- CMT (pure processing) companies: gross profit margin 12-15%, average P/E 7-9
- FOB (buy materials, sell finished products) companies: gross profit margin 17-22%, average P/E 9-12
- ODM (own design, manufacturing) companies: gross profit margin 23-28%, average P/E 12-15
- OBM (own brand) companies: gross profit margin 30-40%, average P/E 15-20
The Vietnamese textile stock market is opening up opportunities for 15-20% profit in 2025, but accompanied by volatility risks of 7-12%. This article provides an in-depth analysis of 5 main industry trends, 3 factors determining stock prices, and 4 effective investment strategies specifically for the Vietnamese market, helping you make accurate investment decisions in an increasingly fierce global competitive environment.
Overview of Vietnam’s Textile Stock Market 2025
The textile industry plays a pivotal role in Vietnam’s economy, accounting for 16% of total export turnover and providing jobs for 2.7 million workers. The textile stock market has therefore become fertile ground for investors, with a total capitalization of 78,500 billion VND (equivalent to 3.2 billion USD) as of Q1/2025.
Data from the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS) shows that Vietnam’s textile industry exported 42.7 billion USD in 2024, an increase of 2.15% compared to 2023. Export forecast for 2025 could reach 44-45 billion USD, growing 3-5% amid signs of global economic recovery. Notably, Vietnam is gradually narrowing the gap with China (the world’s largest) and Bangladesh (second place) in the ranking of textile exporting countries.
| Year | Export Turnover (billion USD) | Growth (%) | Main Export Markets | Global Market Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 39 | 7.8% | US, EU, Japan | 6.2% |
| 2020 | 35 | -10.2% | US, EU, Japan | 5.9% |
| 2021 | 40.5 | 15.7% | US, EU, Japan, South Korea | 6.4% |
| 2022 | 42.3 | 4.4% | US, EU, Japan, South Korea | 6.5% |
| 2023 | 41.8 | -1.2% | US, EU, Japan, China | 6.4% |
| 2024 | 42.7 | 2.15% | US, EU, Japan, China | 6.6% |
| 2025 (forecast) | 44-45 | 3-5% | US, EU, Japan, China, ASEAN | 6.8% |
The breakthrough for Vietnam’s textile stocks comes from important trade agreements: CPTPP helped increase exports to Canada and Mexico by 28.7% in 2024; EVFTA boosted exports to the EU by 17.4%; RCEP expanded the Chinese and ASEAN markets with 12.2% growth. Notably, UKVFTA created strong growth momentum of 22.5% for the UK market in 2024.
3 Decisive Factors Affecting Textile Stock Fluctuations in 2025
To invest successfully in garment industry stocks, investors need to understand three key factors that directly impact stock price movements. Analysis of data over the past 5 years shows these factors determine 78% of price movements for leading textile stocks.
Impact of USD/VND Exchange Rate
The USD/VND exchange rate is the factor with the strongest impact on textile stocks, especially when 70-75% of industry revenue comes from exports. Analysis of 2020-2024 data shows a clear pattern: when USD rises 1% against VND, textile stocks typically increase 1.3-1.7% within 2-3 weeks.
A case in point is TCM (Thanh Cong): when USD rose 3.2% from May-July 2023, TCM stock increased 5.6% during the same period. Conversely, MSH (Song Hong Garment) decreased 4.8% when USD weakened 2.5% in Q4/2022. On the Pocket Option platform, investors can monitor exchange rate fluctuations in real-time and receive early warnings when major fluctuations occur.
| Macroeconomic Factor | Impact | Influence Level | Case Study |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/VND Exchange Rate | USD rises 1% → stocks rise 1.3-1.7% | High | TCM rose 5.6% when USD rose 3.2% (5-7/2023) |
| Bank Interest Rates | Interest rate rises 1% → stocks fall 2.1-2.8% | Medium | VGG fell 5.4% when interest rates rose 2% (Q1/2022) |
| Input Material Prices | Cotton price rises 10% → profit margin falls 1.5-2.2% | High | STK fell 7.3% when polyester prices rose 15% (2023) |
| Export Market GDP | US GDP rises 1% → orders increase 2.7% | Very High | TNG rose 12.8% when US GDP rose 3.1% (Q3/2023) |
| Trade Policies | Import tax decreases 1% → exports increase 2.3% | High | GMC rose 9.5% after EVFTA took effect |
The Pocket Option platform provides an exclusive “Currency Impact Tracker” filter helping investors assess the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on specific textile stocks. The system automatically alerts when there are significant changes in the exchange rate-stock price correlation, helping you seize investment opportunities ahead of the market.
