ng\u00e0y, m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quan s\u00e1t tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2020 v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2019. \u0110\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SOPR h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n t\u1eeb Glassnode (mi\u1ec5n ph\u00ed), ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai CME t\u1eeb Coinglass, v\u00e0 theo d\u00f5i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 t\u00edch h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a TradingView."},{"question":"T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o Bitcoin bao nhi\u00eau l\u00e0 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng?","answer":"C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c khung ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ed9ng thay v\u00ec t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m t\u0129nh trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a bitcoin. Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u theo to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc tu\u00e2n theo m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan, trong \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m c\u1ee7a Bitcoin t\u0103ng khi t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 30 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng gi\u1ea3m: khi t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan Bitcoin-S&P 500 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 0,7, ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u0111a n\u00ean l\u00e0 3-5% (r\u1ee7i ro chia s\u1ebb cao); khi t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan n\u1eb1m trong kho\u1ea3ng 0,3-0,7, ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean 5-8%; khi t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 0,3 (\u0111\u1ecdc hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 0,17), ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng l\u00ean 8-12%; v\u00e0 trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u00e2m hi\u1ebfm hoi, ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u0111a 12-15% tr\u1edf n\u00ean h\u1ee3p l\u00fd v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc. Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y sau \u0111\u00f3 n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh b\u1edfi hai y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 b\u1ed5 sung: 1) \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng--gi\u1ea3m 25% khi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf 20 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a Bitcoin v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 80%, t\u0103ng 10-15% khi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 40% trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp; 2) \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i--t\u0103ng ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 10-20% khi MVRV Z-Score duy tr\u00ec d\u01b0\u1edbi 2,0 trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 1,2), gi\u1ea3m 20-30% khi v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 5,0. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro l\u00ean 32% so v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u0129nh trong khi gi\u1ea3m m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1i \u0111a 41% trong c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t b\u00e1n th\u00e1o do t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan nh\u01b0 th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2021."},{"question":"C\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m mua th\u00eam trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Bitcoin l\u00e0 g\u00ec?","answer":"Ba chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i trong vi\u1ec7c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a c\u00e1c l\u1ea7n mua th\u00eam trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a bitcoin: 1) Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Trung b\u00ecnh Chi ph\u00ed \u0110\u00f4 la \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng--t\u0103ng s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n mua ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n t\u1eeb 75-120% khi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 30 ng\u00e0y gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 20 ng\u00e0y trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng, m\u1ed9t k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n gi\u00e1 nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh l\u00ean 27% tr\u00ean 387 \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u1eadp \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn trong chu k\u1ef3 2020-2021; 2) Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Thang R\u00fat lui--\u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n theo t\u1eebng c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 10%, 20%, v\u00e0 30% v\u1edbi v\u1ed1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 20\/30\/50 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng qua c\u00e1c c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0y, thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 trung b\u00ecnh 17,3% trong 11 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn trong chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3; 3) Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0110\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb T\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u1ea3n T\u00e2m l\u00fd--m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng v\u1ecb th\u1ebf khi Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S\u1ee3 h\u00e3i & Tham lam Crypto d\u01b0\u1edbi 25 trong 3+ ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn (tr\u00ean MA 200 ng\u00e0y), m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 18% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp theo qua 19 t\u1eadp s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn. \u0110\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ed1i \u01b0u, thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed DCA c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n hai tu\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n, t\u0103ng s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n mua l\u00ean 100% trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ea5p, duy tr\u00ec c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ee9ng t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c r\u00fat lui ch\u00ednh (40% v\u1ed1n giao d\u1ecbch), v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n khai 5-15% v\u1ed1n b\u1ed5 sung trong c\u00e1c l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ecdc t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u1ef1c \u0111oan d\u01b0\u1edbi 20, tr\u00e1nh c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ea3m x\u00fac v\u1edbi c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n."