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Why Vinamilk's Stock Is Falling Sharply

Trading
07 April 2025
4 min to read
Why Vinamilk’s Stock Is Falling Sharply: In-Depth Analysis for Vietnamese Investors

Are you holding VNM shares or considering investing in Vinamilk? This article clearly explains why Vinamilk's stock has fallen sharply recently, helping you make informed decisions based on actual data and market trends in Vietnam.

Financial Pressure from Declining Business Results

2024 and early 2025 witnessed a clear decline in Vinamilk’s after-tax profit. According to the Q4/2024 report, net revenue decreased by nearly 5% compared to the same period, while raw material costs increased significantly due to fluctuations in imported milk powder prices.

This has led many investors to ask: why is Vinamilk’s stock falling sharply despite the company maintaining a large market share? The answer lies in the change in gross profit margin — a core factor affecting stock valuation.

Indicator Q4/2023 Q4/2024
Net Revenue 14,500 billion 13,780 billion
After-tax Profit 2,300 billion 1,650 billion
Gross Profit Margin 44% 38%

Changing Preferences of Individual and Institutional Investors

The Vietnamese stock market during 2023-2025 is shifting strongly toward fast-growing stocks, especially in technology, real estate, and renewable energy. VNM stock, with its stable but slow-growth business model, is gradually losing its appeal.

Comparison of Investment Cash Flow by Industry Group

Industry New Capital Attraction Rate 2024
Food Processing (Vinamilk) 6%
Technology 28%
Energy 17%
Real Estate 21%

Market Expectations Too High?

Vinamilk was once considered a “national stock.” However, when the company failed to maintain a compound growth rate of over 10% each year — meaning both profit and revenue increasing steadily year after year, investors began to adjust their expectations, leading to disappointment and selling off by long-term investors.

Domestic and International Competitive Pressure

Vinamilk’s market share is being divided by competitors such as TH True Milk, Nutifood, and some foreign brands. Competition is not only about price but also about “green” and “vegan” consumption trends — which Vinamilk has not caught up with quickly enough.

  • Organic products account for a small proportion
  • Higher prices than domestic competitors
  • Marketing campaigns have not created breakthroughs

Vinamilk Stock Forecast for 2025: Continued Volatility?

The question is: what will the Vinamilk stock forecast be for the coming year? Most experts believe the stock will continue to fluctuate around the bottom if there are no significant strategy changes from the leadership.

3 Factors to Monitor:

  • Plans to expand into foreign markets
  • Effectiveness of operational cost reductions
  • Ability to innovate products according to Gen Z needs
Scenario VNM Target Price Probability
Strong recovery due to exports 95,000 VND 20%
Stable, slight increase 78,000 VND 50%
Continued decline 63,000 VND 30%

Why VNM Stock Is Falling Sharply: The Importance of Quantitative Analysis

When investigating why VNM stock is falling sharply, investors need to learn how to read financial reports, analyze P/E and PEG, and compare with industry competitors. These are skills that help limit risk and make rational decisions rather than acting on emotions.

Comparison of Vinamilk’s Valuation Ratios with Competitors

Company P/E PEG
Vinamilk (VNM) 16.2 2.8
Nutifood 13.5 1.9
Moc Chau Milk 14.7 2.1

Risk Prevention Strategies for Retail Investors

Instead of waiting for the market to reverse course, you should build a clear capital allocation strategy. In the context of Vinamilk’s stock falling sharply, individual investors should determine their investment objectives (income, growth, capital preservation) and from there choose the right time to buy and sell.

  • Avoid dollar-cost averaging when the trend is still negative
  • Don’t “hold losses” exceeding 10-15%
  • Always monitor price action and institutional money flow

How Pocket Option Helps Investors Monitor VNM Stock

The Pocket Option platform allows you to access real-time data on VNM stock, use advanced technical charts and automated trading signals. You can also practice on a demo account before investing for real.

Feature Benefit
Market Signals Supports accurate buy/sell points
Technical Charts Analyzes trends and important price zones
Demo Account Tests strategies without risk
Start trading

Conclusion

In a volatile market environment, understanding why Vinamilk’s stock is falling sharply is essential to making smart investment decisions. There is no fixed solution for the future of VNM, but if you rely on data, objective analysis, and use tools like Pocket Option, you can better control risk and exploit opportunities flexibly.

FAQ

Why has Vinamilk's stock fallen sharply in 2024?

The main reasons are declining profits, reduced profit margins, and cash flow shifting away from the slow-growth consumer sector.

Does VNM stock still have long-term potential?

Potential remains if Vinamilk restructures its strategy, innovates its products, and expands into international markets.

Should I buy more VNM while prices are falling?

Don't act hastily. Wait for confirmation of a recovery trend or split your capital for long-term dollar-cost averaging.

Does Pocket Option support Vietnamese stock analysis?

Yes. Pocket Option provides technical charts, buy-sell signals, and demo accounts to practice before investing.

What is the forecast for Vinamilk's stock in 2025?

A slight increase is possible if business results improve, but risks remain without clear changes in strategy.