{"id":295176,"date":"2025-07-08T14:44:40","date_gmt":"2025-07-08T14:44:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/news-events\/data\/lly-stock-earnings-date-2\/"},"modified":"2025-07-08T14:44:43","modified_gmt":"2025-07-08T14:44:43","slug":"lly-stock-earnings-date","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/vt\/news-events\/data\/lly-stock-earnings-date\/","title":{"rendered":"Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu Lly: C\u00e1c M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc \u0110\u00e3 \u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c Ch\u1ee9ng Minh Cho Nh\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"root\"><div id=\"wrap-img-root\"><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":50,"featured_media":259994,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[46,28,36,44,2567],"class_list":["post-295176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-data","tag-how","tag-investment","tag-pattern","tag-strategy","tag-trading"],"acf":{"h1":"Pocket Option: Gi\u1ea3i m\u00e3 Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu Lly Th\u00f4ng Qua Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch N\u00e2ng Cao","h1_source":{"label":"H1","type":"text","formatted_value":"Pocket Option: Gi\u1ea3i m\u00e3 Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu Lly Th\u00f4ng Qua Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch N\u00e2ng Cao"},"description":"N\u1eafm v\u1eefng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly v\u1edbi c\u00e1c khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Bi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn th\u00e0nh c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi Pocket Option.","description_source":{"label":"Description","type":"textarea","formatted_value":"N\u1eafm v\u1eefng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly v\u1edbi c\u00e1c khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Bi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn th\u00e0nh c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi Pocket Option."},"intro":"\u0110i\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u1ea3 s\u1ef1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng nh\u01b0 Eli Lilly (LLY). S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec3m tra to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu LLY n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1c khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00f3a kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch trong c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh quan tr\u1ecdng n\u00e0y.","intro_source":{"label":"Intro","type":"text","formatted_value":"\u0110i\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u1ea3 s\u1ef1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi xem x\u00e9t c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng nh\u01b0 Eli Lilly (LLY). S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec3m tra to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu LLY n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1c khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00f3a kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch trong c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh quan tr\u1ecdng n\u00e0y."},"body_html":"<div class=\"custom-html-container\">\n<h2>T\u1ea7m Quan Tr\u1ecdng Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu Lly<\/h2>\nTrong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m, \u00edt s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0o g\u00e2y ra bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nhi\u1ec1u nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn h\u00e0ng qu\u00fd. Ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n quan tr\u1ecdng n\u01a1i gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu th\u01b0\u1eddng dao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u00b16.4% trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian n\u0103m ng\u00e0y\u2014cao h\u01a1n 40% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh. Nh\u1eefng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tuy\u1ec7t v\u1eddi cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trang b\u1ecb c\u00e1c khung \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p.\n\nB\u00e1o c\u00e1o h\u00e0ng qu\u00fd c\u1ee7a Eli Lilly cung c\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 50 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng quan tr\u1ecdng, t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t kho d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng cho ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tinh vi. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 72% gi\u1eefa d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o doanh thu v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu trong ba ng\u00e0y ti\u1ebfp theo\u2014m\u1ed9t m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea b\u1ecb che gi\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 thi\u1ebfu c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p. Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n 68% cho c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trung h\u1ea1n sau khi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.\n\nPocket Option cung c\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 15 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 chuy\u00ean bi\u1ec7t trong ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m, bao g\u1ed3m t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 R&D, c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1o ph\u00ea duy\u1ec7t FDA, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t cho c\u00e1c m\u1eabu l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly. Nh\u1eefng c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ki\u1ec3m tra l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn qua 32 qu\u00fd d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng.\n<h2>C\u00e1c Khung To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc cho Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h2>\nKhi gi\u1ea3i m\u00e3 c\u00e1c m\u1eabu ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p tri\u1ec3n khai m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc tinh vi, m\u1ed7i m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh nh\u1eafm m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a h\u00e0nh vi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong nh\u1eefng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u00f4ng tin cao n\u00e0y.\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Khung To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<th>\u1ee8ng D\u1ee5ng cho L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu Lly<\/th>\n<th>\u00dd Ngh\u0129a Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea<\/th>\n<th>Th\u1ef1c Hi\u1ec7n Th\u1ef1c T\u1ebf<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Chu\u1ed7i Th\u1eddi Gian<\/td>\n<td>X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c m\u1eabu theo m\u00f9a trong c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 0.73 v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai<\/td>\n<td>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ARIMA(2,1,2) v\u1edbi c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1i 8 qu\u00fd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch H\u1ed3i Quy<\/td>\n<td>L\u1eadp b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb R-squared 0.68 cho c\u00e1c qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y<\/td>\n<td>Th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a bi\u1ebfn c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y 3:1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea Bayes<\/td>\n<td>C\u1eadp nh\u1eadt c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn m\u1edbi<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n 85% cho chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u01b0\u1edbng<\/td>\n<td>B\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh, c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i sau c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a LLY<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>M\u00f4 Ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo<\/td>\n<td>D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ph\u1ea1m vi c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c trung b\u00ecnh \u00b14.2% cho d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ph\u1ea1m vi gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>Ch\u1ea1y 10,000 l\u1ea7n l\u1eb7p v\u1edbi gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn lognormal<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n r\u00e3 chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian cho 20 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly h\u00e0ng qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y nh\u1ea5t ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 m\u1ed9t m\u1eabu chu k\u1ef3 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1edbi chu k\u1ef3 4.2 qu\u00fd v\u00e0 bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 7.3%. Quy lu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u00f4ng qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ed5, cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cao h\u01a1n 63% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ng\u00e2y th\u01a1. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch Pocket Option \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u1ef1 h\u1ed3i quy c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u1edf \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 1, 4 v\u00e0 8 qu\u00fd.\n<h3>M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Xung Quanh Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h3>\n\u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd xung quanh c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly tu\u00e2n theo c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n. \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng cong bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1eb7c th\u00f9 c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch \u00e2m r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t l\u00e0 -0.43, so v\u1edbi -0.27 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh r\u1ee7i ro b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o quy \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi c\u00e1c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Ng\u00e0y Tr\u01b0\u1edbc L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/th>\n<th>T\u0103ng IV Trung B\u00ecnh (%)<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u1ed9 L\u1ec7ch Chu\u1ea9n<\/th>\n<th>Gi\u1ea3m IV Sau L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn (%)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>30<\/td>\n<td>5.3%<\/td>\n<td>\u00b11.2%<\/td>\n<td>-2.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>14<\/td>\n<td>12.7%<\/td>\n<td>\u00b12.5%<\/td>\n<td>-8.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7<\/td>\n<td>28.4%<\/td>\n<td>\u00b13.8%<\/td>\n<td>-21.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>42.6%<\/td>\n<td>\u00b16.1%<\/td>\n<td>-37.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\nC\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd xung quanh ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly l\u00e0:\n\nBi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng D\u1ef1 Ki\u1ebfn = Gi\u00e1 C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu Hi\u1ec7n T\u1ea1i \u00d7 Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Ng\u1ee5 \u00dd \u00d7 \u221a(Ng\u00e0y \u0110\u1ebfn H\u1ea1n\/365) \u00d7 1.21\n\nL\u01b0u \u00fd \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m (1.21) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u00fat ra t\u1eeb ph\u00e2n t\u00edch l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u1ec1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a LLY so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd. \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 theo ng\u00e0nh n\u00e0y c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n t\u00ednh to\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn l\u00ean 23% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n, c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft cho \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c trong c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m.\n<h2>C\u00e1c Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec3 D\u1ef1 \u0110o\u00e1n T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h2>\nNgo\u00e0i c\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 EPS v\u00e0 doanh thu ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tinh vi theo d\u00f5i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly t\u00edch h\u1ee3p nhi\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i cho c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng sau th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o.