},{"question":"L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng k\u1ebft th\u00fac c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 Bitcoin tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1edbn?","answer":"C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd qu\u1ef9 h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ki\u1ec7t s\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng th\u00f4ng qua s\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a n\u0103m t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 m\u00e0 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1edbn v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 78%: 1) \u0110\u00f2n b\u1ea9y qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c--khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u1edf c\u1ee7a h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 3% v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a Bitcoin k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 tr\u00ean 0.05% trong 3+ ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 1.8% v\u00e0 0.01%); 2) M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh di chuy\u1ec3n cung--khi ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c di chuy\u1ec3n trong 155 ng\u00e0y qua) v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 30% ngu\u1ed3n cung l\u01b0u th\u00f4ng trong khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 28% kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i); 3) Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1--khi MVRV Z-Score v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 7.0 (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 1.2) ho\u1eb7c T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Realized Cap to Thermocap v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 20 (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 12.7); 4) Ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt--khi gi\u00e1 t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec9nh m\u1edbi li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp trong khi RSI, Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 D\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0 d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y trao \u0111\u1ed5i cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh gi\u1ea3m tr\u00ean khung th\u1eddi gian 3 ng\u00e0y; 5) C\u1ef1c \u0111oan t\u00e2m l\u00fd--khi Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S\u1ee3 h\u00e3i & Tham lam Crypto v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 85 trong hai tu\u1ea7n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp trong khi Google Trends cho \"Bitcoin\" ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec9nh chu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc. \u0110\u1ec9nh chu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2021 \u0111\u00e3 hi\u1ec3n th\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u1ea3 n\u0103m t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o kho\u1ea3ng 14-18 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ec9nh cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng. \u0110\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, t\u1ea1o m\u1ed9t danh s\u00e1ch ki\u1ec3m tra \"r\u1ee7i ro th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng\" theo d\u00f5i n\u0103m danh m\u1ee5c n\u00e0y v\u00e0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac khi ba ho\u1eb7c nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o ph\u1ea1m vi $320k-$380k d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i cho s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfn tri\u1ec3n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 on-chain c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 n\u00e0o cung c\u1ea5p t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady nh\u1ea5t trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Bitcoin?","answer":"B\u1ed1n ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i trong c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a bitcoin, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c tr\u1ea3 $25,000+ h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 truy c\u1eadp th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c: 1) SOPR (T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0110\u1ea7u ra \u0110\u00e3 chi ti\u00eau)--\u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng li\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u00e1n Bitcoin c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn hay kh\u00f4ng; c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb li\u00ean t\u1ee5c tr\u00ean 1.0 sau khi v\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00ean t\u1eeb d\u01b0\u1edbi cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u1eeb 1.02-1.1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed l\u00e0 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u cho s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c (ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 1.06 trong 27 ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp); 2) Realized Cap HODL Waves--theo d\u00f5i ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i Bitcoin theo \u0111\u1ed9 tu\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef; khi nh\u00f3m 1-3 th\u00e1ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng 20%+ trong khi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef tr\u00ean 1 n\u0103m v\u1eabn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean 60%, s\u1ef1 t\u00edch l\u0169y tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 (m\u1eabu hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng 23% v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n 68.2%); 3) Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef S\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch--\u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng Bitcoin ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0o\/ra kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch; d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y ra h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n li\u00ean t\u1ee5c v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 0.25% ngu\u1ed3n cung l\u01b0u th\u00f4ng cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 t\u00edch l\u0169y m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng (tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 11 tu\u1ea7n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y ra t\u1ed5ng c\u1ed9ng 118,400 BTC); 4) T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Cung c\u1ea5p Stablecoin--t\u00ednh to\u00e1n s\u1ee9c mua ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng b\u00ean l\u1ec1; c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi 4.0 trong xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng cho th\u1ea5y c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ec3 tri\u1ec3n khai (ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 2.7, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2020). \u0110\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n \u0111\u0103ng k\u00fd d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec5n ph\u00ed c\u1ee7a Glassnode \u0111\u1ec3 theo d\u00f5i h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n SOPR v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi g\u00f3i c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a CryptoQuant \u0111\u1ec3 theo d\u00f5i s\u00f3ng HODL v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 stablecoin, c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1ed7i Ch\u1ee7 nh\u1eadt tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edf c\u1eeda \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n."}],"faq_source":{"label":"FAQ","type":"repeater","formatted_value":[{"question":"L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00f4i x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c li\u1ec7u \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Bitcoin c\u00f3 b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng hay ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00fa b\u1eadt t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi?","answer":"C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u01b0u t\u00fa ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng c\u1ee7a bitcoin v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ba lo\u1ea1i ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c nhau: 1) C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i--\u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 SOPR (T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0110\u1ea7u ra \u0110\u00e3 chi ti\u00eau) duy tr\u00ec gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb li\u00ean t\u1ee5c >1.0 trong 15+ ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp, \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 83% qua 14 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed (\u0111\u1ecdc hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 1.06 trong 27 ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp); 2) C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c--bao g\u1ed3m ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai CME duy tr\u00ec >0.5% trong 3+ tu\u1ea7n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i +1.2%), Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Premium