{"id":315783,"date":"2025-07-19T11:34:58","date_gmt":"2025-07-19T11:34:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/news-events\/data\/is-it-worth-buying-american-stocks\/"},"modified":"2025-07-19T11:34:58","modified_gmt":"2025-07-19T11:34:58","slug":"is-it-worth-buying-american-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pocketoption.com\/blog\/en\/knowledge-base\/learning\/is-it-worth-buying-american-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"Is it worth buying Americanas shares: 2024 Analysis for Brazilian investors"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Current Panorama of Americanas Shares in the Brazilian Market<\/h2><\/div>

The value of Americanas shares has fallen more than 90% since January 2023, when the R$20 billion accounting scandal came to light. This vertiginous drop transformed one of Brazil's largest retailers into a case of high risk and potential return: is it worth buying Americanas shares in this scenario?<\/p><\/div>

Americanas, with its 93-year history and more than 1,700 physical stores (pre-crisis), suffered the biggest shock in its trajectory when it revealed accounting inconsistencies of R$20 billion in January 2023. In a single day (January 12, 2023), its shares plummeted 77.33%, quickly leading the company to a judicial recovery process with declared debts of R$43 billion.<\/p><\/div>

For Brazilian investors who use Pocket Option, a platform that offers advanced technical analysis tools, scenario simulators, and personalized alerts, understanding the current dynamics of Americanas shares is essential. The platform allows you to configure alerts for significant movements of the stock (AMER3), as well as offering comparative charts with other retailers in the sector.<\/p><\/div>

Retrospective: The Crisis and the Judicial Recovery Process<\/h2><\/div>

To assess whether it's worth buying Americanas shares today, it's essential to understand the exact chronology of the crisis. On January 11, 2023, then-CEO Sergio Rial resigned after only 9 days in office, revealing \"accounting inconsistencies\" of R$20 billion related mainly to risk discount operations not properly accounted for since at least 2016.<\/p><\/div>

Event<\/th>Date<\/th>Impact on Shares<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
CEO's resignation and announcement of inconsistencies<\/td>01\/11\/2023<\/td>Drop of 77.33% on 01\/12\/2023<\/td><\/tr>
Filing for Judicial Recovery<\/td>01\/19\/2023<\/td>Shares at R$1.00, accumulated drop of 93% in one week<\/td><\/tr>
Approval of recovery plan<\/td>12\/19\/2023<\/td>31.5% rise the next day<\/td><\/tr>
Implementation of debt conversion<\/td>1st quarter\/2024<\/td>Volatility of \u00b115% on announcement days<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

The approved judicial recovery plan includes an injection of R$12 billion, with R$3.5 billion from the reference shareholders (Jorge Paulo Lemann, Marcel Telles, and Carlos Alberto Sicupira) and R$8.5 billion from debt conversion to equity. For those analyzing whether it's worth buying Americanas shares, this plan represents both a recapitalization opportunity and a significant dilution risk for current shareholders.<\/p><\/div>

Fundamentalist Analysis: Current Numbers and Projections<\/h2><\/div>

Traditional fundamentalist analysis fails when trying to answer whether it's worth buying American shares in the current context. With a net loss of R$12.9 billion reported in 2023, indicators such as P\/E (Price\/Earnings) become negative and uninformative. In this scenario, investors should focus on alternative metrics such as the evolution of operational cash flow, debt reduction, and gradual recovery of margins.<\/p><\/div>

Post-Crisis Financial Indicators<\/h3><\/div>
Indicator<\/th>Q1 2024 Value<\/th>Sector Average<\/th>Analysis<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Net debt<\/td>R$37.3 billion<\/td>2.5x EBITDA<\/td>Forecast reduction to R$25 billion by 2025<\/td><\/tr>
EBITDA Margin<\/td>-12.3%<\/td>7-10%<\/td>Target of positive EBITDA by Q4 2024<\/td><\/tr>
Operational Cash Flow<\/td>-R$1.2 billion (quarterly)<\/td>Positive<\/td>Projection of balance by Q1 2025<\/td><\/tr>
Market Value\/Revenue<\/td>0.18x<\/td>1.2x<\/td>Potential for revaluation of up to 566% aligning with the sector average<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

Pocket Option provides customizable dashboards that allow you to monitor these indicators in real time, comparing them with other retail companies such as Magazine Luiza (MGLU3) and Via (VIIA3). An interesting fact: Americanas' Market Value\/Revenue ratio is 85% below the sector average, suggesting potential for appreciation if the company manages to stabilize its operations.<\/p><\/div>

Recovery Projections<\/h3><\/div>

Analysts from five major Brazilian brokerages recently released projections to try to answer whether it's worth buying Americanas shares in the coming years:<\/p><\/div>

Scenario<\/th>Time Horizon<\/th>Target Price (R$)<\/th>Potential Return<\/th>Estimated Probability<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Pessimistic<\/td>5+ years<\/td>0.40-0.60<\/td>-50% to -25%<\/td>30-40%<\/td><\/tr>
Moderate<\/td>3-5 years<\/td>2.00-4.00<\/td>150-400%<\/td>40-50%<\/td><\/tr>
Optimistic<\/td>2-3 years<\/td>5.00-8.00<\/td>525-900%<\/td>10-20%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div>

Pocket Option offers potential return calculators that allow you to simulate these different scenarios, including considering reinvestment of dividends when the company starts distributing them again (estimates point to 2026-2027). A counter-intuitive aspect: the annualized ROI tends to be higher for investors who enter when there are already concrete signs of recovery, even at a price 50-70% above the current one.<\/p><\/div>

Technical Analysis and Stock Behavior<\/h2><\/div>

Americanas shares (AMER3) exhibited extremely volatile behavior in 2023-2024, with daily oscillations frequently exceeding 10%. Important technical levels include supports at R$0.80 and R$0.65, with significant resistances at R$1.20 and R$1.50. Pocket Option offers tools such as Fibonacci Retracement and Bollinger Bands, particularly useful for identifying entry and exit points in highly volatile assets like AMER3.<\/p><\/div>

The behavior of Americanas shares presents particularities that interest experienced traders:<\/p><\/div>