\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 Ch\u00ednh<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng Ph\u00e1p T\u00ednh To\u00e1n<\/th>\n<th>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb D\u1ef1 \u0110o\u00e1n<\/th>\n<th>Ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng cho Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee8ng T\u00edch C\u1ef1c<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u0103ng T\u1ed1c T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 T\u0103ng Tr\u01b0\u1edfng Doanh Thu<\/td>\n<td>(T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 T\u0103ng Tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u00fd Hi\u1ec7n T\u1ea1i) - (T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 T\u0103ng Tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u00fd Tr\u01b0\u1edbc)<\/td>\n<td>T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan m\u1ea1nh v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>&gt;2.5% (83% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>M\u1edf R\u1ed9ng Bi\u00ean L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn G\u1ed9p<\/td>\n<td>(Bi\u00ean L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn G\u1ed9p Hi\u1ec7n T\u1ea1i) - (Bi\u00ean L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn G\u1ed9p N\u0103m Tr\u01b0\u1edbc)<\/td>\n<td>76% d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng nhi\u1ec1u tu\u1ea7n<\/td>\n<td>&gt;1.2 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m (79% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Hi\u1ec7u Qu\u1ea3 R&amp;D<\/td>\n<td>Doanh Thu t\u1eeb S\u1ea3n Ph\u1ea9m M\u1edbi \/ Chi Ph\u00ed R&amp;D<\/td>\n<td>Quan tr\u1ecdng cho c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m<\/td>\n<td>&gt;0.43 (71% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Chuy\u1ec3n \u0110\u1ed5i D\u00f2ng Ti\u1ec1n T\u1ef1 Do<\/td>\n<td>D\u00f2ng Ti\u1ec1n T\u1ef1 Do \/ Thu Nh\u1eadp R\u00f2ng<\/td>\n<td>\u1ea2nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>&gt;1.05x (68% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\nC\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn D\u01b0\u1ee3c Ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Pocket Option \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc m\u00e1y \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00edch h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m s\u1ed1 t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng 81% trong 12 th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn LLY g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y nh\u1ea5t. B\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1ea3y l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1eed n\u00e0y v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n cho c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 quan tr\u1ecdng 48 gi\u1edd sau th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o.\n<ul>\n  <li>Theo d\u00f5i c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng theo qu\u00fd, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c g\u1ecdi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 cao h\u01a1n 26% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/li>\n  <li>Gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 R&D so v\u1edbi doanh thu so v\u1edbi chu\u1ea9n ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m 0.23, v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a LLY l\u00e0 0.19 cho th\u1ea5y hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 cao h\u01a1n 17% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7<\/li>\n  <li>So s\u00e1nh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 32.4% c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m, v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed th\u00eam $4.37 v\u00e0o gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a LLY sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/li>\n  <li>\u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 s\u1ef1 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn thi\u00ean (CV), n\u01a1i CV 0.14 c\u1ee7a LLY x\u1ebfp h\u1ea1ng trong top 15% c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m, b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cao h\u01a1n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Nh\u1eefng B\u1ea5t Th\u01b0\u1eddng Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea trong Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee8ng L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h3>\nC\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m nh\u01b0 Lilly th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t trong ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd m\u00e0 m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn v\u1edbi h\u00e0nh vi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng chung. Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \"gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn\"\u2014n\u01a1i c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u00edch c\u1ef1c d\u01b0\u1edbi 5% k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 trong 63% tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p\u2014\u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 k\u00e9m hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 \u1edf c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu blue chip d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1.\n\nPh\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly hi\u1ec3n th\u1ecb h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 kurtosis l\u00e0 4.7 (so v\u1edbi 3.0 cho ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i chu\u1ea9n), ch\u1ec9 ra x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n 56% c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ef1c \u0111oan so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n. T\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro chuy\u00ean bi\u1ec7t, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y. C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 tr\u1ef1c quan h\u00f3a ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a Pocket Option l\u00e0m n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt nh\u1eefng \u0111u\u00f4i m\u1eadp n\u00e0y, cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3.\n<h2>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Chu\u1ed7i Th\u1eddi Gian c\u1ee7a C\u00e1c Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn L\u1ecbch S\u1eed<\/h2>\nKh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 c\u00e1c m\u1eabu th\u1eddi gian xung quanh c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c quy lu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng. K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2020, LLY \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn\u2014v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh trong c\u00e1c qu\u00fd li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n d\u1ea7n, v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 1.38 l\u1ea7n cho m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua ti\u1ebfp theo.\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Qu\u00fd L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/th>\n<th>Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1<\/th>\n<th>% Thay \u0110\u1ed5i Gi\u00e1 (1 Ng\u00e0y)<\/th>\n<th>% Thay \u0110\u1ed5i Gi\u00e1 (5 Ng\u00e0y)<\/th>\n<th>B\u1ea5t Ng\u1edd L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/th>\n<th>Kh\u1ed1i L\u01b0\u1ee3ng so v\u1edbi Trung B\u00ecnh 30 Ng\u00e0y<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Q1 2023<\/td>\n<td>27 th\u00e1ng 4, 2023<\/td>\n<td>+3.7%<\/td>\n<td>+5.2%<\/td>\n<td>+7.3%<\/td>\n<td>+243%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Q2 2023<\/td>\n<td>8 th\u00e1ng 8, 2023<\/td>\n<td>-2.1%<\/td>\n<td>-0.5%<\/td>\n<td>+2.1%<\/td>\n<td>+187%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Q3 2023<\/td>\n<td>2 th\u00e1ng 11, 2023<\/td>\n<td>+4.9%<\/td>\n<td>+8.3%<\/td>\n<td>+9.6%<\/td>\n<td>+312%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Q4 2023<\/td>\n<td>6 th\u00e1ng 2, 2024<\/td>\n<td>-0.8%<\/td>\n<td>+2.7%<\/td>\n<td>+1.2%<\/td>\n<td>+156%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Q1 2024<\/td>\n<td>30 th\u00e1ng 4, 2024<\/td>\n<td>+6.2%<\/td>\n<td>+7.5%<\/td>\n<td>+12.3%<\/td>\n<td>+278%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\nH\u00e0m t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn n\u00e0y th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea l\u00e0 0.64 \u1edf \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 1 v\u00e0 0.48 \u1edf \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 4, cho th\u1ea5y c\u1ea3 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 t\u00ednh m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m trong vi\u1ec7c x\u1eed l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00f4ng tin l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Pocket Option x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cao h\u01a1n 31% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean.\n\nPh\u00e2n r\u00e3 chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a LLY theo m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc Y(t) = T(t) + S(t) + R(t) ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 r\u1eb1ng th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 S(t) gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch 42% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn\u2014cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 27% c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n. Ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p c\u00f4 l\u1eadp \"hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn thu\u1ea7n t\u00fay\" v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3, mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng.\n<h2>M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh Ph\u00e2n Ph\u1ed1i X\u00e1c Su\u1ea5t cho K\u1ebft Qu\u1ea3 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h2>\nS\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ed1n c\u00f3 xung quanh ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng cho m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c khung Bayes. Thay v\u00ec \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n nh\u1ecb ph\u00e2n, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tri\u1ec3n khai ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1eadp b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 ph\u1ed5 c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang.\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>K\u1ecbch B\u1ea3n<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u1ea1m Vi EPS<\/th>\n<th>X\u00e1c Su\u1ea5t<\/th>\n<th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 D\u1ef1 Ki\u1ebfn<\/th>\n<th>T\u1ea7n Su\u1ea5t L\u1ecbch S\u1eed<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Thi\u1ebfu H\u1ee5t \u0110\u00e1ng K\u1ec3<\/td>\n<td>&lt;5% d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>12%<\/td>\n<td>-7% \u0111\u1ebfn -12%<\/td>\n<td>4 trong 28 qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Thi\u1ebfu H\u1ee5t Nh\u1eb9<\/td>\n<td>0-5% d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>18%<\/td>\n<td>-2% \u0111\u1ebfn -6%<\/td>\n<td>5 trong 28 qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0110\u00fang D\u1ef1 Ki\u1ebfn<\/td>\n<td>\u00b11% c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>25%<\/td>\n<td>-1% \u0111\u1ebfn +2%<\/td>\n<td>7 trong 28 qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>V\u01b0\u1ee3t Qua<\/td>\n<td>1-10% tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>35%<\/td>\n<td>+2% \u0111\u1ebfn +5%<\/td>\n<td>9 trong 28 qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>V\u01b0\u1ee3t Qua M\u1ea1nh<\/td>\n<td>&gt;10% tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>10%<\/td>\n<td>+5% \u0111\u1ebfn +9%<\/td>\n<td>3 trong 28 qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\nC\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u00fat ra to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed9 h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho 28 qu\u00fd b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i t l\u1ec7ch v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 (df=4.2, l\u1ec7ch=0.37). M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 theo ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m n\u00e0y n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch d\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh l\u00e0 0.37, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a ban qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 kho\u1ea3ng 3.8% d\u01b0\u1edbi k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a Pocket Option t\u00edch h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 theo ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.