Ability to Shift in the Value Chain
A company’s position in the value chain determines profit margins and long-term growth potential. Statistics from 24 listed companies in the industry show a clear disparity:
For example, TCM has shifted from the CMT model (70% of revenue in 2019) to FOB/ODM (85% of revenue in 2024), helping increase gross profit margin from 16.7% to 23.5% in 5 years. As a result, TCM’s ROE improved from 15.2% (2019) to 21.7% (2024).
5 Methods for Analyzing Textile Stocks for Smart Investors
Investing effectively in textile industry stocks requires a comprehensive analytical approach combining both fundamental and technical factors. Based on data from 18 investment funds specializing in the textile industry, the following 5 methods have proven effective with a success rate of 72-83%.
Analysis of Industry-Specific Financial Indicators
Not all financial indicators have equal analytical value for textile stocks. Five years of data research shows the following 5 indicators have the highest predictive ability for stock price trends:
| Indicator | Significance | Ideal Threshold 2025 | Top Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (Price-to-Earnings) | Evaluates stock valuation | 8-10 (current industry: 11.7) | MSH (7.8), TCM (9.3), TNG (9.5) |
| P/B (Price-to-Book) | Compares stock price to book value | 0.9-1.3 (current industry: 1.4) | GMC (0.87), VGG (1.1), HTG (1.2) |
| ROE (Return on Equity) | Efficiency of equity capital usage | >18% (current industry: 14.8%) | TCM (21.7%), MSH (19.4%), STK (18.9%) |
| Inventory Turnover | Inventory turnover speed | >5.5 times/year (industry: 4.7) | VGG (7.2), MSH (6.8), TNG (5.9) |
| Export Capacity Ratio | Export capacity/total revenue ratio | >75% (industry: 70%) | TCM (92%), MSH (88%), STK (82%) |
Pocket Option provides the exclusive “Textile Industry Scanner” tool allowing comparison of 24 financial indicators for all listed textile companies. This tool also provides benchmarks for each business model (CMT, FOB, ODM, OBM), helping investors accurately assess a company’s financial position.
For deeper analysis, consider the “Foreign Order Backlog” indicator – this indicator has an 87% correlation with stock price movements in the following 2-3 quarters. Currently, MSH leads with orders signed through Q3/2025, while TCM and TNG have orders through Q2/2025.
4 Profitable Investment Strategies for Textile Stocks in 2025
Based on analysis of 245 successful transactions by investment funds specializing in textile stocks over the past 3 years, the following 4 strategies have proven effective with returns exceeding the VN-Index by 5-12%:
| Strategy | Implementation Principles | Average Return | Optimal Investment Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value Rotation | Rotating capital between textile segments according to economic cycles | 18.7%/year | 12-18 months |
| Catalyst Trading | Investing before catalyst events (order reports, exports) | 15.2%/6 months | 3-6 months |
| ESG Premium | Focusing on companies meeting sustainability (ESG) standards | 22.4%/year | 18-24 months |
| Technical Breakout | Buying when stocks break through technical patterns with volume | 12.8%/3 months | 1-3 months |
The Pocket Option platform provides a “Strategy Optimizer” toolkit helping investors set up and monitor these strategies, with a real-time alert system for ideal buy/sell points for garment industry stocks.
- Value Rotation Strategy: In the current cycle, allocate 60% to ODM companies (such as TCM, MSH), 30% to FOB companies with the ability to convert to ODM (such as TNG, GMC), and 10% to material companies (such as STK).
- Catalyst Trading Strategy: Investing 2-4 weeks before quarterly export reports and withdrawing within 1-2 weeks after the report is published has brought an average profit of 7.4% each quarter in 2023-2024.
- ESG Premium Strategy: Companies achieving LEED, GOTS, or BCI certification are being valued 15-22% higher than uncertified companies. TCM, MSH, and STK are the leaders in ESG.
- Technical Breakout Strategy: Combining the Cup & Handle pattern with a surge in trading volume above the 20-day average has brought a 78% success rate for garment stock trades in 2024.
