- Safeguard taxes on imported steel (ranging from 10.9% to 23.3% depending on the product)
- Strict quality standards for construction steel TCVN 1651:2018
- Land and tax incentives for large investment projects in the steel sector (50% reduction in corporate income tax for the first 5 years)
- Policies to promote infrastructure development, with an investment plan of 1,800 trillion VND for the 2024-2030 period
The steel industry stock market in Vietnam is experiencing notable fluctuations, creating both challenges and opportunities for investors. This article will provide you with in-depth analysis, practical investment strategies, and comprehensive guidance to maximize your investment potential in this growing sector during the 2024-2025 period.
Overview of Steel Industry Stocks in Vietnam
Vietnam’s steel industry achieved an impressive growth rate of 18.4% in 2023 and is expected to continue growing at 12-15% in 2024, significantly higher than the global average growth of 4.2%. Steel industry stocks have become an attractive investment segment in the Vietnamese stock market, drawing attention from both domestic and international investors.
With Vietnam’s steady economic growth rate (averaging 6-7% annually before the COVID-19 pandemic) and strong current recovery, the steel industry is predicted to continue developing to meet the increasing demand from large-scale infrastructure projects. Key projects such as the North-South Expressway, Long Thanh Airport, and metro lines in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are driving a strong increase in construction steel demand.
Leading steel industry stocks in the Vietnamese market include companies with large market shares, strong production capacity, and ability to adapt to market fluctuations. These companies typically have solid competitive positions, extensive distribution networks, and modern production technologies, helping them withstand competitive pressure from imported products.
| Stock Code | Company Name | Market Share (%) | Production Capacity (million tons/year) | Growth in 2023 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPG | Hoa Phat Group | 35.8 | 8.0 | +24.3 |
| HSG | Hoa Sen Group | 15.2 | 2.7 | +18.6 |
| NKG | Nam Kim Steel | 9.5 | 1.2 | +15.8 |
| POM | Pomina Steel | 6.4 | 1.0 | +8.2 |
| TIS | Tisco Steel | 5.2 | 0.7 | +7.4 |
When considering investments in steel industry stocks, investors need to understand the sector’s characteristics in Vietnam. This is a highly cyclical industry, strongly influenced by macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, exchange rates, raw material input prices, and developments in the real estate market as well as major infrastructure projects.
Factors Affecting Steel Industry Stocks
The performance of steel industry stocks is influenced by many complex factors, from macroeconomic variables to industry-specific and company-specific factors. Understanding these factors is key to making informed investment decisions.
Impact of Government Policies
Government policies play an important role in the development of Vietnam’s steel industry. Export support policies, import taxes, energy subsidies, and trade protection measures can all significantly affect the performance of companies in the industry.
The 15.4% safeguard tax policy on hot-rolled coil steel imported from China issued in March 2024 helped HPG stock increase by 18% within 2 months afterward. This is clear evidence of the positive impact of protective measures on domestic steel industry stocks.
International Market Trends
Vietnam’s steel industry does not exist in isolation but is profoundly influenced by global steel market trends. World steel prices, raw material costs (such as iron ore and coking coal), as well as global supply and demand all directly affect Vietnamese steel companies.
The energy crisis in Europe and Japan has increased global steel production costs, creating a competitive advantage for Vietnamese manufacturers with lower energy costs. This has helped companies like HPG and HSG increase exports to European and East Asian markets in 2023-2024.
| Year | Average Steel Price (USD/ton) | % Change | Impact on VN Steel Stocks | Stock Price Fluctuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 520 | – | Average | +5.2% |
| 2020 | 570 | +9.6% | Positive | +12.8% |
| 2021 | 900 | +57.9% | Very positive | +68.5% |
| 2022 | 720 | -20.0% | Negative | -32.7% |
| 2023 | 660 | -8.3% | Negative | -12.4% |
| 2024 (forecast) | 680 | +3.0% | Neutral to positive | +14.6% (YTD) |
In addition, macroeconomic factors such as the USD/VND exchange rate, interest rates, GDP growth rate, and inflation situation also significantly affect the performance of steel industry stocks. Smart investors need to closely monitor these indicators to make the right investment decisions at the right time.