\n<ul>\n  <li>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed9 h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 Parzen v\u1edbi b\u0103ng th\u00f4ng h=0.08 cho c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m m\u1ecbn t\u1ed1i \u01b0u \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i phi tham s\u1ed1<\/li>\n  <li>Tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1eeb 30 ng\u00e0y qua nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ti\u00ean \u0111\u1ec1 Bayes, \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n 2.4x cho c\u00e1c s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i x\u1ea3y ra trong v\u00f2ng 7 ng\u00e0y k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/li>\n  <li>Th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0m tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 m\u0169 w(t) = e^(-0.18t) \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m, n\u01a1i t \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c qu\u00fd t\u1eeb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/li>\n  <li>Hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i theo ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u00ecnh c\u1ea3m ng\u00f4n ng\u1eef c\u1ee7a CEO, \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ec7ch +0.11 cho m\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1eeb kh\u00f3a t\u00edch c\u1ef1c v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 3.2%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch D\u1ef1a Tr\u00ean Quy\u1ec1n Ch\u1ecdn Xung Quanh Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu Lly<\/h2>\nTh\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n tinh vi cho c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly, v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 ph\u00e1i sinh m\u00e3 h\u00f3a ng\u1ea7m k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3i m\u00e3 b\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00edch xu\u1ea5t c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n th\u00f4ng qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng.\n\nC\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn Black-Scholes-Merton, m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh Khu\u1ebfch T\u00e1n Nh\u1ea3y L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn D\u01b0\u1ee3c Ph\u1ea9m l\u00e0 1.36, cho ph\u00e9p \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn xung quanh ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly. S\u1ef1 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00f4ng li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m sau c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o quy \u0111\u1ecbnh ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng l\u1edbn th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 D\u1ef1a Tr\u00ean Quy\u1ec1n Ch\u1ecdn<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng Ph\u00e1p T\u00ednh To\u00e1n<\/th>\n<th>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb Di\u1ec5n Gi\u1ea3i<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u1ecdc Hi\u1ec7n T\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a LLY<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Ng\u1ee5 \u00dd<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 straddle t\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n \u00f7 Gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/td>\n<td>K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>\u00b15.8% (so v\u1edbi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u00b14.7%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Put\/Call<\/td>\n<td>Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn put \u00f7 Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn call<\/td>\n<td>Ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o t\u00e2m l\u00fd cho th\u1ea5y xu h\u01b0\u1edbng h\u01b0\u1edbng<\/td>\n<td>0.78 (h\u01a1i l\u1ea1c quan so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh ng\u00e0nh 0.94)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>C\u1ea5u Tr\u00fac K\u1ef3 H\u1ea1n Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/td>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ebd theo nhi\u1ec1u k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>Chi\u1ec1u th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 d\u1ed1c 36% (d\u1ed1c h\u01a1n 87% c\u00e1c l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ecdc l\u1ecbch s\u1eed)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 L\u1ec7ch \u0110\u1ea3o Nguy C\u01a1<\/td>\n<td>IV c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn call OTM - IV c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn put OTM<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111u\u00f4i cho c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ef1c \u0111oan<\/td>\n<td>-4.6% (nhi\u1ec1u lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 h\u01a1n 73% c\u00e1c quan s\u00e1t)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\nC\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Pocket Option t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 straddle chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a. K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c: Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng D\u1ef1 Ki\u1ebfn = (Gi\u00e1 Call ATM + Gi\u00e1 Put ATM) \u00f7 Gi\u00e1 C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu \u00d7 Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 \u0110i\u1ec1u Ch\u1ec9nh Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng D\u01b0\u1ee3c Ph\u1ea9m (1.21). \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly s\u1eafp t\u1edbi, t\u00ednh to\u00e1n n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 ra m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u00b15.8%, cung c\u1ea5p n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc cho vi\u1ec7c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed.\n<h3>\u0110\u1ed9ng L\u1ef1c B\u1ec1 M\u1eb7t Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 Sau L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h3>\nB\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ba chi\u1ec1u\u2014v\u1ebd b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd tr\u00ean c\u1ea3 gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n (moneyness) v\u00e0 ng\u00e0y h\u1ebft h\u1ea1n\u2014tr\u1ea3i qua c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xung quanh c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly. C\u1ea5u tr\u00fac to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p c\u1ea3 th\u00f4ng tin tr\u1ef1c quan v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3.\n\nTr\u01b0\u1edbc ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly, b\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t \"v\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng\" \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn 16.4% gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n bao quanh ng\u00e0y th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o. S\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y tu\u00e2n theo c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c c\u0103n b\u1eadc hai: Chi\u1ec1u Cao V\u00e1ch \u0110\u00e1 = Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng C\u01a1 S\u1edf \u00d7 \u221a(Ng\u00e0y \u0110\u1ebfn L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn \u00f7 365) \u00d7 Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 Kh\u00f4ng Ch\u1eafc Ch\u1eafn L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn. Sau th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o, v\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e1 n\u00e0y s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 trung b\u00ecnh 72% trong gi\u1edd giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ecbch v\u1edbi l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ed1i \u01b0u \u1edf 0.85 delta.\n<h2>T\u00edch H\u1ee3p Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch C\u01a1 B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 K\u1ef9 Thu\u1eadt cho Giao D\u1ecbch Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h2>\nC\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt trong m\u1ed9t khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc m\u1ea1ch l\u1ea1c. S\u1ef1 t\u00edch h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi xem x\u00e9t s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty v\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c.\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 C\u01a1 B\u1ea3n<\/th>\n<th>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 K\u1ef9 Thu\u1eadt<\/th>\n<th>C\u00e1ch Ti\u1ebfp C\u1eadn T\u00edch H\u1ee3p<\/th>\n<th>M\u1ed1i Quan H\u1ec7 To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 T\u0103ng Tr\u01b0\u1edfng Doanh Thu<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9ng L\u1ef1c Gi\u00e1 (RSI)<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/td>\n<td>r = 0.73 v\u1edbi RSI 14 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Xu H\u01b0\u1edbng Bi\u00ean L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn G\u1ed9p<\/td>\n<td>C\u00e1c M\u1ee9c H\u1ed7 Tr\u1ee3\/Kh\u00e1ng C\u1ef1<\/td>\n<td>Ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng bi\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1eadp b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh<\/td>\n<td>M\u1ed7i thay \u0111\u1ed5i 1% bi\u00ean = 4.2% d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ti\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9 \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed0ng R&amp;D<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch H\u1ed3 S\u01a1 Kh\u1ed1i L\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/td>\n<td>M\u1eabu t\u00edch l\u0169y t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c xung quanh c\u00e1c c\u1ed9t m\u1ed1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng<\/td>\n<td>3.8 l\u1ea7n kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ch\u00ednh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ea1o D\u00f2ng Ti\u1ec1n<\/td>\n<td>H\u1ed9i T\u1ee5 Trung B\u00ecnh \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/td>\n<td>C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng FCF &gt;5% d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00e1c giao c\u1eaft MA 50\/200 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 76%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\nB\u1ea3ng \u0110i\u1ec1u Khi\u1ec3n Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch T\u00edch H\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a Pocket Option cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111i\u1ec3m s\u1ed1 t\u00f9y ch\u1ec9nh m\u00e0 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang trong c\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc m\u00e1y t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng gradient cho t\u1eadp d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111a chi\u1ec1u n\u00e0y v\u1edbi 17 bi\u1ebfn ch\u00ednh, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c m\u1eabu phi tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p m\u00e0 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 73%\u2014m\u1ed9t c\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u01a1n chi\u1ec1u.\n<ul>\n  <li>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n ma tr\u1eadn t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan ch\u00e9o gi\u1eefa 12 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 8 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt tr\u00ean 5 khung th\u1eddi gian kh\u00e1c nhau, ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1ed1i \u01b0u cho m\u1ed7i k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1<\/li>\n  <li>Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0110i\u1ec3m Ch\u1ea5t L\u01b0\u1ee3ng L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u00fat ra t\u1eeb h\u1ed3i quy lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf ng\u01b0\u1ee3c (R\u00b2 = 0.68) k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u00e1o c\u00e1o t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c<\/li>\n  <li>Th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Markov chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u1ea1m vi VIX, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u t\u1ea1i VIX &lt;15 (w\u2081=0.65, w\u2082=0.35), VIX 15-25 (w\u2081=0.42, w\u2082=0.58), v\u00e0 VIX &gt;25 (w\u2081=0.31, w\u2082=0.69)<\/li>\n  <li>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch lu\u00e2n chuy\u1ec3n s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i so s\u00e1nh t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 thay \u0111\u1ed5i 42 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a LLY so v\u1edbi ETF ng\u00e0nh XLV, v\u1edbi t\u00ednh to\u00e1n alpha c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 theo d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m l\u1ecdc nhi\u1ec5u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 cao h\u01a1n 87% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc Qu\u1ea3n L\u00fd R\u1ee7i Ro cho Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h2>\nBi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t xung quanh ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c khung qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro tinh vi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng tr\u00ean c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc. K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed, hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro, v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 v\u1ed1n ph\u1ea3i k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i phi Gaussian c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 trong c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng cao n\u00e0y.