- Coal reserves: Mines in Quang Ninh have extraction capability for at least 25-30 more years at current capacity
- Operational efficiency: Companies applying new technology have reduced labor costs by 28-35%
- Financial structure: The industry’s average debt/equity ratio has decreased from 1.8 to 1.3 over the past 2 years
- Diversification strategy: 40% of coal companies are expanding into other minerals and logistics
Pocket Option: Coal industry stocks - Comprehensive investment guide for Vietnam market 2025
The coal industry plays an important role in Vietnam's economy, contributing 10% of national energy needs and creating jobs for more than 150,000 workers. Coal industry stocks are becoming the focus of investor attention amid market volatility and new energy policies. This article provides an in-depth analysis of potential, risks, and effective investment strategies for Vietnamese investors in 2025.
Overview of coal industry stocks in Vietnam 2025
The coal industry in Vietnam has a development history of over 100 years with considerable coal reserves of up to 2.26 billion tons, mainly concentrated in Quang Ninh area – which provides about 90% of the country’s coal output. Coal industry stocks currently account for about 5% of Vietnam’s stock market capitalization and are attracting special attention in the context of strong energy demand growth, with an increase of 8-10% annually.
Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin) currently manages 85% of domestic coal mining activities, with a production capacity of 40 million tons/year. Prominent coal stocks on the Vietnamese stock market include: TDN (Deo Nai Coal), TC6 (Coc Sau Coal), THT (Ha Tu Coal), and MDC (Mong Duong Coal) – companies that have proven stable profitability with an average dividend yield of 6-8% over the past 5 years.
| Stock code | Company name | Listed exchange | EPS (2024) | P/E (TTM) | Dividend (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDN | Deo Nai Coal JSC – Vinacomin | UPCOM | 3,560 VND | 8.2 | 7.5% |
| TC6 | Coc Sau Coal JSC – Vinacomin | HNX | 2,980 VND | 9.1 | 6.8% |
| THT | Ha Tu Coal JSC – Vinacomin | HNX | 2,450 VND | 10.2 | 6.2% |
| MDC | Mong Duong Coal JSC – Vinacomin | UPCOM | 3,120 VND | 7.8 | 8.1% |
The Pocket Option trading platform has recorded a 43% increase in coal stock transactions in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting growing investor interest. According to exclusive data from Pocket Option, coal stocks have an average price fluctuation of 15-18% quarterly, creating great opportunities for both short-term and long-term investors.
Factors affecting coal stock prices in Vietnam
Unlike developed markets, coal industry stocks in Vietnam are strongly impacted by factors specific to developing economies. The latest research from Pocket Option (2024) indicates that 65% of Vietnamese coal stock price movements come from domestic macroeconomic factors, 25% from international market fluctuations, and 10% from company-specific factors.
Key macroeconomic factors
Vietnam’s GDP growth, forecast at 6.8% in 2025, is driving electricity demand up by about 9.5% – higher than the ASEAN average growth (6.2%). With 32% of national electricity still coming from coal-fired power plants, this is a strong driver for the coal industry. Notably, Power Development Plan VIII has adjusted to reduce the share of coal-fired power to 25-27% by 2030, instead of 20% as previously planned – a positive signal for coal stocks in the next 5 years.
| Macroeconomic factor | Impact level | 2025-2026 forecast | Impact on coal stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | High | 6.8-7.2% | Strongly positive (+) |
| Power Development Plan VIII policy | Very high | Adjustment to increase coal proportion | Positive (+) |
| Global coal prices | Medium-high | Increase by 15-20% | Positive for exporting companies (+) |
| Carbon tax | High (from 2026) | 15-25 USD/ton CO2 | Negative (-) |
| Interest rates | Medium | Decrease by 0.5-1% | Positive (+) |
Key corporate factors
Analysis of 35 Vietnamese coal companies shows 4 main factors determining stock performance: mining efficiency, operating costs, reserves, and dividend policy. Companies that have invested in automation technology (such as THT and TC6) are recording 18-25% improved profit margins compared to the previous year.
Pocket Option provides an exclusive analysis tool “Coal Stock Health Radar” helping investors quickly assess 15 important financial indicators of coal stocks in just seconds. Data from more than 15,000 investors using this tool shows that TDN and MDC stocks are currently rated highest for growth prospects in 2025-2026.