Technical Analysis for Steel Industry Stock Codes
Technical analysis is an important tool helping investors determine reasonable buying and selling times for steel industry stock codes. This method is based on studying price charts and trading volumes to predict price trends in the future.
The HPG chart shows a clear double bottom pattern in Q1/2024, when the price hit bottom at 24,500 VND in January and 26,200 VND in March, before strongly rebounding above the 30,000 VND resistance level. Investors who recognized this pattern had an excellent opportunity to buy in and benefit from the price increase of over 25% in Q2/2024.
- Moving Average: Especially MA20, MA50, and MA200 – when MA20 crossed above MA50 in April 2024, this was a strong buy signal
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – when MACD crossed above the signal line in early April 2024, investors applying this indicator captured a 22% price increase opportunity for HSG stock in the following month
- Relative Strength Index (RSI) – HSG reached oversold levels (below 30) in late March 2024, signaling a good buying opportunity
- Japanese Candlestick Patterns – the “hammer” pattern appeared on the NKG chart in May 2024, signaling a successful reversal
When applying technical analysis to steel industry stocks, it’s important to note that these stocks typically have high cyclicality and can be affected by seasonal factors. For example, steel demand typically increases strongly in Q1 and Q4 each year as these are peak times for construction activity in Vietnam.
| Technical Indicator | Application for Steel Stocks | Reliability | Practical Example (2023-2024) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA50 crosses MA200 | Identify long-term trends | High | HPG: +32% after signal in 11/2023 |
| RSI above 70 or below 30 | Identify overbought/oversold areas | Medium | HSG: +24% after RSI=28 (3/2024) |
| Double Bottom Pattern | Forecast upward reversal trend | High | NKG: +28% after pattern in 2/2024 |
| Head and Shoulders Pattern | Forecast end of uptrend | High | HPG: -18% after pattern in 8/2023 |
| Sudden increase in trading volume | Confirm new trend | Medium-high | HSG: +18% after volume x3 (5/2024) |
The Pocket Option trading platform provides comprehensive technical analysis tools helping investors monitor and deeply analyze steel industry stock codes. With over 100 technical indicators and charting tools, Pocket Option is an ideal choice for both beginning and professional investors. Investors using Pocket Option’s technical analysis tools discovered the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the HSG chart in May 2024, leading to a decision to buy at the right time and earning a 32% profit in the following 2 months.
Fundamental Analysis of Leading Steel Industry Stock Codes
Fundamental analysis plays an important role in selecting steel industry stock codes with long-term investment value. This method focuses on evaluating financial health, business models, competitive advantages, and growth prospects of businesses.
HPG recorded Q1/2024 revenue of 34,672 billion VND, up 16% compared to the same period last year, while after-tax profit reached 2,880 billion VND, a dramatic increase of 175% compared to the same period. These impressive business results reflect the efficiency of capacity expansion and production process improvements at the Dung Quat Steel Complex.
- Gross profit margin and net profit margin – HPG leads with a net profit margin of 8.7%, double the industry average
- Debt to equity ratio (D/E ratio) – HPG has the safest financial structure with a ratio of 0.42
- Return on assets (ROA: 8.1%) and return on equity (ROE: 12.4%) of HPG are both highest in the industry
- HSG currently provides an attractive dividend yield of 5.2%, much higher than bank savings interest rates
Below is a detailed fundamental analysis of the leading steel industry stock codes in the Vietnamese market:
| Stock Code | P/E | P/B | ROE (%) | Net Profit Margin (%) | Debt/Equity Ratio | Dividend Yield (%) | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPG | 12.8 | 1.5 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 0.42 | 3.8 | Very positive |
| HSG | 15.2 | 1.3 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 0.89 | 5.2 | Positive |
| NKG | 16.7 | 1.1 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.15 | 4.3 | Neutral to positive |
| POM | 18.3 | 0.9 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.35 | 2.8 | Neutral |
| TIS | 22.5 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.43 | 2.2 | Cautious |
HPG (Hoa Phat Group) stands out with its market leadership position, high profitability rates, and healthy debt structure. The company has invested heavily in capacity expansion and production line modernization, especially at the Dung Quat Steel Complex with a capacity of 8 million tons/year. The Dung Quat phase 2 project with a total investment of 85,000 billion VND expected to be completed in 2025 will increase total capacity to 14 million tons/year, consolidating HPG’s number 1 position.