\n\nK\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1ed1i \u01b0u cho c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Ti\u00eau Ch\u00ed Kelly Ph\u00e2n \u0110o\u1ea1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 \u0110i\u1ec1u Ch\u1ec9nh L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn D\u01b0\u1ee3c Ph\u1ea9m l\u00e0 0.43, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t cho ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i \u0111u\u00f4i m\u1eadp \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00f3a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u1edbi gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1ed1n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n t\u1ed1i \u01b0u.\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>K\u1ef9 Thu\u1eadt Qu\u1ea3n L\u00fd R\u1ee7i Ro<\/th>\n<th>C\u00f4ng Th\u1ee9c To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<th>\u1ee8ng D\u1ee5ng cho Giao D\u1ecbch L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/th>\n<th>Th\u1ef1c Hi\u1ec7n C\u1ee5 Th\u1ec3 cho LLY<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Ti\u00eau Ch\u00ed Kelly S\u1eeda \u0110\u1ed5i<\/td>\n<td>f* = (p \u00d7 b - q) \u00f7 b \u00d7 0.5 \u00d7 PEAF<\/td>\n<td>K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i \u0111u\u00f4i m\u1eadp<\/td>\n<td>S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng PEAF = 0.43 cho LLY so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh ng\u00e0nh 0.51<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb R\u1ee7i Ro C\u00f3 \u0110i\u1ec1u Ki\u1ec7n (CVaR)<\/td>\n<td>CVaR = E[X | X \u2264 VaR]<\/td>\n<td>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n r\u1ee7i ro \u0111u\u00f4i n\u1eafm b\u1eaft t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn v\u01b0\u1ee3t ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng VaR<\/td>\n<td>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 97.5% s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i t (df=4.2)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Ph\u00f2ng Ng\u1eeba Quy\u1ec1n Ch\u1ecdn \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/td>\n<td>\u0394 = \u2202V\/\u2202S \u00d7 (1 + \u03c3\u2091\/\u03c3\u2098)<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba delta \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cho c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u03c3\u2091\/\u03c3\u2098 = 2.76 cho LLY<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0110a D\u1ea1ng H\u00f3a D\u1ef1a Tr\u00ean T\u01b0\u01a1ng Quan<\/td>\n<td>Danh M\u1ee5c \u03c3\u00b2 = \u03a3 w\u00b2\u03c3\u00b2 + \u03a3\u03a3 w\u1d62w\u2c7c\u03c1\u1d62\u2c7c\u03c3\u1d62\u03c3\u2c7c<\/td>\n<td>\u0110a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c trong m\u00f9a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan -0.23 c\u1ee7a LLY v\u1edbi VIX \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\nC\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng b\u1ed9 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Pocket Option c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c, duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u01a1i nhi\u1ec5m t\u1ed1i \u01b0u ngay c\u1ea3 trong bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan xung quanh c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly. C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng cho ph\u00e9p ki\u1ec3m tra c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi 10,000 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh theo c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a LLY (kurtosis=4.7, l\u1ec7ch=0.37), x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c l\u1ed7 h\u1ed5ng danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3.\n\n[cta_button text=\"B\u1eaft \u0110\u1ea7u Giao D\u1ecbch\"]\n<h2>K\u1ebft Lu\u1eadn: T\u1ed5ng H\u1ee3p Nh\u1eefng Hi\u1ec3u Bi\u1ebft To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc cho Th\u00e0nh C\u00f4ng L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h2>\nPh\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1c m\u1eabu ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho giao \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn v\u00e0 chuy\u00ean m\u00f4n ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea phi tuy\u1ebfn, l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn, ph\u00e2n r\u00e3 chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c khung x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t Bayes, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng cao n\u00e0y.\n\nC\u00e1c c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c m\u1eabu quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ed1n c\u00f3 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m. Thay v\u00ec theo \u0111u\u1ed5i m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tinh vi t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1eadp b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd cho ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p, v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro-\u0111\u1ebfn-l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c.\n\nB\u1ed9 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Pocket Option d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 h\u00f3a quy\u1ec1n truy c\u1eadp v\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ea5p t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch l\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 c\u00e1c c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly v\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 theo ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00eau trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c k\u00e9m hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u1eabn v\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng.\n\nNh\u01b0 v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p n\u00e0o, hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft ch\u00ednh kh\u00f4ng n\u1eb1m \u1edf vi\u1ec7c theo \u0111u\u1ed5i d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o m\u00e0 l\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n th\u00f4ng qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t, tinh ch\u1ec9nh m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh li\u00ean t\u1ee5c, v\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 theo ng\u00e0nh. Trong khi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m s\u1ebd lu\u00f4n ch\u1ee9a \u0111\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, c\u00e1c khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p la b\u00e0n \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t do c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly mang l\u1ea1i.\n\n<\/div>","body_html_source":{"label":"Body HTML","type":"wysiwyg","formatted_value":"<div class=\"custom-html-container\">\n<h2>T\u1ea7m Quan Tr\u1ecdng Chi\u1ebfn L\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu Lly<\/h2>\n<p>Trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m, \u00edt s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0o g\u00e2y ra bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nhi\u1ec1u nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn h\u00e0ng qu\u00fd. Ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n quan tr\u1ecdng n\u01a1i gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu th\u01b0\u1eddng dao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u00b16.4% trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian n\u0103m ng\u00e0y\u2014cao h\u01a1n 40% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh. Nh\u1eefng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tuy\u1ec7t v\u1eddi cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trang b\u1ecb c\u00e1c khung \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00e1o c\u00e1o h\u00e0ng qu\u00fd c\u1ee7a Eli Lilly cung c\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 50 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng quan tr\u1ecdng, t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t kho d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng cho ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tinh vi. C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 72% gi\u1eefa d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o doanh thu v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu trong ba ng\u00e0y ti\u1ebfp theo\u2014m\u1ed9t m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea b\u1ecb che gi\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 thi\u1ebfu c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p. Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n 68% cho c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trung h\u1ea1n sau khi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.<\/p>\n<p>Pocket Option cung c\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 15 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 chuy\u00ean bi\u1ec7t trong ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m, bao g\u1ed3m t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 R&#038;D, c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1o ph\u00ea duy\u1ec7t FDA, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t cho c\u00e1c m\u1eabu l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly. Nh\u1eefng c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ki\u1ec3m tra l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn qua 32 qu\u00fd d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n<h2>C\u00e1c Khung To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc cho Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h2>\n<p>Khi gi\u1ea3i m\u00e3 c\u00e1c m\u1eabu ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p tri\u1ec3n khai m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc tinh vi, m\u1ed7i m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh nh\u1eafm m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a h\u00e0nh vi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong nh\u1eefng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u00f4ng tin cao n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Khung To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<th>\u1ee8ng D\u1ee5ng cho L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu Lly<\/th>\n<th>\u00dd Ngh\u0129a Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea<\/th>\n<th>Th\u1ef1c Hi\u1ec7n Th\u1ef1c T\u1ebf<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Chu\u1ed7i Th\u1eddi Gian<\/td>\n<td>X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c m\u1eabu theo m\u00f9a trong c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>H\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 0.73 v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai<\/td>\n<td>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ARIMA(2,1,2) v\u1edbi c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1i 8 qu\u00fd<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch H\u1ed3i Quy<\/td>\n<td>L\u1eadp b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb R-squared 0.68 cho c\u00e1c qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y<\/td>\n<td>Th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n h\u1ed3i quy \u0111a bi\u1ebfn c\u00f3 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y 3:1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea Bayes<\/td>\n<td>C\u1eadp nh\u1eadt c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn m\u1edbi<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n 85% cho chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u01b0\u1edbng<\/td>\n<td>B\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh, c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i sau c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a LLY<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>M\u00f4 Ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo<\/td>\n<td>D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ph\u1ea1m vi c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c trung b\u00ecnh \u00b14.2% cho d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ph\u1ea1m vi gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<td>Ch\u1ea1y 10,000 l\u1ea7n l\u1eb7p v\u1edbi gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn lognormal<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n r\u00e3 chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian cho 20 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly h\u00e0ng qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y nh\u1ea5t ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 m\u1ed9t m\u1eabu chu k\u1ef3 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1edbi chu k\u1ef3 4.2 qu\u00fd v\u00e0 bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 7.3%. Quy lu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u00f4ng qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ed5, cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cao h\u01a1n 63% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ng\u00e2y th\u01a1. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch Pocket Option \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u1ef1 h\u1ed3i quy c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan \u1edf \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 1, 4 v\u00e0 8 qu\u00fd.<\/p>\n<h3>M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Xung Quanh Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h3>\n<p>\u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd xung quanh c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly tu\u00e2n theo c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n. \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng cong bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1eb7c th\u00f9 c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch \u00e2m r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t l\u00e0 -0.43, so v\u1edbi -0.27 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh r\u1ee7i ro b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o quy \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi c\u00e1c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.<\/p>\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Ng\u00e0y Tr\u01b0\u1edbc L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/th>\n<th>T\u0103ng IV Trung B\u00ecnh (%)<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u1ed9 L\u1ec7ch Chu\u1ea9n<\/th>\n<th>Gi\u1ea3m IV Sau L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn (%)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>30<\/td>\n<td>5.3%<\/td>\n<td>\u00b11.2%<\/td>\n<td>-2.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>14<\/td>\n<td>12.7%<\/td>\n<td>\u00b12.5%<\/td>\n<td>-8.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7<\/td>\n<td>28.4%<\/td>\n<td>\u00b13.8%<\/td>\n<td>-21.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>42.6%<\/td>\n<td>\u00b16.1%<\/td>\n<td>-37.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd xung quanh ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly l\u00e0:<\/p>\n<p>Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng D\u1ef1 Ki\u1ebfn = Gi\u00e1 C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu Hi\u1ec7n T\u1ea1i \u00d7 Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Ng\u1ee5 \u00dd \u00d7 \u221a(Ng\u00e0y \u0110\u1ebfn H\u1ea1n\/365) \u00d7 1.21<\/p>\n<p>L\u01b0u \u00fd \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m (1.21) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u00fat ra t\u1eeb ph\u00e2n t\u00edch l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u1ec1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a LLY so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd. \u0110i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 theo ng\u00e0nh n\u00e0y c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n t\u00ednh to\u00e1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn l\u00ean 23% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n, c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft cho \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c trong c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m.<\/p>\n<h2>C\u00e1c Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 \u0110\u1ecbnh L\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec3 D\u1ef1 \u0110o\u00e1n T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h2>\n<p>Ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 EPS v\u00e0 doanh thu ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tinh vi theo d\u00f5i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly t\u00edch h\u1ee3p nhi\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i cho c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng sau th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o.<\/p>\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 Ch\u00ednh<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng Ph\u00e1p T\u00ednh To\u00e1n<\/th>\n<th>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb D\u1ef1 \u0110o\u00e1n<\/th>\n<th>Ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng cho Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee8ng T\u00edch C\u1ef1c<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u0103ng T\u1ed1c T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 T\u0103ng Tr\u01b0\u1edfng Doanh Thu<\/td>\n<td>(T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 T\u0103ng Tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u00fd Hi\u1ec7n T\u1ea1i) &#8211; (T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 T\u0103ng Tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u00fd Tr\u01b0\u1edbc)<\/td>\n<td>T\u01b0\u01a1ng quan m\u1ea1nh v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>&gt;2.5% (83% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>M\u1edf R\u1ed9ng Bi\u00ean L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn G\u1ed9p<\/td>\n<td>(Bi\u00ean L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn G\u1ed9p Hi\u1ec7n T\u1ea1i) &#8211; (Bi\u00ean L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn G\u1ed9p N\u0103m Tr\u01b0\u1edbc)<\/td>\n<td>76% d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng nhi\u1ec1u tu\u1ea7n<\/td>\n<td>&gt;1.2 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m (79% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Hi\u1ec7u Qu\u1ea3 R&amp;D<\/td>\n<td>Doanh Thu t\u1eeb S\u1ea3n Ph\u1ea9m M\u1edbi \/ Chi Ph\u00ed R&amp;D<\/td>\n<td>Quan tr\u1ecdng cho c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m<\/td>\n<td>&gt;0.43 (71% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Chuy\u1ec3n \u0110\u1ed5i D\u00f2ng Ti\u1ec1n T\u1ef1 Do<\/td>\n<td>D\u00f2ng Ti\u1ec1n T\u1ef1 Do \/ Thu Nh\u1eadp R\u00f2ng<\/td>\n<td>\u1ea2nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>&gt;1.05x (68% \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn D\u01b0\u1ee3c Ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Pocket Option \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc m\u00e1y \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00edch h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m s\u1ed1 t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng 81% trong 12 th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn LLY g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y nh\u1ea5t. B\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1ea3y l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1eed n\u00e0y v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n cho c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 quan tr\u1ecdng 48 gi\u1edd sau th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Theo d\u00f5i c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng theo qu\u00fd, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c g\u1ecdi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 cao h\u01a1n 26% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/li>\n<li>Gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 R&#038;D so v\u1edbi doanh thu so v\u1edbi chu\u1ea9n ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m 0.23, v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a LLY l\u00e0 0.19 cho th\u1ea5y hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 cao h\u01a1n 17% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7<\/li>\n<li>So s\u00e1nh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 32.4% c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m, v\u1edbi m\u1ed7i \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed th\u00eam $4.37 v\u00e0o gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a LLY sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/li>\n<li>\u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 s\u1ef1 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn thi\u00ean (CV), n\u01a1i CV 0.14 c\u1ee7a LLY x\u1ebfp h\u1ea1ng trong top 15% c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m, b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cao h\u01a1n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Nh\u1eefng B\u1ea5t Th\u01b0\u1eddng Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea trong Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee8ng L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h3>\n<p>C\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m nh\u01b0 Lilly th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t trong ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd m\u00e0 m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn v\u1edbi h\u00e0nh vi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng chung. Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng &#8220;gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn&#8221;\u2014n\u01a1i c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u00edch c\u1ef1c d\u01b0\u1edbi 5% k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 trong 63% tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p\u2014\u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 k\u00e9m hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 \u1edf c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu blue chip d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n<p>Ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly hi\u1ec3n th\u1ecb h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 kurtosis l\u00e0 4.7 (so v\u1edbi 3.0 cho ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i chu\u1ea9n), ch\u1ec9 ra x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n 56% c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ef1c \u0111oan so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n. T\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro chuy\u00ean bi\u1ec7t, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y. C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 tr\u1ef1c quan h\u00f3a ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a Pocket Option l\u00e0m n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt nh\u1eefng \u0111u\u00f4i m\u1eadp n\u00e0y, cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3.<\/p>\n<h2>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch Chu\u1ed7i Th\u1eddi Gian c\u1ee7a C\u00e1c Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn L\u1ecbch S\u1eed<\/h2>\n<p>Kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 c\u00e1c m\u1eabu th\u1eddi gian xung quanh c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c quy lu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng. K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2020, LLY \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn\u2014v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh trong c\u00e1c qu\u00fd li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n d\u1ea7n, v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 1.38 l\u1ea7n cho m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/p>\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Qu\u00fd L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/th>\n<th>Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1<\/th>\n<th>% Thay \u0110\u1ed5i Gi\u00e1 (1 Ng\u00e0y)<\/th>\n<th>% Thay \u0110\u1ed5i Gi\u00e1 (5 Ng\u00e0y)<\/th>\n<th>B\u1ea5t Ng\u1edd L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/th>\n<th>Kh\u1ed1i L\u01b0\u1ee3ng so v\u1edbi Trung B\u00ecnh 30 Ng\u00e0y<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Q1 2023<\/td>\n<td>27 th\u00e1ng 4, 2023<\/td>\n<td>+3.7%<\/td>\n<td>+5.2%<\/td>\n<td>+7.3%<\/td>\n<td>+243%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Q2 2023<\/td>\n<td>8 th\u00e1ng 8, 2023<\/td>\n<td>-2.1%<\/td>\n<td>-0.5%<\/td>\n<td>+2.1%<\/td>\n<td>+187%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Q3 2023<\/td>\n<td>2 th\u00e1ng 11, 2023<\/td>\n<td>+4.9%<\/td>\n<td>+8.3%<\/td>\n<td>+9.6%<\/td>\n<td>+312%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Q4 2023<\/td>\n<td>6 th\u00e1ng 2, 2024<\/td>\n<td>-0.8%<\/td>\n<td>+2.7%<\/td>\n<td>+1.2%<\/td>\n<td>+156%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Q1 2024<\/td>\n<td>30 th\u00e1ng 4, 2024<\/td>\n<td>+6.2%<\/td>\n<td>+7.5%<\/td>\n<td>+12.3%<\/td>\n<td>+278%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>H\u00e0m t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn n\u00e0y th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea l\u00e0 0.64 \u1edf \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 1 v\u00e0 0.48 \u1edf \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 4, cho th\u1ea5y c\u1ea3 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 t\u00ednh m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m trong vi\u1ec7c x\u1eed l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00f4ng tin l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 t\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Pocket Option x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cao h\u01a1n 31% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean.<\/p>\n<p>Ph\u00e2n r\u00e3 chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a LLY theo m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc Y(t) = T(t) + S(t) + R(t) ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 r\u1eb1ng th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 S(t) gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch 42% bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn\u2014cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 27% c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n. Ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p c\u00f4 l\u1eadp &#8220;hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn thu\u1ea7n t\u00fay&#8221; v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3, mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng.<\/p>\n<h2>M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh Ph\u00e2n Ph\u1ed1i X\u00e1c Su\u1ea5t cho K\u1ebft Qu\u1ea3 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h2>\n<p>S\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ed1n c\u00f3 xung quanh ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng cho m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c khung Bayes. Thay v\u00ec \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n nh\u1ecb ph\u00e2n, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tri\u1ec3n khai ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1eadp b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 ph\u1ed5 c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang.<\/p>\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>K\u1ecbch B\u1ea3n<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u1ea1m Vi EPS<\/th>\n<th>X\u00e1c Su\u1ea5t<\/th>\n<th>T\u00e1c \u0110\u1ed9ng Gi\u00e1 D\u1ef1 Ki\u1ebfn<\/th>\n<th>T\u1ea7n Su\u1ea5t L\u1ecbch S\u1eed<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Thi\u1ebfu H\u1ee5t \u0110\u00e1ng K\u1ec3<\/td>\n<td>&lt;5% d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>12%<\/td>\n<td>-7% \u0111\u1ebfn -12%<\/td>\n<td>4 trong 28 qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Thi\u1ebfu H\u1ee5t Nh\u1eb9<\/td>\n<td>0-5% d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>18%<\/td>\n<td>-2% \u0111\u1ebfn -6%<\/td>\n<td>5 trong 28 qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0110\u00fang D\u1ef1 Ki\u1ebfn<\/td>\n<td>\u00b11% c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>25%<\/td>\n<td>-1% \u0111\u1ebfn +2%<\/td>\n<td>7 trong 28 qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>V\u01b0\u1ee3t Qua<\/td>\n<td>1-10% tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>35%<\/td>\n<td>+2% \u0111\u1ebfn +5%<\/td>\n<td>9 trong 28 qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>V\u01b0\u1ee3t Qua M\u1ea1nh<\/td>\n<td>&gt;10% tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>10%<\/td>\n<td>+5% \u0111\u1ebfn +9%<\/td>\n<td>3 trong 28 qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>C\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u00fat ra to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed9 h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng cho 28 qu\u00fd b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i t l\u1ec7ch v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 (df=4.2, l\u1ec7ch=0.37). M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 theo ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m n\u00e0y n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch d\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh l\u00e0 0.37, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a ban qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 kho\u1ea3ng 3.8% d\u01b0\u1edbi k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a Pocket Option t\u00edch h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 theo ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed9 h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 Parzen v\u1edbi b\u0103ng th\u00f4ng h=0.08 cho c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m m\u1ecbn t\u1ed1i \u01b0u \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i phi tham s\u1ed1<\/li>\n<li>Tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1eeb 30 ng\u00e0y qua nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ti\u00ean \u0111\u1ec1 Bayes, \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n 2.4x cho c\u00e1c s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i x\u1ea3y ra trong v\u00f2ng 7 ng\u00e0y k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/li>\n<li>Th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0m tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 m\u0169 w(t) = e^(-0.18t) \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m, n\u01a1i t \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c qu\u00fd t\u1eeb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/li>\n<li>Hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i theo ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u00ecnh c\u1ea3m ng\u00f4n ng\u1eef c\u1ee7a CEO, \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ec7ch +0.11 cho m\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1eeb kh\u00f3a t\u00edch c\u1ef1c v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 3.2%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch D\u1ef1a Tr\u00ean Quy\u1ec1n Ch\u1ecdn Xung Quanh Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu Lly<\/h2>\n<p>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n tinh vi cho c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly, v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 ph\u00e1i sinh m\u00e3 h\u00f3a ng\u1ea7m k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3i m\u00e3 b\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00edch xu\u1ea5t c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n th\u00f4ng qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n<p>C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn Black-Scholes-Merton, m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh Khu\u1ebfch T\u00e1n Nh\u1ea3y L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn D\u01b0\u1ee3c Ph\u1ea9m l\u00e0 1.36, cho ph\u00e9p \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn xung quanh ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly. S\u1ef1 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00f4ng li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m sau c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o quy \u0111\u1ecbnh ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng l\u1edbn th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn.<\/p>\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 D\u1ef1a Tr\u00ean Quy\u1ec1n Ch\u1ecdn<\/th>\n<th>Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng Ph\u00e1p T\u00ednh To\u00e1n<\/th>\n<th>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb Di\u1ec5n Gi\u1ea3i<\/th>\n<th>\u0110\u1ecdc Hi\u1ec7n T\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a LLY<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Ng\u1ee5 \u00dd<\/td>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 straddle t\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n \u00f7 Gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/td>\n<td>K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>\u00b15.8% (so v\u1edbi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u00b14.7%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Put\/Call<\/td>\n<td>Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn put \u00f7 Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn call<\/td>\n<td>Ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o t\u00e2m l\u00fd cho th\u1ea5y xu h\u01b0\u1edbng h\u01b0\u1edbng<\/td>\n<td>0.78 (h\u01a1i l\u1ea1c quan so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh ng\u00e0nh 0.94)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>C\u1ea5u Tr\u00fac K\u1ef3 H\u1ea1n Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/td>\n<td>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ebd theo nhi\u1ec1u k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n<\/td>\n<td>Chi\u1ec1u th\u1eddi gian c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 d\u1ed1c 36% (d\u1ed1c h\u01a1n 87% c\u00e1c l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ecdc l\u1ecbch s\u1eed)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9 L\u1ec7ch \u0110\u1ea3o Nguy C\u01a1<\/td>\n<td>IV c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn call OTM &#8211; IV c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn put OTM<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111u\u00f4i cho c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ef1c \u0111oan<\/td>\n<td>-4.6% (nhi\u1ec1u lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 h\u01a1n 73% c\u00e1c quan s\u00e1t)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Pocket Option t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 straddle chu\u1ea9n h\u00f3a. K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c: Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng D\u1ef1 Ki\u1ebfn = (Gi\u00e1 Call ATM + Gi\u00e1 Put ATM) \u00f7 Gi\u00e1 C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu \u00d7 Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 \u0110i\u1ec1u Ch\u1ec9nh Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng D\u01b0\u1ee3c Ph\u1ea9m (1.21). \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly s\u1eafp t\u1edbi, t\u00ednh to\u00e1n n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 ra m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u00b15.8%, cung c\u1ea5p n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc cho vi\u1ec7c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed.<\/p>\n<h3>\u0110\u1ed9ng L\u1ef1c B\u1ec1 M\u1eb7t Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 Sau L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h3>\n<p>B\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ba chi\u1ec1u\u2014v\u1ebd b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd tr\u00ean c\u1ea3 gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n (moneyness) v\u00e0 ng\u00e0y h\u1ebft h\u1ea1n\u2014tr\u1ea3i qua c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xung quanh c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly. C\u1ea5u tr\u00fac to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p c\u1ea3 th\u00f4ng tin tr\u1ef1c quan v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>Tr\u01b0\u1edbc ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly, b\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t &#8220;v\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng&#8221; \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn 16.4% gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n bao quanh ng\u00e0y th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o. S\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y tu\u00e2n theo c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c c\u0103n b\u1eadc hai: Chi\u1ec1u Cao V\u00e1ch \u0110\u00e1 = Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng C\u01a1 S\u1edf \u00d7 \u221a(Ng\u00e0y \u0110\u1ebfn L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn \u00f7 365) \u00d7 Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 Kh\u00f4ng Ch\u1eafc Ch\u1eafn L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn. Sau th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o, v\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e1 n\u00e0y s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 trung b\u00ecnh 72% trong gi\u1edd giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ecbch v\u1edbi l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ed1i \u01b0u \u1edf 0.85 delta.<\/p>\n<h2>T\u00edch H\u1ee3p Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch C\u01a1 B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 K\u1ef9 Thu\u1eadt cho Giao D\u1ecbch Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h2>\n<p>C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt trong m\u1ed9t khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc m\u1ea1ch l\u1ea1c. S\u1ef1 t\u00edch h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi xem x\u00e9t s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty v\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c.