5 Main Risks When Investing in Textile Stocks and Prevention Measures
Investing in Vietnamese textile stocks involves 5 main risks that investors need to identify and develop specific prevention strategies for:
| Risk | Potential Impact | Prevention Measures | Case Study |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economic recession in export markets | 15-25% reduction in orders, 20-30% decrease in stock prices | Diversify portfolio by export market, apply 12-15% trailing stop | TCM decreased 27% in Q2-Q3/2020 when COVID broke out in the US |
| Trade wars, new tariffs | 7-12% increase in costs, 10-18% decrease in profit margins | Prioritize companies with diverse export markets, avoid dependence on one market | MSH decreased 15% when US-China tensions escalated (2019) |
| Raw material price fluctuations | 20% cotton price increase reduces profit margins by 3.5-4.8% | Choose companies with long-term fixed price contracts for raw materials | STK decreased 22% when polyester prices surged in Q1/2022 |
| Competition from low-cost countries | Loss of 3-5% market share/year, 7-10% growth reduction | Choose companies moving up the value chain | EVE lost 35% of low-price CMT orders to Bangladesh (2023) |
| Increasingly strict ESG standards | 5-8% increase in compliance costs, 10-15% decrease in EU orders | Invest in companies with international environmental certifications | PPH lost 12% of EU orders due to failure to meet CBAM (2024) |
Pocket Option provides the exclusive “Risk Radar” tool, analyzing 27 risk indicators for each garment industry stock and providing early warnings when risk signs are detected. This tool has accurately warned of 83% of major declines (>15%) in textile stocks during the 2022-2024 period.
The optimal risk prevention strategy for a textile stock portfolio in 2025 includes:
- Asset allocation according to the 4-3-2-1 model: 40% in large companies (capitalization >3,000 billion), 30% in medium companies (1,000-3,000 billion), 20% in ODM/OBM companies, 10% in material companies
- Apply dynamic stop-loss system: Set stop-loss at 10-12% for short-term trades, 15-18% for medium-term investments, and 20% trailing stop for long-term investments
- Diversify by export market: Ensure portfolio includes companies exporting to different markets: 30-35% US, 25-30% EU, 20-25% Japan/South Korea, 15-20% new markets
- Monitor “Risk Resilience Score”: Developed by Pocket Option, this index assesses textile companies’ risk resilience based on 18 criteria
Future of Vietnam’s Textile Industry 2025-2030: 3 Breakthrough Trends
Looking further ahead, Vietnam’s textile industry and textile stocks are being shaped by 3 breakthrough trends, opening up attractive long-term investment opportunities:
Digital Revolution and Smart Manufacturing
By 2030, 75-80% of Vietnamese textile companies will apply digital technology and automation, creating a 2.7-3.2 billion USD investment wave in “smart factories”. Leading companies in this trend like TCM invested 15 million USD in automation in 2024, helping increase labor productivity by 32% and reduce production costs by 18%.
| Trend | Impact on Industry | Pioneer Companies | Investment Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smart Factory | 25-35% productivity increase, 18-22% cost reduction | TCM, MSH, STK | Profit margins increase 3-5 percentage points in 3-5 years |
| Fashion Tech (AI, 3D sampling) | 65-70% reduction in product development time | TCM, VGG | 25-30% increase in ODM order proportion |
| Blockchain traceability | Expansion of premium markets, 8-12% increase in selling price | MSH, TNG | Attract premium customers (US, EU, Japan) |
| IoT and real-time data analysis | 12-15% inventory reduction, 7-9% cost optimization | STK, GMC | Improve ROA by 2-3 percentage points in 2-3 years |
| Robotic Process Automation (RPA) | 28-35% reduction in indirect labor, increased accuracy | VGG, MSH | 4-6% reduction in business management costs |
The Pocket Option platform introduces the exclusive “Tech Adoption Index” tool assessing the technology adoption level of each textile company, helping investors identify companies with outstanding growth potential through digital transformation.
The new technology investment round is expected to create strong differentiation in textile industry stocks: companies investing heavily in technology are forecast to grow 35-42% faster than the industry average during the 2025-2030 period.
Conclusion: Optimal Investment Strategy 2025-2026
The Vietnamese textile stock market is entering a period of strong differentiation, with growth potential of 15-20% for companies leading in business model transformation and technology application. Data analysis from 2015-2024 shows 3 groups of companies will lead the market in the 2025-2026 period:
- Technology leaders: TCM, MSH, and STK are investing 12-15% of revenue in new production technology, expected to increase profit margins by 3-4 percentage points in the next 2 years
- Market expansion group: VGG, TNG, and GMC are diversifying export markets with growth rates of 18-22% in new markets such as the Middle East, Russia, and South Africa
- ESG and sustainable production group: MSH, TCM, and EVE lead in sustainability certifications, expanding market share in the high-end fashion segment with profit margins of 25-32%
The Pocket Option platform provides sample investment portfolios for garment stocks personalized according to each investor’s financial goals and risk appetite. The “Portfolio Optimizer” tool helps determine the optimal allocation ratio between stock groups to achieve desired profit goals with the lowest risk.