Technical analysis for Vietnamese coal stocks
Technical analysis of Vietnamese coal industry stocks requires a distinct approach compared to other sectors. Data from the past 5 years shows coal stocks typically have a 7-9 month price increase cycle, followed by a 3-5 month adjustment, creating a fairly clear “two steps forward, one step back” pattern.
| Technical indicator | Reliability with coal stocks | Optimal setup | Current signal (Q2/2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moving Average (MA) | High (85%) | MA50 and MA200 | Bullish Cross (TDN, MDC); Bearish (THT) |
| Relative Strength Index (RSI) | Medium-high (75%) | RSI(14) with thresholds 40/70 | Neutral zone (45-55) |
| MACD | Medium (68%) | 12-26-9 | Weak buy signal |
| Fibonacci Retracement | High (82%) | From 2023 bottom to 2024 peak | Strong support at 0.5 level |
Analysis of data from Pocket Option shows a special phenomenon: Vietnamese coal stocks typically react 3-5 trading sessions slower after important news, creating “alpha” opportunities for investors who grasp information early. Japanese Candlestick charts with “Hammer” and “Engulfing” patterns have the highest success rate – up to 76% according to Pocket Option statistics from 2020-2025.
An effective technical strategy is “Triple Confirmation” – only buying when 3 factors appear simultaneously: price line crosses above MA50, trading volume increases over 150% of the 20-session average, and RSI exceeds the 50 threshold from below. This strategy has yielded an average return of 28% over the past 12 months with coal stocks.
Investment strategies for Vietnamese coal stocks 2025-2026
2025 brings both opportunities and challenges for investors in coal industry stocks in Vietnam. Based on in-depth analysis of market trends, we propose 3 main investment strategies suitable for different investor groups.
“Sustainable Dividend” Strategy (Dividend Value)
Suitable for medium and long-term investors who prioritize stable cash flow. This strategy focuses on coal stocks with a history of regular dividend payments with dividend yields >6% and payout ratios <65% (ensuring sustainability). In Vietnam, TDN and MDC codes meet these criteria well, with a continuous 7-year dividend payment history.
| Selection criteria | Minimum threshold | Pocket Option recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| Dividend yield | >6% | TDN (7.5%), MDC (8.1%) |
| Payment history | ≥5 consecutive years | TDN (7 years), TC6 (6 years) |
| Debt/equity ratio | < 1.2 | TDN (0.9), MDC (1.1) |
| Price volatility (Beta) | < 1.0 | TDN (0.85), THT (0.92) |
| Liquidity | >100,000 shares/day | TDN, TC6, MDC |
Pocket Option recommends allocating 60-70% of portfolios to 2-3 coal stocks that meet all the above criteria, buying using the dollar-cost averaging method (DCA) over 6 months, especially taking advantage of corrections >10% to increase positions. This strategy has yielded average compound returns (dividends + price appreciation) of 15-18%/year during the 2020-2024 period.
“Sector Rotation” Strategy
This strategy is suitable for flexible investors with knowledge of economic cycles. Historical data shows coal stocks typically outperform during early economic recovery cycle phases (first 6-9 months) and during high inflation periods. With Vietnam’s economic forecast for 2025-2026 showing strong growth after recovery, this is an appropriate time to increase the proportion of coal stocks.
- Phase 1 (Q2-Q3/2025): Focus 40-50% of portfolio on coal stocks when GDP growth >6.5% and PMI >52
- Phase 2 (Q4/2025): Reduce proportion to 20-30% when signs of slowing growth appear
- Phase 3 (Q1-Q2/2026): Switch to defensive sectors if GDP forecast <6% and interest rates increase
- Phase 4 (Q3-Q4/2026): Return to coal stocks if new economic stimulus packages emerge
Pocket Option provides an exclusive “Sector Rotation Scanner” tool that automatically alerts when coal stocks enter a high-performance phase in the economic cycle. This strategy has yielded an average return of 32% during the 2021-2024 period, 9.5% higher than traditional buy and hold strategies.