<\/p>\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 C\u01a1 B\u1ea3n<\/th>\n<th>Ch\u1ec9 S\u1ed1 K\u1ef9 Thu\u1eadt<\/th>\n<th>C\u00e1ch Ti\u1ebfp C\u1eadn T\u00edch H\u1ee3p<\/th>\n<th>M\u1ed1i Quan H\u1ec7 To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 T\u0103ng Tr\u01b0\u1edfng Doanh Thu<\/td>\n<td>\u0110\u1ed9ng L\u1ef1c Gi\u00e1 (RSI)<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/td>\n<td>r = 0.73 v\u1edbi RSI 14 ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Xu H\u01b0\u1edbng Bi\u00ean L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn G\u1ed9p<\/td>\n<td>C\u00e1c M\u1ee9c H\u1ed7 Tr\u1ee3\/Kh\u00e1ng C\u1ef1<\/td>\n<td>Ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng bi\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1eadp b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh<\/td>\n<td>M\u1ed7i thay \u0111\u1ed5i 1% bi\u00ean = 4.2% d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ti\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9 \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed0ng R&amp;D<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch H\u1ed3 S\u01a1 Kh\u1ed1i L\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/td>\n<td>M\u1eabu t\u00edch l\u0169y t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c xung quanh c\u00e1c c\u1ed9t m\u1ed1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng<\/td>\n<td>3.8 l\u1ea7n kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ch\u00ednh<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ea1o D\u00f2ng Ti\u1ec1n<\/td>\n<td>H\u1ed9i T\u1ee5 Trung B\u00ecnh \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/td>\n<td>C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan v\u1edbi s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/td>\n<td>T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng FCF &gt;5% d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u00e1c giao c\u1eaft MA 50\/200 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 76%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>B\u1ea3ng \u0110i\u1ec1u Khi\u1ec3n Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch T\u00edch H\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a Pocket Option cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111i\u1ec3m s\u1ed1 t\u00f9y ch\u1ec9nh m\u00e0 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang trong c\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc m\u00e1y t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng gradient cho t\u1eadp d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111a chi\u1ec1u n\u00e0y v\u1edbi 17 bi\u1ebfn ch\u00ednh, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c m\u1eabu phi tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p m\u00e0 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 sau l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c 73%\u2014m\u1ed9t c\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u01a1n chi\u1ec1u.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n ma tr\u1eadn t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan ch\u00e9o gi\u1eefa 12 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 8 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt tr\u00ean 5 khung th\u1eddi gian kh\u00e1c nhau, ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 c\u00e1c c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1ed1i \u01b0u cho m\u1ed7i k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1<\/li>\n<li>Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0110i\u1ec3m Ch\u1ea5t L\u01b0\u1ee3ng L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u00fat ra t\u1eeb h\u1ed3i quy lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf ng\u01b0\u1ee3c (R\u00b2 = 0.68) k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u00e1o c\u00e1o t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c<\/li>\n<li>Th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh Markov chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u1ea1m vi VIX, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u t\u1ea1i VIX &lt;15 (w\u2081=0.65, w\u2082=0.35), VIX 15-25 (w\u2081=0.42, w\u2082=0.58), v\u00e0 VIX &gt;25 (w\u2081=0.31, w\u2082=0.69)<\/li>\n<li>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch lu\u00e2n chuy\u1ec3n s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i so s\u00e1nh t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 thay \u0111\u1ed5i 42 ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a LLY so v\u1edbi ETF ng\u00e0nh XLV, v\u1edbi t\u00ednh to\u00e1n alpha c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 theo d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m l\u1ecdc nhi\u1ec5u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 cao h\u01a1n 87% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc Qu\u1ea3n L\u00fd R\u1ee7i Ro cho Bi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ed9ng Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h2>\n<p>Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t xung quanh ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u00e1c khung qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro tinh vi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng tr\u00ean c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc. K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed, hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro, v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 v\u1ed1n ph\u1ea3i k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i phi Gaussian c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 trong c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng cao n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed t\u1ed1i \u01b0u cho c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m n\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng Ti\u00eau Ch\u00ed Kelly Ph\u00e2n \u0110o\u1ea1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi Y\u1ebfu T\u1ed1 \u0110i\u1ec1u Ch\u1ec9nh L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn D\u01b0\u1ee3c Ph\u1ea9m l\u00e0 0.43, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t cho ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i \u0111u\u00f4i m\u1eadp \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly. C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00f3a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u1edbi gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1ed1n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n t\u1ed1i \u01b0u.<\/p>\n<div class=\"table-container\">\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>K\u1ef9 Thu\u1eadt Qu\u1ea3n L\u00fd R\u1ee7i Ro<\/th>\n<th>C\u00f4ng Th\u1ee9c To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc<\/th>\n<th>\u1ee8ng D\u1ee5ng cho Giao D\u1ecbch L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/th>\n<th>Th\u1ef1c Hi\u1ec7n C\u1ee5 Th\u1ec3 cho LLY<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Ti\u00eau Ch\u00ed Kelly S\u1eeda \u0110\u1ed5i<\/td>\n<td>f* = (p \u00d7 b &#8211; q) \u00f7 b \u00d7 0.5 \u00d7 PEAF<\/td>\n<td>K\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb tr\u00ed b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i \u0111u\u00f4i m\u1eadp<\/td>\n<td>S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng PEAF = 0.43 cho LLY so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh ng\u00e0nh 0.51<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Gi\u00e1 Tr\u1ecb R\u1ee7i Ro C\u00f3 \u0110i\u1ec1u Ki\u1ec7n (CVaR)<\/td>\n<td>CVaR = E[X | X \u2264 VaR]<\/td>\n<td>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n r\u1ee7i ro \u0111u\u00f4i n\u1eafm b\u1eaft t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn v\u01b0\u1ee3t ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng VaR<\/td>\n<td>T\u00ednh to\u00e1n v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady 97.5% s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i t (df=4.2)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>T\u1ef7 L\u1ec7 Ph\u00f2ng Ng\u1eeba Quy\u1ec1n Ch\u1ecdn \u0110\u1ed9ng<\/td>\n<td>\u0394 = \u2202V\/\u2202S \u00d7 (1 + \u03c3\u2091\/\u03c3\u2098)<\/td>\n<td>Ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba delta \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cho c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>\u00c1p d\u1ee5ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u03c3\u2091\/\u03c3\u2098 = 2.76 cho LLY<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0110a D\u1ea1ng H\u00f3a D\u1ef1a Tr\u00ean T\u01b0\u01a1ng Quan<\/td>\n<td>Danh M\u1ee5c \u03c3\u00b2 = \u03a3 w\u00b2\u03c3\u00b2 + \u03a3\u03a3 w\u1d62w\u2c7c\u03c1\u1d62\u2c7c\u03c3\u1d62\u03c3\u2c7c<\/td>\n<td>\u0110a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c trong m\u00f9a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn<\/td>\n<td>S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan -0.23 c\u1ee7a LLY v\u1edbi VIX \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng b\u1ed9 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Pocket Option c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c, duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u01a1i nhi\u1ec5m t\u1ed1i \u01b0u ngay c\u1ea3 trong bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan xung quanh c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly. C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng Monte Carlo c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng cho ph\u00e9p ki\u1ec3m tra c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi 10,000 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh theo c\u00e1c tham s\u1ed1 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a LLY (kurtosis=4.7, l\u1ec7ch=0.37), x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c l\u1ed7 h\u1ed5ng danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3.<\/p>\n    <div class=\"po-container po-container_width_article\">\n        <a href=\"\/en\/quick-start\/\" class=\"po-line-banner po-article-page__line-banner\">\n            <svg class=\"svg-image po-line-banner__logo\" fill=\"currentColor\" width=\"auto\" height=\"auto\"\n                 aria-hidden=\"true\">\n                <use href=\"#svg-img-logo-white\"><\/use>\n            <\/svg>\n            <span class=\"po-line-banner__btn\">B\u1eaft \u0110\u1ea7u Giao D\u1ecbch<\/span>\n        <\/a>\n    <\/div>\n    \n<h2>K\u1ebft Lu\u1eadn: T\u1ed5ng H\u1ee3p Nh\u1eefng Hi\u1ec3u Bi\u1ebft To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc cho Th\u00e0nh C\u00f4ng L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn<\/h2>\n<p>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1c m\u1eabu ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho giao \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn v\u00e0 chuy\u00ean m\u00f4n ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea phi tuy\u1ebfn, l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn, ph\u00e2n r\u00e3 chu\u1ed7i th\u1eddi gian, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c khung x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t Bayes, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng cao n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n<p>C\u00e1c c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c m\u1eabu quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ed1n c\u00f3 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m. Thay v\u00ec theo \u0111u\u1ed5i m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tinh vi t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1eadp b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd cho ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p, v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro-\u0111\u1ebfn-l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c.<\/p>\n<p>B\u1ed9 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Pocket Option d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 h\u00f3a quy\u1ec1n truy c\u1eadp v\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ea5p t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch l\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 c\u00e1c c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly v\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 theo ng\u00e0nh d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00eau trong ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c k\u00e9m hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 v\u1eabn v\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n<p>Nh\u01b0 v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p n\u00e0o, hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft ch\u00ednh kh\u00f4ng n\u1eb1m \u1edf vi\u1ec7c theo \u0111u\u1ed5i d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o m\u00e0 l\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n th\u00f4ng qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t, tinh ch\u1ec9nh m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh li\u00ean t\u1ee5c, v\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 theo ng\u00e0nh. Trong khi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m s\u1ebd lu\u00f4n ch\u1ee9a \u0111\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, c\u00e1c khung to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y cung c\u1ea5p la b\u00e0n \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t do c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly mang l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n"},"faq":[{"question":"Ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly l\u00e0 g\u00ec?","answer":"Ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o h\u00e0ng qu\u00fd c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 khi Eli Lilly c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, th\u01b0\u1eddng di\u1ec5n ra v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng M\u1ed9t, th\u00e1ng T\u01b0, th\u00e1ng B\u1ea3y v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng M\u01b0\u1eddi. S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m vi\u1ec7c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 chi ti\u1ebft v\u1ec1 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u doanh thu, thu nh\u1eadp tr\u00ean m\u1ed7i c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu (EPS), c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt v\u1ec1 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng R&D v\u00e0 h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m, nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n th\u00f4ng tin quan tr\u1ecdng m\u00e0 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 ph\u1ea1m vi giao d\u1ecbch b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb 40-60%."