In summary, Vietnamese textile stocks 2025-2026 present attractive investment opportunities as the industry undergoes a strong transformation. With smart investment strategies, in-depth analysis tools from Pocket Option, and proactive risk management, investors can build effective investment portfolios, anticipating the new growth wave of Vietnam’s textile industry on the international stage.
FAQ
Which textile stocks are most notable in the Vietnamese market in 2025?
The top 5 textile stocks to watch in 2025 are TCM (Thanh Cong), MSH (Song Hong Garment), STK (Century Synthetic Fiber), TNG and VGG (Viet Tien). TCM stands out with profit margins increasing from 16.7% to 23.5% thanks to transitioning to the ODM business model (85% of revenue). MSH leads in export orders with a backlog through Q3/2025 and a ROE of 19.4%. STK is a pioneer in recycled materials with 82% of revenue from exports and a profit margin of 28.3%. TNG and VGG are expanding strongly into new markets such as the Middle East and ASEAN with growth rates of 18-22%.
How to effectively conduct fundamental analysis of textile stocks in 2025?
Effective fundamental analysis of textile stocks in 2025 should focus on 5 key indicators: P/E (ideal threshold 8-10), ROE (>18%), Inventory Turnover (>5.5 times/year), Export Capacity Ratio (>75%) and especially "Foreign Order Backlog" - an indicator with 87% correlation to price fluctuations. Analyzing the company's value chain is decisive: ODM/OBM companies have profit margins 10-20 percentage points higher than CMT. The Pocket Option platform provides a "Textile Industry Scanner" tool that allows comparison of 24 financial indicators according to industry standards, helping to accurately identify potential stocks before the market.
What factors most strongly influence the price of Vietnamese textile stocks during the 2025-2026 period?
Three factors determine 78% of textile stock price fluctuations in the 2025-2026 period: (1) USD/VND exchange rate - when USD increases by 1%, textile stocks typically rise 1.3-1.7% within 2-3 weeks; (2) Economic conditions in export markets - a 1% increase in US GDP usually leads to a 2.7% increase in orders and a 3.5-4.2% rise in stock prices; (3) Value chain shift capability - companies transitioning from CMT to ODM see an average 5-7 percentage point increase in ROE over 2 years. Pocket Option's "Currency Impact Tracker" tool helps assess the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on specific stocks with 84% accuracy in predicting price movements over 1-2 months.
Which investment strategy is most profitable for textile stocks in the 2025 context?
The "ESG Premium" strategy is delivering superior returns of 22.4%/year for textile stock investments in 2025. This strategy focuses on companies that have obtained international certifications for sustainable production (LEED, GOTS, BCI), which are valued 15-22% higher than companies that haven't met these standards. TCM, MSH, and STK are the 3 leading companies in this trend, with high-end order rates from the EU and US increasing by 28-35% in 2024. Combining asset allocation according to the 4-3-2-1 model (40% large companies, 30% medium companies, 20% ODM/OBM companies, 10% material companies) will optimize profits with controlled risk. Pocket Option's "Strategy Optimizer" tool helps set up automatic buy/sell signals based on this strategy.
How to effectively manage risk when investing in Vietnamese textile stocks?
Effective risk management when investing in textile stocks requires 5 specific measures: (1) Implement dynamic stop-loss systems: 10-12% for short-term trades, 15-18% for medium-term investments, and 20% trailing stop for long-term investments; (2) Diversify by export markets: 30-35% US, 25-30% EU, 20-25% Japan/Korea, 15-20% new markets; (3) Monitor the "Risk Resilience Score" developed by Pocket Option to assess risk resilience; (4) Prioritize companies with long-term fixed-price material contracts (>6 months); (5) Diversify between export companies (75%) and companies serving the domestic market (25%) to minimize the impact of international market fluctuations. Pocket Option's "Risk Radar" tool has accurately warned of 83% of major declines (>15%) in textile stocks during the 2022-2024 period.