Coinbase duy tr\u00ec d\u01b0\u01a1ng trong 20+ ng\u00e0y (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i +0.17%), v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 d\u01b0 s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch gi\u1ea3m (gi\u1ea3m 118,400 BTC k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng M\u01b0\u1eddi); 3) C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan--c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 khi t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 30 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a Bitcoin v\u1edbi S&P 500 gi\u1ea3m d\u01b0\u1edbi 0.2 (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 0.17) trong khi \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u00e2m v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 USD (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i -0.24). Khi c\u1ea3 ba lo\u1ea1i ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1u hi\u1ec3n th\u1ecb k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi--nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i--d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cho th\u1ea5y 94% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 60-120 ng\u00e0y, m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quan s\u00e1t tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2020 v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2019. \u0110\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 SOPR h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n t\u1eeb Glassnode (mi\u1ec5n ph\u00ed), ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai CME t\u1eeb Coinglass, v\u00e0 theo d\u00f5i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 t\u00edch h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a TradingView."},{"question":"T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o Bitcoin bao nhi\u00eau l\u00e0 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng?","answer":"C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c khung ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ed9ng thay v\u00ec t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m t\u0129nh trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a bitcoin. Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u theo to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc tu\u00e2n theo m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan, trong \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m c\u1ee7a Bitcoin t\u0103ng khi t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 30 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng gi\u1ea3m: khi t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan Bitcoin-S&P 500 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 0,7, ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u0111a n\u00ean l\u00e0 3-5% (r\u1ee7i ro chia s\u1ebb cao); khi t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan n\u1eb1m trong kho\u1ea3ng 0,3-0,7, ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean 5-8%; khi t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 0,3 (\u0111\u1ecdc hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 0,17), ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng l\u00ean 8-12%; v\u00e0 trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u00e2m hi\u1ebfm hoi, ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u1ed1i \u0111a 12-15% tr\u1edf n\u00ean h\u1ee3p l\u00fd v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc. Ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y sau \u0111\u00f3 n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh b\u1edfi hai y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 b\u1ed5 sung: 1) \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng--gi\u1ea3m 25% khi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf 20 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a Bitcoin v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 80%, t\u0103ng 10-15% khi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 40% trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp; 2) \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i--t\u0103ng ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 10-20% khi MVRV Z-Score duy tr\u00ec d\u01b0\u1edbi 2,0 trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 1,2), gi\u1ea3m 20-30% khi v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 5,0. C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro l\u00ean 32% so v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u0129nh trong khi gi\u1ea3m m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1i \u0111a 41% trong c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t b\u00e1n th\u00e1o do t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan nh\u01b0 th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2021."},{"question":"C\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m mua th\u00eam trong c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Bitcoin l\u00e0 g\u00ec?","answer":"Ba chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i trong vi\u1ec7c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a c\u00e1c l\u1ea7n mua th\u00eam trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a bitcoin: 1) Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Trung b\u00ecnh Chi ph\u00ed \u0110\u00f4 la \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng--t\u0103ng s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n mua ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n t\u1eeb 75-120% khi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 30 ng\u00e0y gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 20 ng\u00e0y trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng, m\u1ed9t k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n gi\u00e1 nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh l\u00ean 27% tr\u00ean 387 \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u1eadp \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn trong chu k\u1ef3 2020-2021; 2) Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Thang R\u00fat lui--\u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n theo t\u1eebng c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 10%, 20%, v\u00e0 30% v\u1edbi v\u1ed1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 20\/30\/50 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng qua c\u00e1c c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0y, thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 trung b\u00ecnh 17,3% trong 11 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn trong chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3; 3) Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0110\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb T\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u1ea3n T\u00e2m l\u00fd--m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng v\u1ecb th\u1ebf khi Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S\u1ee3 h\u00e3i & Tham lam Crypto d\u01b0\u1edbi 25 trong 3+ ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn (tr\u00ean MA 200 ng\u00e0y), m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 18% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp theo qua 19 t\u1eadp s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn. \u0110\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ed1i \u01b0u, thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00e1c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed DCA c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n hai tu\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n, t\u0103ng s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n mua l\u00ean 100% trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ea5p, duy tr\u00ec c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ee9ng t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c r\u00fat lui ch\u00ednh (40% v\u1ed1n giao d\u1ecbch), v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n khai 5-15% v\u1ed1n b\u1ed5 sung trong c\u00e1c l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ecdc t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u1ef1c \u0111oan d\u01b0\u1edbi 20, tr\u00e1nh c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ea3m x\u00fac v\u1edbi c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n."