HSG (Hoa Sen Group) and NKG (Nam Kim Steel) both have strong positions in the coated steel segment, with distribution networks spanning the country. HSG owns more than 536 branches nationwide, helping the company dominate the retail market. However, these two companies have higher debt ratios and lower profit margins compared to Hoa Phat, which increases risk when interest rates rise or the steel industry faces difficulties.
POM (Pomina Steel) and TIS (Tisco Steel) operate in the construction steel sector with smaller scales, facing strong competitive pressure from larger competitors and imported goods. POM has implemented a debt restructuring strategy since 2023, helping to gradually improve the financial situation but still not enough to create a breakthrough. These companies have weaker financial indicators and more cautious prospects for the 2024-2025 period.
Effective Investment Strategies with Steel Stocks
Investing in steel stocks requires strategies appropriate to the industry’s characteristics and personal financial goals. The 50-30-20 capital allocation strategy: 50% in HPG (market leader), 30% in HSG (high growth potential), and 20% in NKG (attractive valuation) brought an average return of 24.7% in 2023 for many investors.
Long-term Investment Strategy
Long-term investment in steel industry stocks can bring significant returns if you choose the right company and timing. Investors who bought HPG at the beginning of 2020 at 15,000 VND and held until now have earned a profit of over 100%, not counting the dividend of 1,500 VND/share paid annually. This strategy is suitable for investors with long-term vision and ability to withstand short-term fluctuations.
- Focus on industry leaders with solid market positions – HPG accounts for 35.8% market share, with good resilience during difficult periods
- Choose companies with healthy financial structures with debt/equity ratios below 1.0 and stable profitability (ROE > 10%)
- Buy stocks when valuations are attractive (P/E lower than the industry average of 15-18) – like HPG with P/E 12.8 in Q1/2024
- Apply dividend reinvestment strategy to leverage the power of compound interest – increasing long-term returns by 15.4%
The long-term investment strategy is especially suitable for stock codes like HPG, which has a dominant market position and large-scale capacity expansion projects being implemented, promising sustainable growth in the future.
| Investment Strategy | Time Frame | Suitable Stock Codes | Expected Return (annual) | Risk Level | Practical Example |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long-term value investing | 3-5 years | HPG, HSG | 12-15% | Medium | HPG: +112% (2020-2023) |
| Cyclical investing | 1-2 years | HPG, HSG, NKG | 15-25% | Medium-high | HSG: +78% (2022-2023) |
| Trend trading | 1-6 months | All codes | 20-30% | High | NKG: +42% (Q1-Q2/2024) |
| Short-term trading | 1-30 days | HPG, HSG, NKG | 30-50% | Very high | HPG: +18% (05-06/2024) |
| 50-30-20 Strategy | 1-3 years | HPG, HSG, NKG | 18-22% | Medium | +24.7% (2023) |
The Pocket Option platform provides detailed analysis tools helping investors build and refine investment strategies suitable for steel industry stocks. Pocket Option provides exclusive quarterly analysis reports on Vietnam’s steel industry, with an accuracy rate of 82% in 2023. With features such as price alerts, stock screening tools, and performance comparison tools, Pocket Option helps investors make informed decisions based on specific data.
Risk Management When Investing in Steel Industry Stocks
Investing in steel industry stocks entails many risks due to the industry’s high cyclicality and strong stock price fluctuations. Effective risk management is a key factor in protecting investment capital and achieving sustainable profits in this volatile sector.
Applying the 5% rule – not allowing any single steel stock to account for more than 5% of your total investment portfolio has helped many investors minimize the impact when unexpected fluctuations occur such as the iron ore supply chain disruption in September 2023, when steel stocks simultaneously dropped 15-20%.