Risk analysis and prevention strategies
Investing in coal industry stocks in Vietnam harbors many specific risks that investors need to understand clearly and have effective prevention strategies for. The latest Pocket Option survey of 1,200 investors shows 68% of investors underestimate policy risk – a factor that can change suddenly and strongly impact coal stocks.
| Risk type | Probability (2025-2026) | Impact level | Prevention strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| New environmental policies | High (75%) | Medium-High | Portfolio diversification, prioritize companies with clean technology |
| Carbon tax | Certain (>90%) | High | Choose companies with specific emission reduction plans |
| Reduced coal proportion in Power Development Plan IX | Medium (50-60%) | Very high | Establish stop-loss, limit long-term investments >5 years |
| Increasing extraction costs | High (70-80%) | Medium | Prioritize companies with open-pit mines, advanced technology |
| Competition from LNG and renewable energy | Certain (100%) | Medium-high | Invest in coal companies diversifying into new energy |
An effective risk prevention strategy developed by Pocket Option experts is “3-Layer Protection”. This strategy consists of 3 protection layers: (1) Diversified asset allocation (maximum 30% in coal stocks), (2) Combining coal stocks with renewable energy stocks in a 6:4 ratio, and (3) Setting dynamic stop-loss at -15% or below the MA100 line.
Smart investors should also closely monitor early warning indicators such as: changes in Power Development Plan consultation reports, movements of large investment funds, and M&A transactions in the industry. Pocket Option provides real-time early warning services, helping investors adjust strategies promptly before the market reacts strongly.
Development trends of Vietnamese coal stocks during 2025-2030
Looking at the next 5 years, Vietnamese coal industry stocks face many important changes. Based on in-depth analysis from Pocket Option’s research group and leading coal industry expert opinions, we identify 5 main trends that will shape the future of Vietnamese coal stocks.
| Trend | Timeline | Impact on investors | Benefiting stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coal industry restructuring | 2025-2027 | Positive for large, strong companies | TDN, TC6 |
| Clean technology transition | 2025-2028 | Opportunities for companies investing early in CCUS | MDC, TC6 |
| Expansion into mineral value chains | 2026-2030 | Diversification of revenue sources, risk reduction | TDN, THT |
| ASEAN coal market integration | 2027-2030 | Increased export market share, improved pricing | TC6, MDC |
| Development of “Coal+Renewables” model | 2025-2030 | More sustainable business model | TDN, MDC |
The most prominent trend is the “Coal+Renewables” business model – as large coal companies in Vietnam are gradually transitioning to renewable energy investments alongside coal mining activities. TDN has announced plans to invest 250 billion VND in solar energy in 2025-2026, while MDC is developing a 50MW wind power project in Quang Ninh.
Pocket Option predicts that by 2030, at least 40% of revenue from Vietnam’s leading coal companies will come from non-coal sources. This is both a challenge and an opportunity for long-term investors. Pocket Option’s “Green Coal Transition” strategy recommends investing in coal companies with clear and feasible transition plans, while having strong financial capacity to implement the transition.
Lessons from successful investors in Vietnamese coal stocks
Pocket Option’s research with 50 investors achieving >25%/year returns from coal stocks for 3 consecutive years has drawn valuable lessons. Below are 5 common strategies applied by most successful investors.
Mr. Nguyen Minh T., a coal stock investor with 15 years of experience, shares: “I never buy coal stocks when everyone is optimistic about the industry, and don’t sell when everyone is pessimistic. In 2022, when coal stock prices fell 30% due to concerns about environmental policies, I accumulated TDN at an average price of only 60% of the current price. The secret is to understand the industry cycle and selectively go against the crowd.”
- Principle 1: Invest against the trend when valuations drop excessively due to psychological factors (P/E <7, P/B <1.0)
- Principle 2: Allocate capital in 3 phases when accumulating, avoid putting all money in at one time
- Principle 3: Closely combine fundamental analysis and technical analysis before making decisions
- Principle 4: Diversify within the industry (open-pit mining, underground mining, coal logistics)
- Principle 5: Set target profit levels and adhere to profit-taking discipline
Ms. Tran Thu H., portfolio manager at a leading securities company, emphasizes: “Many coal stock investors fail because they don’t understand the industry’s ‘double cycle’ characteristic – both having a seasonal cycle (Q2-3 usually increases strongly due to high electricity demand) and a long-term 3-5 year cycle following the power industry investment cycle. Smart investors must understand both cycles and have appropriate strategies.”