},{"question":"L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng k\u1ebft th\u00fac c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 Bitcoin tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1edbn?","answer":"C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd qu\u1ef9 h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ki\u1ec7t s\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng th\u00f4ng qua s\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a n\u0103m t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 m\u00e0 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1edbn v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 78%: 1) \u0110\u00f2n b\u1ea9y qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c--khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u1edf c\u1ee7a h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 3% v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a Bitcoin k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 tr\u00ean 0.05% trong 3+ ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 1.8% v\u00e0 0.01%); 2) M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh di chuy\u1ec3n cung--khi ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n (c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c di chuy\u1ec3n trong 155 ng\u00e0y qua) v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 30% ngu\u1ed3n cung l\u01b0u th\u00f4ng trong khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 28% kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i); 3) Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1--khi MVRV Z-Score v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 7.0 (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 1.2) ho\u1eb7c T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Realized Cap to Thermocap v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 20 (hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 12.7); 4) Ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt--khi gi\u00e1 t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec9nh m\u1edbi li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp trong khi RSI, Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 D\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0 d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y trao \u0111\u1ed5i cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh gi\u1ea3m tr\u00ean khung th\u1eddi gian 3 ng\u00e0y; 5) C\u1ef1c \u0111oan t\u00e2m l\u00fd--khi Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S\u1ee3 h\u00e3i & Tham lam Crypto v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 85 trong hai tu\u1ea7n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp trong khi Google Trends cho \"Bitcoin\" ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec9nh chu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc. \u0110\u1ec9nh chu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2021 \u0111\u00e3 hi\u1ec3n th\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u1ea3 n\u0103m t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o kho\u1ea3ng 14-18 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ec9nh cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng. \u0110\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, t\u1ea1o m\u1ed9t danh s\u00e1ch ki\u1ec3m tra \"r\u1ee7i ro th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng\" theo d\u00f5i n\u0103m danh m\u1ee5c n\u00e0y v\u00e0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp x\u00fac khi ba ho\u1eb7c nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o ph\u1ea1m vi $320k-$380k d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i cho s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfn tri\u1ec3n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 on-chain c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 n\u00e0o cung c\u1ea5p t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady nh\u1ea5t trong c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Bitcoin?","answer":"B\u1ed1n ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i trong c\u00e1c chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a bitcoin, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c tr\u1ea3 $25,000+ h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 truy c\u1eadp th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c: 1) SOPR (T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0110\u1ea7u ra \u0110\u00e3 chi ti\u00eau)--\u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng li\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u00e1n Bitcoin c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn hay kh\u00f4ng; c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb li\u00ean t\u1ee5c tr\u00ean 1.0 sau khi v\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00ean t\u1eeb d\u01b0\u1edbi cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u1eeb 1.02-1.1 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed l\u00e0 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u cho s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c (ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 1.06 trong 27 ng\u00e0y li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp); 2) Realized Cap HODL Waves--theo d\u00f5i ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i Bitcoin theo \u0111\u1ed9 tu\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef; khi nh\u00f3m 1-3 th\u00e1ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng 20%+ trong khi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef tr\u00ean 1 n\u0103m v\u1eabn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean 60%, s\u1ef1 t\u00edch l\u0169y tr\u00ean chu\u1ed7i x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 (m\u1eabu hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng 23% v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n 68.2%); 3) Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef S\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch--\u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng Bitcoin ch\u1ea3y v\u00e0o\/ra kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch; d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y ra h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n li\u00ean t\u1ee5c v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 0.25% ngu\u1ed3n cung l\u01b0u th\u00f4ng cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 t\u00edch l\u0169y m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng (tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 11 tu\u1ea7n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y ra t\u1ed5ng c\u1ed9ng 118,400 BTC); 4) T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 Cung c\u1ea5p Stablecoin--t\u00ednh to\u00e1n s\u1ee9c mua ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng b\u00ean l\u1ec1; c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi 4.0 trong xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng cho th\u1ea5y c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ec3 tri\u1ec3n khai (ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: 2.7, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2020). \u0110\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n \u0111\u0103ng k\u00fd d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec5n ph\u00ed c\u1ee7a Glassnode \u0111\u1ec3 theo d\u00f5i h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n SOPR v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi g\u00f3i c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a CryptoQuant \u0111\u1ec3 theo d\u00f5i s\u00f3ng HODL v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 stablecoin, c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1ed7i Ch\u1ee7 nh\u1eadt tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edf c\u1eeda \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n."}]}},"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin T\u0103ng Gi\u00e1: 5 Khung L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn \u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c C\u00e1c 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