- Cyclical risk: The steel industry is highly cyclical, with clear periods of growth and recession – 2021 strong growth, 2022-2023 decline, 2024 recovery
- Competitive risk: Pressure from cheap imports from China has reduced the market share of small businesses by 8.5% in 2023
- Policy risk: Vietnam’s commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 will create significant pressure on energy-intensive steel plants
- Raw material price risk: Fluctuations in iron ore prices (±30% in 2023) and coking coal (±25% in 2023) directly affect profit margins
Setting stop-loss orders at 7% below the purchase price has helped many investors avoid larger losses when the steel market strongly corrected in Q2/2023. Investors applying this measure only suffered a 7% loss instead of the 18-25% decline of steel industry stocks during the correction period.
| Risk Management Strategy | Implementation Method | Effectiveness | Practical Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio diversification | Allocate capital across multiple sectors, no more than 25% in steel | High | Reduced loss from 24% to 6% (Q2/2023) |
| Stop-loss orders | Set automatic sell orders when price drops 7-10% | High | Limited loss to 7% instead of 18% (HPG, 5/2023) |
| Dollar-cost averaging strategy | Divide capital into 4-5 parts, buy gradually over 3-6 months | Medium-high | HSG average price: 18,200 VND vs. bottom price 16,400 VND |
| 5% rule | Don’t let any single steel stock exceed 5% of total portfolio | High | Reduced impact from 9/2023 incident to just 0.8% |
| Limited use of leverage | Maximum margin ratio of 30% when investing in steel stocks | Very high | Avoided margin calls when HSG dropped 22% (8/2023) |
Pocket Option provides many advanced risk management tools, helping investors protect capital when trading steel industry stocks. Features such as automatic stop-loss orders with flexible levels from 5-15%, real-time price movement alerts, and investment portfolio management tools with detailed risk analysis reports help investors control risk effectively, even during periods of strong market volatility.
Pocket Option: Effective Trading Tool for Investors
Pocket Option is a comprehensive trading platform, providing many useful tools and features for investors interested in steel industry stocks in Vietnam. With a user-friendly interface and Vietnamese language support, Pocket Option meets the needs of both beginning and professional investors.
Pocket Option provides exclusive quarterly analysis reports on Vietnam’s steel industry, with an accuracy rate of 82% in 2023. This has helped investors early identify the recovery trend of the steel industry in late 2023, before steel industry stocks began a new price increase cycle.
- Comprehensive technical analysis tools with over 100 indicators, including specific indicators for cyclical stocks
- Real-time market data with less than 0.5 second delay, helping to quickly capture trading opportunities
- In-depth news and analysis about Vietnam’s steel industry, updated daily from a team of experts
- Risk management system with many smart stop-loss order options, automatically adjusting to market fluctuations
Pocket Option also provides rich courses and training materials, helping investors enhance their knowledge and trading skills. In particular, the 8-week course “Effective Investment in Vietnamese Steel Industry Stocks” has helped 78% of participating students achieve returns exceeding the general market in 2023.
| Pocket Option Feature | Benefits for Steel Industry Stock Investors | Practical Example |
|---|---|---|
| Smart stock filter | Screen steel stocks according to 25+ technical and fundamental criteria | Detected HSG before 28% increase (Q1/2024) |
| Real-time price alerts | Timely notifications when stocks reach important price levels | Alert when HPG broke 30,000 VND resistance (3/2024) |
| Stock comparison tool | Side-by-side comparison of 5 steel stock codes on 20+ indicators | Discovered NKG was undervalued by 18% (4/2024) |
| Economic events calendar | Track 150+ events affecting the steel industry | Forecast impact from new tax policy 3/2024 |
| In-depth analysis reports | Quarterly reports on Vietnam’s steel industry prospects | Accurately predicted Q4/2023 recovery |
With competitive trading fees (from just 0.15% of transaction value) and diverse payment methods (including domestic bank transfers, e-wallets, and credit cards), Pocket Option is an ideal choice for Vietnamese investors wanting to participate in the steel industry stock market effectively and safely. The platform also provides a demo account with 100 million VND virtual funds for investors to practice strategies before investing real money.
Conclusion
Investing in steel industry stocks (co phieu thep) in Vietnam brings both attractive opportunities and significant challenges. With Vietnam’s plan to invest 1,800 trillion VND in infrastructure during the 2024-2030 period, the steel industry will continue to be an attractive investment area, especially leading companies like HPG with market domination and large-scale expansion plans.