Pocket Option has developed the “Coal Stock Opportunity Score” model based on successful investors’ experiences. This model evaluates coal stock investment opportunities based on 15 technical and fundamental criteria, helping investors identify optimal times to buy or sell.
Conclusion: Optimal strategy for Vietnamese coal stock investors in 2025
Vietnamese coal industry stocks are at an important transition stage, bringing both great opportunities and significant challenges for investors. The national energy transition process will reshape the entire industry, creating clear winners and losers among companies.
Based on comprehensive market analysis, we propose the “Hybrid Investment” strategy for Vietnamese coal stock investors in 2025: (1) Allocate 40-50% to 2-3 leading coal stocks with clear transition strategies (TDN, MDC), (2) Keep 20-30% cash to take advantage of correction opportunities, and (3) Allocate 20-30% to renewable energy/LNG stocks to balance risk.
Pocket Option provides comprehensive in-depth analysis tools, market data, and evaluation models for Vietnamese coal stocks, supporting investors in building effective investment strategies. With growth potential of 18-25% in 2025 (according to Pocket Option expert forecasts), coal stocks remain an attractive investment channel for smart and strategic investors.
Remember that success in coal stock investment comes not only from choosing the right stocks, but also from understanding industry trends, managing risk effectively, and having discipline in implementing investment strategies. With support from Pocket Option and the analyses in this article, you are ready to confidently embark on your Vietnamese coal stock investment journey in 2025.
FAQ
Which coal industry stocks have the most potential in Vietnam in 2025?
Based on financial analysis and development prospects, the most promising coal stocks in Vietnam in 2025 are TDN (Deo Nai Coal) and MDC (Mong Duong Coal). TDN stands out with its high dividend yield of 7.5%, diversification strategy into renewable energy, and a 250 billion VND clean technology investment project. MDC has the advantage of high-quality coal reserves, a low P/E ratio (7.8), and a healthy financial situation with a debt/equity ratio of just 1.1.
How to properly evaluate coal stock values in the face of pressure from green energy transition?
To accurately assess coal stock values in the context of energy transition, investors need to combine 3 methods: (1) DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) method with scenarios of gradually declining coal revenue from 2030, (2) Assessment of ability to transition to new business models through the Green Transition Score, and (3) Analysis of tangible assets (land, mineral reserves) that can be exploited for other purposes. Pocket Option provides a "Valuation Stress Test" tool that helps simulate coal stock values under different policy scenarios.
What is the most effective risk prevention strategy for investment portfolios containing coal stocks?
The "3-Layer Protection" risk prevention strategy is currently recommended by Pocket Option experts: (1) Limiting coal stock proportion to maximum 30% of total portfolio, (2) Diversification within the industry with companies having different business models (extraction, logistics, deep processing), and (3) Combining with renewable energy stocks in a 6:4 ratio to offset policy risks. Particularly important is establishing dynamic stop-loss at -15% or when the price breaks the MA100 line, and closely monitoring early warning indicators about policy changes.
What tools does Pocket Option provide to help effectively invest in Vietnamese coal stocks?
Pocket Option provides a specialized ecosystem of tools for coal stock investment including: (1) "Coal Stock Health Radar" - analyzing financial health of coal companies based on 15 important indicators, (2) "Sector Rotation Scanner" - identifying optimal times to invest in coal stocks according to economic cycles, (3) "Valuation Stress Test" - simulating coal stock values under different policy scenarios, (4) "Coal Stock Opportunity Score" - evaluating investment opportunities based on 15 technical and fundamental criteria, and (5) Real-time policy change alert system.
What is the forecast for Vietnamese coal industry stock price trends until 2030?
Based on in-depth analysis, Pocket Option forecasts that Vietnamese coal industry stocks will go through 3 phases until 2030: (1) Growth phase 2025-2027 with potential profits of 18-25% thanks to high electricity demand and favorable Power Development Plan VIII policies, (2) Volatility phase 2027-2028 when carbon taxes and new environmental regulations are applied, creating strong differentiation in the industry, and (3) Restructuring phase 2028-2030 when only companies successfully transitioning to the "Coal+Renewables" model will maintain growth. Large coal companies with strong financial capacity and clear transition strategies like TDN and MDC have the potential to grow 50-70% in value over the next 5 years.