},{"question":"L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 thu nh\u1eadp s\u1eafp t\u1edbi c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly?","answer":"Ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 thu nh\u1eadp s\u1eafp t\u1edbi c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y th\u00f4ng qua m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ngu\u1ed3n uy t\u00edn: trang web quan h\u1ec7 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a Eli Lilly (investor.lilly.com\/events), c\u00e1c c\u1ed5ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh nh\u01b0 Bloomberg ho\u1eb7c FactSet, c\u00e1c ph\u1ea7n l\u1ecbch thu nh\u1eadp tr\u00ean c\u00e1c trang web t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u1edbn, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c c\u1ed5ng nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty m\u00f4i gi\u1edbi, ho\u1eb7c th\u00f4ng qua l\u1ecbch thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a Pocket Option bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0o d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 sau khi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 thu nh\u1eadp?","answer":"Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb n\u00e0o d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly, nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd thu nh\u1eadp (h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 0.67), \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd (-0.43 cho d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m), t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch trong 7 ng\u00e0y cu\u1ed1i (t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n 2.4 l\u1ea7n), v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u1eeb quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn cung c\u1ea5p s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n nh\u1ea5t k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y trong m\u1ed9t khung h\u1ed3i quy phi tuy\u1ebfn v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m, \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng 73% trong c\u00e1c qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y."},{"question":"T\u00f4i n\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o xung quanh c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly?","answer":"Th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c sau: (1) Gi\u1ea3m k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb th\u1ebf xu\u1ed1ng 43% \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 kurtosis 4.7 c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn thu nh\u1eadp d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m; (2) S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf cho m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m IV trung b\u00ecnh 37.2% x\u1ea3y ra sau th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o; (3) \u0110\u1eb7t m\u1ee9c d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u00ednh to\u00e1n di chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn (gi\u00e1 straddle ATM \u00f7 gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u00d7 1.21); v\u00e0 (4) C\u00e2n nh\u1eafc c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c strangle ho\u1eb7c iron condor c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m thay v\u00ec \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c theo h\u01b0\u1edbng tr\u1eeb khi b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd t\u1eeb m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p. Ki\u1ec3m tra l\u1ea1i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Pocket Option cho th\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh n\u00e0y c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro l\u00ean 63% trong c\u00e1c m\u00f9a thu nh\u1eadp d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m."},{"question":"M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly l\u00e0 g\u00ec?","answer":"Eli Lilly cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch: c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o EPS \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn trong 72% c\u00e1c qu\u00fd k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2020, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd trung b\u00ecnh l\u00e0 7,3%. Tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh - v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh d\u01b0\u1edbi 5% \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c trong 63% tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p do hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \"gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t thu nh\u1eadp\" \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cao. S\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khai th\u00e1c cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 hi\u1ec3u m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 b\u1eadc hai gi\u1eefa m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng gi\u00e1."}],"faq_source":{"label":"FAQ","type":"repeater","formatted_value":[{"question":"Ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly l\u00e0 g\u00ec?","answer":"Ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o h\u00e0ng qu\u00fd c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 khi Eli Lilly c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, th\u01b0\u1eddng di\u1ec5n ra v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng M\u1ed9t, th\u00e1ng T\u01b0, th\u00e1ng B\u1ea3y v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng M\u01b0\u1eddi. S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m vi\u1ec7c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 chi ti\u1ebft v\u1ec1 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u doanh thu, thu nh\u1eadp tr\u00ean m\u1ed7i c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu (EPS), c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt v\u1ec1 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng R&D v\u00e0 h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m, nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m u\u1ed1n th\u00f4ng tin quan tr\u1ecdng m\u00e0 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 ph\u1ea1m vi giao d\u1ecbch b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb 40-60%."},{"question":"L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 thu nh\u1eadp s\u1eafp t\u1edbi c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly?","answer":"Ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 thu nh\u1eadp s\u1eafp t\u1edbi c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y th\u00f4ng qua m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ngu\u1ed3n uy t\u00edn: trang web quan h\u1ec7 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a Eli Lilly (investor.lilly.com\/events), c\u00e1c c\u1ed5ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh nh\u01b0 Bloomberg ho\u1eb7c FactSet, c\u00e1c ph\u1ea7n l\u1ecbch thu nh\u1eadp tr\u00ean c\u00e1c trang web t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u1edbn, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c c\u1ed5ng nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty m\u00f4i gi\u1edbi, ho\u1eb7c th\u00f4ng qua l\u1ecbch thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a Pocket Option bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i."},{"question":"Nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0o d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 sau khi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 thu nh\u1eadp?","answer":"Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb n\u00e0o d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly, nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd thu nh\u1eadp (h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan 0.67), \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ee5 \u00fd (-0.43 cho d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m), t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch trong 7 ng\u00e0y cu\u1ed1i (t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n 2.4 l\u1ea7n), v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u1eeb quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn cung c\u1ea5p s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n nh\u1ea5t k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y trong m\u1ed9t khung h\u1ed3i quy phi tuy\u1ebfn v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m, \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng 73% trong c\u00e1c qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y."},{"question":"T\u00f4i n\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o xung quanh c\u00e1c ng\u00e0y c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly?","answer":"Th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c sau: (1) Gi\u1ea3m k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ecb th\u1ebf xu\u1ed1ng 43% \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 kurtosis 4.7 c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn thu nh\u1eadp d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m; (2) S\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf cho m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m IV trung b\u00ecnh 37.2% x\u1ea3y ra sau th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o; (3) \u0110\u1eb7t m\u1ee9c d\u1eebng l\u1ed7 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u00ednh to\u00e1n di chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn (gi\u00e1 straddle ATM \u00f7 gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u00d7 1.21); v\u00e0 (4) C\u00e2n nh\u1eafc c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c strangle ho\u1eb7c iron condor c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m thay v\u00ec \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c theo h\u01b0\u1edbng tr\u1eeb khi b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd t\u1eeb m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p. Ki\u1ec3m tra l\u1ea1i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Pocket Option cho th\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh n\u00e0y c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh r\u1ee7i ro l\u00ean 63% trong c\u00e1c m\u00f9a thu nh\u1eadp d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m."},{"question":"M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu lly l\u00e0 g\u00ec?","answer":"Eli Lilly cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch: c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o EPS \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn trong 72% c\u00e1c qu\u00fd k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2020, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd trung b\u00ecnh l\u00e0 7,3%. Tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh - v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh d\u01b0\u1edbi 5% \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c trong 63% tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p do hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \"gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t thu nh\u1eadp\" \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu d\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea9m c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb cao. S\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khai th\u00e1c cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 hi\u1ec3u m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 b\u1eadc hai gi\u1eefa m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng gi\u00e1."}]}},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ng\u00e0y C\u00f4ng B\u1ed1 L\u1ee3i Nhu\u1eadn C\u1ed5 Phi\u1ebfu Lly: C\u00e1c M\u00f4 H\u00ecnh To\u00e1n H\u1ecdc \u0110\u00e3 \u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c Ch\u1ee9ng Minh Cho Nh\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/vt\/news-events\/data\/lly-stock-earnings-date\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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