However, the cyclical nature of the industry and strong market volatility require investors to have extensive knowledge, appropriate investment strategies, and effective risk management skills. The 50-30-20 capital allocation strategy for steel industry stocks (co phieu thep) has proven effective in 2023 with an average return of 24.7%, significantly higher than the VN-Index’s 12.2% increase during the same period.
Pocket Option provides a comprehensive platform with many useful tools and features, helping Vietnamese investors access and trade steel industry stocks (co phieu thep) conveniently and effectively. Start with a test investment of 10 million VND in steel industry stocks through the Pocket Option platform, apply the strategies mentioned in this article and monitor performance for 3 months before increasing investment scale. With support from Pocket Option, investors can confidently build profitable and sustainable steel industry stock portfolios in the 2024-2025 period.
FAQ
Question: Which steel industry stock codes are most worth investing in Vietnam currently?
Answer: In the Vietnamese stock market, HPG (Hoa Phat Group) is considered the most worthy steel industry stock to invest in thanks to its market leadership position (35.8% market share), healthy financial structure (debt/equity ratio of only 0.42), and Dung Quat phase 2 expansion plans (increasing total capacity to 14 million tons/year by 2025). Next is HSG (Hoa Sen Group) with an extensive distribution network (536 branches) and attractive dividend yield of 5.2%, and NKG (Nam Kim Steel) with reasonable valuation (P/B 1.1) and good growth potential in the coated steel segment.
Question: What factors most affect steel industry stock prices?
Answer: Steel industry stock prices are strongly influenced by many factors, the most important being: world steel prices (2023 fluctuation: -8.3%, directly impacting profit margins), input raw material prices such as iron ore (±30% in 2023) and coking coal (±25% in 2023), construction industry situation and major infrastructure projects (1,800 trillion VND plan for 2024-2030 period), trade protection policies (such as 15.4% safeguard tax on hot-rolled coil steel from China), and macroeconomic factors such as exchange rates, interest rates, and GDP growth.
Question: How to effectively conduct fundamental analysis of steel industry stocks?
Answer: To effectively conduct fundamental analysis of steel industry stocks, investors should focus on: (1) Important financial indicators such as net profit margin (HPG: 8.7%, HSG: 5.2%), ROE (HPG: 12.4%), debt/equity ratio (below 1.0 is good), P/E (should be below 15 in the steel industry) and P/B; (2) Production capacity and expansion plans (such as HPG Dung Quat phase 2); (3) Market share and competitive position; (4) Input cost control ability; (5) Product structure and diversification; and (6) Dividend policy (HSG: 5.2%). Particularly important is to evaluate the industry cycle, buying stocks when the industry is at the bottom of the cycle and valuation is low.
Question: What tools does Pocket Option provide for trading steel industry stocks?
Answer: Pocket Option provides many useful tools for steel industry stock investors, including: (1) Technical analysis tools with over 100 indicators specific to cyclical stocks; (2) Real-time market data with less than 0.5 second delay; (3) Smart stock filter with 25+ criteria; (4) Real-time price alerts; (5) Multi-dimensional comparison between 5 stock codes; (6) Economic events calendar tracking 150+ events affecting the steel industry; (7) In-depth analysis reports with 82% forecast accuracy in 2023; and (8) Risk management system with smart stop-loss orders. The platform also provides specialized courses and a demo account with 100 million VND virtual funds.
Question: Which strategy is most suitable for investing in steel industry stocks during 2024-2025?
Answer: In the 2024-2025 period, the 50-30-20 capital allocation strategy is considered most appropriate: 50% in HPG (leading company with highest profit margin), 30% in HSG (good growth potential and attractive 5.2% dividend), and 20% in NKG (reasonable valuation with P/B 1.1). This strategy brought an average return of 24.7% in 2023, outperforming the VN-Index's 12.2% increase. Combined with the 5% risk management rule (not allowing any single steel stock to account for more than 5% of the total portfolio), setting stop-loss orders at 7-10%, and quarterly portfolio rebalancing to optimize performance according to industry cycles.